Bayesian fisheries stock assessment: integrating and updating knowledge

In this thesis the use of the Bayesian approach to statistical inference in fisheries stock assessment is studied. The work was conducted in collaboration of the Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute by using the problem of monitoring and prediction of the juvenile salmon population in the River Tornionjoki as an example application. The River Tornionjoki is the largest salmon river flowing into the Baltic Sea. This thesis tackles the issues of model formulation and model checking as well as computational problems related to Bayesian modelling in the context of fisheries stock assessment. Each article of the thesis provides a novel method either for extracting information from data obtained via a particular type of sampling system or for integrating the information about the fish stock from multiple sources in terms of a population dynamics model. Mark-recapture and removal sampling schemes and a random catch sampling method are covered for the estimation of the population size. In addition, a method for estimating the stock composition of a salmon catch based on DNA samples is also presented. For most of the articles, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation has been used as a tool to approximate the posterior distribution. Problems arising from the sampling method are also briefly discussed and potential solutions for these problems are proposed. Special emphasis in the discussion is given to the philosophical foundation of the Bayesian approach in the context of fisheries stock assessment. It is argued that the role of subjective prior knowledge needed in practically all parts of a Bayesian model should be recognized and consequently fully utilised in the process of model formulation.

Conservation of Atlantic salmon by supplementary stocking of juvenile fish

Wild salmon stocks in the northern Baltic rivers became endangered in the second half of the 20th century, mainly due to recruitment overfishing. As a result, supplementary stocking was widely practised, and supplementation of the Tornionjoki salmon stock took place over a 25 year period until 2002. The stock has been closely monitored by electrofishing, smolt trapping, mark-recapture studies, catch samples and catch surveys. Background information on hatchery-reared stocked juveniles was also collected for this study. Bayesian statistics was applied to the data as this method offers the possibility of bringing prior information into the analysis and an advanced ability for incorporating uncertainty, and also provides probabilities for a multitude of hypotheses. Substantial divergences between reared and wild Tornionjoki salmon were identified in both demographic and phenological characteristics. The divergences tended to be larger the longer the duration spent in hatchery and the more favourable the hatchery conditions were for fast growth. Differences in environment likely induced most of the divergences, but selection of brood fish might have resulted in genotypic divergence in maturation age of reared salmon. Survival of stocked 1-year old juveniles to smolt varied from about 10% to about 25%. Stocking on the lower reach of the river seemed to decrease survival, and the negative effect of stocking volume on survival raises the concern of possible similar effects on the extant wild population. Post-smolt survival of wild Tornionjoki smolts was on average two times higher than that of smolts stocked as parr and 2.5 times higher than that of stocked smolts. Smolts of different groups showed synchronous variation and similar long-term survival trends. Both groups of reared salmon were more vulnerable to offshore driftnet and coastal trapnet fishing than wild salmon. Average survival from smolt to spawners of wild salmon was 2.8 times higher than that of salmon stocked as parr and 3.3 times higher than that of salmon stocked as smolts. Wild salmon and salmon stocked as parr were found to have similar lifetime survival rates, while stocked smolts have a lifetime survival rate over 4 times higher than the two other groups. If eggs are collected from the wild brood fish, stocking parr would therefore not be a sensible option. Stocking smolts instead would create a net benefit in terms of the number of spawners, but this strategy has serious drawbacks and risks associated with the larger phenotypic and demographic divergences from wild salmon. Supplementation was shown not to be the key factor behind the recovery of the Tornionjoki and other northern Baltic salmon stocks. Instead, a combination of restrictions in the sea fishery and simultaneous occurrence of favourable natural conditions for survival were the main reasons for the revival in the 1990 s. This study questions the effectiveness of supplementation as a conservation management tool. The benefits of supplementation seem at best limited. Relatively high occurrences of reared fish in catches may generate false optimism concerning the effects of supplementation. Supplementation may lead to genetic risks due to problems in brood fish collection and artificial rearing with relaxed natural selection and domestication. Appropriate management of fisheries is the main alternative to supplementation, without which all other efforts for long-term maintenance of a healthy fish resource fail.

