Analyzing changes in macro-level drivers of country-specific emissions : The role of consumption, technology and trade

Industrial ecology is an important field of sustainability science. It can be applied to study environmental problems in a policy relevant manner. Industrial ecology uses ecosystem analogy; it aims at closing the loop of materials and substances and at the same time reducing resource consumption and environmental emissions. Emissions from human activities are related to human interference in material cycles. Carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are essential elements for all living organisms, but in excess have negative environmental impacts, such as climate change (CO2, CH4 N2O), acidification (NOx) and eutrophication (N, P). Several indirect macro-level drivers affect emissions change. Population and affluence (GDP/capita) often act as upward drivers for emissions. Technology, as emissions per service used, and consumption, as economic intensity of use, may act as drivers resulting in a reduction in emissions. In addition, the development of country-specific emissions is affected by international trade. The aim of this study was to analyse changes in emissions as affected by macro-level drivers in different European case studies. ImPACT decomposition analysis (IPAT identity) was applied as a method in papers I III. The macro-level perspective was applied to evaluate CO2 emission reduction targets (paper II) and the sharing of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets (paper IV) in the European Union (EU27) up to the year 2020. Data for the study were mainly gathered from official statistics. In all cases, the results were discussed from an environmental policy perspective. The development of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions was analysed in the Finnish energy sector during a long time period, 1950 2003 (paper I). Finnish emissions of NOx began to decrease in the 1980s as the progress in technology in terms of NOx/energy curbed the impact of the growth in affluence and population. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions related to energy use during 1993 2004 (paper II) were analysed by country and region within the European Union. Considering energy-based CO2 emissions in the European Union, dematerialization and decarbonisation did occur, but not sufficiently to offset population growth and the rapidly increasing affluence during 1993 2004. The development of nitrogen and phosphorus load from aquaculture in relation to salmonid consumption in Finland during 1980 2007 was examined, including international trade in the analysis (paper III). A regional environmental issue, eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, and a marginal, yet locally important source of nutrients was used as a case. Nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture decreased from the 1990s onwards: although population, affluence and salmonid consumption steadily increased, aquaculture technology improved and the relative share of imported salmonids increased. According to the sustainability challenge in industrial ecology, the environmental impact of the growing population size and affluence should be compensated by improvements in technology (emissions/service used) and with dematerialisation. In the studied cases, the emission intensity of energy production could be lowered for NOx by cleaning the exhaust gases. Reorganization of the structure of energy production as well as technological innovations will be essential in lowering the emissions of both CO2 and NOx. Regarding the intensity of energy use, making the combustion of fuels more efficient and reducing energy use are essential. In reducing nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture to the Baltic Sea (paper III) through technology, limits of biological and physical properties of cultured fish, among others, will eventually be faced. Regarding consumption, salmonids are preferred to many other protein sources. Regarding trade, increasing the proportion of imports will outsource the impacts. Besides improving technology and dematerialization, other viewpoints may also be needed. Reducing the total amount of nutrients cycling in energy systems and eventually contributing to NOx emissions needs to be emphasized. Considering aquaculture emissions, nutrient cycles can be partly closed through using local fish as feed replacing imported feed. In particular, the reduction of CO2 emissions in the future is a very challenging task when considering the necessary rates of dematerialisation and decarbonisation (paper II). Climate change mitigation may have to focus on other greenhouse gases than CO2 and on the potential role of biomass as a carbon sink, among others. The global population is growing and scaling up the environmental impact. Population issues and growing affluence must be considered when discussing emission reductions. Climate policy has only very recently had an influence on emissions, and strong actions are now called for climate change mitigation. Environmental policies in general must cover all the regions related to production and impacts in order to avoid outsourcing of emissions and leakage effects. The macro-level drivers affecting changes in emissions can be identified with the ImPACT framework. Statistics for generally known macro-indicators are currently relatively well available for different countries, and the method is transparent. In the papers included in this study, a similar method was successfully applied in different types of case studies. Using transparent macro-level figures and a simple top-down approach are also appropriate in evaluating and setting international emission reduction targets, as demonstrated in papers II and IV. The projected rates of population and affluence growth are especially worth consideration in setting targets. However, sensitivities in calculations must be carefully acknowledged. In the basic form of the ImPACT model, the economic intensity of consumption and emission intensity of use are included. In seeking to examine consumption but also international trade in more detail, imports were included in paper III. This example demonstrates well how outsourcing of production influences domestic emissions. Country-specific production-based emissions have often been used in similar decomposition analyses. Nevertheless, trade-related issues must not be ignored.

