An Empirical Study of the Mixture of Time and Movements in Prices

This paper investigates the persistent pattern in the Helsinki Exchanges. The persistent pattern is analyzed using a time and a price approach. It is hypothesized that arrival times are related to movements in prices. Thus, the arrival times are defined as durations and formulated as an Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model as in Engle and Russell (1998). The prices are defined as price changes and formulated as a GARCH process including duration measures. The research question follows from market microstructure predictions about price intensities defined as time between price changes. The microstructure theory states that long transaction durations might be associated with both no news and bad news. Accordingly, short durations would be related to high volatility and long durations to low volatility. As a result, the spread will tend to be larger under intensive moments. The main findings of this study are 1) arrival times are positively autocorrelated and 2) long durations are associated with low volatility in the market.

Nonlinear mixture autoregressive model: economic applications

The aim of this dissertation is to model economic variables by a mixture autoregressive (MAR) model. The MAR model is a generalization of linear autoregressive (AR) model. The MAR -model consists of K linear autoregressive components. At any given point of time one of these autoregressive components is randomly selected to generate a new observation for the time series. The mixture probability can be constant over time or a direct function of a some observable variable. Many economic time series contain properties which cannot be described by linear and stationary time series models. A nonlinear autoregressive model such as MAR model can a plausible alternative in the case of these time series. In this dissertation the MAR model is used to model stock market bubbles and a relationship between inflation and the interest rate. In the case of the inflation rate we arrived at the MAR model where inflation process is less mean reverting in the case of high inflation than in the case of normal inflation. The interest rate move one-for-one with expected inflation. We use the data from the Livingston survey as a proxy for inflation expectations. We have found that survey inflation expectations are not perfectly rational. According to our results information stickiness play an important role in the expectation formation. We also found that survey participants have a tendency to underestimate inflation. A MAR model has also used to model stock market bubbles and crashes. This model has two regimes: the bubble regime and the error correction regime. In the error correction regime price depends on a fundamental factor, the price-dividend ratio, and in the bubble regime, price is independent of fundamentals. In this model a stock market crash is usually caused by a regime switch from a bubble regime to an error-correction regime. According to our empirical results bubbles are related to a low inflation. Our model also imply that bubbles have influences investment return distribution in both short and long run.

Zebrafish as a model of Parkinson's disease

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is the second most common neurodegenerative disease among the elderly. Its etiology is unknown and no disease-modifying drugs are available. Thus, more information concerning its pathogenesis is needed. Among other genes, mutated PTEN-induced kinase 1 (PINK1) has been linked to early-onset and sporadic PD, but its mode of action is poorly understood. Most animal models of PD are based on the use of the neurotoxin 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP). MPTP is metabolized to MPP+ by monoamine oxidase B (MAO B) and causes cell death of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra in mammals. Zebrafish has been a widely used model organism in developmental biology, but is now emerging as a model for human diseases due to its ideal combination of properties. Zebrafish are inexpensive and easy to maintain, develop rapidly, breed in large quantities producing transparent embryos, and are readily manipulated by various methods, particularly genetic ones. In addition, zebrafish are vertebrate animals and results derived from zebrafish may be more applicable to mammals than results from invertebrate genetic models such as Drosophila melanogaster and Caenorhabditis elegans. However, the similarity cannot be taken for granted. The aim of this study was to establish and test a PD model using larval zebrafish. The developing monoaminergic neuronal systems of larval zebrafish were investigated. We identified and classified 17 catecholaminergic and 9 serotonergic neuron populations in the zebrafish brain. A 3-dimensional atlas was created to facilitate future research. Only one gene encoding MAO was found in the zebrafish genome. Zebrafish MAO showed MAO A-type substrate specificity, but non-A-non-B inhibitor specificity. Distribution of MAO in larval and adult zebrafish brains was both diffuse and distinctly cellular. Inhibition of MAO during larval development led to markedly elevated 5-hydroxytryptamine (serotonin, 5-HT) levels, which decreased the locomotion of the fish. MPTP exposure caused a transient loss of cells in specific aminergic cell populations and decreased locomotion. MPTP-induced changes could be rescued by the MAO B inhibitor deprenyl, suggesting a role for MAO in MPTP toxicity. MPP+ affected only one catecholaminergic cell population; thus, the action of MPP+ was more selective than that of MPTP. The zebrafish PINK1 gene was cloned in zebrafish, and morpholino oligonucleotides were used to suppress its expression in larval zebrafish. The functional domains and expression pattern of zebrafish PINK1 resembled those of other vertebrates, suggesting that zebrafish is a feasible model for studying PINK1. Translation inhibition resulted in cell loss of the same catecholaminergic cell populations as MPTP and MPP+. Inactivation of PINK1 sensitized larval zebrafish to subefficacious doses of MPTP, causing a decrease in locomotion and cell loss in one dopaminergic cell population. Zebrafish appears to be a feasible model for studying PD, since its aminergic systems, mode of action of MPTP, and functions of PINK1 resemble those of mammalians. However, the functions of zebrafish MAO differ from the two forms of MAO found in mammals. Future studies using zebrafish PD models should utilize the advantages specific to zebrafish, such as the ability to execute large-scale genetic or drug screens.

