Change detection and controlling forest information using multi-temporal Landsat TM imagery.

A method was developed for relative radiometric calibration of single multitemporal Landsat TM image, several multitemporal images covering each others, and several multitemporal images covering different geographic locations. The radiometricly calibrated difference images were used for detecting rapid changes on forest stands. The nonparametric Kernel method was applied for change detection. The accuracy of the change detection was estimated by inspecting the image analysis results in field. The change classification was applied for controlling the quality of the continuously updated forest stand information. The aim was to ensure that all the manmade changes and any forest damages were correctly updated including the attribute and stand delineation information. The image analysis results were compared with the registered treatments and the stand information base. The stands with discrepancies between these two information sources were recommended to be field inspected.

Sensory auditory processing and intuitive sound detection : an investigation of musical experts and nonexperts

The auditory system can detect occasional changes (deviants) in acoustic regularities without the need for subjects to focus their attention on the sound material. Deviant detection is reflected in the elicitation of the mismatch negativity component (MMN) of the event-related potentials. In the studies presented in this thesis, the MMN is used to investigate the auditory abilities for detecting similarities and regularities in sound streams. To investigate the limits of these processes, professional musicians have been tested in some of the studies. The results show that auditory grouping is already more advanced in musicians than in nonmusicians and that the auditory system of musicians can, unlike that of nonmusicians, detect a numerical regularity of always four tones in a series. These results suggest that sensory auditory processing in musicians is not only a fine tuning of universal abilities, but is also qualitatively more advanced than in nonmusicians. In addition, the relationship between the auditory change-detection function and perception is examined. It is shown that, contrary to the generally accepted view, MMN elicitation does not necessarily correlate with perception. The outcome of the auditory change-detection function can be implicit and the implicit knowledge of the sound structure can, after training, be utilized for behaviorally correct intuitive sound detection. These results illustrate the automatic character of the sensory change detection function.

Pitch discrimination in optimal and suboptimal acoustic environments: electroencephalographic, magnetoencephalographic, and behavioral evidence

Pitch discrimination is a fundamental property of the human auditory system. Our understanding of pitch-discrimination mechanisms is important from both theoretical and clinical perspectives. The discrimination of spectrally complex sounds is crucial in the processing of music and speech. Current methods of cognitive neuroscience can track the brain processes underlying sound processing either with precise temporal (EEG and MEG) or spatial resolution (PET and fMRI). A combination of different techniques is therefore required in contemporary auditory research. One of the problems in comparing the EEG/MEG and fMRI methods, however, is the fMRI acoustic noise. In the present thesis, EEG and MEG in combination with behavioral techniques were used, first, to define the ERP correlates of automatic pitch discrimination across a wide frequency range in adults and neonates and, second, they were used to determine the effect of recorded acoustic fMRI noise on those adult ERP and ERF correlates during passive and active pitch discrimination. Pure tones and complex 3-harmonic sounds served as stimuli in the oddball and matching-to-sample paradigms. The results suggest that pitch discrimination in adults, as reflected by MMN latency, is most accurate in the 1000-2000 Hz frequency range, and that pitch discrimination is facilitated further by adding harmonics to the fundamental frequency. Newborn infants are able to discriminate a 20% frequency change in the 250-4000 Hz frequency range, whereas the discrimination of a 5% frequency change was unconfirmed. Furthermore, the effect of the fMRI gradient noise on the automatic processing of pitch change was more prominent for tones with frequencies exceeding 500 Hz, overlapping with the spectral maximum of the noise. When the fundamental frequency of the tones was lower than the spectral maximum of the noise, fMRI noise had no effect on MMN and P3a, whereas the noise delayed and suppressed N1 and exogenous N2. Noise also suppressed the N1 amplitude in a matching-to-sample working memory task. However, the task-related difference observed in the N1 component, suggesting a functional dissociation between the processing of spatial and non-spatial auditory information, was partially preserved in the noise condition. Noise hampered feature coding mechanisms more than it hampered the mechanisms of change detection, involuntary attention, and the segregation of the spatial and non-spatial domains of working-memory. The data presented in the thesis can be used to develop clinical ERP-based frequency-discrimination protocols and combined EEG and fMRI experimental paradigms.

