28 resultados para behavioral modeling

em Helda - Digital Repository of University of Helsinki


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Pitch discrimination is a fundamental property of the human auditory system. Our understanding of pitch-discrimination mechanisms is important from both theoretical and clinical perspectives. The discrimination of spectrally complex sounds is crucial in the processing of music and speech. Current methods of cognitive neuroscience can track the brain processes underlying sound processing either with precise temporal (EEG and MEG) or spatial resolution (PET and fMRI). A combination of different techniques is therefore required in contemporary auditory research. One of the problems in comparing the EEG/MEG and fMRI methods, however, is the fMRI acoustic noise. In the present thesis, EEG and MEG in combination with behavioral techniques were used, first, to define the ERP correlates of automatic pitch discrimination across a wide frequency range in adults and neonates and, second, they were used to determine the effect of recorded acoustic fMRI noise on those adult ERP and ERF correlates during passive and active pitch discrimination. Pure tones and complex 3-harmonic sounds served as stimuli in the oddball and matching-to-sample paradigms. The results suggest that pitch discrimination in adults, as reflected by MMN latency, is most accurate in the 1000-2000 Hz frequency range, and that pitch discrimination is facilitated further by adding harmonics to the fundamental frequency. Newborn infants are able to discriminate a 20% frequency change in the 250-4000 Hz frequency range, whereas the discrimination of a 5% frequency change was unconfirmed. Furthermore, the effect of the fMRI gradient noise on the automatic processing of pitch change was more prominent for tones with frequencies exceeding 500 Hz, overlapping with the spectral maximum of the noise. When the fundamental frequency of the tones was lower than the spectral maximum of the noise, fMRI noise had no effect on MMN and P3a, whereas the noise delayed and suppressed N1 and exogenous N2. Noise also suppressed the N1 amplitude in a matching-to-sample working memory task. However, the task-related difference observed in the N1 component, suggesting a functional dissociation between the processing of spatial and non-spatial auditory information, was partially preserved in the noise condition. Noise hampered feature coding mechanisms more than it hampered the mechanisms of change detection, involuntary attention, and the segregation of the spatial and non-spatial domains of working-memory. The data presented in the thesis can be used to develop clinical ERP-based frequency-discrimination protocols and combined EEG and fMRI experimental paradigms.

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Adverse health behaviors as well as obesity are key risk factors for chronic diseases. Working conditions also contribute to health outcomes. It is possible that the effects of psychosocially strenuous working conditions and other work-related factors on health are, to some extent, explained by adverse behaviors. Previous studies about the associations between several working conditions and behavioral outcomes are, however, inconclusive. Moreover, the results are derived mostly from male populations, one national setting only, and with limited information about working conditions and behavioral risk factors. Thus, with an interest in employee health, this study was set to focus on behavioral risk factors among middle-aged employees. More specifically, the main aim was to shed light on the associations of various working conditions with health behaviors, weight gain, obesity, and symptoms of angina pectoris. In addition to national focus, international comparisons were included to test the associations across countries thereby aiming to produce a more comprehensive picture. Furthermore, a special emphasis was on gaining new evidence in these areas among women. The data derived from the Helsinki Health Study, and from collaborative partners at the Whitehall II Study, University College London, UK, and the Toyama University, Japan. In Helsinki, the postal questionnaires were mailed in 2000-2002 to employees of the City of Helsinki, aged 40 60 years (n=8960). The questionnaire data covered e.g., socio-economic indicators and working conditions such as Karasek s job demands and job control, work fatigue, working overtime, work-home interface, and social support. The outcome measures consisted of smoking, drinking, physical activity, food habits, weight gain, obesity, and symptoms of angina pectoris. The international cohorts included comparable data. Logistic regression analysis was used. The models were adjusted for potential confounders such as age, education, occupational class, and marital status subject to specific aims. The results showed that working conditions were mostly unassociated with health behaviors, albeit some associations were found. Low job strain was associated with healthy food habits and non-smoking among women in Helsinki. Work fatigue, in turn, was related to drinking among men and physical inactivity among women. Work fatigue and working overtime were associated with weight gain in Helsinki among both women and men. Finally, work fatigue, low job control, working overtime, and physically strenuous work were associated with symptoms of angina pectoris among women in Helsinki. Cross-country comparisons confirmed mostly non-existent associations. High job strain was associated with physical inactivity and smoking, and passive work with physical inactivity and less drinking. Working overtime, in turn, related to non-smoking and obesity. All these associations were, however, inconsistent between cohorts and genders. In conclusion, the associations of the studied working conditions with the behavioral risk factors lacked general patters, and were, overall, weak considering the prevalence of psychosocially strenuous work and overtime hours. Thus, based on this study, the health effects of working conditions are likely to be mediated by adverse behaviors only to a minor extent. The associations of work fatigue and working overtime with weight gain and symptoms of angina pectoris are, however, of potential importance to the subsequent health and work ability of employees.