Dietary modulation of β-catenin signalling in an experimental model of colon cancer

Colorectal cancer is among the major cancers and one of the leading causes of cancer-related deaths in Western societies. Its occurrence is strongly affected by environmental factors such as diet. Thus, for preventative strategies it is vitally important to understand the mechanisms that stimulate adenoma growth and development towards accelerated malignancy or, in contrast, attenuate them to remain in quiescence for periods as long as decades. The main objective of this study was to investigate whether diet is able to modulate β-catenin signalling related to the promotion or prevention of intestinal tumourigenesis in an animal model of colon cancer, the Min/+ mouse. A series of dietary experiments with Min/+ mice were performed where fructo-oligosaccharide inulin was used for tumour promotion and four berries, bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus), lingonberry (Vaccinium vitis-idaea), cloudberry (Rubus chamaemorus) and white currant (Ribes x pallidum), were used for tumour prevention. The adenomas (Apc-/-) and surrounding normal-appearing mucosa (Apc+/-) were investigated separately due to their mutational and functional differences. Tumour promotive and preventive diets had opposite effects on β-catenin signalling in the adenomas that was related to the different adenoma growth effects of dietary inulin and berries. The levels of nuclear β-catenin and cyclin D1 combined with size of the adenomas in the treatment groups suggests that diets induced differences in the cancerous process. Adenomas progressing to malignant carcinomas are most likely found in the sub-groups having the highest levels of β-catenin. On the other hand, adenomas staying quiescent for a long period of time are most probably found in the cloudberry or white currant diet groups. The levels of membranous E-cadherin and β-catenin increased as the adenomas in the inulin diet group grew, which could be a result of the overall increase in the protein levels of the cell. Therefore, the increasing levels of membranous β-catenin in Min/+ mice adenomas would be undesirable, due to the simultaneous increase in oncogenic nuclear β-catenin. We propose that the decreased amount of membranous β-catenin in benign adenomas of berry groups also means a decrease in the nuclear pool of β-catenin. Tumour promotion, but not the tumour prevention, influenced β-catenin signalling already in the normal appearing mucosa. Inulin-induced tumour promotion was related to β-catenin signalling in Min/+ mice, and in WT mice changes were also visible. The preventative effects of berries in the initiation phase were not mediated by β-catenin signalling. Our results suggest that, in addition to the number, size, and growth rate of adenomatous polyps, the signalling pattern of the adenomas should be considered when evaluating preventative dietary strategies.

A dynamic programming model for optimising feeding and slaughter decisions regarding fattening pigs

Costs of purchasing new piglets and of feeding them until slaughter are the main variable expenditures in pig fattening. They both depend on slaughter intensity, the nature of feeding patterns and the technological constraints of pig fattening, such as genotype. Therefore, it is of interest to examine the effect of production technology and changes in input and output prices on feeding and slaughter decisions. This study examines the problem by using a dynamic programming model that links genetic characteristics of a pig to feeding decisions and the timing of slaughter and takes into account how these jointly affect the quality-adjusted value of a carcass. The model simulates the growth mechanism of a pig under optional feeding and slaughter patterns and then solves the optimal feeding and slaughter decisions recursively. The state of nature and the genotype of a pig are known in the analysis. The main contribution of this study is the dynamic approach that explicitly takes into account carcass quality while simultaneously optimising feeding and slaughter decisions. The method maximises the internal rate of return to the capacity unit. Hence, the results can have vital impact on competitiveness of pig production, which is known to be quite capital-intensive. The results suggest that producer can significantly benefit from improvements in the pig's genotype, because they improve efficiency of pig production. The annual benefits from obtaining pigs of improved genotype can be more than €20 per capacity unit. The annual net benefits of animal breeding to pig farms can also be considerable. Animals of improved genotype can reach optimal slaughter maturity quicker and produce leaner meat than animals of poor genotype. In order to fully utilise the benefits of animal breeding, the producer must adjust feeding and slaughter patterns on the basis of genotype. The results suggest that the producer can benefit from flexible feeding technology. The flexible feeding technology segregates pigs into groups according to their weight, carcass leanness, genotype and sex and thereafter optimises feeding and slaughter decisions separately for these groups. Typically, such a technology provides incentives to feed piglets with protein-rich feed such that the genetic potential to produce leaner meat is fully utilised. When the pig approaches slaughter maturity, the share of protein-rich feed in the diet gradually decreases and the amount of energy-rich feed increases. Generally, the optimal slaughter weight is within the weight range that pays the highest price per kilogram of pig meat. The optimal feeding pattern and the optimal timing of slaughter depend on price ratios. Particularly, an increase in the price of pig meat provides incentives to increase the growth rates up to the pig's biological maximum by increasing the amount of energy in the feed. Price changes and changes in slaughter premium can also have large income effects. Key words: barley, carcass composition, dynamic programming, feeding, genotypes, lean, pig fattening, precision agriculture, productivity, slaughter weight, soybeans

