Estimation of local forest attributes, utilizing two-phase sampling and auxiliary data

This thesis examines the feasibility of a forest inventory method based on two-phase sampling in estimating forest attributes at the stand or substand levels for forest management purposes. The method is based on multi-source forest inventory combining auxiliary data consisting of remote sensing imagery or other geographic information and field measurements. Auxiliary data are utilized as first-phase data for covering all inventory units. Various methods were examined for improving the accuracy of the forest estimates. Pre-processing of auxiliary data in the form of correcting the spectral properties of aerial imagery was examined (I), as was the selection of aerial image features for estimating forest attributes (II). Various spatial units were compared for extracting image features in a remote sensing aided forest inventory utilizing very high resolution imagery (III). A number of data sources were combined and different weighting procedures were tested in estimating forest attributes (IV, V). Correction of the spectral properties of aerial images proved to be a straightforward and advantageous method for improving the correlation between the image features and the measured forest attributes. Testing different image features that can be extracted from aerial photographs (and other very high resolution images) showed that the images contain a wealth of relevant information that can be extracted only by utilizing the spatial organization of the image pixel values. Furthermore, careful selection of image features for the inventory task generally gives better results than inputting all extractable features to the estimation procedure. When the spatial units for extracting very high resolution image features were examined, an approach based on image segmentation generally showed advantages compared with a traditional sample plot-based approach. Combining several data sources resulted in more accurate estimates than any of the individual data sources alone. The best combined estimate can be derived by weighting the estimates produced by the individual data sources by the inverse values of their mean square errors. Despite the fact that the plot-level estimation accuracy in two-phase sampling inventory can be improved in many ways, the accuracy of forest estimates based mainly on single-view satellite and aerial imagery is a relatively poor basis for making stand-level management decisions.

Digitoitujen väri-infrailmakuvien numeerinen monikuvatulkinta metsäninventoinnissa

The use of remote sensing imagery as auxiliary data in forest inventory is based on the correlation between features extracted from the images and the ground truth. The bidirectional reflectance and radial displacement cause variation in image features located in different segments of the image but forest characteristics remaining the same. The variation has so far been diminished by different radiometric corrections. In this study the use of sun azimuth based converted image co-ordinates was examined to supplement auxiliary data extracted from digitised aerial photographs. The method was considered as an alternative for radiometric corrections. Additionally, the usefulness of multi-image interpretation of digitised aerial photographs in regression estimation of forest characteristics was studied. The state owned study area located in Leivonmäki, Central Finland and the study material consisted of five digitised and ortho-rectified colour-infrared (CIR) aerial photographs and field measurements of 388 plots, out of which 194 were relascope (Bitterlich) plots and 194 were concentric circular plots. Both the image data and the field measurements were from the year 1999. When examining the effect of the location of the image point on pixel values and texture features of Finnish forest plots in digitised CIR photographs the clearest differences were found between front-and back-lighted image halves. Inside the image half the differences between different blocks were clearly bigger on the front-lighted half than on the back-lighted half. The strength of the phenomenon varied by forest category. The differences between pixel values extracted from different image blocks were greatest in developed and mature stands and smallest in young stands. The differences between texture features were greatest in developing stands and smallest in young and mature stands. The logarithm of timber volume per hectare and the angular transformation of the proportion of broadleaved trees of the total volume were used as dependent variables in regression models. Five different converted image co-ordinates based trend surfaces were used in models in order to diminish the effect of the bidirectional reflectance. The reference model of total volume, in which the location of the image point had been ignored, resulted in RMSE of 1,268 calculated from test material. The best of the trend surfaces was the complete third order surface, which resulted in RMSE of 1,107. The reference model of the proportion of broadleaved trees resulted in RMSE of 0,4292 and the second order trend surface was the best, resulting in RMSE of 0,4270. The trend surface method is applicable, but it has to be applied by forest category and by variable. The usefulness of multi-image interpretation of digitised aerial photographs was studied by building comparable regression models using either the front-lighted image features, back-lighted image features or both. The two-image model turned out to be slightly better than the one-image models in total volume estimation. The best one-image model resulted in RMSE of 1,098 and the two-image model resulted in RMSE of 1,090. The homologous features did not improve the models of the proportion of broadleaved trees. The overall result gives motivation for further research of multi-image interpretation. The focus may be improving regression estimation and feature selection or examination of stratification used in two-phase sampling inventory techniques. Keywords: forest inventory, digitised aerial photograph, bidirectional reflectance, converted image co­ordinates, regression estimation, multi-image interpretation, pixel value, texture, trend surface

