Population structure of Pyrenophora teres, the causal agent of net blotch of barley

Spring barley is the most important crop in Finland based on cultivated land area. Net blotch, a disease caused by Pyrenophora teres Drech., is the most damaging disease of barley in Finland. The pressure to improve the economics and efficiency of agriculture has increased the need for more efficient plant protection methods. Development of durable host-plant resistance to net blotch is a promising possibility. However, deployment of disease resistant crops could initiate selection pressure on the pathogen (P. teres) population. The aim of this study was to understand the population biology of P. teres and to estimate the evolutionary potential of P. teres under selective pressure following deployment of resistance genes and application of fungicides. The study included mainly Finnish P. teres isolates. Population samples from Russia and Australia were also included. Using AFLP markers substantial genotypic variation in P. teres populations was identified. Differences among isolates were least within Finnish fields and significantly higher in Krasnodar, Russia. Genetic differentiation was identified among populations from northern Europe and from Australia, and between the two forms P. teres f. teres (PTT, net form of net blotch) and P. teres f. maculata (PTM, spot form of net blotch) in Australia. Differentiation among populations was also identified based on virulence between Finnish and Russian populations, and based on prochloraz (fungicide) tolerance in the Häme region in Finland. Surprisingly only PTT was recovered from Finland and Russia although both forms were earlier equally common in Finland. The reason for the shift in occurrence of forms in Finland remained uncertain. Both forms were found within several fields in Australia. Sexual reproduction of P. teres was supported by recover of both mating types in equal ratio in those areas although the prevalence of sexual mating seems to be less in Finland than in Australia. Population from Krasnodar was an exception since only one mating type was found in there. Based on the substantial high genotypic variation in Krasnodar it was suggested go represent an old P. teres population, whereas the Australian samples were suggested to represent newer populations. In conclusion, P. teres populations are differentiated at several levels. Human assistance in dispersal of P. teres on infected barley seed is obvious and decreases the differentiation among populations. This can increase the plant protection problems caused by this pathogen. P. teres is capable of sexual reproduction in several areas but the prevalence varies. Based on these findings it is apparent that P. teres has the potential to pose more serious problems in barley cultivation if plant protection is neglected. Therefore, good agricultural practices, including crop rotation and the use of healthy seed, are recommended.

Work Stress in the Nursing Profession : An Evaluation of Organizational Causal Attribution

