Modeling ecological and evolutionary processes in spatially structured populations

Many species inhabit fragmented landscapes, resulting either from anthropogenic or from natural processes. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured populations are affected by a complex interplay between endogenous and exogenous factors. The metapopulation approach, simplifying the landscape to a discrete set of patches of breeding habitat surrounded by unsuitable matrix, has become a widely applied paradigm for the study of species inhabiting highly fragmented landscapes. In this thesis, I focus on the construction of biologically realistic models and their parameterization with empirical data, with the general objective of understanding how the interactions between individuals and their spatially structured environment affect ecological and evolutionary processes in fragmented landscapes. I study two hierarchically structured model systems, which are the Glanville fritillary butterfly in the Åland Islands, and a system of two interacting aphid species in the Tvärminne archipelago, both being located in South-Western Finland. The interesting and challenging feature of both study systems is that the population dynamics occur over multiple spatial scales that are linked by various processes. My main emphasis is in the development of mathematical and statistical methodologies. For the Glanville fritillary case study, I first build a Bayesian framework for the estimation of death rates and capture probabilities from mark-recapture data, with the novelty of accounting for variation among individuals in capture probabilities and survival. I then characterize the dispersal phase of the butterflies by deriving a mathematical approximation of a diffusion-based movement model applied to a network of patches. I use the movement model as a building block to construct an individual-based evolutionary model for the Glanville fritillary butterfly metapopulation. I parameterize the evolutionary model using a pattern-oriented approach, and use it to study how the landscape structure affects the evolution of dispersal. For the aphid case study, I develop a Bayesian model of hierarchical multi-scale metapopulation dynamics, where the observed extinction and colonization rates are decomposed into intrinsic rates operating specifically at each spatial scale. In summary, I show how analytical approaches, hierarchical Bayesian methods and individual-based simulations can be used individually or in combination to tackle complex problems from many different viewpoints. In particular, hierarchical Bayesian methods provide a useful tool for decomposing ecological complexity into more tractable components.

Optical Studies of the Antarctic Glacio-Oceanic System

The Antarctic system comprises of the continent itself, Antarctica, and the ocean surrounding it, the Southern Ocean. The system has an important part in the global climate due to its size, its high latitude location and the negative radiation balance of its large ice sheets. Antarctica has also been in focus for several decades due to increased ultraviolet (UV) levels caused by stratospheric ozone depletion, and the disintegration of its ice shelves. In this study, measurements were made during three Austral summers to study the optical properties of the Antarctic system and to produce radiation information for additional modeling studies. These are related to specific phenomena found in the system. During the summer of 1997-1998, measurements of beam absorption and beam attenuation coefficients, and downwelling and upwelling irradiance were made in the Southern Ocean along a S-N transect at 6°E. The attenuation of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was calculated and used together with hydrographic measurements to judge whether the phytoplankton in the investigated areas of the Southern Ocean are light limited. By using the Kirk formula the diffuse attenuation coefficient was linked to the absorption and scattering coefficients. The diffuse attenuation coefficients (Kpar) for PAR were found to vary between 0.03 and 0.09 1/m. Using the values for KPAR and the definition of the Sverdrup critical depth, the studied Southern Ocean plankton systems were found not to be light limited. Variabilities in the spectral and total albedo of snow were studied in the Queen Maud Land region of Antarctica during the summers of 1999-2000 and 2000-2001. The measurement areas were the vicinity of the South African Antarctic research station SANAE 4, and a traverse near the Finnish Antarctic research station Aboa. The midday mean total albedos for snow were between 0.83, for clear skies, and 0.86, for overcast skies, at Aboa and between 0.81 and 0.83 for SANAE 4. The mean spectral albedo levels at Aboa and SANAE 4 were very close to each other. The variations in the spectral albedos were due more to differences in ambient conditions than variations in snow properties. A Monte-Carlo model was developed to study the spectral albedo and to develop a novel nondestructive method to measure the diffuse attenuation coefficient of snow. The method was based on the decay of upwelling radiation moving horizontally away from a source of downwelling light. This was assumed to have a relation to the diffuse attenuation coefficient. In the model, the attenuation coefficient obtained from the upwelling irradiance was higher than that obtained using vertical profiles of downwelling irradiance. The model results were compared to field measurements made on dry snow in Finnish Lapland and they correlated reasonably well. Low-elevation (below 1000 m) blue-ice areas may experience substantial melt-freeze cycles due to absorbed solar radiation and the small heat conductivity in the ice. A two-dimensional (x-z) model has been developed to simulate the formation and water circulation in the subsurface ponds. The model results show that for a physically reasonable parameter set the formation of liquid water within the ice can be reproduced. The results however are sensitive to the chosen parameter values, and their exact values are not well known. Vertical convection and a weak overturning circulation is generated stratifying the fluid and transporting warmer water downward, thereby causing additional melting at the base of the pond. In a 50-year integration, a global warming scenario mimicked by a decadal scale increase of 3 degrees per 100 years in air temperature, leads to a general increase in subsurface water volume. The ice did not disintegrate due to the air temperature increase after the 50 year integration.

Modeling of Surface UV Radiation Using Satellite Data

Solar UV radiation is harmful for life on planet Earth, but fortunately the atmospheric oxygen and ozone absorb almost entirely the most energetic UVC radiation photons. However, part of the UVB radiation and much of the UVA radiation reaches the surface of the Earth, and affect human health, environment, materials and drive atmospheric and aquatic photochemical processes. In order to quantify these effects and processes there is a need for ground-based UV measurements and radiative transfer modeling to estimate the amounts of UV radiation reaching the biosphere. Satellite measurements with their near-global spatial coverage and long-term data conti-nuity offer an attractive option for estimation of the surface UV radiation. This work focuses on radiative transfer theory based methods used for estimation of the UV radiation reaching the surface of the Earth. The objectives of the thesis were to implement the surface UV algorithm originally developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center for estimation of the surface UV irradiance from the meas-urements of the Dutch-Finnish built Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), to improve the original surface UV algorithm especially in relation with snow cover, to validate the OMI-derived daily surface UV doses against ground-based measurements, and to demonstrate how the satellite-derived surface UV data can be used to study the effects of the UV radiation. The thesis consists of seven original papers and a summary. The summary includes an introduction of the OMI instrument, a review of the methods used for modeling of the surface UV using satellite data as well as the con-clusions of the main results of the original papers. The first two papers describe the algorithm used for estimation of the surface UV amounts from the OMI measurements as well as the unique Very Fast Delivery processing system developed for processing of the OMI data received at the Sodankylä satellite data centre. The third and the fourth papers present algorithm improvements related to the surface UV albedo of the snow-covered land. Fifth paper presents the results of the comparison of the OMI-derived daily erythemal doses with those calculated from the ground-based measurement data. It gives an estimate of the expected accuracy of the OMI-derived sur-face UV doses for various atmospheric and other conditions, and discusses the causes of the differences between the satellite-derived and ground-based data. The last two papers demonstrate the use of the satellite-derived sur-face UV data. Sixth paper presents an assessment of the photochemical decomposition rates in aquatic environment. Seventh paper presents use of satellite-derived daily surface UV doses for planning of the outdoor material weathering tests.