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This thesis addresses modeling of financial time series, especially stock market returns and daily price ranges. Modeling data of this kind can be approached with so-called multiplicative error models (MEM). These models nest several well known time series models such as GARCH, ACD and CARR models. They are able to capture many well established features of financial time series including volatility clustering and leptokurtosis. In contrast to these phenomena, different kinds of asymmetries have received relatively little attention in the existing literature. In this thesis asymmetries arise from various sources. They are observed in both conditional and unconditional distributions, for variables with non-negative values and for variables that have values on the real line. In the multivariate context asymmetries can be observed in the marginal distributions as well as in the relationships of the variables modeled. New methods for all these cases are proposed. Chapter 2 considers GARCH models and modeling of returns of two stock market indices. The chapter introduces the so-called generalized hyperbolic (GH) GARCH model to account for asymmetries in both conditional and unconditional distribution. In particular, two special cases of the GARCH-GH model which describe the data most accurately are proposed. They are found to improve the fit of the model when compared to symmetric GARCH models. The advantages of accounting for asymmetries are also observed through Value-at-Risk applications. Both theoretical and empirical contributions are provided in Chapter 3 of the thesis. In this chapter the so-called mixture conditional autoregressive range (MCARR) model is introduced, examined and applied to daily price ranges of the Hang Seng Index. The conditions for the strict and weak stationarity of the model as well as an expression for the autocorrelation function are obtained by writing the MCARR model as a first order autoregressive process with random coefficients. The chapter also introduces inverse gamma (IG) distribution to CARR models. The advantages of CARR-IG and MCARR-IG specifications over conventional CARR models are found in the empirical application both in- and out-of-sample. Chapter 4 discusses the simultaneous modeling of absolute returns and daily price ranges. In this part of the thesis a vector multiplicative error model (VMEM) with asymmetric Gumbel copula is found to provide substantial benefits over the existing VMEM models based on elliptical copulas. The proposed specification is able to capture the highly asymmetric dependence of the modeled variables thereby improving the performance of the model considerably. The economic significance of the results obtained is established when the information content of the volatility forecasts derived is examined.

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In visual object detection and recognition, classifiers have two interesting characteristics: accuracy and speed. Accuracy depends on the complexity of the image features and classifier decision surfaces. Speed depends on the hardware and the computational effort required to use the features and decision surfaces. When attempts to increase accuracy lead to increases in complexity and effort, it is necessary to ask how much are we willing to pay for increased accuracy. For example, if increased computational effort implies quickly diminishing returns in accuracy, then those designing inexpensive surveillance applications cannot aim for maximum accuracy at any cost. It becomes necessary to find trade-offs between accuracy and effort. We study efficient classification of images depicting real-world objects and scenes. Classification is efficient when a classifier can be controlled so that the desired trade-off between accuracy and effort (speed) is achieved and unnecessary computations are avoided on a per input basis. A framework is proposed for understanding and modeling efficient classification of images. Classification is modeled as a tree-like process. In designing the framework, it is important to recognize what is essential and to avoid structures that are narrow in applicability. Earlier frameworks are lacking in this regard. The overall contribution is two-fold. First, the framework is presented, subjected to experiments, and shown to be satisfactory. Second, certain unconventional approaches are experimented with. This allows the separation of the essential from the conventional. To determine if the framework is satisfactory, three categories of questions are identified: trade-off optimization, classifier tree organization, and rules for delegation and confidence modeling. Questions and problems related to each category are addressed and empirical results are presented. For example, related to trade-off optimization, we address the problem of computational bottlenecks that limit the range of trade-offs. We also ask if accuracy versus effort trade-offs can be controlled after training. For another example, regarding classifier tree organization, we first consider the task of organizing a tree in a problem-specific manner. We then ask if problem-specific organization is necessary.

