26 resultados para Sequential indicator simulation

em Helda - Digital Repository of University of Helsinki


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This thesis is an empirical study of how two words in Icelandic, "nú" and "núna", are used in contemporary Icelandic conversation. My aims in this study are, first, to explain the differences between the temporal functions of "nú" and "núna", and, second, to describe the non-temporal functions of "nú". In the analysis, a focus is placed on comparing the sequential placement of the two words, on their syntactical distribution, and on their prosodic realization. The empirical data comprise 14 hours and 11 minutes of naturally occurring conversation recorded between 1996 and 2003. The selected conversations represent a wide range of interactional contexts including informal dinner parties, institutional and non-institutional telephone conversations, radio programs for teenagers, phone-in programs, and, finally, a political debate on television. The theoretical and methodological framework is interactional linguistics, which can be described as linguistically oriented conversation analysis (CA). A comparison of "nú" and "núna" shows that the two words have different syntactic distributions. "Nú" has a clear tendency to occur in the front field, before the finite verb, while "núna" typically occurs in the end field, after the object. It is argued that this syntactic difference reflects a functional difference between "nú" and "núna". A sequential analysis of "núna" shows that the word refers to an unspecified period of time which includes the utterance time as well as some time in the past and in the future. This temporal relation is referred to as reference time. "Nú", by contrast, is mainly used in three different environments: a) in temporal comparisons, 2) in transitions, and 3) when the speaker is taking an affective stance. The non-temporal functions of "nú" are divided into three categories: a) "nú" as a tone particle, 2) "nú" as an utterance particle, and 3) "nú" as a dialogue particle. "Nú" as a tone particle is syntactically integrated and can occur in two syntactic positions: pre-verbally and post-verbally. I argue that these instances are employed in utterances in which a speaker is foregrounding information or marking it as particularly important. The study shows that, although these instances are typically prosodically non-prominent and unstressed, they are in some cases delivered with stress and with a higher pitch than the surrounding talk. "Nú" as an utterance particle occurs turn-initially and is syntactically non-integrated. By using "nú", speakers show continuity between turns and link new turns to prior ones. These instances initiate either continuations by the same speaker or new turns after speaker shifts. "Nú" as a dialogue particle occurs as a turn of its own. The study shows that these instances register informings in prior turns as unexpected or as a departure from the normal state of affairs. "Nú" as a dialogue particle is often delivered with a prolonged vowel and a recognizable intonation contour. A comparative sequential and prosodic analysis shows that in these cases there is a correlation between the function of "nú" and the intonation contour by which it is delivered. Finally, I argue that despite the many functions of "nú", all the instances can be said to have a common denominator, which is to display attention towards the present moment and the utterances which are produced prior or after the production of "nú". Instead of anchoring the utterances in external time or reference time, these instances position the utterance in discourse internal time, or discourse time.

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Forest management is facing new challenges under climate change. By adjusting thinning regimes, conventional forest management can be adapted to various objectives of utilization of forest resources, such as wood quality, forest bioenergy, and carbon sequestration. This thesis aims to develop and apply a simulation-optimization system as a tool for an interdisciplinary understanding of the interactions between wood science, forest ecology, and forest economics. In this thesis, the OptiFor software was developed for forest resources management. The OptiFor simulation-optimization system integrated the process-based growth model PipeQual, wood quality models, biomass production and carbon emission models, as well as energy wood and commercial logging models into a single optimization model. Osyczka s direct and random search algorithm was employed to identify optimal values for a set of decision variables. The numerical studies in this thesis broadened our current knowledge and understanding of the relationships between wood science, forest ecology, and forest economics. The results for timber production show that optimal thinning regimes depend on site quality and initial stand characteristics. Taking wood properties into account, our results show that increasing the intensity of thinning resulted in lower wood density and shorter fibers. The addition of nutrients accelerated volume growth, but lowered wood quality for Norway spruce. Integrating energy wood harvesting into conventional forest management showed that conventional forest management without energy wood harvesting was still superior in sparse stands of Scots pine. Energy wood from pre-commercial thinning turned out to be optimal for dense stands. When carbon balance is taken into account, our results show that changing carbon assessment methods leads to very different optimal thinning regimes and average carbon stocks. Raising the carbon price resulted in longer rotations and a higher mean annual increment, as well as a significantly higher average carbon stock over the rotation.