Polymer Protected Gold Nanoparticles

Polymer protected gold nanoparticles have successfully been synthesized by both "grafting-from" and "grafting-to" techniques. The synthesis methods of the gold particles were systematically studied. Two chemically different homopolymers were used to protect gold particles: thermo-responsive poly(N-isopropylacrylamide), PNIPAM, and polystyrene, PS. Both polymers were synthesized by using a controlled/living radical polymerization process, reversible addition-fragmentation chain transfer (RAFT) polymerization, to obtain monodisperse polymers of various molar masses and carrying dithiobenzoate end groups. Hence, particles protected either with PNIPAM, PNIPAM-AuNPs, or with a mixture of two polymers, PNIPAM/PS-AuNPs (i.e., amphiphilic gold nanoparticles), were prepared. The particles contain monodisperse polymer shells, though the cores are somewhat polydisperse. Aqueous PNIPAM-AuNPs prepared using a "grafting-from" technique, show thermo-responsive properties derived from the tethered PNIPAM chains. For PNIPAM-AuNPs prepared using a "grafting-to" technique, two-phase transitions of PNIPAM were observed in the microcalorimetric studies of the aqueous solutions. The first transition with a sharp and narrow endothermic peak occurs at lower temperature, and the second one with a broader peak at higher temperature. In the first transition PNIPAM segments show much higher cooperativity than in the second one. The observations are tentatively rationalized by assuming that the PNIPAM brush can be subdivided into two zones, an inner and an outer one. In the inner zone, the PNIPAM segments are close to the gold surface, densely packed, less hydrated, and undergo the first transition. In the outer zone, on the other hand, the PNIPAM segments are looser and more hydrated, adopt a restricted random coil conformation, and show a phase transition, which is dependent on both particle concentration and the chemical nature of the end groups of the PNIPAM chains. Monolayers of the amphiphilic gold nanoparticles at the air-water interface show several characteristic regions upon compression in a Langmuir trough at room temperature. These can be attributed to the polymer conformational transitions from a pancake to a brush. Also, the compression isotherms show temperature dependence due to the thermo-responsive properties of the tethered PNIPAM chains. The films were successfully deposited on substrates by Langmuir-Blodgett technique. The sessile drop contact angle measurements conducted on both sides of the monolayer deposited at room temperature reveal two slightly different contact angles, that may indicate phase separation between the tethered PNIPAM and PS chains on the gold core. The optical properties of amphiphilic gold nanoparticles were studied both in situ at the air-water interface and on the deposited films. The in situ SPR band of the monolayer shows a blue shift with compression, while a red shift with the deposition cycle occurs in the deposited films. The blue shift is compression-induced and closely related to the conformational change of the tethered PNIPAM chains, which may cause a decrease in the polarity of the local environment of the gold cores. The red shift in the deposited films is due to a weak interparticle coupling between adjacent particles. Temperature effects on the SPR band in both cases were also investigated. In the in situ case, at a constant surface pressure, an increase in temperature leads to a red shift in the SPR, likely due to the shrinking of the tethered PNIPAM chains, as well as to a slight decrease of the distance between the adjacent particles resulting in an increase in the interparticle coupling. However, in the case of the deposited films, the SPR band red-shifts with the deposition cycles more at a high temperature than at a low temperature. This is because the compressibility of the polymer coated gold nanoparticles at a high temperature leads to a smaller interparticle distance, resulting in an increase of the interparticle coupling in the deposited multilayers.

