Dynamics of Finnish starlings in 1951-2005 : from monitoring to population modelling

Farmland bird species have been declining in Europe. Many declines have coincided with general intensification of farming practices. In Finland, replacement of mixed farming, including rotational pastures, with specialized cultivation has been one of the most drastic changes from the 1960s to the 1990s. This kind of habitat deterioration limits the persistence of populations, as has been previously indicated from local populations. Integrated population monitoring, which gathers species-specific information of population size and demography, can be used to assess the response of a population to environment changes also at a large spatial scale. I targeted my analysis at the Finnish starling (Sturnus vulgaris). Starlings are common breeders in farmland habitats, but severe declines of local populations have been reported from Finland in the 1970s and 1980s and later from other parts of Europe. Habitat deterioration (replacement of pasture and grassland habitats with specialized cultivation areas) limits reproductive success of the species. I analysed regional population data in order to exemplify the importance of agricultural change to bird population dynamics. I used nestling ringing and nest-card data from 1951 to 2005 in order to quantify population trends and per capita reproductive success within several geographical regions (south/north and west/east aspects). I used matrix modelling, acknowledging age-specific survival and fecundity parameters and density-dependence, to model population dynamics. Finnish starlings declined by 80% from the end of the 1960s up to the end of the 1980s. The observed patterns and the model indicated that the population decline was due to the decline of the carrying capacity of farmland habitats. The decline was most severe in north Finland where populations largely become extinct. However, habitat deterioration was most severe in the southern breeding areas. The deteriorations in habitat quality decreased reproduction, which finally caused the decline. I suggest that poorly-productive northern populations have been partly maintained by immigration from the highly-productive southern populations. As the southern populations declined, ceasing emigration caused the population extinction in north. This phenomenon was explained with source sink population dynamics, which I structured and verified on the basis of a spatially explicit simulation model. I found that southern Finnish starling population exhibits ten-year cyclic regularity, a phenomenon that can be explained with delayed density-dependence in reproduction.

Studies of Earth Dynamics with the Superconducting Gravimeter

The superconducting (or cryogenic) gravimeter (SG) is based on the levitation of a super­conducting sphere in a stable magnetic field created by current in superconducting coils. Depending on frequency, it is capable of detecting gravity variations as small as 10-11ms-2. For a single event, the detection threshold is higher, conservatively about 10-9 ms-2. Due to its high sensitivity and low drift rate, the SG is eminently suitable for the study of geodynamical phenomena through their gravity signatures. I present investigations of Earth dynamics with the superconducting gravimeter GWR T020 at Metsähovi from 1994 to 2005. The history and key technical details of the installation are given. The data processing methods and the development of the local tidal model at Metsähovi are presented. The T020 is a part of the worldwide GGP (Global Geodynamics Project) network, which consist of 20 working station. The data of the T020 and of other participating SGs are available to the scientific community. The SG T020 have used as a long-period seismometer to study microseismicity and the Earth s free oscillation. The annual variation, spectral distribution, amplitude and the sources of microseism at Metsähovi were presented. Free oscillations excited by three large earthquakes were analyzed: the spectra, attenuation and rotational splitting of the modes. The lowest modes of all different oscillation types are studied, i.e. the radial mode 0S0, the "football mode" 0S2, and the toroidal mode 0T2. The very low level (0.01 nms-1) incessant excitation of the Earth s free oscillation was detected with the T020. The recovery of global and regional variations in gravity with the SG requires the modelling of local gravity effects. The most important of them is hydrology. The variation in the groundwater level at Metsähovi as measured in a borehole in the fractured bedrock correlates significantly (0.79) with gravity. The influence of local precipitation, soil moisture and snow cover are detectable in the gravity record. The gravity effect of the variation in atmospheric mass and that of the non-tidal loading by the Baltic Sea were investigated together, as sea level and air pressure are correlated. Using Green s functions it was calculated that a 1 metre uniform layer of water in the Baltic Sea increases the gravity at Metsähovi by 31 nms-2 and the vertical deformation is -11 mm. The regression coefficient for sea level is 27 nms-2m-1, which is 87% of the uniform model. These studies are associated with temporal height variations using the GPS data of Metsähovi permanent station. Results of long time series at Metsähovi demonstrated high quality of data and correctly carried out offsets and drift corrections. The superconducting gravimeter T020 has been proved to be an eminent and versatile tool in studies of the Earth dynamics.

Lightcurve inversion for asteroid spins and shapes

Knowledge of the physical properties of asteroids is crucial in many branches of solar-system research. Knowledge of the spin states and shapes is needed, e.g., for accurate orbit determination and to study the history and evolution of the asteroids. In my thesis, I present new methods for using photometric lightcurves of asteroids in the determination of their spin states and shapes. The convex inversion method makes use of a general polyhedron shape model and provides us at best with an unambiguous spin solution and a convex shape solution that reproduces the main features of the original shape. Deriving information about the non-convex shape features is, in principle, also possible, but usually requires a priori information about the object. Alternatively, a distribution of non-convex solutions, describing the scale of the non-convexities, is also possible to be obtained. Due to insufficient number of absolute observations and inaccurately defined asteroid phase curves, the $c/b$-ratio, i.e., the flatness of the shape model is often somewhat ill-defined. However, especially in the case of elongated objects, the flatness seems to be quite well constrained, even in the case when only relative lightcurves are available. The results prove that it is, contrary to the earlier misbelief, possible to derive shape information from the lightcurve data if a sufficiently wide range of observing geometries is covered by the observations. Along with the more accurate shape models, also the rotational states, i.e., spin vectors and rotation periods, are defined with improved accuracy. The shape solutions obtained so far reveal a population of irregular objects whose most descriptive shape characteristics, however, can be expressed with only a few parameters. Preliminary statistical analyses for the shapes suggests that there are correlations between shape and other physical properties, such as the size, rotation period and taxonomic type of the asteroids. More shape data of, especially, the smallest and largest asteroids, as well as the fast and slow rotators is called for in order to be able to study the statistics more thoroughly.

Reynolds stress and heat flux in spherical shell convection

Context. Turbulent fluxes of angular momentum and heat due to rotationally affected convection play a key role in determining differential rotation of stars. Aims. We compute turbulent angular momentum and heat transport as functions of the rotation rate from stratified convection. We compare results from spherical and Cartesian models in the same parameter regime in order to study whether restricted geometry introduces artefacts into the results. Methods. We employ direct numerical simulations of turbulent convection in spherical and Cartesian geometries. In order to alleviate the computational cost in the spherical runs and to reach as high spatial resolution as possible, we model only parts of the latitude and longitude. The rotational influence, measured by the Coriolis number or inverse Rossby number, is varied from zero to roughly seven, which is the regime that is likely to be realised in the solar convection zone. Cartesian simulations are performed in overlapping parameter regimes. Results. For slow rotation we find that the radial and latitudinal turbulent angular momentum fluxes are directed inward and equatorward, respectively. In the rapid rotation regime the radial flux changes sign in accordance with earlier numerical results, but in contradiction with theory. The latitudinal flux remains mostly equatorward and develops a maximum close to the equator. In Cartesian simulations this peak can be explained by the strong 'banana cells'. Their effect in the spherical case does not appear to be as large. The latitudinal heat flux is mostly equatorward for slow rotation but changes sign for rapid rotation. Longitudinal heat flux is always in the retrograde direction. The rotation profiles vary from anti-solar (slow equator) for slow and intermediate rotation to solar-like (fast equator) for rapid rotation. The solar-like profiles are dominated by the Taylor-Proudman balance.