The Impact of Emissions Trading on the Price of Electricity in Nord Pool : Market Power and Price Determination in the Nordic Electricity Market

The objective of this thesis is to find out how dominant firms in a liberalised electricity market will react when they face an increase in the level of costs due to emissions trading, and how this will effect the price of electricity. The Nordic electricity market is chosen as the setting in which to examine the question, since recent studies on the subject suggest that interaction between electricity markets and emissions trading is very much dependent on conditions specific to each market area. There is reason to believe that imperfect competition prevails in the Nordic market, thus the issue is approached through the theory of oligopolistic competition. The generation capacity available at the market, marginal cost of electricity production and seasonal levels of demand form the data based on which the dominant firms are modelled using the Cournot model of competition. The calculations are made for two levels of demand, high and low, and with several values of demand elasticity. The producers are first modelled under no carbon costs and then by adding the cost of carbon dioxide at 20€/t to those technologies subject to carbon regulation. In all cases the situation under perfect competition is determined as a comparison point for the results of the Cournot game. The results imply that the potential for market power does exist on the Nordic market, but the possibility for exercising market power depends on the demand level. In season of high demand the dominant firms may raise the price significantly above competitive levels, and the situation is aggravated when the cost of carbon dioixide is accounted for. Under low demand leves there is no difference between perfect and imperfect competition. The results are highly dependent on the price elasticity of demand.

The expiration day effect of indexoptions and index futures on the underlying shares

This paper studies the effect of the expiration day of index options and futures on the trading volume, variance and price of the underlying shares. The data consists of all trades for the underlying shares in the FOX-index for expiration days during the period October 1995 to the mid of yer 1999. The main results seem to support the findings of Kan 2001, i.e. no manipulation on a larger scale. However, some indication of manipulation could be found if certain characteristics are favorable. These characteristics include: a) a large quantity of outstanding futures or at/in the money options contracts, b) there exists shares with high index weight but fairly low trading volume. Lastly, there is some indication that manipulation might be more popular towards the end of the examined time period.

Dynamic Factor Models and Forecasting Finnish Macroeconomic Variables

In recent years, thanks to developments in information technology, large-dimensional datasets have been increasingly available. Researchers now have access to thousands of economic series and the information contained in them can be used to create accurate forecasts and to test economic theories. To exploit this large amount of information, researchers and policymakers need an appropriate econometric model.Usual time series models, vector autoregression for example, cannot incorporate more than a few variables. There are two ways to solve this problem: use variable selection procedures or gather the information contained in the series to create an index model. This thesis focuses on one of the most widespread index model, the dynamic factor model (the theory behind this model, based on previous literature, is the core of the first part of this study), and its use in forecasting Finnish macroeconomic indicators (which is the focus of the second part of the thesis). In particular, I forecast economic activity indicators (e.g. GDP) and price indicators (e.g. consumer price index), from 3 large Finnish datasets. The first dataset contains a large series of aggregated data obtained from the Statistics Finland database. The second dataset is composed by economic indicators from Bank of Finland. The last dataset is formed by disaggregated data from Statistic Finland, which I call micro dataset. The forecasts are computed following a two steps procedure: in the first step I estimate a set of common factors from the original dataset. The second step consists in formulating forecasting equations including the factors extracted previously. The predictions are evaluated using relative mean squared forecast error, where the benchmark model is a univariate autoregressive model. The results are dataset-dependent. The forecasts based on factor models are very accurate for the first dataset (the Statistics Finland one), while they are considerably worse for the Bank of Finland dataset. The forecasts derived from the micro dataset are still good, but less accurate than the ones obtained in the first case. This work leads to multiple research developments. The results here obtained can be replicated for longer datasets. The non-aggregated data can be represented in an even more disaggregated form (firm level). Finally, the use of the micro data, one of the major contributions of this thesis, can be useful in the imputation of missing values and the creation of flash estimates of macroeconomic indicator (nowcasting).

