Dynamic Factor Models and Forecasting Finnish Macroeconomic Variables

In recent years, thanks to developments in information technology, large-dimensional datasets have been increasingly available. Researchers now have access to thousands of economic series and the information contained in them can be used to create accurate forecasts and to test economic theories. To exploit this large amount of information, researchers and policymakers need an appropriate econometric model.Usual time series models, vector autoregression for example, cannot incorporate more than a few variables. There are two ways to solve this problem: use variable selection procedures or gather the information contained in the series to create an index model. This thesis focuses on one of the most widespread index model, the dynamic factor model (the theory behind this model, based on previous literature, is the core of the first part of this study), and its use in forecasting Finnish macroeconomic indicators (which is the focus of the second part of the thesis). In particular, I forecast economic activity indicators (e.g. GDP) and price indicators (e.g. consumer price index), from 3 large Finnish datasets. The first dataset contains a large series of aggregated data obtained from the Statistics Finland database. The second dataset is composed by economic indicators from Bank of Finland. The last dataset is formed by disaggregated data from Statistic Finland, which I call micro dataset. The forecasts are computed following a two steps procedure: in the first step I estimate a set of common factors from the original dataset. The second step consists in formulating forecasting equations including the factors extracted previously. The predictions are evaluated using relative mean squared forecast error, where the benchmark model is a univariate autoregressive model. The results are dataset-dependent. The forecasts based on factor models are very accurate for the first dataset (the Statistics Finland one), while they are considerably worse for the Bank of Finland dataset. The forecasts derived from the micro dataset are still good, but less accurate than the ones obtained in the first case. This work leads to multiple research developments. The results here obtained can be replicated for longer datasets. The non-aggregated data can be represented in an even more disaggregated form (firm level). Finally, the use of the micro data, one of the major contributions of this thesis, can be useful in the imputation of missing values and the creation of flash estimates of macroeconomic indicator (nowcasting).

Studies on Binary Time Series Models with Applications to Empirical Macroeconomics and Finance

This thesis studies binary time series models and their applications in empirical macroeconomics and finance. In addition to previously suggested models, new dynamic extensions are proposed to the static probit model commonly used in the previous literature. In particular, we are interested in probit models with an autoregressive model structure. In Chapter 2, the main objective is to compare the predictive performance of the static and dynamic probit models in forecasting the U.S. and German business cycle recession periods. Financial variables, such as interest rates and stock market returns, are used as predictive variables. The empirical results suggest that the recession periods are predictable and dynamic probit models, especially models with the autoregressive structure, outperform the static model. Chapter 3 proposes a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for the usefulness of the autoregressive structure of the probit model. The finite sample properties of the LM test are considered with simulation experiments. Results indicate that the two alternative LM test statistics have reasonable size and power in large samples. In small samples, a parametric bootstrap method is suggested to obtain approximately correct size. In Chapter 4, the predictive power of dynamic probit models in predicting the direction of stock market returns are examined. The novel idea is to use recession forecast (see Chapter 2) as a predictor of the stock return sign. The evidence suggests that the signs of the U.S. excess stock returns over the risk-free return are predictable both in and out of sample. The new "error correction" probit model yields the best forecasts and it also outperforms other predictive models, such as ARMAX models, in terms of statistical and economic goodness-of-fit measures. Chapter 5 generalizes the analysis of univariate models considered in Chapters 2 4 to the case of a bivariate model. A new bivariate autoregressive probit model is applied to predict the current state of the U.S. business cycle and growth rate cycle periods. Evidence of predictability of both cycle indicators is obtained and the bivariate model is found to outperform the univariate models in terms of predictive power.