Neurochemical regulation of auditory information processing studied with EEG/MEG: application to schizophrenia

Cognitive impairments of attention, memory and executive functions are a fundamental feature of the pathophysiology of schizophrenia. The neurophysiological and neurochemical changes in the auditory cortex are shown to underlie cognitive impairmentsin schizophrenia patients. Functional state of the neural substrate of auditory information processing could be objectively and non-invasively probed with auditory event-related potentials (ERPs) and event- related fields (ERFs). In the current work, we explored the neurochemical effect on the neural origins of auditory information processing in relation to schizophrenia. By means of ERPs/ERFs we aimed to determine how neural substrates of auditory information processing are modulated by antipsychotic medication in schizophrenia spectrum patients (Studies I, II) and by neuropharmacological challenges in healthy human subjects (Studies III, IV). First, with auditory ERPs we investigated the effects of olanzapine (Study I) and risperidone (Study II) in a group of patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders. After 2 and 4 weeks of treatment, olanzapine has no significant effects on mismatch negativity(MMN) and P300, which, as it has been suggested, respectively reflect preattentive and attention-dependent information processing. After 2 weeks of treatment, risperidone has no significant effect on P300, however risperidone reduces P200 amplitude. This latter effect of risperidone on neural resources responsible for P200 generation could be partly explained through the action of dopamine. Subsequently, we used simultaneous EEG/MEG to investigate the effects of memantine (Study III) and methylphenidate (Study IV) in healthy subjects. We found that memantine modulates MMN response without changing other ERP components. This could be interpreted as being due to the possible influence of memantine through the NMDA receptors on auditory change- detection mechanism, with processing of auditory stimuli remaining otherwise unchanged. Further, we found that methylphenidate does not modulate the MMN response. This finding could indicate no association between catecholaminergic activities and electrophysiological measures of preattentive auditory discrimination processes reflected in the MMN. However, methylphenidate decreases the P200 amplitudes. This could be interpreted as a modulation of auditory information processing reflected in P200 by dopaminergic and noradrenergic systems. Taken together, our set of studies indicates a complex pattern of neurochemical influences produced by the antipsychotic drugs in the neural substrate of auditory information processing in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders and by the pharmacological challenges in healthy subjects studied with ERPs and ERFs.

Burnt area mapping in insular Southeast Asia using medium resolution satellite imagery

Burnt area mapping in humid tropical insular Southeast Asia using medium resolution (250-500m) satellite imagery is characterized by persisting cloud cover, wide range of land cover types, vast amount of wetland areas and highly varying fire regimes. The objective of this study was to deepen understanding of three major aspects affecting the implementation and limits of medium resolution burnt area mapping in insular Southeast Asia: 1) fire-induced spectral changes, 2) most suitable multitemporal compositing methods and 3) burn scars patterns and size distribution. The results revealed a high variation in fire-induced spectral changes depending on the pre-fire greenness of burnt area. It was concluded that this variation needs to be taken into account in change detection based burnt area mapping algorithms in order to maximize the potential of medium resolution satellite data. Minimum near infrared (MODIS band 2, 0.86μm) compositing method was found to be the most suitable for burnt area mapping purposes using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. In general, medium resolution burnt area mapping was found to be usable in the wetlands of insular Southeast Asia, whereas in other areas the usability was seriously jeopardized by the small size of burn scars. The suitability of medium resolution data for burnt area mapping in wetlands is important since recently Southeast Asian wetlands have become a major point of interest in many fields of science due to yearly occurring wild fires that not only degrade these unique ecosystems but also create regional haze problem and release globally significant amounts of carbon into the atmosphere due to burning peat. Finally, super-resolution MODIS images were tested but the test failed to improve the detection of small scars. Therefore, super-resolution technique was not considered to be applicable to regional level burnt area mapping in insular Southeast Asia.

Geospatial environmental data modelling applications using remote sensing, GIS and spatial statistics

