"You must trust somebody" : Valtio, liberalismi ja sotatarviketeollisuus Britanniassa 1884-1905

Tutkielmassa on tarkasteltu Britannian sotilasviranomaisten ja maan sotatarviketeollisuuden välisiä suhteita vuosina 1884-1905. Kiihtyvän kilpavarustelun myötä Britannian sotilasbudjetit kasvoivat nopeasti, mikä johti maan sotatarviketeollisuuden saamien tilausten määrän nopeaan kasvuun samalla kun tuotteiden teknologinen kehitys oli nopeaa. Sotilasmenojen nopea kasvu antoi sotamateriaalihankinnoista vastaaville viranomaisille mahdollisuuden vaikuttaa yksityisen teollisuuden kehitykseen. Keskittämällä tilaukset vain luotettavina pitämilleen yrityksille viranomaiset loivat näiden kanssa puolivirallisia yhteistyösuhteita ja edistivät samalla voimakkaasti alan keskittymistä. Toisaalta muutamien suuryritysten hallitsemasta sotatarviketuotannosta muodostui yksi niistä harvoista teollisuuden aloista, joilla Britannian nopeasti kasvavat kilpailijat eivät pystyneet ohittamaan sitä enempää tuotteiden teknologisessa tasossa kuin markkinaosuuksien suuruudessakaan. Tiettyjen yritysten suosimisen taustalla ei ollut vain maanpuolustuksen kannalta rationaalinen pyrkimys hankkia riittävän laadukasta ja kehittynyttä sotamateriaalia, vaan asiaan vaikutti myös upseerien ja sotilasministeriöiden siviilivirkamiesten perinteiset aristokraattiset ajattelu- ja toimintamallit. Taloudellisen liberalismin hengessä tapahtuneet pyrkimykset uudistaa hankintamenettelyä vastaamaan enemmän vapaan kilpailun ja taloudellisuuden ihanteita jäivät yleensä tuloksettomiksi. Sotamateriaalihankintoihin liittyvä päätöksenteko vaati suurta asiantuntemusta, mikä johti sotaministeriön ja amiraliteetin virkamiesten vaikutusvallan kasvamiseen. Sotateollisuuden laajeneminen kytkeytyy läheisesti 1900-luvun alussa Britannian yhteiskunnallisessa elämässä tapahtuneeseen muutokseen, jota yleensä on luonnehdittu laissez fairen lopuksi. Jo 1880-luvulla alkaneella puuttumisellaan yksityisten sotateollisuusyritysten kehitykseen viranomaiset olivat alkaneet harjoittaa suunniteltua teollisuuspolitiikkaa, jonka tuloksena syntynyt puolivirallinen sotilasteollinen sektori oli aatteellisesti liberaaliin yhteiskuntaan soveltumaton ilmiö. Aseteollisuudessa Britannian valtio oli siten joutunut ensimmäisen kerran läheiseen vuorovaikutussuhteeseen modernien suuryritysten kanssa. Kytkentä, joka 1900-luvun kuluessa levisi yhä uusille aloille samalla kun valtion roolia talouselämässä alettiin vahvistaa. Tutkimuksen varsinaisen lähdemateriaalin muodostavat Britannian parlamentin pöytäkirjat ja sen komiteoiden raportit Niiden ohella on käytetty päätöksien tekemiseen osallistuneiden tai niihin vaikuttamiseen pyrkineiden poliitikkojen ja sotilaiden painettuja puheita, kirjekokoelmia, päiväkirjoja ja muistelmia sekä eräitä aikakauden historiaa koskevia dokumenttikokoelmia ja tilastojulkaisuja. Oleellista valaistusta asiaan tuovat osaltaan aikalaisten kirjoittamat teokset sekä lehdistö, joista kuvastuu ajalle ominainen ajattelutapa. Aihetta suoranaisesti koskevaa, tieteellisen tutkimusten kriteerit täyttävää aikaisempaa tutkimusta on vähän, mutta aihetta sivuavien tutkimusten määrä on erittäin suuri. Sotamateriaalihankintoja ja niiden taustalla olevia syitä voidaan tarkastella niin talous-, sota- aate-, kuin poliittisen historiankin näkökulmista, mutta yksinään mikään niistä ei ole riittävä tämän tutkimuksen kysymyksenasettelun kannalta. Siten tutkielmaa varten on perehdytty laajasti aikakautta koskevaan tutkimuskirjallisuuteen.