Xanthine oxidoreductase in essential hypertension and metabolic syndrome : Experimental studies on rodent models

Hypertension, obesity, dyslipidemia and dysglycemia constitute metabolic syndrome, a major public health concern, which is associated with cardiovascular mortality. High dietary salt (NaCl) is the most important dietary risk factor for elevated blood pressure. The kidney has a major role in salt-sensitive hypertension and is vulnerable to harmful effects of increased blood pressure. Elevated serum urate is a common finding in these disorders. While dysregulation of urate excretion is associated with cardiovascular diseases, present studies aimed to clarify the role of xanthine oxidoreductase (XOR), i.e. xanthine dehydrogenase (XDH) and its post-translational isoform xanthine oxidase (XO), in cardiovascular diseases. XOR yields urate from hypoxanthine and xanthine. Low oxygen levels upregulate XOR in addition to other factors. In present studies higher renal XOR activity was found in hypertension-prone rats than in the controls. Furthermore, NaCl intake increased renal XOR dose-dependently. To clarify whether XOR has any causal role in hypertension, rats were kept on NaCl diets for different periods of time, with or without a XOR inhibitor, allopurinol. While allopurinol did not alleviate hypertension, it prevented left ventricular and renal hypertrophy. Nitric oxide synthases (NOS) produce nitric oxide (NO), which mediates vasodilatation. A paucity of NO, produced by NOS inhibition, aggravated hypertension and induced renal XOR, whereas NO generating drug, alleviated salt-induced hypertension without changes in renal XOR. Zucker fa/fa rat is an animal model of metabolic syndrome. These rats developed substantial obesity and modest hypertension and showed increased hepatic and renal XOR activities. XOR was modified by diet and antihypertensive treatment. Cyclosporine (CsA) is a fungal peptide and one of the first-line immunosuppressive drugs used in the management of organ transplantation. Nephrotoxicity ensue high doses resulting in hypertension and limit CsA use. CsA increased renal XO substantially in salt-sensitive rats on a high NaCl diet, indicating a possible role for this reactive oxygen species generating isoform in CsA nephrotoxicity. Renal hypoxia, common to these rodent models of hypertension and obesity, is one of the plausible XOR inducing factors. Although XOR inhibition did not prevent hypertension, present experimental data indicate that XOR plays a role in the pathology of salt-induced cardiac and renal hypertrophy.

Econometric models of Finnish non-industrial private forest owners' timber supply and timber stock

This dissertation examines the short- and long-run impacts of timber prices and other factors affecting NIPF owners' timber harvesting and timber stocking decisions. The utility-based Faustmann model provides testable hypotheses of the exogenous variables retained in the timber supply analysis. The timber stock function, derived from a two-period biomass harvesting model, is estimated using a two-step GMM estimator based on balanced panel data from 1983 to 1991. Timber supply functions are estimated using a Tobit model adjusted for heteroscedasticity and nonnormality of errors based on panel data from 1994 to 1998. Results show that if specification analysis of the Tobit model is ignored, inconsistency and biasedness can have a marked effect on parameter estimates. The empirical results show that owner's age is the single most important factor determining timber stock; timber price is the single most important factor in harvesting decision. The results of the timber supply estimations can be interpreted using utility-based Faustmann model of a forest owner who values a growing timber in situ.

Stand structural dynamics on pristine and managed boreal peatlands

The objectives of this study were to investigate the stand structure and succession dynamics in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands on pristine peatlands and in Scots pine and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) dominated stands on drained peatlands. Furthermore, my focus was on characterising how the inherent and environmental factors and the intermediate thinnings modify the stand structure and succession. For pristine peatlands, the study was based on inventorial stand data, while for drained peatlands, longitudinal data from repeatedly measured stands were utilised. The studied sites covered the most common peatland site types in Finland. They were classified into two categories according to the ecohydrological properties related to microsite variation and nutrient levels within sites. Tree DBH and age distributions in relation to climate and site type were used to study the stand dynamics on pristine sites. On drained sites, the Weibull function was used to parameterise the DBH distributions and mixed linear models were constructed to characterise the impacts of different ecological factors on stand dynamics. On pristine peatlands, both climate and the ecohydrology of the site proved to be crucial factors determining the stand structure and its dynamics. Irrespective of the vegetation succession, enhanced site productivity and increased stand stocking they significantly affected the stand dynamics also on drained sites. On the most stocked sites on pristine peatlands the inter-tree competition seemed to also be a significant factor modifying stand dynamics. Tree age and size diversity increased with stand age, but levelled out in the long term. After drainage, the stand structural unevenness increased due to the regeneration and/or ingrowth of the trees. This increase was more pronounced on sparsely forested composite sites than on more fully stocked genuine forested sites in Scots pine stands, which further undergo the formation of birch and spruce undergrowth beneath the overstory as succession proceeds. At 20-30 years after drainage the structural heterogeneity started to decrease, indicating increased inter-tree competition, which increased the mortality of suppressed trees within stand. Peatland stands are more dynamic than anticipated and are generally not characterized by a balanced, self-perpetuating structure. On pristine sites, various successional pathways are possible, whereas on drained sites the succession has more uniform trend. Typically, stand succession proceeds without any distinct developmental stages on pristine peatlands, whereas on drained peatlands, at least three distinct stages could be identified. Thinnings had only little impact on the stand succession. The new information on stand dynamics may be utilised, e.g. in forest management planning to facilitate the allocation of the growth resources to the desired crop component by appropriate silvicultural treatments, as well as assist in assessing the effects of the climate change on the forested boreal peatlands.