This thesis presents novel modelling applications for environmental geospatial data using remote sensing, GIS and statistical modelling techniques. The studied themes can be classified into four main themes: (i) to develop advanced geospatial databases. Paper (I) demonstrates the creation of a geospatial database for the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Åland Islands, south-western Finland; (ii) to analyse species diversity and distribution using GIS techniques. Paper (II) presents a diversity and geographical distribution analysis for Scopulini moths at a world-wide scale; (iii) to study spatiotemporal forest cover change. Paper (III) presents a study of exotic and indigenous tree cover change detection in Taita Hills Kenya using airborne imagery and GIS analysis techniques; (iv) to explore predictive modelling techniques using geospatial data. In Paper (IV) human population occurrence and abundance in the Taita Hills highlands was predicted using the generalized additive modelling (GAM) technique. Paper (V) presents techniques to enhance fire prediction and burned area estimation at a regional scale in East Caprivi Namibia. Paper (VI) compares eight state-of-the-art predictive modelling methods to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping in East Caprivi Namibia. The results in Paper (I) showed that geospatial data can be managed effectively using advanced relational database management systems. Metapopulation data for Melitaea cinxia butterfly was successfully combined with GPS-delimited habitat patch information and climatic data. Using the geospatial database, spatial analyses were successfully conducted at habitat patch level or at more coarse analysis scales. Moreover, this study showed it appears evident that at a large-scale spatially correlated weather conditions are one of the primary causes of spatially correlated changes in Melitaea cinxia population sizes. In Paper (II) spatiotemporal characteristics of Socupulini moths description, diversity and distribution were analysed at a world-wide scale and for the first time GIS techniques were used for Scopulini moth geographical distribution analysis. This study revealed that Scopulini moths have a cosmopolitan distribution. The majority of the species have been described from the low latitudes, sub-Saharan Africa being the hot spot of species diversity. However, the taxonomical effort has been uneven among biogeographical regions. Paper III showed that forest cover change can be analysed in great detail using modern airborne imagery techniques and historical aerial photographs. However, when spatiotemporal forest cover change is studied care has to be taken in co-registration and image interpretation when historical black and white aerial photography is used. In Paper (IV) human population distribution and abundance could be modelled with fairly good results using geospatial predictors and non-Gaussian predictive modelling techniques. Moreover, land cover layer is not necessary needed as a predictor because first and second-order image texture measurements derived from satellite imagery had more power to explain the variation in dwelling unit occurrence and abundance. Paper V showed that generalized linear model (GLM) is a suitable technique for fire occurrence prediction and for burned area estimation. GLM based burned area estimations were found to be more superior than the existing MODIS burned area product (MCD45A1). However, spatial autocorrelation of fires has to be taken into account when using the GLM technique for fire occurrence prediction. Paper VI showed that novel statistical predictive modelling techniques can be used to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping at a regional scale. However, some noticeable variation between different predictive modelling techniques for fire occurrence prediction and burned area estimation existed.

The Effect of Intrauterine Growth Restriction on Long-Term Outcome in Very or Extremely Low Birth Weight Infants

The project consisted of two long-term follow-up studies of preterm children addressing the question whether intrauterine growth restriction affects the outcome. Assessment at 5 years of age of 203 children with a birth weight less than 1000 g born in Finland in 1996-1997 showed that 9% of the children had cognitive impairment, 14% cerebral palsy, and 4% needed a hearing aid. The intelligence quotient was lower (p<0.05) than the reference value. Thus, 20% exhibited major, 19% minor disabilities, and 61% had no functional abnormalities. Being small for gestational age (SGA) was associated with sub-optimal growth later. In children born before 27 gestational weeks, the SGA had more neuropsychological disabilities than those appropriate for gestational age (AGA). In another cohort with birth weight less than 1500 g assessed at 5 years of age, echocardiography showed a thickened interventricular septum and a decreased left ventricular end-diastolic diameter in both SGA and AGA born children. They also had a higher systolic blood pressure than the reference. Laser-Doppler flowmetry showed different endothelium-dependent and -independent vasodilation responses in the AGA children compared to those of the controls. SGA was not associated with cardio-vascular abnormalities. Auditory event-related potentials (AERPs) were recorded using an oddball paradigm with frequency deviants (standard tone 500 Hz and deviant 750-Hz with 10% probability). At term, the P350 was smaller in SGA and AGA infants than in controls. At 12 months, the automatic change detection peak (mismatch negativity, MMN) was observed in the controls. However, the pre-term infants had a difference positivity that correlated with their neurodevelopment scores. At 5 years of age, the P1-deflection, which reflects primary auditory processing, was smaller, and the MMN larger in the preterm than in the control children. Even with a challenging paradigm or a distraction paradigm, P1 was smaller in the preterm than in the control children. The SGA and AGA children showed similar AERP responses. Prematurity is a major risk factor for abnormal brain development. Preterm children showed signs of cardiovascular abnormality suggesting that prematurity per se may carry a risk for later morbidity. The small positive amplitudes in AERPs suggest persisting altered auditory processing in the preterm in-fants.

