Reacting to Complex Threats – the Securitization in the Speeches of Anders Fogh Rasmussen based on NATO´s New Strategic Concept

The purpose of this master´s thesis is to analyze how NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen is trying to justify the existence of the military alliance through the use of security arguments. I am puzzled by the question: why does NATO still exist – what is NATO’s raison d'être. The New Strategic Concept (2010) forms the base for his argumentation. This thesis focuses on the security argumentation of NATO which is examined by analyzing the speeches the Secretary General. The theoretical framework of this study is based on constructivist approach to international security examining the linguistic process of securitization. Issues become securitized after Anders Fogh Rasmussen names them as threats. This thesis focuses on the securitization process relating to NATO and analyses what issues Rasmussen raises to the security agenda. Research data consists of the speeches by Anders Fogh Rasmussen. They are analyzed through J.L. Austin’s speech act taxonomy and Chaïm Perelman’s argumentation theories. The thesis will concentrate on the formulation and articulation of these threats which are considered and coined as “new threats” in contemporary international relations. I am conducting this research through the use of securitization theory. This study illustrates that the threats are constructed by NATO’s member-states in unison, but the resolutions are sounded through Rasmussen’s official speeches and transcripts. . Based on the analysis it can be concluded that Rasmussen is giving reasons for the existence of NATO. This takes place by making use of speech acts and different rhetorical techniques. The results of the analysis indicate that NATO remains an essential organization for the West and the rest of the world according to the Secretary General.

History, Transfer, Politics : Five studies on the legacy of Uppsala philosophy

The Uppsala school of Axel Hägerström can be said to have been the last genuinely Swedish philosophical movement. On the other hand, the Swedish analytic tradition is often said to have its roots in Hägerström s thought. This work examines the transformation from Uppsala philosophy to analytic philosophy from an actor-based historical perspective. The aim is to describe how a group of younger scholars (Ingemar Hedenius, Konrad Marc-Wogau, Anders Wedberg, Alf Ross, Herbert Tingsten, Gunnar Myrdal) colonised the legacy of Hägerström and Uppsala philosophy, and faced the challenges they met in trying to reconcile this legacy with the changing philosophical and political currents of the 1930s and 40s. Following Quentin Skinner, the texts are analysed as moves or speech acts in a particular historical context. The thesis consists of five previously published case studies and an introduction. The first study describes how the image of Hägerström as the father of the Swedish analytic tradition was created by a particular faction of younger Uppsala philosophers who (re-) presented the Hägerströmian philosophy as a parallel movement to logical empiricism. The second study examines the confrontations between Uppsala philosophy and logical empiricism in both the editorial board and in the pages of Sweden s leading philosophical journal Theoria. The third study focuses on how the younger generation redescribed Hägerströmian legal philosophical ideas (Scandinavian Legal Realism), while the fourth study discusses how they responded to the accusations of a connection between Hägerström s value nihilistic theory and totalitarianism. Finally, the fifth study examines how the Swedish social scientist and Social Democratic intellectual Gunnar Myrdal tried to reconcile value nihilism with a strong political programme for social reform. The contribution of this thesis to the field consists mainly in a re-evaluation of the role of Uppsala philosophy in the history of Swedish philosophy. From this perspective the Uppsala School was less a collection of certain definite philosophical ideas than an intellectual legacy that was the subject of fierce struggles. Its theories and ideas were redescribed in various ways by individual actors with different philosophical and political intentions.

The viral coat protein is regulated by HSP70 and HSP40 in Potato virus A infection