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Segmentation is a data mining technique yielding simplified representations of sequences of ordered points. A sequence is divided into some number of homogeneous blocks, and all points within a segment are described by a single value. The focus in this thesis is on piecewise-constant segments, where the most likely description for each segment and the most likely segmentation into some number of blocks can be computed efficiently. Representing sequences as segmentations is useful in, e.g., storage and indexing tasks in sequence databases, and segmentation can be used as a tool in learning about the structure of a given sequence. The discussion in this thesis begins with basic questions related to segmentation analysis, such as choosing the number of segments, and evaluating the obtained segmentations. Standard model selection techniques are shown to perform well for the sequence segmentation task. Segmentation evaluation is proposed with respect to a known segmentation structure. Applying segmentation on certain features of a sequence is shown to yield segmentations that are significantly close to the known underlying structure. Two extensions to the basic segmentation framework are introduced: unimodal segmentation and basis segmentation. The former is concerned with segmentations where the segment descriptions first increase and then decrease, and the latter with the interplay between different dimensions and segments in the sequence. These problems are formally defined and algorithms for solving them are provided and analyzed. Practical applications for segmentation techniques include time series and data stream analysis, text analysis, and biological sequence analysis. In this thesis segmentation applications are demonstrated in analyzing genomic sequences.

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The tackling of coastal eutrophication requires water protection measures based on status assessments of water quality. The main purpose of this thesis was to evaluate whether it is possible both scientifically and within the terms of the European Union Water Framework Directive (WFD) to assess the status of coastal marine waters reliably by using phytoplankton biomass (ww) and chlorophyll a (Chl) as indicators of eutrophication in Finnish coastal waters. Empirical approaches were used to study whether the criteria, established for determining an indicator, are fulfilled. The first criterion (i) was that an indicator should respond to anthropogenic stresses in a predictable manner and has low variability in its response. Summertime Chl could be predicted accurately by nutrient concentrations, but not from the external annual loads alone, because of the rapid affect of primary production and sedimentation close to the loading sources in summer. The most accurate predictions were achieved in the Archipelago Sea, where total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) alone accounted for 87% and 78% of the variation in Chl, respectively. In river estuaries, the TP mass-balance regression model predicted Chl most accurately when nutrients originated from point-sources, whereas land-use regression models were most accurate in cases when nutrients originated mainly from diffuse sources. The inclusion of morphometry (e.g. mean depth) into nutrient models improved accuracy of the predictions. The second criterion (ii) was associated with the WFD. It requires that an indicator should have type-specific reference conditions, which are defined as "conditions where the values of the biological quality elements are at high ecological status". In establishing reference conditions, the empirical approach could only be used in the outer coastal water types, where historical observations of Secchi depth of the early 1900s are available. The most accurate prediction was achieved in the Quark. In the inner coastal water types, reference Chl, estimated from present monitoring data, are imprecise - not only because of the less accurate estimation method but also because the intrinsic characteristics, described for instance by morphometry, vary considerably inside these extensive inner coastal types. As for phytoplankton biomass, the reference values were less accurate than in the case of Chl, because it was possible to estimate reference conditions for biomass only by using the reconstructed Chl values, not the historical Secchi observations. An paleoecological approach was also applied to estimate annual average reference conditions for Chl. In Laajalahti, an urban embayment off Helsinki, strongly loaded by municipal waste waters in the 1960s and 1970s, reference conditions prevailed in the mid- and late 1800s. The recovery of the bay from pollution has been delayed as a consequence of benthic release of nutrients. Laajalahti will probably not achieve the good quality objectives of the WFD on time.    The third criterion (iii) was associated with coastal management including the resources it has available. Analyses of Chl are cheap and fast to carry out compared to the analyses of phytoplankton biomass and species composition; the fact which has an effect on number of samples to be taken and thereby on the reliability of assessments. However, analyses on phytoplankton biomass and species composition provide more metrics for ecological classification, the metrics which reveal various aspects of eutrophication contrary to what Chl alone does.