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One of the most tangled fields of research is the field of defining and modeling affective concepts, i. e. concepts regarding emotions and feelings. The subject can be approached from many disciplines. The main problem is lack of generally approved definitions. However, e.g. linguists have recently started to check the consistency of their theories with the help of computer simulations. Definitions of affective concepts are needed for performing similar simulations in behavioral sciences. In this thesis, preliminary computational definitions of affects for a simple utility-maximizing agent are given. The definitions have been produced by synthetizing ideas from theories from several fields of research. The class of affects is defined as a superclass of emotions and feelings. Affect is defined as a process, in which a change in an agent's expected utility causes a bodily change. If the process is currently under the attention of the agent (i.e. the agent is conscious of it), the process is a feeling. If it is not, but can in principle be taken into attention (i.e. it is preconscious), the process is an emotion. Thus, affects do not presuppose consciousness, but emotions and affects do. Affects directed at unexpected materialized (i.e. past) events are delight and fright. Delight is the consequence of an unexpected positive event and fright is the consequence of an unexpected negative event. Affects directed at expected materialized (i.e. past) events are happiness (expected positive event materialized), disappointment (expected positive event did not materialize), sadness (expected negative event materialized) and relief (expected negative event did not materialize). Affects directed at expected unrealized (i.e. future) events are fear and hope. Some other affects can be defined as directed towards originators of the events. The affect classification has also been implemented as a computer program, the purpose of which is to ensure the coherence of the definitions and also to illustrate the capabilities of the model. The exact content of bodily changes associated with specific affects is not considered relevant from the point of view of the logical structure of affective phenomena. The utility function need also not be defined, since the target of examination is only its dynamics.

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Many species inhabit fragmented landscapes, resulting either from anthropogenic or from natural processes. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured populations are affected by a complex interplay between endogenous and exogenous factors. The metapopulation approach, simplifying the landscape to a discrete set of patches of breeding habitat surrounded by unsuitable matrix, has become a widely applied paradigm for the study of species inhabiting highly fragmented landscapes. In this thesis, I focus on the construction of biologically realistic models and their parameterization with empirical data, with the general objective of understanding how the interactions between individuals and their spatially structured environment affect ecological and evolutionary processes in fragmented landscapes. I study two hierarchically structured model systems, which are the Glanville fritillary butterfly in the Åland Islands, and a system of two interacting aphid species in the Tvärminne archipelago, both being located in South-Western Finland. The interesting and challenging feature of both study systems is that the population dynamics occur over multiple spatial scales that are linked by various processes. My main emphasis is in the development of mathematical and statistical methodologies. For the Glanville fritillary case study, I first build a Bayesian framework for the estimation of death rates and capture probabilities from mark-recapture data, with the novelty of accounting for variation among individuals in capture probabilities and survival. I then characterize the dispersal phase of the butterflies by deriving a mathematical approximation of a diffusion-based movement model applied to a network of patches. I use the movement model as a building block to construct an individual-based evolutionary model for the Glanville fritillary butterfly metapopulation. I parameterize the evolutionary model using a pattern-oriented approach, and use it to study how the landscape structure affects the evolution of dispersal. For the aphid case study, I develop a Bayesian model of hierarchical multi-scale metapopulation dynamics, where the observed extinction and colonization rates are decomposed into intrinsic rates operating specifically at each spatial scale. In summary, I show how analytical approaches, hierarchical Bayesian methods and individual-based simulations can be used individually or in combination to tackle complex problems from many different viewpoints. In particular, hierarchical Bayesian methods provide a useful tool for decomposing ecological complexity into more tractable components.