Global processes, local strategies : migration of educated Dominicans.

The aim of this thesis is to examine migration of educated Dominicans in light of global processes. Current global developments have resulted in increasingly global movements of people, yet people tend to come from certain places in large numbers rather than others. At the same time, international migration is increasingly selective, which shows in the disproportional number of educated migrants. This study discovers individual and societal motivations that explain why young educated Dominicans decide to migrate and return. The theoretical framework of this thesis underlines that migration is a dynamic process rooted in other global developments. Migratory movements should be seen as a result of interacting macro- and microstructures, which are linked by a number of intermediate mechanisms, meso-structures. The way individuals perceive opportunity structures concretises the way global developments mediate to the micro-level. The case of the Dominican Republic shows that there is a diversity of local responses to the world system, as Dominicans have produced their own unique historical responses to global changes. The thesis explains that Dominican migration is importantly conditioned by socioeconomic and educational background. Migration is more accessible for the educated middle class, because of the availability of better resources. Educated migrants also seem less likely to rely on networks to organize their migrations. The role of networks in migration differs by socioeconomic background on the one hand, and by the specific connections each individual has to current and previous migrants on the other hand. The personal and cultural values of the migrant are also pivotal. The central argument of this thesis is that a veritable culture of migration has evolved in the Dominican Republic. The actual economic, political and social circumstances have led many Dominicans to believe that there are better opportunities elsewhere. The globalisation of certain expectations on the one hand, and the development of the specifically Dominican feeling of ‘externalism’ on the other, have for their part given rise to the Dominican culture of migration. The study also suggests that the current Dominican development model encourages migration. Besides global structures, local structures are found to ve pivotal in determining how global processes are materialised in a specific place. The research for this thesis was conducted by using qualitative methodology. The focus of this thesis was on thematic interviews that reveal the subject’s point of view and give a fuller understanding of migration and mobility of the educated. The data was mainly collected during a field research phase in Santo Domingo, the Dominican Republic in December 2009 and January 2010. The principal material consists of ten thematic interviews held with educated Dominican current or former migrants. Four expert interviews, relevant empirical data, theoretical literature and newspaper articles were also comprehensively used.