The goal of this study was to examine the role of organizational causal attribution in understanding the relation of work stressors (work-role overload, excessive role responsibility, and unpleasant physical environment) and personal resources (social support and cognitive coping) to such organizational-attitudinal outcomes as work engagement, turnover intention, and organizational identification. In some analyses, cognitive coping was also treated as an organizational outcome. Causal attribution was conceptualized in terms of four dimensions: internality-externality, attributing the cause of one’s successes and failures to oneself, as opposed to external factors, stability (thinking that the cause of one’s successes and failures is stable over time), globality (perceiving the cause to be operative on many areas of one’s life), and controllability (believing that one can control the causes of one’s successes and failures). Several hypotheses were derived from Karasek’s (1989) Job Demands–Control (JD-C) model and from the Job Demands–Resources (JD-R) model (Demerouti, Bakker, Nachreiner & Schaufeli, 2001). Based on the JD-C model, a number of moderation effects were predicted, stating that the strength of the association of work stressors with the outcome variables (e.g. turnover intentions) varies as a function of the causal attribution; for example, unpleasant work environment is more strongly associated with turnover intention among those with an external locus of causality than among those with an internal locuse of causality. From the JD-R model, a number of hypotheses on the mediation model were derived. They were based on two processes posited by the model: an energy-draining process in which work stressors along with a mediating effect of causal attribution for failures deplete the nurses’ energy, leading to turnover intention, and a motivational process in which personal resources along with a mediating effect of causal attribution for successes foster the nurses’ engagement in their work, leading to higher organizational identification and to decreased intention to leave the nursing job. For instance, it was expected that the relationship between work stressors and turnover intention could be explained (mediated) by a tendency to attribute one’s work failures to stable causes. The data were collected from among Finnish hospital nurses using e-questionnaires. Overall 934 nurses responded the questionnaires. Work stressors and personal resources were measured by five scales derived from the Occupational Stress Inventory-Revised (Osipow, 1998). Causal attribution was measured using the Occupational Attributional Style Questionnaire (Furnham, 2004). Work engagement was assessed through the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale (Schaufeli & al., 2002), turnover intention by the Van Veldhoven & Meijman (1994) scale, and organizational identification by the Mael & Ashforth (1992) measure. The results provided support for the function of causal attribution in the overall work stress process. Findings related to the moderation model can be divided into three main findings. First, external locus of causality along with job level moderated the relationship between work overload and cognitive coping. Hence, this interaction was evidenced only among nurses in non-supervisory positions. Second, external locus of causality and job level together moderated the relationship between physical environment and turnover intention. An opposite pattern of interaction was found for this interaction: among nurses, externality exacerbated the effect of perceived unpleasantness of the physical environment on turnover intention, whereas among supervisors internality produced the same effect. Third, job level also disclosed a moderation effect for controllability attribution over the relationship between physical environment and cognitive coping. Findings related to the mediation model for the energetic process indicated that the partial model in which work stressors have also a direct effect on turnover intention fitted the data better. In the mediation model for the motivational process, an intermediate mediation effect in which the effects of personal resources on turnover intention went through two mediators (e.g., causal dimensions and organizational identification) fitted the data better. All dimensions of causal attribution appeared to follow a somewhat unique pattern of mediation effect not only for energetic but also for motivational processes. Overall findings on mediation models partly supported the two simultaneous underlying processes proposed by the JD-R model. While in the energetic process the dimension of externality mediated the relationship between stressors and turnover partially, all the dimensions of causal attribution appeared to entail significant mediator effects in the motivational process. The general findings supported the moderation effect and the mediation effect of causal attribution in the work stress process. The study contributes to several research traditions, including the interaction approach, the JD-C, and the JD-R models. However, many potential functions of organizational causal attribution are yet to be evaluated by relevant academic and organizational research. Keywords: organizational causal attribution, optimistic / pessimistic attributional style, work stressors, organisational stress process, stressors in nursing profession, hospital nursing, JD-R model, personal resources, turnover intention, work engagement, organizational identification.

The Homeless Etiquette : Social Interaction and Behavior Among the Homeless in Taito Ward, Tokyo

The thesis focuses on the social interaction and behavior of the homeless living in Tokyo's Taito Ward. The study is based on the author's own ethnographic field research carried out in the autumn 2003. The chosen methodologies were based on the methodology called "participant observation", and they were used depending on the context. The ethnographic field research was carried out from the mid-August to the beginning of the October in 2003. The most important targets of the research were three separate loosely knit groups placed in certain parts of Taito Ward. One of these groups was based in proximity to the Ueno train station, one group gathered every morning around a homeless support organization called San'yûkai, and one was based in Tamahime Park located in the old San'ya area of Tokyo. The analysis is based on the aspects of Takie Sugiyama Lebra's theory of "social relativism". Lebra's theory consists of the following, arguably universal aspects: belongingness, empathy, dependence, place in the society, and reciprocity. In addition, all the interaction and behavior is tied to the context and the situation. According to Lebra, ritual and intimate situations produce similar action, which is socially relative. Of these, the norms of the ritual behavior are more regulated, while the intimate bahavior is less spontaneous. On the contrary, an anomic situation produces anomic behavior, which is not socially relative. Lebra's theory is critically reviewed by the author of the thesis, and the author has attempted to modify the theory to make it more adaptable to the present-day society and to the analysis. Erving Goffman's views of the social interaction and Anthony Giddens' theories about the social structures have been used as complementary thoretical basis. The aim of the thesis is to clarify, how and why the interaction and the behavior of some homeless individuals in some situations follow the aspects of Lebra's "social relativism", and on the other hand, why in some situations they do not. In the latter cases the answers can be sought from regional and individual differences, or from the inaptness of the theory to analyze the presented situation. Here, a significant factor is the major finding of the field study: the so called "homeless etiquette", which is an abstract set of norms and values that influences the social interaction and behavior of the homeless, and with which many homeless individuals presented in the study complied. The fundamental goal of the thesis is to reach profound understanding about the daily life of the homeless, whose lives were studied. The author argues that this kind of profound understanding is necessary in looking for sustainable solutions in the areas of social and housing policy to improve the position of the homeless and the qualitative functioning of the society.