On probability-based inference under data missing by design

Whether a statistician wants to complement a probability model for observed data with a prior distribution and carry out fully probabilistic inference, or base the inference only on the likelihood function, may be a fundamental question in theory, but in practice it may well be of less importance if the likelihood contains much more information than the prior. Maximum likelihood inference can be justified as a Gaussian approximation at the posterior mode, using flat priors. However, in situations where parametric assumptions in standard statistical models would be too rigid, more flexible model formulation, combined with fully probabilistic inference, can be achieved using hierarchical Bayesian parametrization. This work includes five articles, all of which apply probability modeling under various problems involving incomplete observation. Three of the papers apply maximum likelihood estimation and two of them hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Because maximum likelihood may be presented as a special case of Bayesian inference, but not the other way round, in the introductory part of this work we present a framework for probability-based inference using only Bayesian concepts. We also re-derive some results presented in the original articles using the toolbox equipped herein, to show that they are also justifiable under this more general framework. Here the assumption of exchangeability and de Finetti's representation theorem are applied repeatedly for justifying the use of standard parametric probability models with conditionally independent likelihood contributions. It is argued that this same reasoning can be applied also under sampling from a finite population. The main emphasis here is in probability-based inference under incomplete observation due to study design. This is illustrated using a generic two-phase cohort sampling design as an example. The alternative approaches presented for analysis of such a design are full likelihood, which utilizes all observed information, and conditional likelihood, which is restricted to a completely observed set, conditioning on the rule that generated that set. Conditional likelihood inference is also applied for a joint analysis of prevalence and incidence data, a situation subject to both left censoring and left truncation. Other topics covered are model uncertainty and causal inference using posterior predictive distributions. We formulate a non-parametric monotonic regression model for one or more covariates and a Bayesian estimation procedure, and apply the model in the context of optimal sequential treatment regimes, demonstrating that inference based on posterior predictive distributions is feasible also in this case.

Irritable bowel syndrome in the general population : epidemiology, comorbidity and societal costs

Background: Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is a common functional gastrointestinal (GI) disorder characterised by abdominal pain and abnormal bowel function. It is associated with a high rate of healthcare consumption and significant health care costs. The prevalence and economic burden of IBS in Finland has not been studied before. The aims of this study were to assess the prevalence of IBS according to various diagnostic criteria and to study the rates of psychiatric and somatic comorbidity in IBS. In addition, health care consumption and societal costs of IBS were to be evaluated. Methods: The study was a two-phase postal survey. Questionnaire I identifying IBS by Manning 2 (at least two of the six Manning symptoms), Manning 3 (at least three Manning symptoms), Rome I, and Rome II criteria, was mailed to a random sample of 5 000 working age subjects. It also covered extra-GI symptoms such as headache, back pain, and depression. Questionnaire II, covering rates of physician visits, and use of GI medication, was sent to subjects fulfilling Manning 2 or Rome II IBS criteria in Questionnaire I. Results: The response rate was 73% and 86% for questionnaires I and II. The prevalence of IBS was 15.9%, 9.6%, 5.6%, and 5.1% according to Manning 2, Manning 3, Rome I, and Rome II criteria. Of those meeting Rome II criteria, 97% also met Manning 2 criteria. Presence of severe abdominal pain was more often reported by subjects meeting either of the Rome criteria than those meeting either of the Manning criteria. Presence of depression, anxiety, and several somatic symptoms was more common among subjects meeting any IBS criterion than by controls. Of subjects with depressive symptoms, 11.6% met Rome II IBS criteria compared to 3.7% of those with no depressiveness. Subjects meeting any IBS criteria made more physician visits than controls. Intensity of GI symptoms and presence of dyspeptic symptoms were the strongest predictors of GI consultations. Presence of dyspeptic symptoms and a history of abdominal pain in childhood also predicted non-GI visits. Annual GI related individual costs were higher in the Rome II group (497 ) than in the Manning 2 group (295 ). Direct expenses of GI symptoms and non GI physician visits ranged between 98M for Rome II and 230M for Manning 2 criteria. Conclusions: The prevalence of IBS varies substantially depending on the criteria applied. Rome II criteria are more restrictive than Manning 2, and they identify an IBS population with more severe GI symptoms, more frequent health care use, and higher individual health care costs. Subjects with IBS demonstrate high rates of psychiatric and somatic comorbidity regardless of health care seeking status. Perceived symptom severity rather than psychiatric comorbidity predicts health care seeking for GI symptoms. IBS incurs considerable medical costs. The direct GI and non-GI costs are equivalent to up to 5% of outpatient health care and medicine costs in Finland. A more integral approach to IBS by physicians, accounting also for comorbid conditions, may produce a more favourable course in IBS patients and reduce health care expenditures.