Modeling ecological and evolutionary processes in spatially structured populations

Many species inhabit fragmented landscapes, resulting either from anthropogenic or from natural processes. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured populations are affected by a complex interplay between endogenous and exogenous factors. The metapopulation approach, simplifying the landscape to a discrete set of patches of breeding habitat surrounded by unsuitable matrix, has become a widely applied paradigm for the study of species inhabiting highly fragmented landscapes. In this thesis, I focus on the construction of biologically realistic models and their parameterization with empirical data, with the general objective of understanding how the interactions between individuals and their spatially structured environment affect ecological and evolutionary processes in fragmented landscapes. I study two hierarchically structured model systems, which are the Glanville fritillary butterfly in the Åland Islands, and a system of two interacting aphid species in the Tvärminne archipelago, both being located in South-Western Finland. The interesting and challenging feature of both study systems is that the population dynamics occur over multiple spatial scales that are linked by various processes. My main emphasis is in the development of mathematical and statistical methodologies. For the Glanville fritillary case study, I first build a Bayesian framework for the estimation of death rates and capture probabilities from mark-recapture data, with the novelty of accounting for variation among individuals in capture probabilities and survival. I then characterize the dispersal phase of the butterflies by deriving a mathematical approximation of a diffusion-based movement model applied to a network of patches. I use the movement model as a building block to construct an individual-based evolutionary model for the Glanville fritillary butterfly metapopulation. I parameterize the evolutionary model using a pattern-oriented approach, and use it to study how the landscape structure affects the evolution of dispersal. For the aphid case study, I develop a Bayesian model of hierarchical multi-scale metapopulation dynamics, where the observed extinction and colonization rates are decomposed into intrinsic rates operating specifically at each spatial scale. In summary, I show how analytical approaches, hierarchical Bayesian methods and individual-based simulations can be used individually or in combination to tackle complex problems from many different viewpoints. In particular, hierarchical Bayesian methods provide a useful tool for decomposing ecological complexity into more tractable components.

Marking one-summer old whitefish with fluorescent pigment spraying method and results of whitefish stockings in the Gulf of Bothnia

Anadromous whitefish is one of the most important fish species in the Finnish coastal fisheries in the Gulf fo Bothnia. To compensate the lost reproduction due to river damming and to support the fisheries, several million one-summer old whitefish are released yearly into the Gulf of Bothnia. Since there are naturally reproducing whitefish in the Gulf as well, and the wild and stocked fish can not be separated in the catch, stocking impact can only be estimated by marking the stocked fish. Due to the small size and large number of released whitefish, the scattered fishery and large area where the whitefish migrate, most of the traditionally used fish marking methods were either unsuitable (e.g. Carlin-tags) or proved to be too expensive (e.g. coded wire tags). Fluorescent pigment spraying method offers a fast and cost-effective method to mass-mark young fish. However, the results are not always satisfactory due to low long-time retention of the marks in some species. The method has to be tested and proper marking conditions and methods determined for each species. This thesis is based on work that was accomplished while developing the fluorescent pigment spraying method for marking one-summer old whitefish fingerlings, and it draws together the results of mass-marking whitefish fingerlings that were released in the Gulf of Bothnia. Fluorescent pigment spraying method is suitable for one-summer old whitefish larger than 8 cm total length. The water temperature during the marking should not exceed 10o C. Suitable spraying pressure is 6 bars measured in the compressor outlet, and the distance of the spraying gun nozzle should be ca 20 cm from the fish. Under such conditions, the marking results in long-term retention of the mark with low or no mortality. The stress level of the fish (measured as muscle water content) rises during the marking procedure, but if the fish are allowed to recover after marking, the overall stress level remains within the limits observed in normal fish handling during the capture-loading-transport-stocking procedure. The marked whitefish fingerlings are released into the sea at larger size and later in the season than the wild whitefish. However, the stocked individuals migrate to the southern feeding grounds in a similar pattern to the wild ones. The catch produced by whitefish stocking in the Gulf of Bothnia varied between released fingerling groups, but was within the limits reported elsewhere in Finland. The releases in the southern Bothnian Bay resulted in a larger catch than those made in the northern Bothnian Bay. The size of the released fingerlings seemed to have some effect on survival of the fish during the first winter in the sea. However, when the different marking groups were compared, the mean fingerling size was not related to stocking success.

