Essays on socially optimal phosphorus policies in crop production

Phosphorus is a nutrient needed in crop production. While boosting crop yields it may also accelerate eutrophication in the surface waters receiving the phosphorus runoff. The privately optimal level of phosphorus use is determined by the input and output prices, and the crop response to phosphorus. Socially optimal use also takes into account the impact of phosphorus runoff on water quality. Increased eutrophication decreases the economic value of surface waters by Deteriorating fish stocks, curtailing the potential for recreational activities and by increasing the probabilities of mass algae blooms. In this dissertation, the optimal use of phosphorus is modelled as a dynamic optimization problem. The potentially plant available phosphorus accumulated in soil is treated as a dynamic state variable, the control variable being the annual phosphorus fertilization. For crop response to phosphorus, the state variable is more important than the annual fertilization. The level of this state variable is also a key determinant of the runoff of dissolved, reactive phosphorus. Also the loss of particulate phosphorus due to erosion is considered in the thesis, as well as its mitigation by constructing vegetative buffers. The dynamic model is applied for crop production on clay soils. At the steady state, the analysis focuses on the effects of prices, damage parameterization, discount rate and soil phosphorus carryover capacity on optimal steady state phosphorus use. The economic instruments needed to sustain the social optimum are also analyzed. According to the results the economic incentives should be conditioned on soil phosphorus values directly, rather than on annual phosphorus applications. The results also emphasize the substantial effects the differences in varying discount rates of the farmer and the social planner have on optimal instruments. The thesis analyzes the optimal soil phosphorus paths from its alternative initial levels. It also examines how erosion susceptibility of a parcel affects these optimal paths. The results underline the significance of the prevailing soil phosphorus status on optimal fertilization levels. With very high initial soil phosphorus levels, both the privately and socially optimal phosphorus application levels are close to zero as the state variable is driven towards its steady state. The soil phosphorus processes are slow. Therefore, depleting high phosphorus soils may take decades. The thesis also presents a methodologically interesting phenomenon in problems of maximizing the flow of discounted payoffs. When both the benefits and damages are related to the same state variable, the steady state solution may have an interesting property, under very general conditions: The tail of the payoffs of the privately optimal path as well as the steady state may provide a higher social welfare than the respective tail of the socially optimal path. The result is formalized and an applied to the created framework of optimal phosphorus use.

Silvicultural decisions based on simulation-optimization systems

Forest management is facing new challenges under climate change. By adjusting thinning regimes, conventional forest management can be adapted to various objectives of utilization of forest resources, such as wood quality, forest bioenergy, and carbon sequestration. This thesis aims to develop and apply a simulation-optimization system as a tool for an interdisciplinary understanding of the interactions between wood science, forest ecology, and forest economics. In this thesis, the OptiFor software was developed for forest resources management. The OptiFor simulation-optimization system integrated the process-based growth model PipeQual, wood quality models, biomass production and carbon emission models, as well as energy wood and commercial logging models into a single optimization model. Osyczka s direct and random search algorithm was employed to identify optimal values for a set of decision variables. The numerical studies in this thesis broadened our current knowledge and understanding of the relationships between wood science, forest ecology, and forest economics. The results for timber production show that optimal thinning regimes depend on site quality and initial stand characteristics. Taking wood properties into account, our results show that increasing the intensity of thinning resulted in lower wood density and shorter fibers. The addition of nutrients accelerated volume growth, but lowered wood quality for Norway spruce. Integrating energy wood harvesting into conventional forest management showed that conventional forest management without energy wood harvesting was still superior in sparse stands of Scots pine. Energy wood from pre-commercial thinning turned out to be optimal for dense stands. When carbon balance is taken into account, our results show that changing carbon assessment methods leads to very different optimal thinning regimes and average carbon stocks. Raising the carbon price resulted in longer rotations and a higher mean annual increment, as well as a significantly higher average carbon stock over the rotation.