Finnish Business Repatriates' Coping Strategies

This thesis explores Finnish business repatriates’ coping strategies. Managing repatriation has been recognized as a demanding task for companies and an important issue in international human resource management. However, we still know relatively little about how repatriates respond to the demands of the return. This thesis addresses this problem by applying a process approach to coping with repatriation. The focus is on identifying repatriates’ coping strategies and the various forms of them. This study also aims to investigate what might influence the use of repatriates’ coping strategies and forms of coping. The background of this doctoral study is provided by earlier research that identified factors influencing repatriates’ adjustment, either positively or negatively. The empirical material of this doctoral thesis comprises twenty-two Phase I semi-structured interviews and ten Phase II follow-up interviews conducted for the purposes of verification. The main findings of the study are formulated as propositions. For instance, it was suggested that repatriates are likely to use different forms of problem-focused strategy more often than various forms of emotion-focused strategy. Moreover, they also are likely to use a larger range of problem-focused strategies than emotion-focused strategies. In addition, in contrast to specialists, repatriates occupying managerial positions are likely to use a greater number and a greater variety of different forms of problem-focused strategy than of emotion-focused strategy, especially in the context of preparing for their return and in different work role changes. This thesis contributes to research on repatriation, expatriation, coping and identifies implications for management.

Non-industrial private forest landowners’ choices of timber management strategies and potential allowable cut.

In the study, the potential allowable cut in the district of Pohjois-Savo - based on the non-industrial private forest landowners' (NIPF) choices of timber management strategies - was clarified. Alternative timber management strategies were generated, and the choices and factors affecting the choices of timber management strategies by NIPF landowners were studied. The choices of timber management strategies were solved by maximizing the utility functions of the NIPF landowners. The parameters of the utility functions were estimated using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The level of the potential allowable cut was compared to the cutting budgets based on the 7th and 8th National Forest Inventories (NFI7 and NFI8), to the combining of private forestry plans, and to the realized drain from non-industrial private forests. The potential allowable cut was calculated using the same MELA system as has been used in the calculation of the national cutting budget. The data consisted of the NIPF holdings (from the TASO planning system) that had been inventoried compartmentwise and had forestry plans made during the years 1984-1992. The NIPF landowners' choices of timber management strategies were clarified by a two-phase mail inquiry. The most preferred strategy obtained was "sustainability" (chosen by 62 % of landowners). The second in order of preference was "finance" (17 %) and the third was "saving" (11 %). "No cuttings", and "maximum cuttings" were the least preferred (9 % and 1 %, resp.). The factors promoting the choices of strategies with intensive cuttings were a) "farmer as forest owner" and "owning fields", b) "increase in the size of the forest holding", c) agriculture and forestry orientation in production, d) "decreasing short term stumpage earning expectations", e) "increasing intensity of future cuttings", and f) "choice of forest taxation system based on site productivity". The potential allowable cut defined in the study was 20 % higher than the average of the realized drain during the years 1988-1993, which in turn, was at the same level as the cutting budget based on the combining of forestry plans in eastern Finland. Respectively, the potential allowable cut defined in the study was 12 % lower than the NFI8-based greatest sustained allowable cut for the 1990s. Using the method presented in this study, timber management strategies can be clarified for non-industrial private forest landowners in different parts of Finland. Based on the choices of timber managemet strategies, regular cutting budgets can be calculated more realistically than before.