The structure of Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) stems in relation to wood properties of sawn timber

An important challenge in forest industry is to get the appropriate raw material out from the forests to the wood processing industry. Growth and stem reconstruction simulators are therefore increasingly integrated in industrial conversion simulators, for linking the properties of wooden products to the three-dimensional structure of stems and their growing conditions. Static simulators predict the wood properties from stem dimensions at the end of a growth simulation period, whereas in dynamic approaches, the structural components, e.g. branches, are incremented along with the growth processes. The dynamic approach can be applied to stem reconstruction by predicting the three-dimensional stem structure from external tree variables (i.e. age, height) as a result of growth to the current state. In this study, a dynamic growth simulator, PipeQual, and a stem reconstruction simulator, RetroSTEM, are adapted to Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) to predict the three-dimensional structure of stems (tapers, branchiness, wood basic density) over time such that both simulators can be integrated in a sawing simulator. The parameterisation of the PipeQual and RetroSTEM simulators for Norway spruce relied on the theoretically based description of tree structure developing in the growth process and following certain conservative structural regularities while allowing for plasticity in the crown development. The crown expressed both regularity and plasticity in its development, as the vertical foliage density peaked regularly at about 5 m from the stem apex, varying below that with tree age and dominance position (Study I). Conservative stem structure was characterized in terms of (1) the pipe ratios between foliage mass and branch and stem cross-sectional areas at crown base, (2) the allometric relationship between foliage mass and crown length, (3) mean branch length relative to crown length and (4) form coefficients in branches and stem (Study II). The pipe ratio between branch and stem cross-sectional area at crown base, and mean branch length relative to the crown length may differ in trees before and after canopy closure, but the variation should be further analysed in stands of different ages and densities with varying site fertilities and climates. The predictions of the PipeQual and RetroSTEM simulators were evaluated by comparing the simulated values to measured ones (Study III, IV). Both simulators predicted stem taper and branch diameter at the individual tree level with a small bias. RetroSTEM predictions of wood density were accurate. For focusing on even more accurate predictions of stem diameters and branchiness along the stem, both simulators should be further improved by revising the following aspects in the simulators: the relationship between foliage and stem sapwood area in the upper stem, the error source in branch sizes, the crown base development and the height growth models in RetroSTEM. In Study V, the RetroSTEM simulator was integrated in the InnoSIM sawing simulator, and according to the pilot simulations, this turned out to be an efficient tool for readily producing stand scale information about stem sizes and structure when approximating the available assortments of wood products.

A Cointegration Approach to Topics in Empirical Macroeconomics (summary section only)

Mikael Juselius’ doctoral dissertation covers a range of significant issues in modern macroeconomics by empirically testing a number of important theoretical hypotheses. The first essay presents indirect evidence within the framework of the cointegrated VAR model on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor by using Finnish manufacturing data. Instead of estimating the elasticity of substitution by using the first order conditions, he develops a new approach that utilizes a CES production function in a model with a 3-stage decision process: investment in the long run, wage bargaining in the medium run and price and employment decisions in the short run. He estimates the elasticity of substitution to be below one. The second essay tests the restrictions implied by the core equations of the New Keynesian Model (NKM) in a vector autoregressive model (VAR) by using both Euro area and U.S. data. Both the new Keynesian Phillips curve and the aggregate demand curve are estimated and tested. The restrictions implied by the core equations of the NKM are rejected on both U.S. and Euro area data. These results are important for further research. The third essay is methodologically similar to essay 2, but it concentrates on Finnish macro data by adopting a theoretical framework of an open economy. Juselius’ results suggests that the open economy NKM framework is too stylized to provide an adequate explanation for Finnish inflation. The final essay provides a macroeconometric model of Finnish inflation and associated explanatory variables and it estimates the relative importance of different inflation theories. His main finding is that Finnish inflation is primarily determined by excess demand in the product market and by changes in the long-term interest rate. This study is part of the research agenda carried out by the Research Unit of Economic Structure and Growth (RUESG). The aim of RUESG it to conduct theoretical and empirical research with respect to important issues in industrial economics, real option theory, game theory, organization theory, theory of financial systems as well as to study problems in labor markets, macroeconomics, natural resources, taxation and time series econometrics. RUESG was established at the beginning of 1995 and is one of the National Centers of Excellence in research selected by the Academy of Finland. It is financed jointly by the Academy of Finland, the University of Helsinki, the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation, Bank of Finland and the Nokia Group. This support is gratefully acknowledged.