A dynamic programming model for optimising feeding and slaughter decisions regarding fattening pigs

Costs of purchasing new piglets and of feeding them until slaughter are the main variable expenditures in pig fattening. They both depend on slaughter intensity, the nature of feeding patterns and the technological constraints of pig fattening, such as genotype. Therefore, it is of interest to examine the effect of production technology and changes in input and output prices on feeding and slaughter decisions. This study examines the problem by using a dynamic programming model that links genetic characteristics of a pig to feeding decisions and the timing of slaughter and takes into account how these jointly affect the quality-adjusted value of a carcass. The model simulates the growth mechanism of a pig under optional feeding and slaughter patterns and then solves the optimal feeding and slaughter decisions recursively. The state of nature and the genotype of a pig are known in the analysis. The main contribution of this study is the dynamic approach that explicitly takes into account carcass quality while simultaneously optimising feeding and slaughter decisions. The method maximises the internal rate of return to the capacity unit. Hence, the results can have vital impact on competitiveness of pig production, which is known to be quite capital-intensive. The results suggest that producer can significantly benefit from improvements in the pig's genotype, because they improve efficiency of pig production. The annual benefits from obtaining pigs of improved genotype can be more than €20 per capacity unit. The annual net benefits of animal breeding to pig farms can also be considerable. Animals of improved genotype can reach optimal slaughter maturity quicker and produce leaner meat than animals of poor genotype. In order to fully utilise the benefits of animal breeding, the producer must adjust feeding and slaughter patterns on the basis of genotype. The results suggest that the producer can benefit from flexible feeding technology. The flexible feeding technology segregates pigs into groups according to their weight, carcass leanness, genotype and sex and thereafter optimises feeding and slaughter decisions separately for these groups. Typically, such a technology provides incentives to feed piglets with protein-rich feed such that the genetic potential to produce leaner meat is fully utilised. When the pig approaches slaughter maturity, the share of protein-rich feed in the diet gradually decreases and the amount of energy-rich feed increases. Generally, the optimal slaughter weight is within the weight range that pays the highest price per kilogram of pig meat. The optimal feeding pattern and the optimal timing of slaughter depend on price ratios. Particularly, an increase in the price of pig meat provides incentives to increase the growth rates up to the pig's biological maximum by increasing the amount of energy in the feed. Price changes and changes in slaughter premium can also have large income effects. Key words: barley, carcass composition, dynamic programming, feeding, genotypes, lean, pig fattening, precision agriculture, productivity, slaughter weight, soybeans

Efficient Content-based Routing, Mobility-aware Topologies, and Temporal Subspace Matching

Event-based systems are seen as good candidates for supporting distributed applications in dynamic and ubiquitous environments because they support decoupled and asynchronous many-to-many information dissemination. Event systems are widely used, because asynchronous messaging provides a flexible alternative to RPC (Remote Procedure Call). They are typically implemented using an overlay network of routers. A content-based router forwards event messages based on filters that are installed by subscribers and other routers. The filters are organized into a routing table in order to forward incoming events to proper subscribers and neighbouring routers. This thesis addresses the optimization of content-based routing tables organized using the covering relation and presents novel data structures and configurations for improving local and distributed operation. Data structures are needed for organizing filters into a routing table that supports efficient matching and runtime operation. We present novel results on dynamic filter merging and the integration of filter merging with content-based routing tables. In addition, the thesis examines the cost of client mobility using different protocols and routing topologies. We also present a new matching technique called temporal subspace matching. The technique combines two new features. The first feature, temporal operation, supports notifications, or content profiles, that persist in time. The second feature, subspace matching, allows more expressive semantics, because notifications may contain intervals and be defined as subspaces of the content space. We also present an application of temporal subspace matching pertaining to metadata-based continuous collection and object tracking.