Impulsivity, health-related behaviour and disease : A prospective study

In clinical settings impulsivity refers to a symptom of psychiatric disorder, but nonclinically oriented research treats impulsivity as a personality and temperament dimension. This prospective study examined whether impulsivity predicts adverse health-related behaviour and increased risk of health problems in a large, nonclinical sample of 5433 subjects working in 12 Finnish hospitals. The data were collected using two questionnaire surveys at a 2-year interval. After controlling for alcohol use at baseline, higher impulsivity predicted increased alcohol consumption at follow-up in both genders (p < .01) and was associated with increased likelihood of becoming a heavy drinker or taking up smoking (p < .05). Impulsivity also predicted an increased number of cigarettes smoked per day in the follow-up among women (p < .001), but not among men, although adjustment for the number of cigarettes smoked at baseline attenuated these associations (p = .08 for women). In men, higher impulsivity was associated with shorter sleep duration and waking up several times per night independent of baseline characteristics (p < .01), whereas in women, higher impulsivity predicted difficulty in falling asleep and waking up feeling tired after the usual amount of sleep (p < .05). In women, these associations became nonsignificant after adjustment for pre-existing somatic and psychiatric diseases. Finally, higher impulsivity was associated with an increased 2-year incidence of physician-diagnosed peptic ulcer disease (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 2.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.21 - 4.82) and onset of depression (OR = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.28 - 2.97) after adjustment for a variety of baseline covariates. In conclusion, this study shows that in a nonclinical population, impulsivity appears to be a risk factor for various unhealthy behaviour and health problems.

Mulibrey nanism : Clinical characteristics and pathophysiologic features of growth restriction, insulin resistance and tumour development

Background: Mulibrey nanism (MUL; Muscle-liver-brain-eye nanism; OMIM 253250) is an autosomal recessive growth disorder more prevalent in Finland than elsewhere in the world. Clinical characteristics include severe prenatal onset growth restriction, cardiopathy, multiple organ manifestations but no major neurological handicap. MUL is caused by mutations in the TRIM37 gene on chromosome 17q22-23, encoding a peroxisomal protein TRIM37 with ubiquitin E3-ligase activity. Nineteen different mutations have been detected, four of them present in the Finnish patients. Objective: This study aimed to characterize clinical and histopathological features of MUL in the national cohort of Finnish patients. Patients and methods: A total of 92 Finnish patients (age 0.7 to 77 years) participated in the clinical follow-up study. Patients hospital records and growth charts were reviewed. Physical, radiographic and laboratory examinations were performed according to a clinical protocol. Thirty patients (18 females) were treated with recombinant human GH for a median period of 5.7 years. Biopsies and autopsy samples were used for the histopathological and immunohistochemical analyses. Results: MUL patients were born small for gestational age (SGA) with immature craniofacial features after prenatal-onset growth restriction. They experienced a continuous deceleration in both height SDS and weight-for-height (WFH) postnatally. In infancy feeding difficulties and frequent pneumonias were common problems. At the time of diagnosis (median age 2.1 years) characteristic craniofacial, radiological and ocular features were the most constant findings. MUL patients showed a dramatic change in glucose metabolism with increasing age. While the children had low fasting glucose and insulin levels, 90% of the adults were insulin resistant, half had type 2 diabetes and an additional 42% showed impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). Seventy percent fulfilled the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) Adult Treatment Panel III criteria for metabolic syndrome as adults. GH therapy improved pre-pubertal growth but had only minor impact on adult height (+5 cm). Interestingly, treated subjects were slimmer and had less frequent metabolic concerns as young adults. MUL patients displayed histologically a disturbed architecture with ectopic tissues and a high frequency of both benign and malignant tumours present in several internal organs. A total of 232 tumorous lesions were detected in our patient cohort. The majority of the tumours showed strong expression of endothelial cell marker CD34 as well as α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA). Fifteen of the tumours were malignant and seven of them (five Wilms tumours) occurred in the kidney. Conclusions: MUL patients present a distinct postnatal growth pattern. Short-term response of GH treatment is substantial but the long-term impact remains modest. Although MUL patients form a distinct clinical and diagnostic entity, their clinical findings vary considerably from infancy to adulthood. While failure to thrive dominates early life, MUL adults develop metabolic syndrome and have a tendency for malignancies and vascular lesions in several organs. This speaks for a central role of TRIM37 in regulation of key cellular functions, such as proliferation, migration, angiogenesis and insulin signalling.