Helsingin metropolialueen maisemaekologiset muutokset vuosina 1955-2009

Landscape is shaped by natural environment and increasingly by human activity. In landscape ecology, the concept of landscape can be defined as a kilometre-scale mosaic formed by different land-use types. In Helsinki Metropolitan Region, the landscape change caused by urbanization has accelerated after the 1950s. Prior to that, the landscape of the region was mainly only shaped by agriculture. The goal of this study was in addition to describing the landscape change to discuss the factors impacting the landscape change and evaluate thelandscape ecological impacts of the change. Three study areas at different distances from Helsinki city centre were chosen in order to look at the landscape change. Study areas were Malmi, Espoo and Mäntsälä regions representing different parts of the urban-to-rural gradient in 1955, 1975, 1990 and 2009. Land-use of the maps was then digitized into five classes: agricultural lands, semi-natural grasslands, built areas, waters and others using GIS methods. First, landscape change was studied using landscape ecological indices. Indices used were PLAND i.e. the proportions of the different land-use types in the landscape; MPS, SHEI and SHDI which describe fragmentation and heterogeneity of the landscape; and MSI and ED which are measures of patch shape. Second, landscape change was studied statistically in relation to topography, soil and urban structure of the study areas. Indicators used concerning urban structure were number of residents, car ownership and travel-related zones of urban form which indicate the degree of urban sprawl within the study areas. For the statistical analyses, each of the 9.25 x 9.25 km sized study areas was further divided into grids with resolution of 0.25 x 0.25 kilometres. Third, the changes in the green structure of the study areas were evaluated. The landscape change reflected by the proportions of the land-use types was the most notable in Malmi area where a large amount of agricultural land was developed from 1955 to 2009. The proportion of semi-natural grasslands also showed an interesting pattern in relation to urbanization. When urbanization started, a great number of agricultural lands were abandoned and turned into semi-natural grasslands but as the urbanization accelerated, the number of semi-natural grasslands started to decline because of urban densification. Landscape fragmentation and heterogeneity were the most widespread in Espoo study area which is not only because of the great differences in relative heights within the region but also its location in the rural-urban fringe. According to the results, urbanization induced agricultural lands to be more regular in shape both spatially and temporally whereas for built areas and semi-natural grasslands the impact of urbanization was reverse. Changes in landscape were the most insignificant in the most rural study area Mäntsälä. In Mäntsälä, built area per resident showed the greatest values indicating a widespread urban sprawl. The values were the smallest in highly urbanized Malmi study area. Unlike other study areas, in Mäntsälä the proportion of developing land in the ecologically disadvantageous cardependent zone was on the increase. On the other hand, the green structure of the Mäntsälä study area was the most advantageous whereas Malmi study area showed the most ecologically disadvantageous structure. Considering all the landscape ecological criteria used, the landscape structure of Espoo study area proved to be the best not least because of the great heterogeneity of its landscape. Thus the study confirmed the previous results according to which landscape heterogeneity is the most significant in areas exposed to a moderate human impact.

Monitoring Indigenous Tropical Montane Forests in the Taita Hills Using Airborne Digital Camera Imagery

The loss and degradation of forest cover is currently a globally recognised problem. The fragmentation of forests is further affecting the biodiversity and well-being of the ecosystems also in Kenya. This study focuses on two indigenous tropical montane forests in the Taita Hills in southeastern Kenya. The study is a part of the TAITA-project within the Department of Geography in the University of Helsinki. The study forests, Ngangao and Chawia, are studied by remote sensing and GIS methods. The main data includes black and white aerial photography from 1955 and true colour digital camera data from 2004. This data is used to produce aerial mosaics from the study areas. The land cover of these study areas is studied by visual interpretation, pixel-based supervised classification and object-oriented supervised classification. The change of the forest cover is studied with GIS methods using the visual interpretations from 1955 and 2004. Furthermore, the present state of the study forests is assessed with leaf area index and canopy closure parameters retrieved from hemispherical photographs as well as with additional, previously collected forest health monitoring data. The canopy parameters are also compared with textural parameters from digital aerial mosaics. This study concludes that the classification of forest areas by using true colour data is not an easy task although the digital aerial mosaics are proved to be very accurate. The best classifications are still achieved with visual interpretation methods as the accuracies of the pixel-based and object-oriented supervised classification methods are not satisfying. According to the change detection of the land cover in the study areas, the area of indigenous woodland in both forests has decreased in 1955 2004. However in Ngangao, the overall woodland area has grown mainly because of plantations of exotic species. In general, the land cover of both study areas is more fragmented in 2004 than in 1955. Although the forest area has decreased, forests seem to have a more optimistic future than before. This is due to the increasing appreciation of the forest areas.