Microsurgical Aneurysm Model in Rats and Mice: Development of Endovascular Treatment and Optimization of Magnetic Resonance Imaging

The rupture of a cerebral artery aneurysm causes a devastating subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), with a mortality of almost 50% during the first month. Each year, 8-11/100 000 people suffer from aneurysmal SAH in Western countries, but the number is twice as high in Finland and Japan. The disease is most common among those of working age, the mean age at rupture being 50-55 years. Unruptured cerebral aneurysms are found in 2-6% of the population, but knowledge about the true risk of rupture is limited. The vast majority of aneurysms should be considered rupture-prone, and treatment for these patients is warranted. Both unruptured and ruptured aneurysms can be treated by either microsurgical clipping or endovascular embolization. In a standard microsurgical procedure, the neck of the aneurysm is closed by a metal clip, sealing off the aneurysm from the circulation. Endovascular embolization is performed by packing the aneurysm from the inside of the vessel lumen with detachable platinum coils. Coiling is associated with slightly lower morbidity and mortality than microsurgery, but the long-term results of microsurgically treated aneurysms are better. Endovascular treatment methods are constantly being developed further in order to achieve better long-term results. New coils and novel embolic agents need to be tested in a variety of animal models before they can be used in humans. In this study, we developed an experimental rat aneurysm model and showed its suitability for testing endovascular devices. We optimized noninvasive MRI sequences at 4.7 Tesla for follow-up of coiled experimental aneurysms and for volumetric measurement of aneurysm neck remnants. We used this model to compare platinum coils with polyglycolic-polylactic acid (PGLA) -coated coils, and showed the benefits of the latter in this model. The experimental aneurysm model and the imaging methods also gave insight into the mechanisms involved in aneurysm formation, and the model can be used in the development of novel imaging techniques. This model is affordable, easily reproducible, reliable, and suitable for MRI follow-up. It is also suitable for endovascular treatment, and it evades spontaneous occlusion.

Dynamic nature of proteins - interpretation of residual dipolar couplings

Protein conformations and dynamics can be studied by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy using dilute liquid crystalline samples. This work clarifies the interpretation of residual dipolar coupling data yielded by the experiments. It was discovered that unfolded proteins without any additional structure beyond that of a mere polypeptide chain exhibit residual dipolar couplings. Also, it was found that molecular dynamics induce fluctuations in the molecular alignment and doing so affect residual dipolar couplings. The finding clarified the origins of low order parameter values observed earlier. The work required the development of new analytical and computational methods for the prediction of intrinsic residual dipolar coupling profiles for unfolded proteins. The presented characteristic chain model is able to reproduce the general trend of experimental residual dipolar couplings for denatured proteins. The details of experimental residual dipolar coupling profiles are beyond the analytical model, but improvements are proposed to achieve greater accuracy. A computational method for rapid prediction of unfolded protein residual dipolar couplings was also developed. Protein dynamics were shown to modulate the effective molecular alignment in a dilute liquid crystalline medium. The effects were investigated from experimental and molecular dynamics generated conformational ensembles of folded proteins. It was noted that dynamics induced alignment is significant especially for the interpretation of molecular dynamics in small, globular proteins. A method of correction was presented. Residual dipolar couplings offer an attractive possibility for the direct observation of protein conformational preferences and dynamics. The presented models and methods of analysis provide significant advances in the interpretation of residual dipolar coupling data from proteins.

Towards a Dynamic Communication Model: A Useful Tool in Relationship Communication

In order to bring insight into the emerging concept of relationship communication, concepts from two research traditions will be combined in this paper. Based on those concepts a new model, the dynamic relationship communication model, will be presented. Instead of a company perspective focusing on the integration of outgoing messages such as advertising, public relations and sales activities, it is suggested that the focus should be on factors integrated by the receiver. Such factors can be historical, future, external and internal factors. Thus, the model put a strong focus on the receiver in the communication process. The dynamic communication model is illustrated empirically using it as a tool on 78 short stories about communication. The empirical findings show that relationship communication occurs in some cases; in some cases it does not occur. The model is a useful tool in displaying relationship communication and how it differs from other communication. The importance of the time dimension, historical and future factors, in relationship communications is discussed. The possibility of reducing communications costs by the notion of relationship communication is discussed in managerial implications.

