Mammographic mass-screening and future breast cancer burden in Finland

A population-based early detection program for breast cancer has been in progress in Finland since 1987. According to regulations during the study period 1987-2001, free of charge mammography screening was offered every second year to women aged 50-59 years. Recently, the screening service was decided to be extended to age group 50-69. However, the scope of the program is still frequently discussed in public and information about potential impacts of mass-screening practice changes on future breast cancer burden is required. The aim of this doctoral thesis is to present methodologies for taking into account the mass-screening invitation information in breast cancer burden predictions, and to present alternative breast cancer incidence and mortality predictions up to 2012 based on scenarios of the future screening policy. The focus of this work is not on assessing the absolute efficacy but the effectiveness of mass-screening, and, by utilizing the data on invitations, on showing the estimated impacts of changes in an existing screening program on the short-term predictions. The breast cancer mortality predictions are calculated using a model that combines incidence, cause-specific and other cause survival on individual level. The screening invitation data are incorporated into modeling of breast cancer incidence and survival by dividing the program into separate components (first and subsequent rounds and years within them, breaks, and post screening period) and defining a variable that gives the component of the screening program. The incidence is modeled using a Poisson regression approach and the breast cancer survival by applying a parametric mixture cure model, where the patient population is allowed to be a combination of cured and uncured patients. The patients risk to die from other causes than breast cancer is allowed to differ from that of a corresponding general population group and to depend on age and follow-up time. As a result, the effects of separate components of the screening program on incidence, proportion of cured and the survival of the uncured are quantified. According to the predictions, the impacts of policy changes, like extending the program from age group 50-59 to 50-69, are clearly visible on incidence while the effects on mortality in age group 40-74 are minor. Extending the screening service would increase the incidence of localized breast cancers but decrease the rates of non-localized breast cancer. There were no major differences between mortality predictions yielded by alternative future scenarios of the screening policy: Any policy change would have at the most a 3.0% reduction on overall breast cancer mortality compared to continuing the current practice in the near future.

Short-term effects of variable retention on epigaeic spiders and carabid beetles in Finland

Forestry has influenced forest dwelling organisms for centuries in Fennoscandia. For example, in Finland ca. 30% of the threatened species are threatened because of forestry. Nowadays forest management recommendations include practices aimed at maintaining biodiversity in harvesting, such as green-tree retention. However, the effects of these practices have been little studied. In variable retention, different numbers of trees are retained, varying from green-tree retention (at least a few live standing trees in clear-cuts) to thinning (only individual trees removed). I examined the responses of ground-dwelling spiders and carabid beetles to green-tree retention (with small and large tree groups), gap felling and thinning aimed at an uneven age structure of trees. The impacts of these harvesting methods were compared to those of clear-cutting and uncut controls. I aimed to test the hypothesis that retaining more trees positively affects populations of those species of spiders and carabids that were present before harvesting. The data come from two studies. First, spiders were collected with pitfall traps in south-central Finland in 1995 (pre-treatment) and 1998 (after-treatment) in order to examine the effects of clear-cutting, green-tree retention (with 0.01-0.02-ha sized tree groups), gap felling (with three 0.16-ha sized openings in a 1-ha stand), thinning aiming at an uneven age structure of trees and uncut control. Second, spiders and carabids were caught with pitfall traps in eastern Finland in 1998-2001 (pre-treatment and three post-treatment years) in eleven 0.09-0.55-ha sized retention-tree groups and clear-cuts adjacent to them. Original spider and carabid assemblages were better maintained after harvests that retained more trees. Thinning maintained forest spiders well. However, gap felling and large retention-tree groups maintained some forest spider and carabid species in the short-term, but negatively affected some species over time. However, use of small retention-tree groups was associated with negative effects on forest spider populations. Studies are needed on the long-term effects of variable retention on terrestrial invertebrates; especially those directed at defining appropriate retention patch size and on the importance of structural diversity provided by variable retention for invertebrate populations. However, the aims of variable retention should be specified first. For example, are retention-tree groups planned to constitute life-boats , stepping-stones or to create structural diversity? Does it suffice that some species are maintained, or do we want to preserve the most sensitive ones, and how are these best defined? Moreover, the ecological benefits and economic costs of modified logging methods should be compared to other approaches aimed at maintaining biodiversity.

Population dynamics of blue mussels in a variable environment at the edge of their range