Porsastuotannon tuottavuuskehitys sikatilinpäätöstiloilla vuosina 2003–2008

Tutkimuksessa mitataan porsastuotannon tuottavuuden kehitystä ProAgrian sikatilinpäätöstiloilla vuosina 2003–2008. Tuottavuutta mitataan Fisher-tuottavuusindeksillä, joka dekomponoidaan tekniseen, allokatiiviseen ja skaalatehokkuuteen sekä teknologiseen kehitykseen ja hintavaikutukseen. Koko aineistosta aggregoidulla tuottavuusindeksillä mitattuna tuottavuus kasvoi viidessä vuodessa yhteensä 14,3 % vuotuisen kasvun ollessa 2,7 %. Tuottajien keskimääräinen tuottavuusindeksi antaa lähes saman tuloksen: sen mukaan tuottavuus kasvaa yhteensä 14,7 %, mikä tekee 2,8 % vuodessa. Skaalatehokkuuden paraneminen havaitaan merkittävimmäksi tuottavuuskasvun lähteeksi. Skaalatehokkuus paranee aggregoidusti mitattuna 1,6 % vuodessa ja tiloilla keskimäärin 2,1 % vuodessa. Teknisen tehokkuuden koheneminen on toinen tuottavuuskasvua edistävä tekijä tutkimusjaksolla. Molemmilla mittaustavoilla nousu on keskimäärin 1,4 % vuodessa. Allokatiivinen tehokkuus laskee hieman: aggregoidusti mitattuna 0,1 % ja keskimäärin 0,4 % vuodessa. Teknologinen kehitys tutkimusjaksolla on lievästi negatiivista, keskimäärin -0,1 % vuodessa. Vuosittaiset vaihtelut ovat kuitenkin voimakkaita. Hintojen muutokset eivät juuri ole vaikuttaneet tuottavuuden tasoon, sillä hintavaikutuksen vuotuiset muutokset jäävät jokaisena vuonna alle puoleen prosenttiin ja keskimääräinen vuotuinen muutos on -0,1 %. Keskeinen tuottavuuskasvua edistänyt tekijä näyttää olleen tilakoon kasvu, joka on parantanut rakenteellista tehokkuutta. Teknologisen kehityksen jääminen negatiiviseksi kuitenkin tarkoittaa, että paras havaittu tuottavuuden taso ei ole noussut lainkaan.

Essays on Market Microstructure: Price Discovery and Informed Trading

Market microstructure is “the study of the trading mechanisms used for financial securities” (Hasbrouck (2007)). It seeks to understand the sources of value and reasons for trade, in a setting with different types of traders, and different private and public information sets. The actual mechanisms of trade are a continually changing object of study. These include continuous markets, auctions, limit order books, dealer markets, or combinations of these operating as a hybrid market. Microstructure also has to allow for the possibility of multiple prices. At any given time an investor may be faced with a multitude of different prices, depending on whether he or she is buying or selling, the quantity he or she wishes to trade, and the required speed for the trade. The price may also depend on the relationship that the trader has with potential counterparties. In this research, I touch upon all of the above issues. I do this by studying three specific areas, all of which have both practical and policy implications. First, I study the role of information in trading and pricing securities in markets with a heterogeneous population of traders, some of whom are informed and some not, and who trade for different private or public reasons. Second, I study the price discovery of stocks in a setting where they are simultaneously traded in more than one market. Third, I make a contribution to the ongoing discussion about market design, i.e. the question of which trading systems and ways of organizing trading are most efficient. A common characteristic throughout my thesis is the use of high frequency datasets, i.e. tick data. These datasets include all trades and quotes in a given security, rather than just the daily closing prices, as in traditional asset pricing literature. This thesis consists of four separate essays. In the first essay I study price discovery for European companies cross-listed in the United States. I also study explanatory variables for differences in price discovery. In my second essay I contribute to earlier research on two issues of broad interest in market microstructure: market transparency and informed trading. I examine the effects of a change to an anonymous market at the OMX Helsinki Stock Exchange. I broaden my focus slightly in the third essay, to include releases of macroeconomic data in the United States. I analyze the effect of these releases on European cross-listed stocks. The fourth and last essay examines the uses of standard methodologies of price discovery analysis in a novel way. Specifically, I study price discovery within one market, between local and foreign traders.