Oxidative stability of phytosterols in food models and foods

An important safety aspect to be considered when foods are enriched with phytosterols and phytostanols is the oxidative stability of these lipid compounds, i.e. their resistance to oxidation and thus to the formation of oxidation products. This study concentrated on producing scientific data to support this safety evaluation process. In the absence of an official method for analyzing of phytosterol/stanol oxidation products, we first developed a new gas chromatographic - mass spectrometric (GC-MS) method. We then investigated factors affecting these compounds' oxidative stability in lipid-based food models in order to identify critical conditions under which significant oxidation reactions may occur. Finally, the oxidative stability of phytosterols and stanols in enriched foods during processing and storage was evaluated. Enriched foods covered a range of commercially available phytosterol/stanol ingredients, different heat treatments during food processing, and different multiphase food structures. The GC-MS method was a powerful tool for measuring the oxidative stability. Data obtained in food model studies revealed that the critical factors for the formation and distribution of the main secondary oxidation products were sterol structure, reaction temperature, reaction time, and lipid matrix composition. Under all conditions studied, phytostanols as saturated compounds were more stable than unsaturated phytosterols. In addition, esterification made phytosterols more reactive than free sterols at low temperatures, while at high temperatures the situation was the reverse. Generally, oxidation reactions were more significant at temperatures above 100°C. At lower temperatures, the significance of these reactions increased with increasing reaction time. The effect of lipid matrix composition was dependent on temperature; at temperatures above 140°C, phytosterols were more stable in an unsaturated lipid matrix, whereas below 140°C they were more stable in a saturated lipid matrix. At 140°C, phytosterols oxidized at the same rate in both matrices. Regardless of temperature, phytostanols oxidized more in an unsaturated lipid matrix. Generally, the distribution of oxidation products seemed to be associated with the phase of overall oxidation. 7-ketophytosterols accumulated when oxidation had not yet reached the dynamic state. Once this state was attained, the major products were 5,6-epoxyphytosterols and 7-hydroxyphytosterols. The changes observed in phytostanol oxidation products were not as informative since all stanol oxides quantified represented hydroxyl compounds. The formation of these secondary oxidation products did not account for all of the phytosterol/stanol losses observed during the heating experiments, indicating the presence of dimeric, oligomeric or other oxidation products, especially when free phytosterols and stanols were heated at high temperatures. Commercially available phytosterol/stanol ingredients were stable during such food processes as spray-drying and ultra high temperature (UHT)-type heating and subsequent long-term storage. Pan-frying, however, induced phytosterol oxidation and was classified as a rather deteriorative process. Overall, the findings indicated that although phytosterols and stanols are stable in normal food processing conditions, attention should be paid to their use in frying. Complex interactions between other food constituents also suggested that when new phytosterol-enriched foods are developed their oxidative stability must first be established. The results presented here will assist in choosing safe conditions for phytosterol/stanol enrichment.