Computer simulation of H and He effects in fusion reactor materials

Fusion power is an appealing source of clean and abundant energy. The radiation resistance of reactor materials is one of the greatest obstacles on the path towards commercial fusion power. These materials are subject to a harsh radiation environment, and cannot fail mechanically or contaminate the fusion plasma. Moreover, for a power plant to be economically viable, the reactor materials must withstand long operation times, with little maintenance. The fusion reactor materials will contain hydrogen and helium, due to deposition from the plasma and nuclear reactions because of energetic neutron irradiation. The first wall divertor materials, carbon and tungsten in existing and planned test reactors, will be subject to intense bombardment of low energy deuterium and helium, which erodes and modifies the surface. All reactor materials, including the structural steel, will suffer irradiation of high energy neutrons, causing displacement cascade damage. Molecular dynamics simulation is a valuable tool for studying irradiation phenomena, such as surface bombardment and the onset of primary damage due to displacement cascades. The governing mechanisms are on the atomic level, and hence not easily studied experimentally. In order to model materials, interatomic potentials are needed to describe the interaction between the atoms. In this thesis, new interatomic potentials were developed for the tungsten-carbon-hydrogen system and for iron-helium and chromium-helium. Thus, the study of previously inaccessible systems was made possible, in particular the effect of H and He on radiation damage. The potentials were based on experimental and ab initio data from the literature, as well as density-functional theory calculations performed in this work. As a model for ferritic steel, iron-chromium with 10% Cr was studied. The difference between Fe and FeCr was shown to be negligible for threshold displacement energies. The properties of small He and He-vacancy clusters in Fe and FeCr were also investigated. The clusters were found to be more mobile and dissociate more rapidly than previously assumed, and the effect of Cr was small. The primary damage formed by displacement cascades was found to be heavily influenced by the presence of He, both in FeCr and W. Many important issues with fusion reactor materials remain poorly understood, and will require a huge effort by the international community. The development of potential models for new materials and the simulations performed in this thesis reveal many interesting features, but also serve as a platform for further studies.

Inference on Cointegration in Vector Autoregressive Models (summary section only)

In the thesis we consider inference for cointegration in vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The thesis consists of an introduction and four papers. The first paper proposes a new test for cointegration in VAR models that is directly based on the eigenvalues of the least squares (LS) estimate of the autoregressive matrix. In the second paper we compare a small sample correction for the likelihood ratio (LR) test of cointegrating rank and the bootstrap. The simulation experiments show that the bootstrap works very well in practice and dominates the correction factor. The tests are applied to international stock prices data, and the .nite sample performance of the tests are investigated by simulating the data. The third paper studies the demand for money in Sweden 1970—2000 using the I(2) model. In the fourth paper we re-examine the evidence of cointegration between international stock prices. The paper shows that some of the previous empirical results can be explained by the small-sample bias and size distortion of Johansen’s LR tests for cointegration. In all papers we work with two data sets. The first data set is a Swedish money demand data set with observations on the money stock, the consumer price index, gross domestic product (GDP), the short-term interest rate and the long-term interest rate. The data are quarterly and the sample period is 1970(1)—2000(1). The second data set consists of month-end stock market index observations for Finland, France, Germany, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States from 1980(1) to 1997(2). Both data sets are typical of the sample sizes encountered in economic data, and the applications illustrate the usefulness of the models and tests discussed in the thesis.