Antarctic ice shelf melting and its impact on the global sea ice-ocean system

Earth s ice shelves are mainly located in Antarctica. They cover about 44% of the Antarctic coastline and are a salient feature of the continent. Antarctic ice shelf melting (AISM) removes heat from and inputs freshwater into the adjacent Southern Ocean. Although playing an important role in the global climate, AISM is one of the most important components currently absent in the IPCC climate model. In this study, AISM is introduced into a global sea ice-ocean climate model ORCA2-LIM, following the approach of Beckmann and Goosse (2003; BG03) for the thermodynamic interaction between the ice shelf and ocean. This forms the model ORCA2-LIM-ISP (ISP: ice shelf parameterization), in which not only all the major Antarctic ice shelves but also a number of minor ice shelves are included. Using these two models, ORCA2-LIM and ORCA2-LIM-ISP, the impact of addition of AISM and increasing AISM have been investigated. Using the ORCA2-LIM model, numerical experiments are performed to investigate the sensitivity of the polar sea ice cover and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport through Drake Passage (DP) to the variations of three sea ice parameters, namely the thickness of newly formed ice in leads (h0), the compressive strength of ice (P*), and the turning angle in the oceanic boundary layer beneath sea ice (θ). It is found that the magnitudes of h0 and P* have little impact on the seasonal sea ice extent, but lead to large changes in the seasonal sea ice volume. The variation in turning angle has little impact on the sea ice extent and volume in the Arctic but tends to reduce them in the Antarctica when ignored. The magnitude of P* has the least impact on the DP transport, while the other two parameters have much larger influences. Numerical results from ORCA2-LIM and ORCA2-LIM-ISP are analyzed to investigate how the inclusion of AISM affects the representation of the Southern Ocean hydrography. Comparisons with data from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) show that the addition of AISM significantly improves the simulated hydrography. It not only warms and freshens the originally too cold and too saline bottom water (AABW), but also warms and enriches the salinity of the originally too cold and too fresh warm deep water (WDW). Addition of AISM also improves the simulated stratification. The close agreement between the simulation with AISM and the observations suggests that the applied parameterization is an adequate way to include the effect of AISM in a global sea ice-ocean climate model. We also investigate the models capability to represent the sea ice-ocean system in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Arctic regions. Our study shows both models (with and without AISM) can successfully reproduce the main features of the sea ice-ocean system. However, both tend to overestimate the ice flux through the Nares Strait, produce a lower temperature and salinity in the Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay and Davis Strait, and miss the deep convection in the Labrador Sea. These deficiencies are mainly attributed to the artificial enlargement of the Nares Strait in the model. In this study, the impact of increasing AISM on the global sea ice-ocean system is thoroughly investigated. This provides a first idea regarding changes induced by increasing AISM. It is shown that the impact of increasing AISM is global and most significant in the Southern Ocean. There, increasing AISM tends to freshen the surface water, to warm the intermediate and deep waters, and to freshen and warm the bottom water. In addition, increasing AISM also leads to changes in the mixed layer depths (MLD) in the deep convection sites in the Southern Ocean, deepening in the Antarctic continental shelf while shoaling in the ACC region. Furthermore, increasing AISM influences the current system in the Southern Ocean. It tends to weaken the ACC, and strengthen the Antarctic coastal current (ACoC) as well as the Weddell Gyre and the Ross Gyre. In addition to the ocean system, increasing AISM also has a notable impact on the Antarctic sea ice cover. Due to the cooling of seawater, sea ice concentration and thickness generally become higher. In austral winter, noticeable increases in sea ice concentration mainly take place near the ice edge. In regards with sea ice thickness, large increases are mainly found along the coast of the Weddell Sea, the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas, and the Ross Sea. The overall thickening of sea ice leads to a larger volume of sea ice in Antarctica. In the North Atlantic, increasing AISM leads to remarkable changes in temperature, salinity and density. The water generally becomes warmer, more saline and denser. The most significant warming occurs in the subsurface layer. In contrast, the maximum salinity increase is found at the surface. In addition, the MLD becomes larger along the Greenland-Scotland-Iceland ridge. Global teleconnections due to AISM are studied. The AISM signal is transported with the surface current: the additional freshwater from AISM tends to enhance the northward spreading of the surface water. As a result, more warm and saline water is transported from the tropical region to the North Atlantic Ocean, resulting in warming and salt enrichment there. It would take about 30 40 years to establish a systematic noticeable change in temperature, salinity and MLD in the North Atlantic Ocean according to this study. The changes in hydrography due to increasing AISM are compared with observations. Consistency suggests that increasing AISM is highly likely a major contributor to the recent observed changes in the Southern Ocean. In addition, the AISM might contribute to the salinity contrast between the North Atlantic and North Pacific, which is important for the global thermohaline circulation.

Global Processes, Local Strategies : migration of educated Dominicans.