Land leasing, land degradation and agricultural productivity in Finland

This study analysed whether the land tenure insecurity problem has led to a decline in long-term land improvements (liming and phosphorus fertilization) under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and Nordic production conditions in European Union (EU) countries such as Finland. The results suggests that under traditional cash lease contracts, which are encouraged by the existing land leasing regulations and agricultural subsidy programs, the land tenure insecurity problem on leased land reduces land improvements that have a long pay-back period. In particular, soil pH was found to be significantly lower on land cultivated under a lease contract compared to land owned by the farmers themselves. The results also indicate that land improvements could not be reversed by land markets, because land owners would otherwise have carried out land improvements even if not farming by themselves. To reveal the causality between land tenure and land improvements, the dynamic optimisation problem was solved by a stochastic dynamic programming routine with known parameters for one-period returns and transition equations. The model parameters represented Finnish soil quality and production conditions. The decision rules were solved for alternative likelihood scenarios over the continuation of the fixed-term lease contract. The results suggest that as the probability of non-renewal of the lease contract increases, farmers quickly reduce investments in irreversible land improvements and, thereafter, yields gradually decline. The simulations highlighted the observed trends of a decline in land improvements on land parcels that are cultivated under lease contracts. Land tenure has resulted in the neglect of land improvement in Finland. This study aimed to analyze whether these challenges could be resolved by a tax policy that encourages land sales. Using Finnish data, real estate tax and a temporal relaxation on the taxation of capital gains showed some potential for the restructuring of land ownership. Potential sellers who could not be revealed by traditional logit models were identified with the latent class approach. Those landowners with an intention to sell even without a policy change were sensitive to temporal relaxation in the taxation of capital gains. In the long term, productivity and especially productivity growth are necessary conditions for the survival of farms and the food industry in Finland. Technical progress was found to drive the increase in productivity. The scale had only a moderate effect and for the whole study period (1976–2006) the effect was close to zero. Total factor productivity (TFP) increased, depending on the model, by 0.6–1.7% per year. The results demonstrated that the increase in productivity was hindered by the policy changes introduced in 1995. It is also evidenced that the increase in land leasing is connected to these policy changes. Land institutions and land tenure questions are essential in agricultural and rural policies on all levels, from local to international. Land ownership and land titles are commonly tied to fundamental political, economic and social questions. A fair resolution calls for innovative and new solutions both on national and international levels. However, this seems to be a problem when considering the application of EU regulations to member states inheriting divergent landownership structures and farming cultures. The contribution of this study is in describing the consequences of fitting EU agricultural policy to Finnish agricultural land tenure conditions and heritage.

Death pathways activated in the neurotrophic factor-deprived neurons

Programed cell death (PCD) is a fundamental biological process that is as essential for the development and tissue homeostasis as cell proliferation, differentiation and adaptation. The main mode of PCD - apoptosis - occurs via specifi c pathways, such as mitochondrial or death receptor pathway. In the developing nervous system, programed death broadly occurs, mainly triggered by the defi ciency of different survival-promoting neurotrophic factors, but the respective death pathways are poorly studied. In one of the best-characterized models, sympathetic neurons deprived of nerve growth factor (NGF) die via the classical mitochondrial apoptotic pathway. The main aim of this study was to describe the death programs activated in these and other neuronal populations by using neuronal cultures deprived of other neurotrophic factors. First, this study showed that the cultured sympathetic neurons deprived of glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF) die via a novel non-classical death pathway, in which mitochondria and death receptors are not involved. Indeed, cytochrome c was not released into the cytosol, Bax, caspase-9, and caspase-3 were not involved, and Bcl-xL overexpression did not prevent the death. This pathway involved activation of mixed lineage kinases and c-jun, and crucially requires caspase-2 and -7. Second, it was shown that deprivation of neurotrophin-3 (NT-3) from cultured sensory neurons of the dorsal root ganglia kills them via a dependence receptor pathway, including cleavage of the NT- 3 receptor TrkC and liberation of a pro-apoptotic dependence domain. Indeed, death of NT-3-deprived neurons was blocked by a dominant-negative construct interfering with TrkC cleavage. Also, the uncleavable mutant of TrkC, replacing the siRNA-silenced endogeneous TrkC, was not able to trigger death upon NT-3 removal. Such a pathway was not activated in another subpopulation of sensory neurons deprived of NGF. Third, it was shown that cultured midbrain dopaminergic neurons deprived of GDNF or brainderived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) kills them by still a different pathway, in which death receptors and caspases, but not mitochondria, are activated. Indeed, cytochrome c was not released into the cytosol, Bax was not activated, and Bcl-xL did not block the death, but caspases were necessary for the death of these neurons. Blocking the components of the death receptor pathway - caspase-8, FADD, or Fas - blocked the death, whereas activation of Fas accelerated it. The activity of Fas in the dopaminergic neurons could be controlled by the apoptosis inhibitory molecule FAIML. For these studies we developed a novel assay to study apoptosis in the transfected dopaminergic neurons. Thus, a novel death pathway, characteristic for the dopaminergic neurons was described. The study suggests death receptors as possible targets for the treatment of Parkinson s disease, which is caused by the degeneration of dopaminergic neurons.