Lignin biosynthesis in Norway spruce: from a model system to the tree

Lignin is a hydrophobic polymer that is synthesised in the secondary cell walls of all vascular plants. It enables water conduction through the stem, supports the upright growth habit and protects against invading pathogens. In addition, lignin hinders the utilisation of the cellulosic cell walls of plants in pulp and paper industry and as forage. Lignin precursors are synthesised in the cytoplasm through the phenylpropanoid pathway, transported into the cell wall and oxidised by peroxidases or laccases to phenoxy radicals that couple to form the lignin polymer. This study was conducted to characterise the lignin biosynthetic pathway in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). We focused on the less well-known polymerisation stage, to identify the enzymes and the regulatory mechanisms that are involved. Available data for lignin biosynthesis in gymnosperms is scarce and, for example, the latest improvements in precursor biosynthesis have only been verified in herbaceous plants. Therefore, we also wanted to study in detail the roles of individual gene family members during developmental and stress-induced lignification, using EST sequencing and real-time RT-PCR. We used, as a model, a Norway spruce tissue culture line that produces extracellular lignin into the culture medium, and showed that lignin polymerisation in the tissue culture depends on peroxidase activity. We identified in the culture medium a significant NADH oxidase activity that could generate H2O2 for peroxidases. Two basic culture medium peroxidases were shown to have high affinity to coniferyl alcohol. Conservation of the putative substrate-binding amino acids was observed when the spruce peroxidase sequences were compared with other peroxidases with high affinity to coniferyl alcohol. We also used different peroxidase fractions to produce synthetic in vitro lignins from coniferyl alcohol; however, the linkage pattern of the suspension culture lignin could not be reproduced in vitro with the purified peroxidases, nor with the full complement of culture medium proteins. This emphasised the importance of the precursor radical concentration in the reaction zone, which is controlled by the cells through the secretion of both the lignin precursors and the oxidative enzymes to the apoplast. In addition, we identified basic peroxidases that were reversibly bound to the lignin precipitate. They could be involved, for example, in the oxidation of polymeric lignin, which is required for polymer growth. The dibenzodioxocin substructure was used as a marker for polymer oxidation in the in vitro polymerisation studies, as it is a typical substructure in wood lignin and in the suspension culture lignin. Using immunolocalisation, we found the structure mainly in the S2+S3 layers of the secondary cell walls of Norway spruce tracheids. The structure was primarily formed during the late phases of lignification. Contrary to the earlier assumptions, it appears to be a terminal structure in the lignin macromolecule. Most lignin biosynthetic enzymes are encoded for by several genes, all of which may not participate in lignin biosynthesis. In order to identify the gene family members that are responsible for developmental lignification, ESTs were sequenced from the lignin-forming tissue culture and developing xylem of spruce. Expression of the identified lignin biosynthetic genes was studied using real-time RT-PCR. Candidate genes for developmental lignification were identified by a coordinated, high expression of certain genes within the gene families in all lignin-forming tissues. However, such coordinated expression was not found for peroxidase genes. We also studied stress-induced lignification either during compression wood formation by bending the stems or after Heterobasidion annosum infection. Based on gene expression profiles, stress-induced monolignol biosynthesis appeared similar to the developmental process, and only single PAL and C3H genes were specifically up-regulated by stress. On the contrary, the up-regulated peroxidase genes differed between developmental and stress-induced lignification, indicating specific responses.