Non-industrial private forest landowners’ choices of timber management strategies and potential allowable cut.

In the study, the potential allowable cut in the district of Pohjois-Savo - based on the non-industrial private forest landowners' (NIPF) choices of timber management strategies - was clarified. Alternative timber management strategies were generated, and the choices and factors affecting the choices of timber management strategies by NIPF landowners were studied. The choices of timber management strategies were solved by maximizing the utility functions of the NIPF landowners. The parameters of the utility functions were estimated using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The level of the potential allowable cut was compared to the cutting budgets based on the 7th and 8th National Forest Inventories (NFI7 and NFI8), to the combining of private forestry plans, and to the realized drain from non-industrial private forests. The potential allowable cut was calculated using the same MELA system as has been used in the calculation of the national cutting budget. The data consisted of the NIPF holdings (from the TASO planning system) that had been inventoried compartmentwise and had forestry plans made during the years 1984-1992. The NIPF landowners' choices of timber management strategies were clarified by a two-phase mail inquiry. The most preferred strategy obtained was "sustainability" (chosen by 62 % of landowners). The second in order of preference was "finance" (17 %) and the third was "saving" (11 %). "No cuttings", and "maximum cuttings" were the least preferred (9 % and 1 %, resp.). The factors promoting the choices of strategies with intensive cuttings were a) "farmer as forest owner" and "owning fields", b) "increase in the size of the forest holding", c) agriculture and forestry orientation in production, d) "decreasing short term stumpage earning expectations", e) "increasing intensity of future cuttings", and f) "choice of forest taxation system based on site productivity". The potential allowable cut defined in the study was 20 % higher than the average of the realized drain during the years 1988-1993, which in turn, was at the same level as the cutting budget based on the combining of forestry plans in eastern Finland. Respectively, the potential allowable cut defined in the study was 12 % lower than the NFI8-based greatest sustained allowable cut for the 1990s. Using the method presented in this study, timber management strategies can be clarified for non-industrial private forest landowners in different parts of Finland. Based on the choices of timber managemet strategies, regular cutting budgets can be calculated more realistically than before.

Non-industrial private forest landowners’ choices of timber management strategies.

The factors affecting the non-industrial, private forest landowners' (hereafter referred to using the acronym NIPF) strategic decisions in management planning are studied. A genetic algorithm is used to induce a set of rules predicting potential cut of the landowners' choices of preferred timber management strategies. The rules are based on variables describing the characteristics of the landowners and their forest holdings. The predictive ability of a genetic algorithm is compared to linear regression analysis using identical data sets. The data are cross-validated seven times applying both genetic algorithm and regression analyses in order to examine the data-sensitivity and robustness of the generated models. The optimal rule set derived from genetic algorithm analyses included the following variables: mean initial volume, landowner's positive price expectations for the next eight years, landowner being classified as farmer, and preference for the recreational use of forest property. When tested with previously unseen test data, the optimal rule set resulted in a relative root mean square error of 0.40. In the regression analyses, the optimal regression equation consisted of the following variables: mean initial volume, proportion of forestry income, intention to cut extensively in future, and positive price expectations for the next two years. The R2 of the optimal regression equation was 0.34 and the relative root mean square error obtained from the test data was 0.38. In both models, mean initial volume and positive stumpage price expectations were entered as significant predictors of potential cut of preferred timber management strategy. When tested with the complete data set of 201 observations, both the optimal rule set and the optimal regression model achieved the same level of accuracy.

Environmental factors and uncertainty in fisheries management in the northern Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is a geologically young, large brackish water basin, and few of the species living there have fully adapted to its special conditions. Many of the species live on the edge of their distribution range in terms of one or more environmental variables such as salinity or temperature. Environmental fluctuations are know to cause fluctuations in populations abundance, and this effect is especially strong near the edges of the distribution range, where even small changes in an environmental variable can be critical to the success of a species. This thesis examines which environmental factors are the most important in relation to the success of various commercially exploited fish species in the northern Baltic Sea. It also examines the uncertainties related to fish stocks current and potential status as well as to their relationship with their environment. The aim is to quantify the uncertainties related to fisheries and environmental management, to find potential management strategies that can be used to reduce uncertainty in management results and to develop methodology related to uncertainty estimation in natural resources management. Bayesian statistical methods are utilized due to their ability to treat uncertainty explicitly in all parts of the statistical model. The results show that uncertainty about important parameters of even the most intensively studied fish species such as salmon (Salmo salar L.) and Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras L.) is large. On the other hand, management approaches that reduce uncertainty can be found. These include utilising information about ecological similarity of fish stocks and species, and using management variables that are directly related to stock parameters that can be measured easily and without extrapolations or assumptions.