Transforming growth factor -beta signaling through Smad3 in allergy : Studies in the mechanisms of asthma, atopic dermatitis and allergic contact reactions

Transforming growth factor β signalling through Smad3 in allergy Allergic diseases, such as atopic dermatitis, asthma, and contact dermatitis are complex diseases influenced by both genetic and environmental factors. It is still unclear why allergy and subsequent allergic disease occur in some individuals but not in others. Transforming growth factor (TGF)-β is an important immunomodulatory and fibrogenic factor that regulates cellular processes in injured and inflamed skin. TGF-β has a significant role in the regulation of the allergen-induced immune response participating in the development of allergic and asthmatic inflammation. TGF-β is known to be an immunomodulatory factor in the progression of delayed type hypersensitivity reactions and allergic contact dermatitis. TGF-β is crucial in regulating the cellular responses involved in allergy, such as differentiation, proliferation and migration. TGF-β signals are delivered from the cytoplasm to the nucleus by TGF-β signal transducers called Smads. Smad3 is a major signal transducer in TGF-β -signalling that controls the expression of target genes in the nucleus in a cell-type specific manner. The role of TGF-β-Smad3 -signalling in the immunoregulation and pathophysiology of allergic disorders is still poorly understood. In this thesis, the role of TGF-β-Smad -signalling pathway using Smad3 -deficient knock out mice in the murine models of allergic diseases; atopic dermatitis, asthma and allergic contact reactions, was examined. Smad3-pathway regulates allergen induced skin inflammation and systemic IgE antibody production in a murine model atopic dermatitis. The defect in Smad3 -signalling decreased Th2 cytokine (IL-13 and IL-5) mRNA expression in the lung, modulated allergen induced specific IgG1 response, and affected mucus production in the lung in a murine model of asthma. TGF-β / Smad3 -signalling contributed to inflammatory hypersensitivity reactions and disease progression via modulation of chemokine and cytokine expression and inflammatory cell recruitment, cell proliferation and regulation of the specific antibody response in a murine model of contact hypersensitivity. TGF-β modulates inflammatory responses - at least partly through the Smad3 pathway - but also through other compensatory, non-Smad-dependent pathways. Understanding the effects of the TGF-β signalling pathway in the immune system and in disease models can help in elucidating the multilevel effects of TGF-β. Unravelling the mechanisms of Smad3 may open new possibilities for treating and preventing allergic responses, which may lead to severe illness and loss of work ability. In the future the Smad3 signalling pathway might be a potential target in the therapy of allergic diseases.

