Valuation of reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland : Choice experiment with attention to heterogeneous and discontinuous preferences and respondent uncertainty

Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea is a serious problem. This thesis estimates the benefit to Finns from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland, the most eutrophied part of the Baltic Sea, by applying the choice experiment method, which belongs to the family of stated preference methods. Because stated preference methods have been subject to criticism, e.g., due to their hypothetical survey context, this thesis contributes to the discussion by studying two anomalies that may lead to biased welfare estimates: respondent uncertainty and preference discontinuity. The former refers to the difficulty of stating one s preferences for an environmental good in a hypothetical context. The latter implies a departure from the continuity assumption of conventional consumer theory, which forms the basis for the method and the analysis. In the three essays of the thesis, discrete choice data are analyzed with the multinomial logit and mixed logit models. On average, Finns are willing to contribute to the water quality improvement. The probability for willingness increases with residential or recreational contact with the gulf, higher than average income, younger than average age, and the absence of dependent children in the household. On average, for Finns the relatively most important characteristic of water quality is water clarity followed by the desire for fewer occurrences of blue-green algae. For future nutrient reduction scenarios, the annual mean household willingness to pay estimates range from 271 to 448 and the aggregate welfare estimates for Finns range from 28 billion to 54 billion euros, depending on the model and the intensity of the reduction. Out of the respondents (N=726), 72.1% state in a follow-up question that they are either Certain or Quite certain about their answer when choosing the preferred alternative in the experiment. Based on the analysis of other follow-up questions and another sample (N=307), 10.4% of the respondents are identified as potentially having discontinuous preferences. In relation to both anomalies, the respondent- and questionnaire-specific variables are found among the underlying causes and a departure from standard analysis may improve the model fit and the efficiency of estimates, depending on the chosen modeling approach. The introduction of uncertainty about the future state of the Gulf increases the acceptance of the valuation scenario which may indicate an increased credibility of a proposed scenario. In conclusion, modeling preference heterogeneity is an essential part of the analysis of discrete choice data. The results regarding uncertainty in stating one s preferences and non-standard choice behavior are promising: accounting for these anomalies in the analysis may improve the precision of the estimates of benefit from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland.

The church must become the people of Soweto : Manas Buthelezi’s existential-Christocentric understanding of the church

The aim of this study has been to discern what Manas Buthelezi (1935-), a black South African Lutheran theologian and later also a bishop, regards as the requirements a church has to fulfill in order to be credible in the apartheid society. Buthelezi’s dissertation and several articles written between the years 1968 and 1993 are the sources of this study. Also the lectures held in Heidelberg in 1972 are referred to. Systematic analysis is the method used. The question of the credibility of the church is studied through three concepts that play an important role in Buthelezi’s ecclesiological thought, namely the wholeness of life, incarnation and liberation. The notion of the wholeness of life stems from the African tradition. Buthelezi takes the concept into the Christian church: the church should realize that God is the Creator of all life and Christ the lord of every aspect of human existence. Life is one entity coram Deo. However, the church is not to become the world; solidarity between the two must remain critical as the church is also called to play a prophetic role in the society. The church is in an open relationship with the world. It has a unique message of forgiveness and reconciliation. Nevertheless, the message is not a possession of the church but it is addressed to the whole world. The meaning of incarnation comes close to that of the wholeness of life. Following the example of Christ’s incarnation, the church must become human in the reality of the people. The church in Soweto is to become the people of Soweto, that is, the church must become as vulnerable as the people are. An incarnate church cannot be immune to the oppression that people experience, because the people are the church. The church is therefore bound to suffer. Buthelezi’s theology of the cross is pragmatic: the suffering of the church aims at the liberation of the oppressed. At times the physical presence of the church by the side of the suffering people is the only way to preach the incarnate gospel. In the South Africa of the late 1960s onwards the liberation of the oppressed black people was high on the agenda of Black Theology. As a leader of the early South African Black Theology, Buthelezi is concerned about the racial injustice in his country. He urges the churches to join the struggle against it as one people of God. The notions of liberation and the wholeness of life emerge in Buthelezi’s holistic understanding of liberation that involves the inner liberation of the black spirit and the liberation of the economic, social and political aspects of life. Interpreting Tillich’s correlation method in the South African situation, and also paralleling other liberation theologians, Buthelezi takes the existential situation of the people as the starting point for liberation. The gospel has to respond to the existential questions of people. The church is called to work for the liberation of society but it must also be liberated itself. Buthelezi initiated the LWF statement on the status confessionis in South Africa (1977). In line with the statement, he calls for church unity on the human level. For the unity to be true, it has to be experienced on the grassroots’ level. All the three concepts covered urge the church to come down from any ivory tower and out of any spiritual haven it might hide in. A lot of the credibility of the church derives from the behavior of the people. Buthelezi’s concentration on how the people who constitute the church should live their faith leaves less attention to how God constitutes the church. I have labeled Buthelezi’s understanding of the church existential-Christocentric due to the emphasis he lays on the need of the church to take the existential situation of the people seriously and on the other hand, on Christ as the exemplar for the church.

Improved Search for a Higgs Boson Produced in Association with Z→l+l- in pp̅ Collisions at √s=1.96 TeV

We present a search for the standard model Higgs boson produced with a Z boson in 4.1 fb^-1 of data collected with the CDF II detector at the Tevatron. In events consistent with the decay of the Higgs boson to a bottom-quark pair and the Z boson to electrons or muons, we set 95% credibility level upper limits on the ZH production cross section times the H -> b bbar branching ratio. Improved analysis methods enhance signal sensitivity by 20% relative to previous searches beyond the gain due to the larger data sample. At a Higgs boson mass of 115 GeV/c^2 we set a limit of 5.9 times the standard model value.