Environmental change and human history in the Jabal Harun area, Jordan

The research is related to the Finnish Jabal Harun Project (FJHP), which is part of the research unit directed by Professor Jaakko Frösén. The project consists of two interrelated parts: the excavation of a Byzantine monastery/pilgrimage centre on Jabal Harun, and a multiperiod archaeological survey of the surrounding landscape. It is generally held that the Near Eastern landscape has been modified by millennia of human habitation and activity. Past climatic changes and human activities could be expected to have significantly changed also the landscape of the Jabal Harun area. Therefore it was considered that a study of erosion in the Jabal Harun area could shed light on the environmental and human history of the area. It was hoped that it would be possible to connect the results of the sedimentological studies either to wider climatic changes in the Near East, or to archaeologically observable periods of human activity and land use. As evidence of some archaeological periods is completely missing from the Jabal Harun area, it was also of interest whether catastrophic erosion or unfavourable environmental change, caused either by natural forces or by human agency, could explain the gaps in the archaeological record. Changes in climate and/or land-use were expected to be reflected in the sedimentary record. The field research, carried out as part of the FJHP survey fieldwork, included the mapping of wadi terraces and cleaning of sediment profiles which were recorded and sampled for laboratory analyses of facies and lithology. To obtain a chronology for the sedimentation and erosion phases also OSL (optically stimulated luminescence) dating samples were collected. The results were compared to the record of the Near Eastern palaeoclimate, and to data from geoarchaeological studies in central and southern Jordan. The picture of the environmental development was then compared to the human history in the area, based on archaeological evidence from the FJHP survey and the published archaeological research in the Petra region, and the question of the relationship between human activity and environmental change was critically discussed. Using the palaeoclimatic data and the results from geoarchaeological studies it was possible to outline the environmental development in the Jabal Harun area from the Pleistocene to the present.It is appears that there was a phase of accumulation of sediment before the Middle Palaeolithic period, possibly related to tectonic movement. This phase was later followed by erosion, tentatively suggested to have taken place during the Upper Palaeolithic. A period of wadi aggradation probably occurred during the Late Glacial and continued until the end of the Pleistocene, followed by significant channel degradation, attributed to increased rainfall during the Early Holocene. It seems that during the later Holocene channel incision has been dominant in the Jabal Harûn area although there have been also small-scale channel aggradation phases, two of which were OSL-dated to around 4000-3000 BP and 2400-2000 BP. As there is no evidence of tectonic movements in the Jabal Harun area after the early Pleistocene, it is suggested that climate change and human activity have been the major causes of environmental change in the area. At a brief glance it seems that many of the changes in the settlement and land use in the Jabal Harun area can be explained by climatic and environmental conditions. However, the responses of human societies to environmental change are dependent on many factors. Therefore an evaluation of the significance of environmental, cultural, socio-economic and political factors is needed to decide whether certain phenomena are environmentally induced. Comparison with the wider Petra region is also needed to judge whether the phenomena are characteristic of the Jabal Harun area only, or can they be connected to social, political and economic development over a wider area.