Plus-stranded (plus) RNA viruses multiply within a cellular environment as tightly integrated units and rely on the genetic information carried within their genomes for multiplication and, hence, persistence. The minimal genomes of plus RNA viruses are unable to encode the molecular machineries that are required for virus multiplication. This sets requisites for the virus, which must form compatible interactions with host components during multiplication to successfully utilize primary metabolites as building blocks or metabolic energy, and to divert the protein synthesis machinery for production of viral proteins. In fact, the emerging picture of a virus-infected cell displays tight integration with the virus, from simple host and virus protein interactions through to major changes in the physiological state of the host cell. This study set out to develop a method for the identification of host components, mainly host proteins, that interact with proteins of Potato virus A (PVA; Potyvirus) during infection. This goal was approached by developing affinity-tag based methods for the purification of viral proteins complexed with associated host proteins from infected plants. Using this method, host membrane-associated viral ribonucleoprotein (RNP) complexes were obtained, and several host and viral proteins could be identified as components of these complexes. One of the host proteins identified using this strategy was a member of the heat shock protein 70 (HSP70) family, and this protein was chosen for further analysis. To enable the analysis of viral gene expression, a second method was developed based on Agrobacterium-mediated virus genome delivery into plant cells, and detection of virally expressed Renilla luciferase (RLUC) as a quantitative measure of viral gene expression. Using this method, it was observed that down-regulation of HSP70 caused a PVA coat protein (CP)-mediated defect associated with replication. Further experimentation suggested that CP can inhibit viral gene expression and that a distinct translational activity coupled to replication, referred to as replication-associated translation (RAT), exists. Unlike translation of replication-deficient viral RNA, RAT was dependent on HSP70 and its co-chaperone CPIP. HSP70 and CPIP together regulated CP turnover by promoting its modification by ubiquitin. Based on these results, an HSP70 and CPIP-driven mechanism that functions to regulate CP during viral RNA replication and/or translation is proposed, possibly to prevent premature particle assembly caused by CP association with viral RNA.

Reconstruction of past UV radiation

Solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation has a broad range of effects concerning life on Earth. Soon after the mid-1980s, it was recognized that the stratospheric ozone content was declining over large areas of the globe. Because the stratospheric ozone layer protects life on Earth from harmful UV radiation, this lead to concern about possible changes in the UV radiation due to anthropogenic activity. Initiated by this concern, many stations for monitoring of the surface UV radiation were founded in the late 1980s and early 1990s. As a consequence, there is an apparent lack of information on UV radiation further in the past: measurements cannot tell us how the UV radiation levels have changed on time scales of, for instance, several decades. The aim of this thesis was to improve our understanding of past variations in the surface UV radiation by developing techniques for UV reconstruction. Such techniques utilize commonly available meteorological data together with measurements of the total ozone column for reconstructing, or estimating, the amount of UV radiation reaching Earth's surface in the past. Two different techniques for UV reconstruction were developed. Both are based on first calculating the clear-sky UV radiation using a radiative transfer model. The clear-sky value is then corrected for the effect of clouds based on either (i) sunshine duration or (ii) pyranometer measurements. Both techniques account also for the variations in the surface albedo caused by snow, whereas aerosols are included as a typical climatological aerosol load. Using these methods, long time series of reconstructed UV radiation were produced for five European locations, namely Sodankylä and Jokioinen in Finland, Bergen in Norway, Norrköping in Sweden, and Davos in Switzerland. Both UV reconstruction techniques developed in this thesis account for the greater part of the factors affecting the amount of UV radiation reaching the Earth's surface. Thus, they are considered reliable and trustworthy, as suggested also by the good performance of the methods. The pyranometer-based method shows better performance than the sunshine-based method, especially for daily values. For monthly values, the difference between the performances of the methods is smaller, indicating that the sunshine-based method is roughly as good as the pyranometer-based for assessing long-term changes in the surface UV radiation. The time series of reconstructed UV radiation produced in this thesis provide new insight into the past UV radiation climate and how the UV radiation has varied throughout the years. Especially the sunshine-based UV time series, extending back to 1926 and 1950 at Davos and Sodankylä, respectively, also put the recent changes driven by the ozone decline observed over the last few decades into perspective. At Davos, the reconstructed UV over the period 1926-2003 shows considerable variation throughout the entire period, with high values in the mid-1940s, early 1960s, and in the 1990s. Moreover, the variations prior to 1980 were found to be caused primarily by variations in the cloudiness, while the increase of 4.5 %/decade over the period 1979-1999 was supported by both the decline in the total ozone column and changes in the cloudiness. Of the other stations included in this work, both Sodankylä and Norrköping show a clear increase in the UV radiation since the early 1980s (3-4 %/decade), driven primarily by changes in the cloudiness, and to a lesser extent by the diminution of the total ozone. At Jokioinen, a weak increase was found, while at Bergen there was no considerable overall change in the UV radiation level.

Expected Performance of the ATLAS Experiment - Detector, Trigger and Physics

A detailed study is presented of the expected performance of the ATLAS detector. The reconstruction of tracks, leptons, photons, missing energy and jets is investigated, together with the performance of b-tagging and the trigger. The physics potential for a variety of interesting physics processes, within the Standard Model and beyond, is examined. The study comprises a series of notes based on simulations of the detector and physics processes, with particular emphasis given to the data expected from the first years of operation of the LHC at CERN.