Dynamic nature of proteins - interpretation of residual dipolar couplings

Protein conformations and dynamics can be studied by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy using dilute liquid crystalline samples. This work clarifies the interpretation of residual dipolar coupling data yielded by the experiments. It was discovered that unfolded proteins without any additional structure beyond that of a mere polypeptide chain exhibit residual dipolar couplings. Also, it was found that molecular dynamics induce fluctuations in the molecular alignment and doing so affect residual dipolar couplings. The finding clarified the origins of low order parameter values observed earlier. The work required the development of new analytical and computational methods for the prediction of intrinsic residual dipolar coupling profiles for unfolded proteins. The presented characteristic chain model is able to reproduce the general trend of experimental residual dipolar couplings for denatured proteins. The details of experimental residual dipolar coupling profiles are beyond the analytical model, but improvements are proposed to achieve greater accuracy. A computational method for rapid prediction of unfolded protein residual dipolar couplings was also developed. Protein dynamics were shown to modulate the effective molecular alignment in a dilute liquid crystalline medium. The effects were investigated from experimental and molecular dynamics generated conformational ensembles of folded proteins. It was noted that dynamics induced alignment is significant especially for the interpretation of molecular dynamics in small, globular proteins. A method of correction was presented. Residual dipolar couplings offer an attractive possibility for the direct observation of protein conformational preferences and dynamics. The presented models and methods of analysis provide significant advances in the interpretation of residual dipolar coupling data from proteins.

Carbon dynamics in peatlands under changing hydrology : Effects of water level drawdown on litter quality, microbial enzyme activities and litter decomposition rates

Pristine peatlands are carbon (C) accumulating wetland ecosystems sustained by a high water level (WL) and consequent anoxia that slows down decomposition. Persistent WL drawdown as a response to climate and/or land-use change directly affects decomposition: increased oxygenation stimulates decomposition of the old C (peat) sequestered under prior anoxic conditions. Responses of the new C (plant litter) in terms of quality, production and decomposability, and the consequences for the whole C cycle of peatlands are not fully understood. WL drawdown induces changes in plant community resulting in shift in dominance from Sphagnum and graminoids to shrubs and trees. There is increasing evidence that the indirect effects of WL drawdown via the changes in plant communities will have more impact on the ecosystem C cycling than any direct effects. The aim of this study is to disentangle the direct and indirect effects of WL drawdown on the new C by measuring the relative importance of 1) environmental parameters (WL depth, temperature, soil chemistry) and 2) plant community composition on litter production, microbial activity, litter decomposition rates and, consequently, on the C accumulation. This information is crucial for modelling C cycle under changing climate and/or land-use. The effects of WL drawdown were tested in a large-scale experiment with manipulated WL at two time scales and three nutrient regimes. Furthermore, the effect of climate on litter decomposability was tested along a north-south gradient. Additionally, a novel method for estimating litter chemical quality and decomposability was explored by combining Near infrared spectroscopy with multivariate modelling. WL drawdown had direct effects on litter quality, microbial community composition and activity and litter decomposition rates. However, the direct effects of WL drawdown were overruled by the indirect effects via changes in litter type composition and production. Short-term (years) responses to WL drawdown were small. In long-term (decades), dramatically increased litter inputs resulted in large accumulation of organic matter in spite of increased decomposition rates. Further, the quality of the accumulated matter greatly changed from that accumulated in pristine conditions. The response of a peatland ecosystem to persistent WL drawdown was more pronounced at sites with more nutrients. The study demonstrates that the shift in vegetation composition as a response to climate and/or land-use change is the main factor affecting peatland ecosystem C cycle and thus dynamic vegetation is a necessity in any models applied for estimating responses of C fluxes to changes in the environment. The time scale for vegetation changes caused by hydrological changes needs to extend to decades. This study provides grouping of litter types (plant species and part) into functional types based on their chemical quality and/or decomposability that the models could utilize. Further, the results clearly show a drop in soil temperature as a response to WL drawdown when an initially open peatland converts into a forest ecosystem, which has not yet been considered in the existing models.

