Exploiting ground-based measurements of the Global Positioning System for numerical weather prediction

Data assimilation provides an initial atmospheric state, called the analysis, for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). This analysis consists of pressure, temperature, wind, and humidity on a three-dimensional NWP model grid. Data assimilation blends meteorological observations with the NWP model in a statistically optimal way. The objective of this thesis is to describe methodological development carried out in order to allow data assimilation of ground-based measurements of the Global Positioning System (GPS) into the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) NWP system. Geodetic processing produces observations of tropospheric delay. These observations can be processed either for vertical columns at each GPS receiver station, or for the individual propagation paths of the microwave signals. These alternative processing methods result in Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) and Slant Delay (SD) observations, respectively. ZTD and SD observations are of use in the analysis of atmospheric humidity. A method is introduced for estimation of the horizontal error covariance of ZTD observations. The method makes use of observation minus model background (OmB) sequences of ZTD and conventional observations. It is demonstrated that the ZTD observation error covariance is relatively large in station separations shorter than 200 km, but non-zero covariances also appear at considerably larger station separations. The relatively low density of radiosonde observing stations limits the ability of the proposed estimation method to resolve the shortest length-scales of error covariance. SD observations are shown to contain a statistically significant signal on the asymmetry of the atmospheric humidity field. However, the asymmetric component of SD is found to be nearly always smaller than the standard deviation of the SD observation error. SD observation modelling is described in detail, and other issues relating to SD data assimilation are also discussed. These include the determination of error statistics, the tuning of observation quality control and allowing the taking into account of local observation error correlation. The experiments made show that the data assimilation system is able to retrieve the asymmetric information content of hypothetical SD observations at a single receiver station. Moreover, the impact of real SD observations on humidity analysis is comparable to that of other observing systems.

Reformin implementaatio - Michael Fullanin teoriaan perustuva muutosteoreettisten tekijöiden sisällönanalyyttinen tarkastelu Kelpo-kehittämistoiminnan kunnallisten koordinaattoreiden puheessa

The educational reform, launched in Finland in 2008, concerns the implementation of the Special Education Strategy (Opetusministeriö 2007) under an improvement initiative called Kelpo. One of the main proposed alterations of the Strategy relates to the support system of comprehensive school pupils. The existed two-level model (general and special support) is to be altered by the new three-level model (general, intensified and special support). There are 233 municipalities involved nationwide in the Kelpo initiative, each of which has a municipal coordinator as a national delegate. The Centre for Educational Assessment [the Centre] at the University of Helsinki, led by Professor Jarkko Hautamäki, carries out the developmental assessment of the initiative’s developmental process. As a part of that assessment the Centre interviewed 151 municipal coordinators in November 2008. This thesis considers the Kelpo initiative from Michael Fullan’s change theory’s aspect. The aim is to identify the change theoretical factors in the speech of the municipal coordinators interviewed by the Centre, and to constitute a view of what the crucial factors in the reform implementation process are. The appearance of the change theoretical factors, in the coordinators’ speech, and the meaning of these appearances are being considered from the change process point of view. The Centre collected the data by interviewing the municipal coordinators (n=151) in small groups of 4-11 people. The interview method was based on Vesala and Rantanen’s (2007) qualitative attitude survey method which was adapted and evolved for the Centre’s developmental assessment by Hilasvuori. The method of the analysis was a qualitative theory-based content analysis, processed using the Atlas.ti software. The theoretical frame of reference was grounded on Fullan’s change theory and the analysis was based on three change theoretical categories: implementation, cooperation and perspectives in the change process. The analysis of the interview data revealed spoken expressions in the coordinators’ speech which were either positively or negatively related to the theoretical categories. On the grounds of these change theoretical relations the existence of the change process was observed. The crucial factors of reform implementation were found, and the conclusion is that the encounter of the new reform-based and already existing strategies in school produces interface challenges. These challenges are particularly confronted in the context of the implementation of the new three-level support model. The interface challenges are classified as follows: conceptual, method-based, action-based and belief-based challenges. Keywords: reform, implementation, change process, Michael Fullan, Kelpo, intensified support, special support

Kalman Filter Algorithm for Rating and Prediction in Basketball

The Thesis presents a state-space model for a basketball league and a Kalman filter algorithm for the estimation of the state of the league. In the state-space model, each of the basketball teams is associated with a rating that represents its strength compared to the other teams. The ratings are assumed to evolve in time following a stochastic process with independent Gaussian increments. The estimation of the team ratings is based on the observed game scores that are assumed to depend linearly on the true strengths of the teams and independent Gaussian noise. The team ratings are estimated using a recursive Kalman filter algorithm that produces least squares optimal estimates for the team strengths and predictions for the scores of the future games. Additionally, if the Gaussianity assumption holds, the predictions given by the Kalman filter maximize the likelihood of the observed scores. The team ratings allow probabilistic inference about the ranking of the teams and their relative strengths as well as about the teams’ winning probabilities in future games. The predictions about the winners of the games are correct 65-70% of the time. The team ratings explain 16% of the random variation observed in the game scores. Furthermore, the winning probabilities given by the model are concurrent with the observed scores. The state-space model includes four independent parameters that involve the variances of noise terms and the home court advantage observed in the scores. The Thesis presents the estimation of these parameters using the maximum likelihood method as well as using other techniques. The Thesis also gives various example analyses related to the American professional basketball league, i.e., National Basketball Association (NBA), and regular seasons played in year 2005 through 2010. Additionally, the season 2009-2010 is discussed in full detail, including the playoffs.