Rikollisia sattumalta? : Naisten keskinäistä haureutta koskevat oikeudenkäynnit 1950-luvun Itä-Suomessa

The main focus of the research is on the genealogy of women's same-sex fornication in Finnish criminal law from 1889/1894 to 1971. Why were women included in the concept of same-sex fornication in Finland and why, where, and when was the law put into effect? Which women were tried, how did the trial proceedings evolve, and what kind of effects did the trials have afterwards? Which concepts were used? These questions have been approached through the analysis of the Finnish Penal Code, the criminal law science and four trial proceedings in Eastern Finland during the 1950s. The research draws on the epistemology of the closet and the concept of heteronormativity adapted from queer theories. It is method critical in utilising ethnography, micro history and feminist ethical self-reflection. The research consists of six scientific refereed articles (see appendix) and of a theoretical introduction. The main results of the research are: 1) The genealogy of Finnish decency [Sittlichkeit] can not be researched without oral histories, due to the late modernisation of Finnish society and the legal system, which does not follow the pattern of English, French and German societies. 2) The inclusion of women's same-sex fornication in the Finnish Penal Code is not incomprehensible when compared to the early modern European legislations and court practices. Women have been punished for the sins of Sodom, though not directly under the 1734 Swedish law. 3) Fornication and decency were ambivalent concepts in the 1889/1894 law, and juridical authorities offered controversial interpretations of them during the late 19th and early 20th centuries. 4) A peak in women's convictions occurred in the 1950s, and most of the trial proceedings took place in rural Eastern Finland. Neither the state nor the police were active in prosecuting; instead, the trial proceedings began "by accident". 5) From 1940 to 1960 police training lacked instructions concerning the interrogation of women suspected of same-sex fornication. 6) The figure of the penitent woman was produced in the chiasmic encounter of confession and police interrogation which moulded and was moulded by the epistemological matrix of shame, honour, and decency. Women's speech acts were judicialised as confessions which enabled the disciplinary tampering with the women's bodies. 7) Gender and personality, more than sexuality, or "criminality" defined the status of the convicted women in their village communities after the trials. 8) Relations between police training, sexuality, and decency have not been well researched in Finland. 9) Decriminalisation in 1971 did not mark the end of homophobic legal discourse, even though the 1999 reform of sexual crimes took the form of gender neutral conceptualisation

Uskonto ilman uskontoa : Radikaalin postmodernin uskonnonfilosofian haaste

Religion without religion. The challenge of radical postmodern philosophy of religion. The aim of this study is to examine the central ideas of Mark C. Taylor, Don Cupitt, and Grace Jantzen on the subject of the philosophy of religion. The method is a qualitative, systematic analysis of the works of the aforementioned philosophers. The purpose is to present, analyze, identify, find connections, and to gain an understanding of the original texts. This thesis shows that radical postmodern religion is “religion without religion”. God is “dead” and the concept of God is seen as “writing”, an ideal, a relationship of meanings or a language. In ethics, there are no objective values or principles. People must create their own morality. Reality is each person´s concept of reality. Language is universal in that language and reality cannot be considered separately. The human subject is contingent and formed in the linguistic and social context. According to postmodern feminism, the ideas that men present as facts are often degrading to women, distort reality and support the power of men. For this reason, we should create a new kind of philosophy of religion and a new language that takes women into consideration. Finally, we will study some philosophers, who have used postmodern ideas in a more moderate manner. In this way, we will look for a balanced solution between modernism and postmodernism. This study shows that the postmodern idea of religion is very different from classical Christianity. Ethics becomes subjective, anarchistic and nihilistic. Epistemology is relativistic and the human being becomes the measure of all things. Objective reality becomes blurry. Language is seen to be game-like, and it has no relation to reality. The moral responsibility of a subject becomes problematic. Science and rationality come into question without the permanent core provided by our consciousness. Women are not in an epistemologically privileged position. The truth claims by either men or women must each be evaluated one at a time. Many postmodern ideas can successfully be made of use if used in moderate manner.