Part I: Enzyme replacement versus neurotrophic factor viral vector-mediated gene therapy of Parkinson’s disease, Part II: The effects of orally dosed tolcapone and entacapone on dopamine metabolism in the dorsal striatum and nucleus accumbens in rats

Part I: Parkinson’s disease is a slowly progressive neurodegenerative disorder in which particularly the dopaminergic neurons of the substantia nigra pars compacta degenerate and die. Current conventional treatment is based on restraining symptoms but it has no effect on the progression of the disease. Gene therapy research has focused on the possibility of restoring the lost brain function by at least two means: substitution of critical enzymes needed for the synthesis of dopamine and slowing down the progression of the disease by supporting the functions of the remaining nigral dopaminergic neurons by neurotrophic factors. The striatal levels of enzymes such as tyrosine hydroxylase, dopadecarboxylase and GTP-CH1 are decreased as the disease progresses. By replacing one or all of the enzymes, dopamine levels in the striatum may be restored to normal and behavioral impairments caused by the disease may be ameliorated especially in the later stages of the disease. The neurotrophic factors glial cell derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF) and neurturin have shown to protect and restore functions of dopaminergic cell somas and terminals as well as improve behavior in animal lesion models. This therapy may be best suited at the early stages of the disease when there are more dopaminergic neurons for neurotrophic factors to reach. Viral vector-mediated gene transfer provides a tool to deliver proteins with complex structures into specific brain locations and provides long-term protein over-expression. Part II: The aim of our study was to investigate the effects of two orally dosed COMT inhibitors entacapone (10 and 30 mg/kg) and tolcapone (10 and 30 mg/kg) with a subsequent administration of a peripheral dopadecarboxylase inhibitor carbidopa (30 mg/kg) and L- dopa (30 mg/kg) on dopamine and its metabolite levels in the dorsal striatum and nucleus accumbens of freely moving rats using dual-probe in vivo microdialysis. Earlier similarly designed studies have only been conducted in the dorsal striatum. We also confirmed the result of earlier ex vivo studies regarding the effects of intraperitoneally dosed tolcapone (30 mg/kg) and entacapone (30 mg/kg) on striatal and hepatic COMT activity. The results obtained from the dorsal striatum were generally in line with earlier studies, where tolcapone tended to increase dopamine and DOPAC levels and decrease HVA levels. Entacapone tended to keep striatal dopamine and HVA levels elevated longer than in controls and also tended to elevate the levels of DOPAC. Surprisingly in the nucleus accumbens, dopamine levels after either dose of entacapone or tolcapone were not elevated. Accumbal DOPAC levels, especially in the tolcapone 30 mg/kg group, were elevated nearly to the same extent as measured in the dorsal striatum. Entacapone 10 mg/kg elevated accumbal HVA levels more than the dose of 30 mg/kg and the effect was more pronounced in the nucleus accumbens than in the dorsal striatum. This suggests that entacapone 30 mg/kg has minor central effects. Also our ex vivo study results obtained from the dorsal striatum suggest that entacapone 30 mg/kg has minor and transient central effects, even though central HVA levels were not suppressed below those of the control group in either brain area in the microdialysis study. Both entacapone and tolcapone suppressed hepatic COMT activity more than striatal COMT activity. Tolcapone was more effective than entacapone in the dorsal striatum. The differences between dopamine and its metabolite levels in the dorsal striatum and nucleus accumbens may be due to different properties of the two brain areas.

Inference on Cointegration in Vector Autoregressive Models (summary section only)

In the thesis we consider inference for cointegration in vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The thesis consists of an introduction and four papers. The first paper proposes a new test for cointegration in VAR models that is directly based on the eigenvalues of the least squares (LS) estimate of the autoregressive matrix. In the second paper we compare a small sample correction for the likelihood ratio (LR) test of cointegrating rank and the bootstrap. The simulation experiments show that the bootstrap works very well in practice and dominates the correction factor. The tests are applied to international stock prices data, and the .nite sample performance of the tests are investigated by simulating the data. The third paper studies the demand for money in Sweden 1970—2000 using the I(2) model. In the fourth paper we re-examine the evidence of cointegration between international stock prices. The paper shows that some of the previous empirical results can be explained by the small-sample bias and size distortion of Johansen’s LR tests for cointegration. In all papers we work with two data sets. The first data set is a Swedish money demand data set with observations on the money stock, the consumer price index, gross domestic product (GDP), the short-term interest rate and the long-term interest rate. The data are quarterly and the sample period is 1970(1)—2000(1). The second data set consists of month-end stock market index observations for Finland, France, Germany, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States from 1980(1) to 1997(2). Both data sets are typical of the sample sizes encountered in economic data, and the applications illustrate the usefulness of the models and tests discussed in the thesis.