Non-reductive Physicalism, Irreducibility of the Mental and the Problem of Mental Causation : A study of Donald Davidson's and Georg Henrik von Wright's positions in the philosophy of mind

In this study I consider what kind of perspective on the mind body problem is taken and can be taken by a philosophical position called non-reductive physicalism. Many positions fall under this label. The form of non-reductive physicalism which I discuss is in essential respects the position taken by Donald Davidson (1917-2003) and Georg Henrik von Wright (1916-2003). I defend their positions and discuss the unrecognized similarities between their views. Non-reductive physicalism combines two theses: (a) Everything that exists is physical; (b) Mental phenomena cannot be reduced to the states of the brain. This means that according to non-reductive physicalism the mental aspect of humans (be it a soul, mind, or spirit) is an irreducible part of the human condition. Also Davidson and von Wright claim that, in some important sense, the mental aspect of a human being does not reduce to the physical aspect, that there is a gap between these aspects that cannot be closed. I claim that their arguments for this conclusion are convincing. I also argue that whereas von Wright and Davidson give interesting arguments for the irreducibility of the mental, their physicalism is unwarranted. These philosophers do not give good reasons for believing that reality is thoroughly physical. Notwithstanding the materialistic consensus in the contemporary philosophy of mind the ontology of mind is still an uncharted territory where real breakthroughs are not to be expected until a radically new ontological position is developed. The third main claim of this work is that the problem of mental causation cannot be solved from the Davidsonian - von Wrightian perspective. The problem of mental causation is the problem of how mental phenomena like beliefs can cause physical movements of the body. As I see it, the essential point of non-reductive physicalism - the irreducibility of the mental - and the problem of mental causation are closely related. If mental phenomena do not reduce to causally effective states of the brain, then what justifies the belief that mental phenomena have causal powers? If mental causes do not reduce to physical causes, then how to tell when - or whether - the mental causes in terms of which human actions are explained are actually effective? I argue that this - how to decide when mental causes really are effective - is the real problem of mental causation. The motivation to explore and defend a non-reductive position stems from the belief that reductive physicalism leads to serious ethical problems. My claim is that Davidson's and von Wright's ultimate reason to defend a non-reductive view comes back to their belief that a reductive understanding of human nature would be a narrow and possibly harmful perspective. The final conclusion of my thesis is that von Wright's and Davidson's positions provide a starting point from which the current scientistic philosophy of mind can be critically further explored in the future.

Herätys kylässä ja tuvissa : Rääkkylän Oravisalon kylä ja renqvistiläinen herätys 1820-luvulla

A Revival in a Village and its Households. The Village of Oravisalo in Rääkkylä Parish and the Renqvistist Revivalism in the 1820s. My purpose is to apply the science of religion and the study of past communities to the study of religious revivalism. Revivalism will be considered a religious phenomenon as well as a cultural and social phenomenon. What makes this study unique is the possibility to reconstruct a list of participating revivalists based on entries in the communion book of the time. The conflict between the revivalists and the chaplain of Rääkkylä also generated other documentary material. The community in Oravisalo was relatively stratified. People lived in complex and varying forms of households. They also had plentiful contacts both with unrelated inhabitants of Oravisalo and with the neighbouring villages. Through these contacts the inhabitants of Oravisalo were introduced to revivalism. In Oravisalo, the revival for the most part fell into a certain social stratum and did not severely damage existing relationships within families or among acquaintances. The revivalists formed a new community within the village but the community was neither very tightly-knit nor was it closed. The revival was an individual phenomenon affected by general factors. First, there were factors that brought about a quest for an applicable system of meanings. These factors included at least three important issues: the Great Partition of land, the crisis of slash-and-burn cultivation, and a population growth that increased the proportion of the landless in the village. As a result, many of the revivalists had low status and poor expectations for the future. Second, there were factors that appealed to the people in the message and character of the preacher, Henrik Renqvist. Third, the proximity of the village to Liperi, where the revival got its start, was crucial to revivalism s spread to Oravisalo. Culturally, the revival meant a change in the system of symbols or meanings, so it was not solely a matter of intensified religious fervour. For instance, Communion, prayer, reading, and perhaps baptism symbolised different things to the revivalists than to other villagers. However, the revivalists do not seem to have started any moral revolution in their village. The religious aspect defined the limits of the protest and the resistance towards authorities. The revivalists wanted only to have the right to follow their conscience. The freedom granted the female members was limited to the religious sphere. No social or economic claims were made. The revival altered the situation of its members only on a symbolic level, yet it also offered them status within their own group.