Spatial and temporal variation in the abundance of species can often be ascribed to spatial and temporal variation in the surrounding environment. Knowledge of how biotic and abiotic factors operate over different spatial and temporal scales in determining distribution, abundance, and structure of populations lies at the heart of ecology. The major part of the current ecological theory stems from studies carried out in central parts of the distributional range of species, whereas knowledge of how marginal populations function is inadequate. Understanding how marginal populations, living at the edge of their range, function is however in a key position to advance ecology and evolutionary biology as scientific disciplines. My thesis focuses on the factors affecting dynamics of marginal populations of blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) living close to their tolerance limits with regard to salinity. The thesis aims to highlight the dynamics at the edge of the range and contrast these with dynamics in more central parts of the range in order to understand the potential interplay between the central and the marginal part in the focal system. The objectives of the thesis are approached by studies on: (1) factors affecting regional patterns of the species, (2) long-term temporal dynamics of the focal species spaced along a regional salinity gradient, (3) selective predation by increasing populations of roach (Rutilus rutilus) when feeding on their main food item, the blue mussel, (4) the primary and secondary effects of local wave exposure gradients and (5) the role of small-scale habitat heterogeneity as determinants of large-scale pattern. The thesis shows that populations of blue mussels are largely determined by large scale changes in sea water salinity, affecting mainly recruitment success and longevity of local populations. In opposite to the traditional view, the thesis strongly indicate that vertebrate predators strongly affect abundance and size structure of blue mussel populations, and that the role of these predators increases towards the margin where populations are increasingly top-down controlled. The thesis also indicates that the positive role of biogenic habitat modifiers increases towards the marginal areas, where populations of blue mussels are largely recruitment limited. Finally, the thesis shows that local blue mussel populations are strongly dependent on high water turbulence, and therefore, dense populations are constrained to offshore habitats. Finally, the thesis suggests that ongoing sedimentation of rocky shores is detrimental for the species, affecting recruitment success and post-recruit survival, pushing stable mussel beds towards offshore areas. Ongoing large scale changes in the Baltic Sea, especially dilution processes with attendant effects, are predicted to substantially contract the distributional range of the mussel, but also affect more central populations. The thesis shows that in order to understand the functioning of marginal populations, research should (1) strive for multi-scale approaches in order to link ecosystem patterns with ecosystem processes, and (2) challenge the prevailing tenets that origin from research carried out in central areas that may not be valid at the edge.

Search for Maximal Flavor Violating Scalars in Same-Charge Lepton Pairs in pp̅ Collisions at √s=1.96 TeV

Models of Maximal Flavor Violation (MxFV) in elementary particle physics may contain at least one new scalar SU$(2)$ doublet field $\Phi_{FV} = (\eta^0,\eta^+)$ that couples the first and third generation quarks ($q_1,q_3$) via a Lagrangian term $\mathcal{L}_{FV} = \xi_{13} \Phi_{FV} q_1 q_3$. These models have a distinctive signature of same-charge top-quark pairs and evade flavor-changing limits from meson mixing measurements. Data corresponding to 2 fb$^{-1}$ collected by the CDF II detector in $p\bar{p}$ collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 1.96$ TeV are analyzed for evidence of the MxFV signature. For a neutral scalar $\eta^0$ with $m_{\eta^0} = 200$ GeV/$c^2$ and coupling $\xi_{13}=1$, $\sim$ 11 signal events are expected over a background of $2.1 \pm 1.8$ events. Three events are observed in the data, consistent with background expectations, and limits are set on the coupling $\xi_{13}$ for $m_{\eta^0} = 180-300$ GeV/$c^2$.

Exclusion of an Exotic Top Quark with -4/3 Electric Charge Using Soft Lepton Tagging

We present a measurement of the electric charge of the top quark using $\ppbar$ collisions corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.7~fb$^{-1}$ at the CDF II detector. We reconstruct $\ttbar$ events in the lepton+jets final state and use kinematic information to determine which $b$-jet is associated with the leptonically- or hadronically-decaying $t$-quark. Soft lepton taggers are used to determine the $b$-jet flavor. Along with the charge of the $W$ boson decay lepton, this information permits the reconstruction of the top quark's electric charge. Out of 45 reconstructed events with $2.4\pm0.8$ expected background events, 29 are reconstructed as $\ttbar$ with the standard model $+$2/3 charge, whereas 16 are reconstructed as $\ttbar$ with an exotic $-4/3$ charge. This is consistent with the standard model and excludes the exotic scenario at 95\% confidence level. This is the strongest exclusion of the exotic charge scenario and the first to use soft leptons for this purpose.

Search for New Bottomlike Quark Pair Decays QQ̅ →(tW∓)(t̅ W±) in Same-Charge Dilepton Events

We report the most restrictive direct limits on masses of fourth-generation down-type quarks b′, and quarklike composite fermions (B or T5/3), decaying promptly to tW∓. We search for a significant excess of events with two same-charge leptons (e, μ), several hadronic jets, and missing transverse energy. An analysis of data from pp̅ collisions with an integrated luminosity of 2.7  fb-1 collected with the CDF II detector at Fermilab yields no evidence for such a signal, setting mass limits mb′, mB>338  GeV/c2 and mT5/3>365  GeV/c2 at 95% confidence level.

Search for New Bottomlike Quark Pair Decays QQ̅ →(tW∓)(t̅ W±) in Same-Charge Dilepton Events

We report the most restrictive direct limits on masses of fourth-generation down-type quarks $b^{\prime}$, and quark-like composite fermions ($B$ or $T_{5/3}$), decaying promptly to $t W^{\mp}$. We search for a significant excess of events with two same-charge leptons ($e$, $\mu$), several hadronic jets, and missing transverse energy. An analysis of data from $p\overline{p}$ collisions with an integrated luminosity of 2.7 fb$^{-1}$ collected with the CDF II detector at Fermilab yields no evidence for such a signal, setting mass limits $m_{b^{\prime}}, m_{B} >$ 338 $\mathrm{GeV}/c^2$ and $m_{T_{5/3}} >$ 365 $\mathrm{GeV}/c^2$ at 95% confidence level.

Direct Measurement of the W Production Charge Asymmetry in pp̅ Collisions at √s=1.96 TeV

We present the first direct measurement of the $W$ production charge asymmetry as a function of the $W$ boson rapidity $\yW$ in $\ppbar$ collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 1.96$ $\TeV$. We use a sample of $\wenu$ events in data from 1 $\ifb$ of integrated luminosity collected using the CDF II detector. In the region $|\yW|