Information, risk and trust in the food chain : Ex-ante valuation of consumer willingness to pay for beef quality information using the contingent valuation method

The safety of food has become an increasingly interesting issue to consumers and the media. It has also become a source of concern, as the amount of information on the risks related to food safety continues to expand. Today, risk and safety are permanent elements within the concept of food quality. Safety, in particular, is the attribute that consumers find very difficult to assess. The literature in this study consists of three main themes: traceability; consumer behaviour related to both quality and safety issues and perception of risk; and valuation methods. The empirical scope of the study was restricted to beef, because the beef labelling system enables reliable tracing of the origin of beef, as well as attributes related to safety, environmental friendliness and animal welfare. The purpose of this study was to examine what kind of information flows are required to ensure quality and safety in the food chain for beef, and who should produce that information. Studying the willingness to pay of consumers makes it possible to determine whether the consumers consider the quantity of information available on the safety and quality of beef sufficient. One of the main findings of this study was that the majority of Finnish consumers (73%) regard increased quality information as beneficial. These benefits were assessed using the contingent valuation method. The results showed that those who were willing to pay for increased information on the quality and safety of beef would accept an average price increase of 24% per kilogram. The results showed that certain risk factors impact consumer willingness to pay. If the respondents considered genetic modification of food or foodborne zoonotic diseases as harmful or extremely harmful risk factors in food, they were more likely to be willing to pay for quality information. The results produced by the models thus confirmed the premise that certain food-related risks affect willingness to pay for beef quality information. The results also showed that safety-related quality cues are significant to the consumers. In the first place, the consumers would like to receive information on the control of zoonotic diseases that are contagious to humans. Similarly, other process-control related information ranked high among the top responses. Information on any potential genetic modification was also considered important, even though genetic modification was not regarded as a high risk factor.

Precipitation-induced runoff and leaching from milled peat mining mires by peat types : a comparative method for estimating the loading of water bodies during peat pruduction