The Walls of Agios Donatos Zervochoriou : A case study of a fortress in Thesprotia, northwestern Greece

The study deals with the dating and the function of the fortress of Agios Donatos, which is located in the Kokytos river valley in Thesprotia, northwestern Greece. To solve the dating problem one had to use parallels found in research literature, preferably within as close range as possible. As most of the fortresses within a close proximity had not been adequately published, one had to use parallels within a larger area, throughout the Hellenistic world. Archaeological material found in trial trenches on site was used when possible. To think of the function of the site one had to study the site itself and its relation to the environment, and to compare the situation with the parallels found in research literature, mostly different archaeological survey projects in Greece and Asia Minor. The fortress was built during a period ranging from the final decades of the fourth century down to the mid-third century BC. Most likely it was built during the first quarter of the third century, that is the reign of Pyrrhus of Epirus when the area experienced a boom in fortress building activity. The function of the site was most likely to protect a trade route from the major port in the area to the central areas of the valley and on to Kalamas river, which was the major route on to Macedon. In the end an appendix dealing with the other fortified sites in Thesprotia has been compiled.

Xanthine oxidoreductase in essential hypertension and metabolic syndrome : Experimental studies on rodent models

Hypertension, obesity, dyslipidemia and dysglycemia constitute metabolic syndrome, a major public health concern, which is associated with cardiovascular mortality. High dietary salt (NaCl) is the most important dietary risk factor for elevated blood pressure. The kidney has a major role in salt-sensitive hypertension and is vulnerable to harmful effects of increased blood pressure. Elevated serum urate is a common finding in these disorders. While dysregulation of urate excretion is associated with cardiovascular diseases, present studies aimed to clarify the role of xanthine oxidoreductase (XOR), i.e. xanthine dehydrogenase (XDH) and its post-translational isoform xanthine oxidase (XO), in cardiovascular diseases. XOR yields urate from hypoxanthine and xanthine. Low oxygen levels upregulate XOR in addition to other factors. In present studies higher renal XOR activity was found in hypertension-prone rats than in the controls. Furthermore, NaCl intake increased renal XOR dose-dependently. To clarify whether XOR has any causal role in hypertension, rats were kept on NaCl diets for different periods of time, with or without a XOR inhibitor, allopurinol. While allopurinol did not alleviate hypertension, it prevented left ventricular and renal hypertrophy. Nitric oxide synthases (NOS) produce nitric oxide (NO), which mediates vasodilatation. A paucity of NO, produced by NOS inhibition, aggravated hypertension and induced renal XOR, whereas NO generating drug, alleviated salt-induced hypertension without changes in renal XOR. Zucker fa/fa rat is an animal model of metabolic syndrome. These rats developed substantial obesity and modest hypertension and showed increased hepatic and renal XOR activities. XOR was modified by diet and antihypertensive treatment. Cyclosporine (CsA) is a fungal peptide and one of the first-line immunosuppressive drugs used in the management of organ transplantation. Nephrotoxicity ensue high doses resulting in hypertension and limit CsA use. CsA increased renal XO substantially in salt-sensitive rats on a high NaCl diet, indicating a possible role for this reactive oxygen species generating isoform in CsA nephrotoxicity. Renal hypoxia, common to these rodent models of hypertension and obesity, is one of the plausible XOR inducing factors. Although XOR inhibition did not prevent hypertension, present experimental data indicate that XOR plays a role in the pathology of salt-induced cardiac and renal hypertrophy.