Analysis of forest soil chemistry and hydrology with a dynamic model ACIDIC.

In this study we analyze how the ion concentrations in forest soil solution are determined by hydrological and biogeochemical processes. A dynamic model ACIDIC was developed, including processes common to dynamic soil acidification models. The model treats up to eight interacting layers and simulates soil hydrology, transpiration, root water and nutrient uptake, cation exchange, dissolution and reactions of Al hydroxides in solution, and the formation of carbonic acid and its dissociation products. It includes also a possibility to a simultaneous use of preferential and matrix flow paths, enabling the throughfall water to enter the deeper soil layers in macropores without first reacting with the upper layers. Three different combinations of routing the throughfall water via macro- and micropores through the soil profile is presented. The large vertical gradient in the observed total charge was simulated succesfully. According to the simulations, gradient is mostly caused by differences in the intensity of water uptake, sulfate adsorption and organic anion retention at the various depths. The temporal variations in Ca and Mg concentrations were simulated fairly well in all soil layers. For H+, Al and K there were much more variation in the observed than in the simulated concentrations. Flow in macropores is a possible explanation for the apparent disequilibrium of the cation exchange for H+ and K, as the solution H+ and K concentrations have great vertical gradients in soil. The amount of exchangeable H+ increased in the O and E horizons and decreased in the Bs1 and Bs2 horizons, the net change in whole soil profile being a decrease. A large part of the decrease of the exchangeable H+ in the illuvial B horizon was caused by sulfate adsorption. The model produces soil water amounts and solution ion concentrations which are comparable to the measured values, and it can be used in both hydrological and chemical studies of soils.

Mammalian Mat1 subunit of Transcription Factor IIH in gene-specific and general transcription

All protein-encoding genes in eukaryotes are transcribed into messenger RNA (mRNA) by RNA Polymerase II (RNAP II), whose activity therefore needs to be tightly controlled. An important and only partially understood level of regulation is the multiple phosphorylations of RNAP II large subunit C-terminal domain (CTD). Sequential phosphorylations regulate transcription initiation and elongation, and recruit factors involved in co-transcriptional processing of mRNA. Based largely on studies in yeast models and in vitro, the kinase activity responsible for the phosphorylation of the serine-5 (Ser5) residues of RNAP II CTD has been attributed to the Mat1/Cdk7/CycH trimer as part of Transcription Factor IIH. However, due to the lack of good mammalian genetic models, the roles of both RNAP II Ser5 phosphorylation as well as TFIIH kinase in transcription have provided ambiguous results and the in vivo kinase of Ser5 has remained elusive. The primary objective of this study was to elucidate the role of mammalian TFIIH, and specifically the Mat1 subunit in CTD phosphorylation and general RNAP II-mediated transcription. The approach utilized the Cre-LoxP system to conditionally delete murine Mat1 in cardiomyocytes and hepatocytes in vivo and and in cell culture models. The results identify the TFIIH kinase as the major mammalian Ser5 kinase and demonstrate its requirement for general transcription, noted by the use of nascent mRNA labeling. Also a role for Mat1 in regulating general mRNA turnover was identified, providing a possible rationale for earlier negative findings. A secondary objective was to identify potential gene- and tissue-specific roles of Mat1 and the TFIIH kinase through the use of tissue-specific Mat1 deletion. Mat1 was found to be required for the transcriptional function of PGC-1 in cardiomyocytes. Transriptional activation of lipogenic SREBP1 target genes following Mat1 deletion in hepatocytes revealed a repressive role for Mat1apparently mediated via co-repressor DMAP1 and the DNA methyltransferase Dnmt1. Finally, Mat1 and Cdk7 were also identified as a negative regulators of adipocyte differentiation through the inhibitory phosphorylation of Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR) γ. Together, these results demonstrate gene- and tissue-specific roles for the Mat1 subunit of TFIIH and open up new therapeutic possibilities in the treatment of diseases such as type II diabetes, hepatosteatosis and obesity.