The Philosophical Age. Almanac. Issue 36. The Northern Lights

keywords: Enlightenment, Northern countries, Finland, Russia, Scotland In the 36 th edition of the almanac "Philosophical Age" published materials of international symposium «The Northern Lights - Facets of Enlightenment Culture», (held September 25-26, 2009) in The Aleksanteri Institute the University of Helsinki. Contents: Vesa Oittinen Between Radicalism and Utilitarianism — On the Profile of the Finnish Enlightenment Tatiana Artemyeva The Status of Intellectual Values in the Russian Enlightenment Oili Pulkkinen The Cosmopolitan Experience, Theoretical Histories and the Universal Science of the Scottish Enlightenment Аlla Zlatopolskaya L’autocritique des Lumières chez Rousseau et le rousseauisme russe Johannes Remy Alexander Radishchev, Ethical Consuming, and North American Quakers Kimmo Sarje Anders Chydenius and Radical Swedish Enlightenment Johan Sten Anders Johan Lexell: A Finnish Astronomer at St. Petersburg Academy of Sciences and His European Contacts Mikhail Mikeshin A Russian Adam Smith in French Style: An Example of the Transfer of Ideas Larisa Agamalian The Library of an Enlightened Russian Landowner

Essays on Stock Market Reactions to New Information

A functioning stock market is an essential component of a competitive economy, since it provides a mechanism for allocating the economy’s capital stock. In an ideal situation, the stock market will steer capital in a manner that maximizes the total utility of the economy. As prices of traded stocks depend on and vary with information available to investors, it is apparent that information plays a crucial role in a functioning stock market. However, even though information indisputably matters, several issues regarding how stock markets process and react to new information still remain unanswered. The purpose of this thesis is to explore the link between new information and stock market reactions. The first essay utilizes new methodological tools in order to investigate the average reaction of investors to new financial statement information. The second essay explores the behavior of different types of investors when new financial statement information is disclosed to the market. The third essay looks into the interrelation between investor size, behavior and overconfidence. The fourth essay approaches the puzzle of negative skewness in stock returns from an altogether different angle than previous studies. The first essay presents evidence of the second derivatives of some financial statement signals containing more information than the first derivatives. Further, empirical evidence also indicates that some of the investigated signals proxy risk while others contain information priced with a delay. The second essay documents different categories of investors demonstrating systematical differences in their behavior when new financial statement information arrives to the market. In addition, a theoretical model building on differences in investor overconfidence is put forward in order to explain the observed behavior. The third essay shows that investor size describes investor behavior very well. This finding is predicted by the model proposed in the second essay, and hence strengthens the model. The behavioral differences between investors of different size furthermore have significant economic implications. Finally, the fourth essay finds strong evidence of management news disclosure practices causing negative skewness in stock returns.

Essays on the Modeling and Prediction of Volatility and Higher Moments of Stock Returns (summary section only)

One of the most fundamental and widely accepted ideas in finance is that investors are compensated through higher returns for taking on non-diversifiable risk. Hence the quantification, modeling and prediction of risk have been, and still are one of the most prolific research areas in financial economics. It was recognized early on that there are predictable patterns in the variance of speculative prices. Later research has shown that there may also be systematic variation in the skewness and kurtosis of financial returns. Lacking in the literature so far, is an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the potential benefits of these new more complicated models with time-varying higher moments. Such an evaluation is the topic of this dissertation. Essay 1 investigates the forecast performance of the GARCH (1,1) model when estimated with 9 different error distributions on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Future returns. By utilizing the theory of realized variance to construct an appropriate ex post measure of variance from intra-day data it is shown that allowing for a leptokurtic error distribution leads to significant improvements in variance forecasts compared to using the normal distribution. This result holds for daily, weekly as well as monthly forecast horizons. It is also found that allowing for skewness and time variation in the higher moments of the distribution does not further improve forecasts. In Essay 2, by using 20 years of daily Standard and Poor 500 index returns, it is found that density forecasts are much improved by allowing for constant excess kurtosis but not improved by allowing for skewness. By allowing the kurtosis and skewness to be time varying the density forecasts are not further improved but on the contrary made slightly worse. In Essay 3 a new model incorporating conditional variance, skewness and kurtosis based on the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is proposed. The new model and two previously used NIG models are evaluated by their Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts on a long series of daily Standard and Poor’s 500 returns. The results show that only the new model produces satisfactory VaR forecasts for both 1% and 5% VaR Taken together the results of the thesis show that kurtosis appears not to exhibit predictable time variation, whereas there is found some predictability in the skewness. However, the dynamic properties of the skewness are not completely captured by any of the models.