Lake sediment research as a part of lake management - case studies and implications from southern Finland

In Finland one of the most important current issues in the environmental management is the quality of surface waters. The increasing social importance of lakes and water systems has generated wide-ranging interest in lake restoration and management, concerning especially lakes suffering from eutrophication, but also from other environmental impacts. Most of the factors deteriorating the water quality in Finnish lakes are connected to human activities. Especially since the 1940's, the intensified farming practices and conduction of sewage waters from scattered settlements, cottages and industry have affected the lakes, which simultaneously have developed in to recreational areas for a growing number of people. Therefore, this study was focused on small lakes, which are human impacted, located close to settlement areas and have a significant value for local population. The aim of this thesis was to obtain information from lake sediment records for on-going lake restoration activities and to prove that a well planned, properly focused lake sediment study is an essential part of the work related to evaluation, target consideration and restoration of Finnish lakes. Altogether 11 lakes were studied. The study of Lake Kaljasjärvi was related to the gradual eutrophication of the lake. In lakes Ormajärvi, Suolijärvi, Lehee, Pyhäjärvi and Iso-Roine the main focus was on sediment mapping, as well as on the long term changes of the sedimentation, which were compared to Lake Pääjärvi. In Lake Hormajärvi the role of different kind of sedimentation environments in the eutrophication development of the lake's two basins were compared. Lake Orijärvi has not been eutrophied, but the ore exploitation and related acid main drainage from the catchment area have influenced the lake drastically and the changes caused by metal load were investigated. The twin lakes Etujärvi and Takajärvi are slightly eutrophied, but also suffer problems associated with the erosion of the substantial peat accumulations covering the fringe areas of the lakes. These peat accumulations are related to Holocene water level changes, which were investigated. The methods used were chosen case-specifically for each lake. In general, acoustic soundings of the lakes, detailed description of the nature of the sediment and determinations of the physical properties of the sediment, such as water content, loss on ignition and magnetic susceptibility were used, as was grain size analysis. A wide set of chemical analyses was also used. Diatom and chrysophycean cyst analyses were applied, and the diatom inferred total phosphorus content was reconstructed. The results of these studies prove, that the ideal lake sediment study, as a part of a lake management project, should be two-phased. In the first phase, thoroughgoing mapping of sedimentation patterns should be carried out by soundings and adequate corings. The actual sampling, based on the preliminary results, must include at least one long core from the main sedimentation basin for the determining the natural background state of the lake. The recent, artificially impacted development of the lake can then be determined by short-core and surface sediment studies. The sampling must be focused on the basis of the sediment mapping again, and it should represent all different sedimentation environments and bottom dynamic zones, considering the inlets and outlets, as well as the effects of possible point loaders of the lake. In practice, the budget of the lake management projects of is usually limited and only the most essential work and analyses can be carried out. The set of chemical and biological analyses and dating methods must therefore been thoroughly considered and adapted to the specific management problem. The results show also, that information obtained from a properly performed sediment study enhances the planning of the restoration, makes possible to define the target of the remediation activities and improves the cost-efficiency of the project.

Habitat use and population dynamics of brown bears (Ursus arctos) in Scandinavia

Large carnivore populations are currently recovering from past extirpation efforts and expanding back into their original habitats. At the same time human activities have resulted in very few wilderness areas left with suitable habitats and size large enough to maintain populations of large carnivores without human contact. Consequently the long-term future of large carnivores depends on their successful integration into landscapes where humans live. Thus, understanding their behaviour and interaction with surrounding habitats is of utmost importance in the development of management strategies for large carnivores. This applies also to brown bears (Ursus arctos) that were almost exterminated from Scandinavia and Finland at the turn of the century, but are now expanding their range with the current population estimates being approximately 2600 bears in Scandinavia and 840 in Finland. This thesis focuses on the large-scale habitat use and population dynamics of brown bears in Scandinavia with the objective to develop modelling approaches that support the management of bear populations. Habitat analysis shows that bear home ranges occur mainly in forested areas with a low level of human influence relative to surrounding areas. Habitat modelling based on these findings allows identification and quantification of the potentially suitable areas for bears in Scandinavia. Additionally, this thesis presents novel improvements to home range estimation that enable realistic estimates of the effective area required for the bears to establish a home range. This is achieved through fitting to the radio-tracking data to establish the amount of temporal autocorrelation and the proportion of time spent in different habitat types. Together these form a basis for the landscape-level management of the expanding population. Successful management of bears requires also assessment of the consequences of harvest on the population viability. An individual-based simulation model, accounting for the sexually selected infanticide, was used to investigate the possibility of increasing the harvest using different hunting strategies, such as trophy harvest of males. The results indicated that the population can sustain twice the current harvest rate. However, harvest should be changed gradually while carefully monitoring the population growth as some effects of increased harvest may manifest themselves only after a time-delay. The results and methodological improvements in this thesis can be applied to the Finnish bear population and to other large carnivores. They provide grounds for the further development of spatially-realistic management-oriented models of brow bear dynamics that can make projections of the future distribution of bears while accounting for the development of human activities.