Real Estate Investment and Uncertainty: Econometric Modelling using Finnish Data

The purpose of this paper is to test for the effect of uncertainty in a model of real estate investment in Finland during the hihhly cyclical period of 1975 to 1998. We use two alternative measures of uncertainty. The first measure is the volatility of stock market returns and the second measure is the heterogeneity in the answers of the quarterly business survey of the Confederation of Finnish Industry and Employers. The econometric analysis is based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model and the paper applies a 'general-to-specific' modelling approach. We find that the measure of heterogeneity is significant in the model, but the volatility of stock market returns is not. The empirical results give some evidence of an uncertainty-induced threshold slowing down real estate investment in Finland.

Bootstrap and Fast Double Bootstrap Tests of Cointegration Rank with Financial Time Series

The likelihood ratio test of cointegration rank is the most widely used test for cointegration. Many studies have shown that its finite sample distribution is not well approximated by the limiting distribution. The article introduces and evaluates by Monte Carlo simulation experiments bootstrap and fast double bootstrap (FDB) algorithms for the likelihood ratio test. It finds that the performance of the bootstrap test is very good. The more sophisticated FDB produces a further improvement in cases where the performance of the asymptotic test is very unsatisfactory and the ordinary bootstrap does not work as well as it might. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo simulations provide a number of guidelines on when the bootstrap and FDB tests can be expected to work well. Finally, the tests are applied to US interest rates and international stock prices series. It is found that the asymptotic test tends to overestimate the cointegration rank, while the bootstrap and FDB tests choose the correct cointegration rank.

Cobreaking of Stock Prices and Contagion

Financial crises have shown that dramatic movements in one financial market can have a powerful impact on other markets. The paper proposes to use cobreaking to model comovements between financial markets during crises and to test for conta-gion. It finds evidence of cobreaking between stock returns in developed markets. Finding cobreaking has implications for the diversification of international investments. For emerging mar-ket stock returns the evidence of cobreaking is mainly due to the non-financial event of the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001. Fi-nancial crises originating in one emerging market do not spread to other markets, i.e., no contagion.

Panel Cointegration of Chinese A and B Shares

This paper uses panel unit root and cointegration methods to test the stationarity of the premium on domestic investors’ A shares over foreign investors’ B shares and cointegration between the A and B share prices on the Chinese stock exchanges. We find that the A share price premium is nonstationary until 2001, when the A and B share markets were partially merged, and that the A and B share prices are cointegrated in the panel.Cointegration is more likely to be found for firms in the service sector and for firms that issued B shares recently.

Bootstrapping the Error Correction Model Cointegration Test

This paper is concerned with using the bootstrap to obtain improved critical values for the error correction model (ECM) cointegration test in dynamic models. In the paper we investigate the effects of dynamic specification on the size and power of the ECM cointegration test with bootstrap critical values. The results from a Monte Carlo study show that the size of the bootstrap ECM cointegration test is close to the nominal significance level. We find that overspecification of the lag length results in a loss of power. Underspecification of the lag length results in size distortion. The performance of the bootstrap ECM cointegration test deteriorates if the correct lag length is not used in the ECM. The bootstrap ECM cointegration test is therefore not robust to model misspecification.

The Power of Bootstrap Tests of Cointegration Rank with Financial Time Series

Bootstrap likelihood ratio tests of cointegration rank are commonly used because they tend to have rejection probabilities that are closer to the nominal level than the rejection probabilities of the correspond- ing asymptotic tests. The e¤ect of bootstrapping the test on its power is largely unknown. We show that a new computationally inexpensive procedure can be applied to the estimation of the power function of the bootstrap test of cointegration rank. The bootstrap test is found to have a power function close to that of the level-adjusted asymp- totic test. The bootstrap test estimates the level-adjusted power of the asymptotic test highly accurately. The bootstrap test may have low power to reject the null hypothesis of cointegration rank zero, or underestimate the cointegration rank. An empirical application to Euribor interest rates is provided as an illustration of the findings.