Precipitation-induced runoff and leaching from milled peat mining mires by peat types: a comparative method for estimating the loading of water bodies during peat production. This research project in environmental geology has arisen out of an observed need to be able to predict more accurately the loading of watercourses with detrimental organic substances and nutrients from already existing and planned peat production areas, since the authorities capacity for insisting on such predictions covering the whole duration of peat production in connection with evaluations of environmental impact is at present highly limited. National and international decisions regarding monitoring of the condition of watercourses and their improvement and restoration require more sophisticated evaluation methods in order to be able to forecast watercourse loading and its environmental impacts at the stage of land-use planning and preparations for peat production.The present project thus set out from the premise that it would be possible on the basis of existing mire and peat data properties to construct estimates for the typical loading from production mires over the whole duration of their exploitation. Finland has some 10 million hectares of peatland, accounting for almost a third of its total area. Macroclimatic conditions have varied in the course of the Holocene growth and development of this peatland, and with them the habitats of the peat-forming plants. Temperatures and moisture conditions have played a significant role in determining the dominant species of mire plants growing there at any particular time, the resulting mire types and the accumulation and deposition of plant remains to form the peat. The above climatic, environmental and mire development factors, together with ditching, have contributed, and continue to contribute, to the existence of peat horizons that differ in their physical and chemical properties, leading to differences in material transport between peatlands in a natural state and mires that have been ditched or prepared for forestry and peat production. Watercourse loading from the ditching of mires or their use for peat production can have detrimental effects on river and lake environments and their recreational use, especially where oxygen-consuming organic solids and soluble organic substances and nutrients are concerned. It has not previously been possible, however, to estimate in advance the watercourse loading likely to arise from ditching and peat production on the basis of the characteristics of the peat in a mire, although earlier observations have indicated that watercourse loading from peat production can vary greatly and it has been suggested that differences in peat properties may be of significance in this. Sprinkling is used here in combination with simulations of conditions in a milled peat production area to determine the influence of the physical and chemical properties of milled peats in production mires on surface runoff into the drainage ditches and the concentrations of material in the runoff water. Sprinkling and extraction experiments were carried out on 25 samples of milled Carex (C) and Sphagnum (S) peat of humification grades H 2.5 8.5 with moisture content in the range 23.4 89% on commencement of the first sprinkling, which was followed by a second sprinkling 24 hours later. The water retention capacity of the peat was best, and surface runoff lowest, with Sphagnum and Carex peat samples of humification grades H 2.5 6 in the moisture content class 56 75%. On account of the hydrophobicity of dry peat, runoff increased in a fairly regular manner with drying of the sample from 55% to 24 30%. Runoff from the samples with an original moisture content over 55% increased by 63% in the second round of sprinkling relative to the first, as they had practically reached saturation point on the first occasion, while those with an original moisture content below 55% retained their high runoff in the second round, due to continued hydrophobicity. The well-humified samples (H 6.5 8.5) with a moisture content over 80% showed a low water retention capacity and high runoff in both rounds of sprinkling. Loading of the runoff water with suspended solids, total phosphorus and total nitrogen, and also the chemical oxygen demand (CODMn O2), varied greatly in the sprinkling experiment, depending on the peat type and degree of humification, but concentrations of the same substances in the two sprinklings were closely or moderately closely correlated and these correlations were significant. The concentrations of suspended solids in the runoff water observed in the simulations of a peat production area and the direct surface runoff from it into the drainage ditch system in response to rain (sprinkling intensity 1.27 mm/min) varied c. 60-fold between the degrees of humification in the case of the Carex peats and c. 150-fold for the Sphagnum peats, while chemical oxygen demand varied c. 30-fold and c. 50-fold, respectively, total phosphorus c. 60-fold and c. 66-fold, total nitrogen c. 65-fold and c. 195-fold and ammonium nitrogen c. 90-fold and c. 30-fold. The increases in concentrations in the runoff water were very closely correlated with increases in humification of the peat. The correlations of the concentrations measured in extraction experiments (48 h) with peat type and degree of humification corresponded to those observed in the sprinkler experiments. The resulting figures for the surface runoff from a peat production area into the drainage ditches simulated by means of sprinkling and material concentrations in the runoff water were combined with statistics on the mean extent of daily rainfall (0 67 mm) during the frost-free period of the year (May October) over an observation period of 30 years to yield typical annual loading figures (kg/ha) for suspended solids (SS), chemical oxygen demand of organic matter (CODmn O2), total phosphorus (tot. P) and total nitrogen (tot. N) entering the ditches with respect to milled Carex (C) and Sphagnum (S) peats of humification grades H 2.5 8.5. In order to calculate the loading of drainage ditches from a milled peat production mire with the aid of these annual comparative values (in kg/ha), information is required on the properties of the intended production mire and its peat. Once data are available on the area of the mire, its peat depth, peat types and their degrees of humification, dry matter content, calorific value and corresponding energy content, it is possible to produce mutually comparable estimates for individual mires with respect to the annual loading of the drainage ditch system and the surrounding watercourse for the whole service life of the production area, the duration of this service life, determinations of energy content and the amount of loading per unit of energy generated (kg/MWh). In the 8 mires in the Köyhäjoki basin, Central Ostrobothnia, taken as an example, the loading of suspended solids (SS) in the drainage ditch networks calculated on the basis of the typical values obtained here and existing mire and peat data and expressed per unit of energy generated varied between the mires and horizons in the range 0.9 16.5 kg/MWh. One of the aims of this work was to develop means of making better use of existing mire and peat data and the results of corings and other field investigations. In this respect combination of the typical loading values (kg/ha) obtained here for S, SC, CS and C peats and the various degrees of humification (H 2.5 8.5) with the above mire and peat data by means of a computer program for the acquisition and handling of such data would enable all the information currently available and that deposited in the system in the future to be used for defining watercourse loading estimates for mires and comparing them with the corresponding estimates of energy content. The intention behind this work has been to respond to the challenge facing the energy generation industry to find larger peat production areas that exert less loading on the environment and to that facing the environmental authorities to improve the means available for estimating watercourse loading from peat production and its environmental impacts in advance. The results conform well to the initial hypothesis and to the goals laid down for the research and should enable watercourse loading from existing and planned peat production to be evaluated better in the future and the resulting impacts to be taken into account when planning land use and energy generation. The advance loading information available in this way would be of value in the selection of individual peat production areas, the planning of their exploitation, the introduction of water protection measures and the planning of loading inspections, in order to achieve controlled peat production that pays due attention to environmental considerations.