Insights into the molecular genetics of celiac disease : Applying family- and population-based strategies

Celiac disease, or gluten intolerance, is triggered by dietary glutens in genetically susceptible individuals and it affects approximately 1% of the Caucasian population. The best known genetic risk factors for celiac disease are HLA DQ2 and DQ8 heterodimers, which are necessary for the development of the disease. However, they alone are not sufficient for disease induction, other risk factors are required. This thesis investigated genetic factors for celiac disease, concentrating on susceptibility loci on chromosomes 5q31-q33, 19p13 and 2q12 previously reported in genome-wide linkage and association studies. In addition, a novel genotyping method for the detection of HLA DQ2 and DQ8 coding haplotypes was validated. This study was conducted using Finnish and Hungarian family materials, and Finnish, Hungarian and Italian case-control materials. Genetic linkage and association were analysed in these materials using candidate gene and fine-mapping approaches. The results confirmed linkage to celiac disease on the chromosomal regions 5q31-q33 and 19p13. Fine-mapping on chromosome 5q31-q33 revealed several modest associations in the region, and highlighted the need for further investigations to locate the causal risk variants. The MYO9B gene on chromosome 19p13 showed evidence for linkage and association particularly with dermatitis herpetiformis, the skin manifestation of celiac disease. This implies a potential difference in the genetic background of the intestinal and skin forms of the disease, although studies on larger samplesets are required. The IL18RAP locus on chromosome 2q12, shown to be associated with celiac disease in a previous genome-wide association study and a subsequent follow-up, showed association in the Hungarian population in this study. The expression of IL18RAP was further investigated in small intestinal tissue and in peripheral blood mononuclear cells. The results showed that IL18RAP is expressed in the relevant tissues. Two putative isoforms of IL18RAP were detected by Western blot analysis, and the results suggested that the ratios and total levels of these isoforms may contribute to the aetiology of celiac disease. A novel genotyping method for celiac disease-associated HLA haplotypes was also validated in this thesis. The method utilises single-nucleotide polymorphisms tagging these HLA haplotypes with high sensitivity and specificity. Our results suggest that this method is transferable between populations, and it is suitable for large-scale analysis. In conclusion, this doctorate study provides an insight into the roles of the 5q31-q33, MYO9B, IL18RAP and HLA loci in the susceptibility to celiac disease in the Finnish, Hungarian and Italian populations, highlighting the need for further studies at these genetic loci and examination of the function of the candidate genes.

Genetic alterations in microsatellite-unstable colorectal cancer

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer in Finland. Of all CRC tumors, 15% display microsatellite-instability (MSI) caused by defective cellular mismatch repair. Cells displaying MSI accumulate a high number of mutations genome-wide, especially in short repeat areas, microsatellites. When targeting genes essential for cell growth or death, MSI can promote tumorigenesis. In non-coding areas, microsatellite mutations are generally considered as passenger events. Since the discovery of MSI and its linkage to cancer, more that 200 genes have been investigated for a role in MSI tumorigenesis. Although various criteria have been suggested for MSI target gene identification, the challenge has been to distinguish driver mutations from passenger mutations. This study aimed to clarify these key issues in the research field of MSI cancer. Prior to this, background mutation rate in MSI cancer has not been studied in a large-scale. We investigated the background mutation rate in MSI CRC by analyzing the spectrum of microsatellite mutations in non-coding areas. First, semenogelin I was studied for a possible role in MSI carcinogenesis. The intronic T9 repeat of semenogelin I was frequently mutated but no evidence for selection during tumorigenesis was obtained. Second, a sequencing approach was utilized to evaluate the general background mutation rate in MSI CRC. Both intronic and intergenic repeats harbored extremely high mutation rates of ≤ 87% and intergenic repeats were more unstable than the intronic repeats. As mutation rates of presumably neutral microsatellites can be high in MSI CRC in the absence of apparent selection pressure, high mutation frequency alone is not sufficient evidence for identification of driver MSI target genes. Next, an unbiased approach was designed to identify the mutatome of MSI CRC. By combining expression array data and a database search we identified novel genes possibly related to MSI CRC carcinogenesis. One of the genes was studied further. In the functional analysis this gene was observed to cause an abnormal cancer-prone cellular phenotype, possibly through altered responses to DNA damage. In our recent study, smooth muscle myosin heavy chain 11 (MYH11) was identified as a novel MSI CRC gene. Additionally, MYH11 has a well established role in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) through an oncogenic fusion protein CBFB-MYH11. We investigated further the role of MYH11 in AML by sequencing. Three novel missense variants of MYH11 were identified. None of the variants were present in the population-based control material. One of the identified variants, V71A, lies in the N-terminal SH3-like domain of MYH11 of unknown function. The other two variants, K1059E and R1792Q are located in the coil-coiled myosin rod essential for the regulation and filament formation of MYH11. The variant K1059E lies in the close proximity of the K1044N that has been functionally assessed in our earlier work of CRC and has been reported to cause total loss of MYH11 protein regulation. As the functional significance of the three novel variants examined in this work remains unknown, future studies should clarify the further role of MYH11 in AML leukaemogenesis and in other malignancies.