Dynamics of free-running, pump-modulated and coupled semiconductor and solid-state lasers

The output of a laser is a high frequency propagating electromagnetic field with superior coherence and brightness compared to that emitted by thermal sources. A multitude of different types of lasers exist, which also translates into large differences in the properties of their output. Moreover, the characteristics of the electromagnetic field emitted by a laser can be influenced from the outside, e.g., by injecting an external optical field or by optical feedback. In the case of free-running solitary class-B lasers, such as semiconductor and Nd:YVO4 solid-state lasers, the phase space is two-dimensional, the dynamical variables being the population inversion and the amplitude of the electromagnetic field. The two-dimensional structure of the phase space means that no complex dynamics can be found. If a class-B laser is perturbed from its steady state, then the steady state is restored after a short transient. However, as discussed in part (i) of this Thesis, the static properties of class-B lasers, as well as their artificially or noise induced dynamics around the steady state, can be experimentally studied in order to gain insight on laser behaviour, and to determine model parameters that are not known ab initio. In this Thesis particular attention is given to the linewidth enhancement factor, which describes the coupling between the gain and the refractive index in the active material. A highly desirable attribute of an oscillator is stability, both in frequency and amplitude. Nowadays, however, instabilities in coupled lasers have become an active area of research motivated not only by the interesting complex nonlinear dynamics but also by potential applications. In part (ii) of this Thesis the complex dynamics of unidirectionally coupled, i.e., optically injected, class-B lasers is investigated. An injected optical field increases the dimensionality of the phase space to three by turning the phase of the electromagnetic field into an important variable. This has a radical effect on laser behaviour, since very complex dynamics, including chaos, can be found in a nonlinear system with three degrees of freedom. The output of the injected laser can be controlled in experiments by varying the injection rate and the frequency of the injected light. In this Thesis the dynamics of unidirectionally coupled semiconductor and Nd:YVO4 solid-state lasers is studied numerically and experimentally.

Somali State Failure: Players, Incentives and Institutions

In Somalia the central government collapsed in 1991 and since then state failure became a widespread phenomenon and one of the greatest political and humanitarian problems facing the world in this century. Thus, the main objective of this research is to answer the following question: What went wrong? Most of the existing literature on the political economy of conflict starts from the assumption that state in Africa is predatory by nature. Unlike these studies, the present research, although it uses predation theory, starts from the social contract approach of state definition. Therefore, rather than contemplating actions and policies of the rulers alone, this approach allows us to deliberately bring the role of the society – as citizens – and other players into the analyses. In Chapter 1, after introducing the study, a simple principal-agent model will be developed to check the logical consistence of the argument and to make the identification of causal mechanism easier. I also identify three main actors in the process of state failure in Somalia: the Somali state, Somali society and the superpowers. In Chapter 2, so as to understand the incentives, preferences and constraints of each player in the state failure game, I in some depth analyse the evolution and structure of three central informal institutions: identity based patronage system of leadership, political tribalism, and the Cold War. These three institutions are considered as the rules of the game in the Somali state failure. Chapter 3 summarises the successive civilian governments’ achievements and failures (1960-69) concerning the main national goals, national unification and socio-economic development. Chapter 4 shows that the military regime, although it assumed power through extralegal means, served to some extent the developmental interest of the citizens in the first five years of its rule. Chapter 5 shows the process, and the factors involved, of the military regime’s self-transformation from being an agent for the developmental interests of the society to a predatory state that not only undermines the interests of the society but that also destroys the state itself. Chapter 6 addresses the process of disintegration of the post-colonial state of Somalia. The chapter shows how the regime’s merciless reactions to political ventures by power-seeking opposition leaders shattered the entire country and wrecked the state institutions. Chapter 7 concludes the study by summarising the main findings: due to the incentive structures generated by the informal institutions, the formal state institutions fell apart.

Guessers for Finite-State Transducer Lexicons

Language software applications encounter new words, e.g., acronyms, technical terminology, names or compounds of such words. In order to add new words to a lexicon, we need to indicate their inflectional paradigm. We present a new generally applicable method for creating an entry generator, i.e. a paradigm guesser, for finite-state transducer lexicons. As a guesser tends to produce numerous suggestions, it is important that the correct suggestions be among the first few candidates. We prove some formal properties of the method and evaluate it on Finnish, English and Swedish full-scale transducer lexicons. We use the open-source Helsinki Finite-State Technology to create finitestate transducer lexicons from existing lexical resources and automatically derive guessers for unknown words. The method has a recall of 82-87 % and a precision of 71-76 % for the three test languages. The model needs no external corpus and can therefore serve as a baseline.