The aim of this thesis is to examine migration of educated Dominicans in light of global processes. Current global developments have resulted in increasingly global movements of people, yet people tend to come from certain places in large numbers rather than others. At the same time, international migration is increasingly selective, which shows in the disproportional number of educated migrants. This study discovers individual and societal motivations that explain why young educated Dominicans decide to migrate and return. The theoretical framework of this thesis underlines that migration is a dynamic process rooted in other global developments. Migratory movements should be seen as a result of interacting macro- and microstructures, which are linked by a number of intermediate mechanisms, meso-structures. The way individuals perceive opportunity structures concretises the way global developments mediate to the micro-level. The case of the Dominican Republic shows that there is a diversity of local responses to the world system, as Dominicans have produced their own unique historical responses to global changes. The thesis explains that Dominican migration is importantly conditioned by socioeconomic and educational background. Migration is more accessible for the educated middle class, because of the availability of better resources. Educated migrants also seem less likely to rely on networks to organize their migrations. The role of networks in migration differs by socioeconomic background on the one hand, and by the specific connections each individual has to current and previous migrants on the other hand. The personal and cultural values of the migrant are also pivotal. The central argument of this thesis is that a veritable culture of migration has evolved in the Dominican Republic. The actual economic, political and social circumstances have led many Dominicans to believe that there are better opportunities elsewhere. The globalisation of certain expectations on the one hand, and the development of the specifically Dominican feeling of ‘externalism’ on the other, have for their part given rise to the Dominican culture of migration. The study also suggests that the current Dominican development model encourages migration. Besides global structures, local structures are found to ve pivotal in determining how global processes are materialised in a specific place. The research for this thesis was conducted by using qualitative methodology. The focus of this thesis was on thematic interviews that reveal the subject’s point of view and give a fuller understanding of migration and mobility of the educated. The data was mainly collected during a field research phase in Santo Domingo, the Dominican Republic in December 2009 and January 2010. The principal material consists of ten thematic interviews held with educated Dominican current or former migrants. Four expert interviews, relevant empirical data, theoretical literature and newspaper articles were also comprehensively used.

Local systems, global impacts : Using life cycle assessment to analyse the potential and constraints of industrial symbioses

Human activities extract and displace different substances and materials from the earth s crust, thus causing various environmental problems, such as climate change, acidification and eutrophication. As problems have become more complicated, more holistic measures that consider the origins and sources of pollutants have been called for. Industrial ecology is a field of science that forms a comprehensive framework for studying the interactions between the modern technological society and the environment. Industrial ecology considers humans and their technologies to be part of the natural environment, not separate from it. Industrial operations form natural systems that must also function as such within the constraints set by the biosphere. Industrial symbiosis (IS) is a central concept of industrial ecology. Industrial symbiosis studies look at the physical flows of materials and energy in local industrial systems. In an ideal IS, waste material and energy are exchanged by the actors of the system, thereby reducing the consumption of virgin material and energy inputs and the generation of waste and emissions. Companies are seen as part of the chains of suppliers and consumers that resemble those of natural ecosystems. The aim of this study was to analyse the environmental performance of an industrial symbiosis based on pulp and paper production, taking into account life cycle impacts as well. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for quantitatively and systematically evaluating the environmental aspects of a product, technology or service throughout its whole life cycle. Moreover, the Natural Step Sustainability Principles formed a conceptual framework for assessing the environmental performance of the case study symbiosis (Paper I). The environmental performance of the case study symbiosis was compared to four counterfactual reference scenarios in which the actors of the symbiosis operated on their own. The research methods used were process-based life cycle assessment (LCA) (Papers II and III) and hybrid LCA, which combines both process and input-output LCA (Paper IV). The results showed that the environmental impacts caused by the extraction and processing of the materials and the energy used by the symbiosis were considerable. If only the direct emissions and resource use of the symbiosis had been considered, less than half of the total environmental impacts of the system would have been taken into account. When the results were compared with the counterfactual reference scenarios, the net environmental impacts of the symbiosis were smaller than those of the reference scenarios. The reduction in environmental impacts was mainly due to changes in the way energy was produced. However, the results are sensitive to the way the reference scenarios are defined. LCA is a useful tool for assessing the overall environmental performance of industrial symbioses. It is recommended that in addition to the direct effects, the upstream impacts should be taken into account as well when assessing the environmental performance of industrial symbioses. Industrial symbiosis should be seen as part of the process of improving the environmental performance of a system. In some cases, it may be more efficient, from an environmental point of view, to focus on supply chain management instead.