Optimization of sample preparation for next-generation sequencing with Illumina Genome Analyzer II

The growing interest for sequencing with higher throughput in the last decade has led to the development of new sequencing applications. This thesis concentrates on optimizing DNA library preparation for Illumina Genome Analyzer II sequencer. The library preparation steps that were optimized include fragmentation, PCR purification and quantification. DNA fragmentation was performed with focused sonication in different concentrations and durations. Two column based PCR purification method, gel matrix method and magnetic bead based method were compared. Quantitative PCR and gel electrophoresis in a chip were compared for DNA quantification. The magnetic bead purification was found to be the most efficient and flexible purification method. The fragmentation protocol was changed to produce longer fragments to be compatible with longer sequencing reads. Quantitative PCR correlates better with the cluster number and should thus be considered to be the default quantification method for sequencing. As a result of this study more data have been acquired from sequencing with lower costs and troubleshooting has become easier as qualification steps have been added to the protocol. New sequencing instruments and applications will create a demand for further optimizations in future.

Dynamic Factor Models and Forecasting Finnish Macroeconomic Variables

In recent years, thanks to developments in information technology, large-dimensional datasets have been increasingly available. Researchers now have access to thousands of economic series and the information contained in them can be used to create accurate forecasts and to test economic theories. To exploit this large amount of information, researchers and policymakers need an appropriate econometric model.Usual time series models, vector autoregression for example, cannot incorporate more than a few variables. There are two ways to solve this problem: use variable selection procedures or gather the information contained in the series to create an index model. This thesis focuses on one of the most widespread index model, the dynamic factor model (the theory behind this model, based on previous literature, is the core of the first part of this study), and its use in forecasting Finnish macroeconomic indicators (which is the focus of the second part of the thesis). In particular, I forecast economic activity indicators (e.g. GDP) and price indicators (e.g. consumer price index), from 3 large Finnish datasets. The first dataset contains a large series of aggregated data obtained from the Statistics Finland database. The second dataset is composed by economic indicators from Bank of Finland. The last dataset is formed by disaggregated data from Statistic Finland, which I call micro dataset. The forecasts are computed following a two steps procedure: in the first step I estimate a set of common factors from the original dataset. The second step consists in formulating forecasting equations including the factors extracted previously. The predictions are evaluated using relative mean squared forecast error, where the benchmark model is a univariate autoregressive model. The results are dataset-dependent. The forecasts based on factor models are very accurate for the first dataset (the Statistics Finland one), while they are considerably worse for the Bank of Finland dataset. The forecasts derived from the micro dataset are still good, but less accurate than the ones obtained in the first case. This work leads to multiple research developments. The results here obtained can be replicated for longer datasets. The non-aggregated data can be represented in an even more disaggregated form (firm level). Finally, the use of the micro data, one of the major contributions of this thesis, can be useful in the imputation of missing values and the creation of flash estimates of macroeconomic indicator (nowcasting).

Analysis of forest soil chemistry and hydrology with a dynamic model ACIDIC.

In this study we analyze how the ion concentrations in forest soil solution are determined by hydrological and biogeochemical processes. A dynamic model ACIDIC was developed, including processes common to dynamic soil acidification models. The model treats up to eight interacting layers and simulates soil hydrology, transpiration, root water and nutrient uptake, cation exchange, dissolution and reactions of Al hydroxides in solution, and the formation of carbonic acid and its dissociation products. It includes also a possibility to a simultaneous use of preferential and matrix flow paths, enabling the throughfall water to enter the deeper soil layers in macropores without first reacting with the upper layers. Three different combinations of routing the throughfall water via macro- and micropores through the soil profile is presented. The large vertical gradient in the observed total charge was simulated succesfully. According to the simulations, gradient is mostly caused by differences in the intensity of water uptake, sulfate adsorption and organic anion retention at the various depths. The temporal variations in Ca and Mg concentrations were simulated fairly well in all soil layers. For H+, Al and K there were much more variation in the observed than in the simulated concentrations. Flow in macropores is a possible explanation for the apparent disequilibrium of the cation exchange for H+ and K, as the solution H+ and K concentrations have great vertical gradients in soil. The amount of exchangeable H+ increased in the O and E horizons and decreased in the Bs1 and Bs2 horizons, the net change in whole soil profile being a decrease. A large part of the decrease of the exchangeable H+ in the illuvial B horizon was caused by sulfate adsorption. The model produces soil water amounts and solution ion concentrations which are comparable to the measured values, and it can be used in both hydrological and chemical studies of soils.