Society by Numbers : Studies on Model-Based Explanations in the Social Sciences

The aim of this dissertation is to provide conceptual tools for the social scientist for clarifying, evaluating and comparing explanations of social phenomena based on formal mathematical models. The focus is on relatively simple theoretical models and simulations, not statistical models. These studies apply a theory of explanation according to which explanation is about tracing objective relations of dependence, knowledge of which enables answers to contrastive why and how-questions. This theory is developed further by delineating criteria for evaluating competing explanations and by applying the theory to social scientific modelling practices and to the key concepts of equilibrium and mechanism. The dissertation is comprised of an introductory essay and six published original research articles. The main theses about model-based explanations in the social sciences argued for in the articles are the following. 1) The concept of explanatory power, often used to argue for the superiority of one explanation over another, compasses five dimensions which are partially independent and involve some systematic trade-offs. 2) All equilibrium explanations do not causally explain the obtaining of the end equilibrium state with the multiple possible initial states. Instead, they often constitutively explain the macro property of the system with the micro properties of the parts (together with their organization). 3) There is an important ambivalence in the concept mechanism used in many model-based explanations and this difference corresponds to a difference between two alternative research heuristics. 4) Whether unrealistic assumptions in a model (such as a rational choice model) are detrimental to an explanation provided by the model depends on whether the representation of the explanatory dependency in the model is itself dependent on the particular unrealistic assumptions. Thus evaluating whether a literally false assumption in a model is problematic requires specifying exactly what is supposed to be explained and by what. 5) The question of whether an explanatory relationship depends on particular false assumptions can be explored with the process of derivational robustness analysis and the importance of robustness analysis accounts for some of the puzzling features of the tradition of model-building in economics. 6) The fact that economists have been relatively reluctant to use true agent-based simulations to formulate explanations can partially be explained by the specific ideal of scientific understanding implicit in the practise of orthodox economics.

Jumping numbers of a simple complete ideal in a two-dimensional regular local ring

The multiplier ideals of an ideal in a regular local ring form a family of ideals parametrized by non-negative rational numbers. As the rational number increases the corresponding multiplier ideal remains unchanged until at some point it gets strictly smaller. A rational number where this kind of diminishing occurs is called a jumping number of the ideal. In this manuscript we shall give an explicit formula for the jumping numbers of a simple complete ideal in a two dimensional regular local ring. In particular, we obtain a formula for the jumping numbers of an analytically irreducible plane curve. We then show that the jumping numbers determine the equisingularity class of the curve.

Search for new physics in the μμ+e/μ+E̸T channel with a low-pT lepton threshold at the Collider Detector at Fermilab

A search for new physics using three-lepton (trilepton) data collected with the CDF II detector and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 976 pb-1 is presented. The standard model predicts a low rate of trilepton events, which makes some supersymmetric processes, such as chargino-neutralino production, measurable in this channel. The mu+mu+l signature is investigated, where l is an electron or a muon, with the additional requirement of large missing transverse energy. In this analysis, the lepton transverse momenta with respect to the beam direction (pT) are as low as 5 GeV/c, a selection that improves the sensitivity to particles which are light as well as to ones which result in leptonically decaying tau leptons. At the same time, this low-p_T selection presents additional challenges due to the non-negligible heavy-quark background at low lepton momenta. This background is measured with an innovative technique using experimental data. Several dimuon and trilepton control regions are investigated, and good agreement between experimental results and standard-model predictions is observed. In the signal region, we observe one three-muon event and expect 0.4+/-0.1 mu+mu+l events

Evidence for a Narrow Near-Threshold Structure in the J/ψϕ Mass Spectrum in B+→J/ψϕK+ Decays

Evidence is reported for a narrow structure near the $J/\psi\phi$ threshold in exclusive $B^+\to J/\psi\phi K^+$ decays produced in $\bar{p} p $ collisions at $\sqrt{s}=1.96 \TeV$. A signal of $14\pm5$ events, with statistical significance in excess of 3.8 standard deviations, is observed in a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of $2.7 \ifb$, collected by the CDF II detector. The mass and natural width of the structure are measured to be $4143.0\pm2.9(\mathrm{stat})\pm1.2(\mathrm{syst}) \MeVcc$ and $11.7^{+8.3}_{-5.0}(\mathrm{stat})\pm3.7(\mathrm{syst}) \MeVcc$.

The Negative News Threshold - an Explanation for Negative Skewness in Stock Returns

A vast literature documents negative skewness and excess kurtosis in stock return distributions on several markets. We approach the issue of negative skewness from a different angle than in previous studies by suggesting a model, which we denote the “negative news threshold” hypothesis, that builds on asymmetrically distributed information and symmetric market responses. Our empirical tests reveal that returns for days when non-scheduled news are disclosed are the source of negative skewness in stock returns. This finding lends solid support to our model and suggests that negative skewness in stock returns is induced by asymmetries in the news disclosure policies of firm management.

Magnetorotational instability driven dynamos at low magnetic Prandtl numbers

Numerical simulations of the magnetorotational instability (MRI) with zero initial net flux in a non-stratified isothermal cubic domain are used to demonstrate the importance of magnetic boundary conditions. In fully periodic systems the level of turbulence generated by the MRI strongly decreases as the magnetic Prandtl number (Pm), which is the ratio of kinematic viscosity and magnetic diffusion, is decreased. No MRI or dynamo action below Pm=1 is found, agreeing with earlier investigations. Using vertical field conditions, which allow magnetic helicity fluxes out of the system, the MRI is found to be excited in the range 0.1