Spatial and temporal variability in midge (Nematocera) assemblages in shallow Finnish lakes (60−70 °N) : community-based modelling of past environmental change

Multi- and intralake datasets of fossil midge assemblages in surface sediments of small shallow lakes in Finland were studied to determine the most important environmental factors explaining trends in midge distribution and abundance. The aim was to develop palaeoenvironmental calibration models for the most important environmental variables for the purpose of reconstructing past environmental conditions. The developed models were applied to three high-resolution fossil midge stratigraphies from southern and eastern Finland to interpret environmental variability over the past 2000 years, with special focus on the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and recent anthropogenic changes. The midge-based results were compared with physical properties of the sediment, historical evidence and environmental reconstructions based on diatoms (Bacillariophyta), cladocerans (Crustacea: Cladocera) and tree rings. The results showed that the most important environmental factor controlling midge distribution and abundance along a latitudinal gradient in Finland was the mean July air temperature (TJul). However, when the dataset was environmentally screened to include only pristine lakes, water depth at the sampling site became more important. Furthermore, when the dataset was geographically scaled to southern Finland, hypolimnetic oxygen conditions became the dominant environmental factor. The results from an intralake dataset from eastern Finland showed that the most important environmental factors controlling midge distribution within a lake basin were river contribution, water depth and submerged vegetation patterns. In addition, the results of the intralake dataset showed that the fossil midge assemblages represent fauna that lived in close proximity to the sampling sites, thus enabling the exploration of within-lake gradients in midge assemblages. Importantly, this within-lake heterogeneity in midge assemblages may have effects on midge-based temperature estimations, because samples taken from the deepest point of a lake basin may infer considerably colder temperatures than expected, as shown by the present test results. Therefore, it is suggested here that the samples in fossil midge studies involving shallow boreal lakes should be taken from the sublittoral, where the assemblages are most representative of the whole lake fauna. Transfer functions between midge assemblages and the environmental forcing factors that were significantly related with the assemblages, including mean air TJul, water depth, hypolimnetic oxygen, stream flow and distance to littoral vegetation, were developed using weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS) techniques, which outperformed all the other tested numerical approaches. Application of the models in downcore studies showed mostly consistent trends. Based on the present results, which agreed with previous studies and historical evidence, the Medieval Climate Anomaly between ca. 800 and 1300 AD in eastern Finland was characterized by warm temperature conditions and dry summers, but probably humid winters. The Little Ice Age (LIA) prevailed in southern Finland from ca. 1550 to 1850 AD, with the coldest conditions occurring at ca. 1700 AD, whereas in eastern Finland the cold conditions prevailed over a longer time period, from ca. 1300 until 1900 AD. The recent climatic warming was clearly represented in all of the temperature reconstructions. In the terms of long-term climatology, the present results provide support for the concept that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index has a positive correlation with winter precipitation and annual temperature and a negative correlation with summer precipitation in eastern Finland. In general, the results indicate a relatively warm climate with dry summers but snowy winters during the MCA and a cool climate with rainy summers and dry winters during the LIA. The results of the present reconstructions and the forthcoming applications of the models can be used in assessments of long-term environmental dynamics to refine the understanding of past environmental reference conditions and natural variability required by environmental scientists, ecologists and policy makers to make decisions concerning the presently occurring global, regional and local changes. The developed midge-based models for temperature, hypolimnetic oxygen, water depth, littoral vegetation shift and stream flow, presented in this thesis, are open for scientific use on request.

