Conceptual and statistical modelling of environmental effects in population dynamics

Population dynamics are generally viewed as the result of intrinsic (purely density dependent) and extrinsic (environmental) processes. Both components, and potential interactions between those two, have to be modelled in order to understand and predict dynamics of natural populations; a topic that is of great importance in population management and conservation. This thesis focuses on modelling environmental effects in population dynamics and how effects of potentially relevant environmental variables can be statistically identified and quantified from time series data. Chapter I presents some useful models of multiplicative environmental effects for unstructured density dependent populations. The presented models can be written as standard multiple regression models that are easy to fit to data. Chapters II IV constitute empirical studies that statistically model environmental effects on population dynamics of several migratory bird species with different life history characteristics and migration strategies. In Chapter II, spruce cone crops are found to have a strong positive effect on the population growth of the great spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos major), while cone crops of pine another important food resource for the species do not effectively explain population growth. The study compares rate- and ratio-dependent effects of cone availability, using state-space models that distinguish between process and observation error in the time series data. Chapter III shows how drought, in combination with settling behaviour during migration, produces asymmetric spatially synchronous patterns of population dynamics in North American ducks (genus Anas). Chapter IV investigates the dynamics of a Finnish population of skylark (Alauda arvensis), and point out effects of rainfall and habitat quality on population growth. Because the skylark time series and some of the environmental variables included show strong positive autocorrelation, the statistical significances are calculated using a Monte Carlo method, where random autocorrelated time series are generated. Chapter V is a simulation-based study, showing that ignoring observation error in analyses of population time series data can bias the estimated effects and measures of uncertainty, if the environmental variables are autocorrelated. It is concluded that the use of state-space models is an effective way to reach more accurate results. In summary, there are several biological assumptions and methodological issues that can affect the inferential outcome when estimating environmental effects from time series data, and that therefore need special attention. The functional form of the environmental effects and potential interactions between environment and population density are important to deal with. Other issues that should be considered are assumptions about density dependent regulation, modelling potential observation error, and when needed, accounting for spatial and/or temporal autocorrelation.

Kalman Filter Algorithm for Rating and Prediction in Basketball

The Thesis presents a state-space model for a basketball league and a Kalman filter algorithm for the estimation of the state of the league. In the state-space model, each of the basketball teams is associated with a rating that represents its strength compared to the other teams. The ratings are assumed to evolve in time following a stochastic process with independent Gaussian increments. The estimation of the team ratings is based on the observed game scores that are assumed to depend linearly on the true strengths of the teams and independent Gaussian noise. The team ratings are estimated using a recursive Kalman filter algorithm that produces least squares optimal estimates for the team strengths and predictions for the scores of the future games. Additionally, if the Gaussianity assumption holds, the predictions given by the Kalman filter maximize the likelihood of the observed scores. The team ratings allow probabilistic inference about the ranking of the teams and their relative strengths as well as about the teams’ winning probabilities in future games. The predictions about the winners of the games are correct 65-70% of the time. The team ratings explain 16% of the random variation observed in the game scores. Furthermore, the winning probabilities given by the model are concurrent with the observed scores. The state-space model includes four independent parameters that involve the variances of noise terms and the home court advantage observed in the scores. The Thesis presents the estimation of these parameters using the maximum likelihood method as well as using other techniques. The Thesis also gives various example analyses related to the American professional basketball league, i.e., National Basketball Association (NBA), and regular seasons played in year 2005 through 2010. Additionally, the season 2009-2010 is discussed in full detail, including the playoffs.

Dynamics of free-running, pump-modulated and coupled semiconductor and solid-state lasers

The output of a laser is a high frequency propagating electromagnetic field with superior coherence and brightness compared to that emitted by thermal sources. A multitude of different types of lasers exist, which also translates into large differences in the properties of their output. Moreover, the characteristics of the electromagnetic field emitted by a laser can be influenced from the outside, e.g., by injecting an external optical field or by optical feedback. In the case of free-running solitary class-B lasers, such as semiconductor and Nd:YVO4 solid-state lasers, the phase space is two-dimensional, the dynamical variables being the population inversion and the amplitude of the electromagnetic field. The two-dimensional structure of the phase space means that no complex dynamics can be found. If a class-B laser is perturbed from its steady state, then the steady state is restored after a short transient. However, as discussed in part (i) of this Thesis, the static properties of class-B lasers, as well as their artificially or noise induced dynamics around the steady state, can be experimentally studied in order to gain insight on laser behaviour, and to determine model parameters that are not known ab initio. In this Thesis particular attention is given to the linewidth enhancement factor, which describes the coupling between the gain and the refractive index in the active material. A highly desirable attribute of an oscillator is stability, both in frequency and amplitude. Nowadays, however, instabilities in coupled lasers have become an active area of research motivated not only by the interesting complex nonlinear dynamics but also by potential applications. In part (ii) of this Thesis the complex dynamics of unidirectionally coupled, i.e., optically injected, class-B lasers is investigated. An injected optical field increases the dimensionality of the phase space to three by turning the phase of the electromagnetic field into an important variable. This has a radical effect on laser behaviour, since very complex dynamics, including chaos, can be found in a nonlinear system with three degrees of freedom. The output of the injected laser can be controlled in experiments by varying the injection rate and the frequency of the injected light. In this Thesis the dynamics of unidirectionally coupled semiconductor and Nd:YVO4 solid-state lasers is studied numerically and experimentally.

On the charging state of atmospheric aerosols and ion-induced nucleation

Floating in the air that surrounds us is a number of small particles, invisible to the human eye. The mixture of air and particles, liquid or solid, is called an aerosol. Aerosols have significant effects on air quality, visibility and health, and on the Earth's climate. Their effect on the Earth's climate is the least understood of climatically relevant effects. They can scatter the incoming radiation from the Sun, or they can act as seeds onto which cloud droplets are formed. Aerosol particles are created directly, by human activity or natural reasons such as breaking ocean waves or sandstorms. They can also be created indirectly as vapors or very small particles are emitted into the atmosphere and they combine to form small particles that later grow to reach climatically or health relevant sizes. The mechanisms through which those particles are formed is still under scientific discussion, even though this knowledge is crucial to make air quality or climate predictions, or to understand how aerosols will influence and will be influenced by the climate's feedback loops. One of the proposed mechanisms responsible for new particle formation is ion-induced nucleation. This mechanism is based on the idea that newly formed particles were ultimately formed around an electric charge. The amount of available charges in the atmosphere varies depending on radon concentrations in the soil and in the air, as well as incoming ionizing radiation from outer space. In this thesis, ion-induced nucleation is investigated through long-term measurements in two different environments: in the background site of Hyytiälä and in the urban site that is Helsinki. The main conclusion of this thesis is that ion-induced nucleation generally plays a minor role in new particle formation. The fraction of particles formed varies from day to day and from place to place. The relative importance of ion-induced nucleation, i.e. the fraction of particles formed through ion-induced nucleation, is bigger in cleaner areas where the absolute number of particles formed is smaller. Moreover, ion-induced nucleation contributes to a bigger fraction of particles on warmer days, when the sulfuric acid and water vapor saturation ratios are lower. This analysis will help to understand the feedbacks associated with climate change.