Short-term Price Behavior and the Effect of Foreign Investors in Finnish Equity Markets (summary section only)

As globalization and capital free movement has increased, so has interest in the effects of that global money flow, especially during financial crises. The concern has been that large global money flows will affect the pricing of small local markets by causing, in particular, overreaction. The purpose of this thesis is to contribute to the body of work concerning short-term under- and overreaction and the short-term effects of foreign investment flow in the small Finnish equity markets. This thesis also compares foreign execution return to domestic execution return. This study’s results indicate that short-term under- and overreaction occurs in domestic-buy portfolios (domestic net buying) rather than in foreign-buy portfolios. This under- and overreaction, however, is not economically meaningful after controlling for the bid-ask bounce effect. Based on this finding, one can conclude that foreign investors do not have a destabilizing effect in the short-term in the Finnish markets. Foreign activity affects short-term returns. When foreign investors are net buyers (sellers) there are positive (negative) market adjusted returns. Literature related to nationality and institutional effect leads us to expect these kind of results. These foreign flows are persistent at a 5 % to 21 % level and the persistence of foreign buy flow is higher than the foreign sell flow. Foreign daily trading execution is worse than domestic execution. Literature which quantifies foreign investors as liquidity demanders and literature related to front-running leads us to expect poorer foreign execution than domestic execution.

Price Inflation, Unemployment and Devaluations: The Finnish Experience of the 1990s

In this paper I provide some empirical answers to important questions such as the determinants of price inflation and the role of inflation polices. The results indicate that monetary policy is surprisingly impotent as a device for controlling inflation and there is little support that it influences the real variables. The low inflation after the Finnish devaluations in the beginning of 90s is foremost due to a previous imbalance in the labor markets and depressed aggregate demand.

Monetary Policy, Stock Price Misalignments and Macroeconomic Instability

Perhaps the most fundamental prediction of financial theory is that the expected returns on financial assets are determined by the amount of risk contained in their payoffs. Assets with a riskier payoff pattern should provide higher expected returns than assets that are otherwise similar but provide payoffs that contain less risk. Financial theory also predicts that not all types of risks should be compensated with higher expected returns. It is well-known that the asset-specific risk can be diversified away, whereas the systematic component of risk that affects all assets remains even in large portfolios. Thus, the asset-specific risk that the investor can easily get rid of by diversification should not lead to higher expected returns, and only the shared movement of individual asset returns – the sensitivity of these assets to a set of systematic risk factors – should matter for asset pricing. It is within this framework that this thesis is situated. The first essay proposes a new systematic risk factor, hypothesized to be correlated with changes in investor risk aversion, which manages to explain a large fraction of the return variation in the cross-section of stock returns. The second and third essays investigate the pricing of asset-specific risk, uncorrelated with commonly used risk factors, in the cross-section of stock returns. The three essays mentioned above use stock market data from the U.S. The fourth essay presents a new total return stock market index for the Finnish stock market beginning from the opening of the Helsinki Stock Exchange in 1912 and ending in 1969 when other total return indices become available. Because a total return stock market index for the period prior to 1970 has not been available before, academics and stock market participants have not known the historical return that stock market investors in Finland could have achieved on their investments. The new stock market index presented in essay 4 makes it possible, for the first time, to calculate the historical average return on the Finnish stock market and to conduct further studies that require long time-series of data.