Environmental factors affecting the occurrence of periglacial landforms in Finnish Lapland: a numerical approach

Determination of the environmental factors controlling earth surface processes and landform patterns is one of the central themes in physical geography. However, the identification of the main drivers of the geomorphological phenomena is often challenging. Novel spatial analysis and modelling methods could provide new insights into the process-environment relationships. The objective of this research was to map and quantitatively analyse the occurrence of cryogenic phenomena in subarctic Finland. More precisely, utilising a grid-based approach the distribution and abundance of periglacial landforms were modelled to identify important landscape scale environmental factors. The study was performed using a comprehensive empirical data set of periglacial landforms from an area of 600 km2 at a 25-ha resolution. The utilised statistical methods were generalized linear modelling (GLM) and hierarchical partitioning (HP). GLMs were used to produce distribution and abundance models and HP to reveal independently the most likely causal variables. The GLM models were assessed utilising statistical evaluation measures, prediction maps, field observations and the results of HP analyses. A total of 40 different landform types and subtypes were identified. Topographical, soil property and vegetation variables were the primary correlates for the occurrence and cover of active periglacial landforms on the landscape scale. In the model evaluation, most of the GLMs were shown to be robust although the explanation power, prediction ability as well as the selected explanatory variables varied between the models. The great potential of the combination of a spatial grid system, terrain data and novel statistical techniques to map the occurrence of periglacial landforms was demonstrated in this study. GLM proved to be a useful modelling framework for testing the shapes of the response functions and significances of the environmental variables and the HP method helped to make better deductions of the important factors of earth surface processes. Hence, the numerical approach presented in this study can be a useful addition to the current range of techniques available to researchers to map and monitor different geographical phenomena.

On probability-based inference under data missing by design

Whether a statistician wants to complement a probability model for observed data with a prior distribution and carry out fully probabilistic inference, or base the inference only on the likelihood function, may be a fundamental question in theory, but in practice it may well be of less importance if the likelihood contains much more information than the prior. Maximum likelihood inference can be justified as a Gaussian approximation at the posterior mode, using flat priors. However, in situations where parametric assumptions in standard statistical models would be too rigid, more flexible model formulation, combined with fully probabilistic inference, can be achieved using hierarchical Bayesian parametrization. This work includes five articles, all of which apply probability modeling under various problems involving incomplete observation. Three of the papers apply maximum likelihood estimation and two of them hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Because maximum likelihood may be presented as a special case of Bayesian inference, but not the other way round, in the introductory part of this work we present a framework for probability-based inference using only Bayesian concepts. We also re-derive some results presented in the original articles using the toolbox equipped herein, to show that they are also justifiable under this more general framework. Here the assumption of exchangeability and de Finetti's representation theorem are applied repeatedly for justifying the use of standard parametric probability models with conditionally independent likelihood contributions. It is argued that this same reasoning can be applied also under sampling from a finite population. The main emphasis here is in probability-based inference under incomplete observation due to study design. This is illustrated using a generic two-phase cohort sampling design as an example. The alternative approaches presented for analysis of such a design are full likelihood, which utilizes all observed information, and conditional likelihood, which is restricted to a completely observed set, conditioning on the rule that generated that set. Conditional likelihood inference is also applied for a joint analysis of prevalence and incidence data, a situation subject to both left censoring and left truncation. Other topics covered are model uncertainty and causal inference using posterior predictive distributions. We formulate a non-parametric monotonic regression model for one or more covariates and a Bayesian estimation procedure, and apply the model in the context of optimal sequential treatment regimes, demonstrating that inference based on posterior predictive distributions is feasible also in this case.