New Evidence on the Properties of the Financial Statement Information Pricing Process

This study contributes to our knowledge of how information contained in financial statements is interpreted and priced by the stock market in two aspects. First, the empirical findings indicate that investors interpret some of the information contained in new financial statements in the context of the information of prior financial statements. Second, two central hypotheses offered in earlier literature to explain the significant connection between publicly available financial statement information and future abnormal returns, that the signals proxy for risk and that the information is priced with a delay, are evaluated utilizing a new methodology. It is found that the mentioned significant connection for some financial statement signals can be explained by that the signals proxy for risk and for other financial statement signals by that the information contained in the signals is priced with a delay.

Real Estate Investment and Uncertainty: Econometric Modelling using Finnish Data

The purpose of this paper is to test for the effect of uncertainty in a model of real estate investment in Finland during the hihhly cyclical period of 1975 to 1998. We use two alternative measures of uncertainty. The first measure is the volatility of stock market returns and the second measure is the heterogeneity in the answers of the quarterly business survey of the Confederation of Finnish Industry and Employers. The econometric analysis is based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model and the paper applies a 'general-to-specific' modelling approach. We find that the measure of heterogeneity is significant in the model, but the volatility of stock market returns is not. The empirical results give some evidence of an uncertainty-induced threshold slowing down real estate investment in Finland.

How Do Different Types of Investors React to New Financial Statement Information?

The study contributes to our understanding of the forces that drive the stock market by investigating how different types of investors react to new financial statement information. Using the extremely comprehensive official register of share holdings in Finland, we find that the majority of investors are more probable to sell (buy) stocks in a company after a positive (negative) earnings surprise, and show a bias towards buying after the disclosure of new financial statement information. Large investors, on the other hand, show behavior opposite to that of the majority of investors in the market. Further, foreign investors show behavior similar to that of domestic investors. We suggest investor overconfidence and asymmetric information as possible explanations for the documented behavior.

The Negative News Threshold - an Explanation for Negative Skewness in Stock Returns

A vast literature documents negative skewness and excess kurtosis in stock return distributions on several markets. We approach the issue of negative skewness from a different angle than in previous studies by suggesting a model, which we denote the “negative news threshold” hypothesis, that builds on asymmetrically distributed information and symmetric market responses. Our empirical tests reveal that returns for days when non-scheduled news are disclosed are the source of negative skewness in stock returns. This finding lends solid support to our model and suggests that negative skewness in stock returns is induced by asymmetries in the news disclosure policies of firm management.

Do Analysts Leak Information to Preferred Customers?

Inspired by the recent debate in the financial press, we set out to investigate if financial analysts warn their preferred customers of possible earnings forecast revisions. The issue is explored by monitoring investors’ trading behavior during the weeks prior to analyst earnings forecast revisions, using the unique official stock transactions data set from Finland. In summary, we do not find evidence of large investors systematically being warned of earnings forecast revisions. However, the results indicate that the very largest investors show trading behavior partly consistent with being informed of future earnings forecast revisions.

Overconfidence and investor size

Recent research documents that institutional or large investors act as antagonists to other investors by showing opposite behavior following disclosure of new information. Using an extremely comprehensive official transactions data set from Finland, we set out to explore the interrelation between investor size and behavior. More specifically, we test whether investor size is positively (negatively) correlated with investor reaction following positive (negative) news. We document robust evidence of that investor size affects investor behavior under new information, as larger investors on average react more positively (negatively) to good (bad) news than smaller investors. In the light of this study it seems increasingly feasible that several recent findings of heterogeneous investor behavior are functions of differences in overconfidence.

On the Importance of Mutual Fund Families in Emerging Markets

This study contributes to the mutual fund literature by looking at performance persistence on a fund family level, allowing for individual equity, bond and balanced funds to be included under single family umbrellas. The study is conducted on the emerging Finnish mutual fund market, an environment in which the importance of superior fund family teams is likely to be accentuated. Using both non–parametric and parametric tests we find robust evidence of performance persistence for the fund families. Persistence is particularly strong in the first half of the investigation period, which highlights the importance of fund families at early stages of market development.