Semantic Classes in Topic Detection and Tracking

Topic detection and tracking (TDT) is an area of information retrieval research the focus of which revolves around news events. The problems TDT deals with relate to segmenting news text into cohesive stories, detecting something new, previously unreported, tracking the development of a previously reported event, and grouping together news that discuss the same event. The performance of the traditional information retrieval techniques based on full-text similarity has remained inadequate for online production systems. It has been difficult to make the distinction between same and similar events. In this work, we explore ways of representing and comparing news documents in order to detect new events and track their development. First, however, we put forward a conceptual analysis of the notions of topic and event. The purpose is to clarify the terminology and align it with the process of news-making and the tradition of story-telling. Second, we present a framework for document similarity that is based on semantic classes, i.e., groups of words with similar meaning. We adopt people, organizations, and locations as semantic classes in addition to general terms. As each semantic class can be assigned its own similarity measure, document similarity can make use of ontologies, e.g., geographical taxonomies. The documents are compared class-wise, and the outcome is a weighted combination of class-wise similarities. Third, we incorporate temporal information into document similarity. We formalize the natural language temporal expressions occurring in the text, and use them to anchor the rest of the terms onto the time-line. Upon comparing documents for event-based similarity, we look not only at matching terms, but also how near their anchors are on the time-line. Fourth, we experiment with an adaptive variant of the semantic class similarity system. The news reflect changes in the real world, and in order to keep up, the system has to change its behavior based on the contents of the news stream. We put forward two strategies for rebuilding the topic representations and report experiment results. We run experiments with three annotated TDT corpora. The use of semantic classes increased the effectiveness of topic tracking by 10-30\% depending on the experimental setup. The gain in spotting new events remained lower, around 3-4\%. The anchoring the text to a time-line based on the temporal expressions gave a further 10\% increase the effectiveness of topic tracking. The gains in detecting new events, again, remained smaller. The adaptive systems did not improve the tracking results.

Phytoplankton ecology of subarctic lakes in Finnish Lapland

Climate is warming and it is especially seen in arctic areas, where the warming trend is expected to be greatest. Arctic freshwater ecosystems, which are a very characteristic feature of the arctic landscape, are especially sensitive to climate change. They could be used as early warning systems, but more information about the ecosystem functioning and responses are needed for proper interpretation of the observations. Phytoplankton species and assemblages could be especially suitable for climate-related studies, since they have short generation times and react rapidly to changes in the environment. In addition, phytoplankton provides a good tool for lake classifications, since different species have different requirements and tolerance ranges for various environmental factors. The use of biological indicators is especially useful in arctic areas, were many of the chemical factors commonly fall under the detection limit and therefore do not provide much information about the environment. This work brings new information about species distribution and dynamics of arctic freshwater phytoplankton in relation to environmental factors. The phytoplankton of lakes in Finnish Lapland and other European high-altitude or high-latitude areas were compared. Most lakes were oligotrophic and dominated by flagellated species belonging to chrysophytes, cryptophytes and dinoflagellates. In Finnish Lapland cryptophytes were of less importance, whereas desmids had high species richness in many of the lakes. In Pan-European scale, geographical and catchment-related factors were explaining most of the differences in species distributions between different districts, whereas lake water chemistry (especially conductivity, SiO2 and pH) was most important regionally. Seasonal and interannual variation of phytoplankton was studied in subarctic Lake Saanajärvi. Characteristic phytoplankton species in this oligotrophic, dimictic lake belonged mainly to chrysophytes and diatoms. The maximum phytoplankton biomass in Lake Saanajärvi occurs during autumn, while spring biomass is very low. During years with heavy snow cover the lake suffers from pH drop caused by melt waters, but the effects of this acid pulse are restricted to surface layers and last for a relatively short period. In addition to some chemical parameters (mainly Ca and nutrients), length of the mixing cycle and physical factors such as lake water temperature and thermal stability of water column had major impact on phytoplankton dynamics. During a year with long and strong thermal stability, the phytoplankton community developed towards an equilibrium state, with heavy dominance of only a few taxa for a longer period of time. During a year with higher windiness and less thermal stability, the species composition was more diverse and species with different functional strategies were able to occur simultaneously. The results of this work indicate that although arctic lakes in general share many common features concerning their catchment and water chemistry, large differences in biological features can be found even in a relatively small area. Most likely the lakes with very different algal flora do not respond in a similar way to differences in the environmental factors, and more information about specific arctic lake types is needed. The results also show considerable year to year differences in phytoplankton species distribution and dynamics, and these changes are most likely linked to climatic factors.

Infections in lung and heart transplant recipients : Studies on the impact of bronchoscopy in the diagnosis of respiratory infections and detection of viral infections in blood and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid

