Studies on the international effects of real shocks

This doctoral thesis addresses the macroeconomic effects of real shocks in open economies in flexible exchange rate regimes. The first study of this thesis analyses the welfare effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy, where private and government consumption are substitutes in terms of private utility. The main findings are as follows: fiscal policy raises output, bringing it closer to its efficient level, but is not welfare-improving even though government spending directly affects private utility. The main reason for this is that the introduction of useful government spending implies a larger crowding-out effect on private consumption, when compared with the `pure waste' case. Utility decreases since one unit of government consumption yields less utility than one unit of private consumption. The second study of this thesis analyses the question of how the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy depend on optimal intertemporal behaviour. The key result is that the effects of fiscal policy depend on the size of the elasticity of substitution between traded and nontraded goods. In particular, the sign of the current account response to fiscal policy depends on the interplay between the intertemporal elasticity of aggregate consumption and the elasticity of substitution between traded and nontraded goods. The third study analyses the consequences of productive government spending on the international transmission of fiscal policy. A standard result in the New Open Economy Macroeconomics literature is that a fiscal shock depreciates the exchange rate. I demonstrate that the response of the exchange rate depends on the productivity of government spending. If productivity is sufficiently high, a fiscal shock appreciates the exchange rate. It is also shown that the introduction of productive government spending increases both domestic and foreign welfare, when compared with the case where government spending is wasted. The fourth study analyses the question of how the international transmission of technology shocks depends on the specification of nominal rigidities. A growing body of empirical evidence suggests that a positive technology shock leads to a temporary decline in employment. In this study, I demonstrate that the open economy dimension can enhance the ability of sticky price models to account for the evidence. The reasoning is as follows. An improvement in technology appreciates the nominal exchange rate. Under producer-currency pricing, the exchange rate appreciation shifts global demand toward foreign goods away from domestic goods. This causes a temporary decline in domestic employment.

Essays on Misplanning Wealth and Health: A Behavioural Approach

The dissertation consists of three essays on misplanning wealth and health accumulation. The conventional economics assumes that individual's intertemporal preferences are exponential (exponential preferences, EP). Recent findings in behavioural economics have shown that, actually, people do discount near future relatively heavier than distant future. This implies hyperbolic intertemporal preferences (HP). Essays I and II concentrate especially on the effects of a delayed completion of tasks, a feature of behaviour that HP enables. Essay III uses current Finnish data to analyse the evolvement of the quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and inconsistencies in measuring that. Essay I studies the existence effects of a lucrative retirement savings program (SP) on the retirement savings of different individual types having HP. If the individual does not know that he will have HP also in the future, i.e. he is the naïve, for certain conditions, he delays the enrolment on SP until he abandons it. Very interesting finding is that the naïve retires then poorer in the presence than in the absence of SP. For the same conditions, the individual who knows that he will have HP also in the future, i.e. he is the sophisticated, gains from the existence of SP, and retires with greater retirement savings in the presence than in the absence of SP. Finally, capabilities to learn from past behaviour and about intertemporal preferences improve possibilities to gain from the existence but an adequate time to learn must be then guaranteed. Essay II studies delayed doctor's visits, theirs effects on the costs of a public health care system and government's attempts to control patient behaviour and fund the system. The controlling devices are a consultation fee and a deductible for that. The deductible is effective only for a patient whose diagnosis reveals a disease that would not get cured without the doctor's visit. The naives delay their visits the longest while EP-patients are the quickest visitors. To control the naives, the government should implement a low fee and a high deductible, while for the sophisticates the opposite is true. Finally, if all the types exist in an economy then using an incorrect conventional assumption that all individuals have EP leads to worse situation and requires higher tax rates than assuming incorrectly but unconventionally that only the naives exists. Essay III studies the development of QALYs in Finland 1995/96-2004. The essay concentrates on developing a consistent measure, i.e. independent of discounting, for measuring the age and gender specific QALY-changes and their incidences. For the given time interval, use of a relative change out of an attainable change seems to be almost intact to discounting and reveals that the greatest gains are for older age groups.

Three Essays on the Volatility of Finnish Stock Returns (summary section only)

First, in Essay 1, we test whether it is possible to forecast Finnish Options Index return volatility by examining the out-of-sample predictive ability of several common volatility models with alternative well-known methods; and find additional evidence for the predictability of volatility and for the superiority of the more complicated models over the simpler ones. Secondly, in Essay 2, the aggregated volatility of stocks listed on the Helsinki Stock Exchange is decomposed into a market, industry-and firm-level component, and it is found that firm-level (i.e., idiosyncratic) volatility has increased in time, is more substantial than the two former, predicts GDP growth, moves countercyclically and as well as the other components is persistent. Thirdly, in Essay 3, we are among the first in the literature to seek for firm-specific determinants of idiosyncratic volatility in a multivariate setting, and find for the cross-section of stocks listed on the Helsinki Stock Exchange that industrial focus, trading volume, and block ownership, are positively associated with idiosyncratic volatility estimates––obtained from both the CAPM and the Fama and French three-factor model with local and international benchmark portfolios––whereas a negative relation holds between firm age as well as size and idiosyncratic volatility.

Screening Cycles

We demonstrate how endogenous information acquisition in credit markets creates lending cycles when competing banks undertake their screening decisions in an uncoordinated way, thereby highlighting the role of intertemporal screening externalities induced by lending market competition as a structural source of instability. We show that uncoordinated screening behavior of competing banks may be not only the source of an important financial multiplier, but also an independent source of fluctuations inducing business cycles. The screening cycle mechanism is robust to generalizations along many dimensions such as the lending market structure, the lending rate determination and the imperfections in the screening technology.

Aspiration-based utility functions in a planning model for timber flow management.

The study presents a theory of utility models based on aspiration levels, as well as the application of this theory to the planning of timber flow economics. The first part of the study comprises a derivation of the utility-theoretic basis for the application of aspiration levels. Two basic models are dealt with: the additive and the multiplicative. Applied here solely for partial utility functions, aspiration and reservation levels are interpreted as defining piecewisely linear functions. The standpoint of the choices of the decision-maker is emphasized by the use of indifference curves. The second part of the study introduces a model for the management of timber flows. The model is based on the assumption that the decision-maker is willing to specify a shape of income flow which is different from that of the capital-theoretic optimum. The utility model comprises four aspiration-based compound utility functions. The theory and the flow model are tested numerically by computations covering three forest holdings. The results show that the additive model is sensitive even to slight changes in relative importances and aspiration levels. This applies particularly to nearly linear production possibility boundaries of monetary variables. The multiplicative model, on the other hand, is stable because it generates strictly convex indifference curves. Due to a higher marginal rate of substitution, the multiplicative model implies a stronger dependence on forest management than the additive function. For income trajectory optimization, a method utilizing an income trajectory index is more efficient than one based on the use of aspiration levels per management period. Smooth trajectories can be attained by squaring the deviations of the feasible trajectories from the desired one.