Do Measurement Errors in GDP Announcements Cause Output Fluctuations?

This thesis studies empirically whether measurement errors in aggregate production statistics affect sentiment and future output. Initial announcements of aggregate production are subject to measurement error, because many of the data required to compile the statistics are produced with a lag. This measurement error can be gauged as the difference between the latest revised statistic and its initial announcement. Assuming aggregate production statistics help forecast future aggregate production, these measurement errors are expected to affect macroeconomic forecasts. Assuming agents’ macroeconomic forecasts affect their production choices, these measurement errors should affect future output through sentiment. This thesis is primarily empirical, so the theoretical basis, strategic complementarity, is discussed quite briefly. However, it is a model in which higher aggregate production increases each agent’s incentive to produce. In this circumstance a statistical announcement which suggests aggregate production is high would increase each agent’s incentive to produce, thus resulting in higher aggregate production. In this way the existence of strategic complementarity provides the theoretical basis for output fluctuations caused by measurement mistakes in aggregate production statistics. Previous empirical studies suggest that measurement errors in gross national product affect future aggregate production in the United States. Additionally it has been demonstrated that measurement errors in the Index of Leading Indicators affect forecasts by professional economists as well as future industrial production in the United States. This thesis aims to verify the applicability of these findings to other countries, as well as study the link between measurement errors in gross domestic product and sentiment. This thesis explores the relationship between measurement errors in gross domestic production and sentiment and future output. Professional forecasts and consumer sentiment in the United States and Finland, as well as producer sentiment in Finland, are used as the measures of sentiment. Using statistical techniques it is found that measurement errors in gross domestic product affect forecasts and producer sentiment. The effect on consumer sentiment is ambiguous. The relationship between measurement errors and future output is explored using data from Finland, United States, United Kingdom, New Zealand and Sweden. It is found that measurement errors have affected aggregate production or investment in Finland, United States, United Kingdom and Sweden. Specifically, it was found that overly optimistic statistics announcements are associated with higher output and vice versa.

Towards Multiculturalism in Turkish Public Service Broadcasting

The announcement of Turkey as a European Union (EU) candidate country in the Helsinki Summit (10, 11 December 1999) marked a distinct change of identity policy and attitudes towards its citizens. A result in the shift of mindset has been the launch of the first public service broadcasting TV channel for Kurdish people on the 1st of January 2009. TRT 6 (Şeş) broadcasting in unofficial Kurdish language is run by Turkish Radio and Television Corporation (TRT). The thesis attempts to elaborate on the discussions surrounding the launch of TRT 6, Turkey’s first public service broadcasting TV channel for its Kurdish citizens. The research aims at finding the discourses of multiculturalism and public service broadcasting through the mainstream Turkish newspapers, Cumhuriyet, Hurriyet, Sabah, Taraf and Zaman. The method used for the research is Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) and the representative newspapers of the Turkish print media are under the question: How has the launch of TRT 6, as the first public service broadcasting channel of Turkey in Kurdish language, been discussed by Turkish daily newspapers in terms of multiculturalism and minority media? The most significant results of the research is that the concerning newspapers have mostly discussed the launch of TRT 6 in the same line with their political affiliation. Thus it is comprehensively concluded that the selected newspapers proved holding a high level of political parallelism, and low professionalism. However, it should be noted that Taraf differs itself from others while challenging the hegemonic discourses embedded in the articles of the other newspapers. Moreover, the study detected three types of discourses: Pro-multiculturalism discourse, Unification discourse, and Assimilation discourse. It can be concluded that in Turkey, media owners and even individual journalists have incentives to form ideological alliances with political parties, and media appears to be an instrument of power struggle. Today, Turkey seems to restore Kurdish identity in its identity policy and aims to proceed with the negotiation for membership of the European Union (EU). The country still strives to transform from the traditional nation-state to a multiethnic democratic state, with multiculturalism as a policy discussed throughout the two terms that the AKP government has been in power. However, this transformation is not an easy process because of the deep-rooted traditions of the nation-state structure that has also polarized the Turkish press.