Infection is a major cause of mortality and morbidity after thoracic organ transplantation. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the infectious complications after lung and heart transplantation, with a special emphasis on the usefulness of bronchoscopy and the demonstration of cytomegalovirus (CMV), human herpes virus (HHV)-6, and HHV-7. We reviewed all the consecutive bronchoscopies performed on heart transplant recipients (HTRs) from May 1988 to December 2001 (n = 44) and lung transplant recipients (LTRs) from February 1994 to November 2002 (n = 472). To compare different assays in the detection of CMV, a total of 21 thoracic organ transplant recipients were prospectively monitored by CMV pp65-antigenemia, DNAemia (PCR), and mRNAemia (NASBA) tests. The antigenemia test was the reference assay for therapeutic intervention. In addition to CMV antigenemia, 22 LTRs were monitored for HHV-6 and HHV-7 antigenemia. The diagnostic yield of the clinically indicated bronchoscopies was 41 % in the HTRs and 61 % in the LTRs. The utility of the bronchoscopy was highest from one to six months after transplantation. In contrast, the findings from the surveillance bronchoscopies performed on LTRs led to a change in the previous treatment in only 6 % of the cases. Pneumocystis carinii and CMV were the most commonly detected pathogens. Furthermore, 15 (65 %) of the P. carinii infections in the LTRs were detected during chemoprophylaxis. None of the complications of the bronchoscopies were fatal. Antigenemia, DNAemia, and mRNAemia were present in 98 %, 72 %, and 43 % of the CMV infections, respectively. The optimal DNAemia cut-off levels (sensitivity/specificity) were 400 (75.9/92.7 %), 850 (91.3/91.3 %), and 1250 (100/91.5 %) copies/ml for the antigenemia of 2, 5, and 10 pp65-positive leukocytes/50 000 leukocytes, respectively. The sensitivities of the NASBA were 25.9, 43.5, and 56.3 % in detecting the same cut-off levels. CMV DNAemia was detected in 93 % and mRNAemia in 61 % of the CMV antigenemias requiring antiviral therapy. HHV-6, HHV-7, and CMV antigenemia was detected in 20 (91 %), 11 (50 %), and 12 (55 %) of the 22 LTRs (median 16, 31, and 165 days), respectively. HHV-6 appeared in 15 (79 %), HHV-7 in seven (37 %), and CMV in one (7 %) of these patients during ganciclovir or valganciclovir prophylaxis. One case of pneumonitis and another of encephalitis were associated with HHV-6. In conclusion, bronchoscopy is a safe and useful diagnostic tool in LTRs and HTRs with a suspected respiratory infection, but the role of surveillance bronchoscopy in LTRs remains controversial. The PCR assay acts comparably with the antigenemia test in guiding the pre-emptive therapy against CMV when threshold levels of over 5 pp65-antigen positive leukocytes are used. In contrast, the low sensitivity of NASBA limits its usefulness. HHV-6 and HHV-7 activation is common after lung transplantation despite ganciclovir or valganciclovir prophylaxis, but clinical manifestations are infrequently linked to them.

Agricultural expansion and climate change in the Taita Hills, Kenya: an assessment of potential environmental impacts

The indigenous cloud forests in the Taita Hills have suffered substantial degradation for several centuries due to agricultural expansion. Currently, only 1% of the original forested area remains preserved in this region. Furthermore, climate change imposes an imminent threat for local economy and environmental sustainability. In such circumstances, elaborating tools to conciliate socioeconomic growth and natural resources conservation is an enormous challenge. This dissertation tackles essential aspects for understanding the ongoing agricultural activities in the Taita Hills and their potential environmental consequences in the future. Initially, alternative methods were designed to improve our understanding of the ongoing agricultural activities. Namely, methods for agricultural survey planning and to estimate evapotranspiration were evaluated, taking into account a number of limitations regarding data and resources availability. Next, this dissertation evaluates how upcoming agricultural expansion, together with climate change, will affect the natural resources in the Taita Hills up to the year 2030. The driving forces of agricultural expansion in the region were identified as aiming to delineate future landscape scenarios and evaluate potential impacts from the soil and water conservation point of view. In order to investigate these issues and answer the research questions, this dissertation combined state of the art modelling tools with renowned statistical methods. The results indicate that, if current trends persist, agricultural areas will occupy roughly 60% of the study area by 2030. Although the simulated land use changes will certainly increase soil erosion figures, new croplands are likely to come up predominantly in the lowlands, which comprise areas with lower soil erosion potential. By 2030, rainfall erosivity is likely to increase during April and November due to climate change. Finally, this thesis addressed the potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate changes on Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR), which is considered another major issue in the context of the relations between land use and climate. Although the simulations indicate that climate change will likely increase annual volumes of rainfall during the following decades, IWR will continue to increase due to agricultural expansion. By 2030, new cropland areas may cause an increase of approximately 40% in the annual volume of water necessary for irrigation.