A modell of socially optimal hydro reservoir usage - yelding socially optimal outcomes in nordic electricity markets

An extensive electricity transmission network facilitates electricity trading between Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Currently most of the area's power generation is traded at NordPool, where the trading volumes have steadily increased since the early 1990's, when the exchange was founded. The Nordic electricity is expected to follow the current trend and further integrate with the other European electricity markets. Hydro power is the source for roughly a half of the supply in the Nordic electricity market and most of the hydro is generated in Norway. The dominating role of hydro power distinguishes the Nordic electricity market from most of the other market places. Production of hydro power varies mainly due to hydro reservoirs and demand for electricity. Hydro reservoirs are affected by water inflows that differ each year. The hydro reservoirs explain remarkably the behaviour of the Nordic electricity markets. Therefore among others, Kauppi and Liski (2008) have developed a model that analyzes the behaviour of the markets using hydro reservoirs as explanatory factors. Their model includes, for example, welfare loss due to socially suboptimal hydro reservoir usage, socially optimal electricity price, hydro reservoir storage and thermal reservoir storage; that are referred as outcomes. However, the model does not explain the real market condition but rather an ideal situation. In the model the market is controlled by one agent, i.e. one agent controls all the power generation reserves; it is referred to as a socially optimal strategy. Article by Kauppi and Liski (2008) includes an assumption where an individual agent has a certain fraction of market power, e.g. 20 % or 30 %. In order to maintain the focus of this thesis, this part of their paper is omitted. The goal of this thesis is two-fold. Firstly we expand the results from the socially optimal strategy for years 2006-08, as the earlier study finishes in 2005. The second objective is to improve on the methods from the previous study. This thesis results several outcomes (SPOT-price and welfare loss, etc.) due to socially optimal actions. Welfare loss is interesting as it describes the inefficiency of the market. SPOT-price is an important output for the market participants as it often has an effect on end users' electricity bills. Another function is to modify and try to improve the model by means of using more accurate input data, e.g. by considering pollution trade rights effect on input data. After modifications to the model, new welfare losses are calculated and compared with the same results before the modifications. The hydro reservoir has the higher explanatory significance in the model followed by thermal power. In Nordic markets, thermal power reserves are mostly nuclear power and other thermal sources (coal, natural gas, oil, peat). It can be argued that hydro and thermal reservoirs determine electricity supply. Roughly speaking, the model takes into account electricity demand and supply, and several parameters related to them (water inflow, oil price, etc.), yielding finally the socially optimal outcomes. The author of this thesis is not aware of any similar model being tested before. There have been some other studies that are close to the Kauppi and Liski (2008) model, but those have a somewhat different focus. For example, a specific feature in the model is the focus on long-run capacity usage that differs from the previous studies on short-run market power. The closest study to the model is from California's wholesale electricity markets that, however, uses different methodology. Work is constructed as follows.

Storage and retrieval of individual genomes

A repetitive sequence collection is one where portions of a base sequence of length n are repeated many times with small variations, forming a collection of total length N. Examples of such collections are version control data and genome sequences of individuals, where the differences can be expressed by lists of basic edit operations. Flexible and efficient data analysis on a such typically huge collection is plausible using suffix trees. However, suffix tree occupies O(N log N) bits, which very soon inhibits in-memory analyses. Recent advances in full-text self-indexing reduce the space of suffix tree to O(N log σ) bits, where σ is the alphabet size. In practice, the space reduction is more than 10-fold, for example on suffix tree of Human Genome. However, this reduction factor remains constant when more sequences are added to the collection. We develop a new family of self-indexes suited for the repetitive sequence collection setting. Their expected space requirement depends only on the length n of the base sequence and the number s of variations in its repeated copies. That is, the space reduction factor is no longer constant, but depends on N / n. We believe the structures developed in this work will provide a fundamental basis for storage and retrieval of individual genomes as they become available due to rapid progress in the sequencing technologies.

Lyophilized disaccharides – the effect of water during storage

Nearly one fourth of new medicinal molecules are biopharmaceutical (protein, antibody or nucleic acid derivative) based. However, the administration of these compounds is not always that straightforward due to the fragile nature of aforementioned domains in GI-tract. In addition, these molecules often exhibit poor bioavailability when administered orally. As a result, parenteral administration is commonly preferred. In addition, shelf-life of these molecules in aqueous environments is poor, unless stored in low temperatures. Another approach is to bring these molecules to anhydrous form via lyophilization resulting in enhanced stability during storage. Proteins cannot most commonly be freeze dried by themselves so some kind of excipients are nearly always necessary. Disaccharides are commonly utilized excipients in freeze-dried formulations since they provide a rigid glassy matrix to maintain the native conformation of the protein domain. They also act as "sink"-agents, which basically mean that they can absorb some moisture from the environment and still help to protect the API itself to retain its activity and therefore offer a way to robust formulation. The aim of the present study was to investigate how four amorphous disaccharides (cellobiose, melibiose, sucrose and trehalose) behave when they are brought to different relative humidity levels. At first, solutions of each disaccharide were prepared, filled into scintillation vials and freeze dried. Initial information on how the moisture induced transformations take place, the lyophilized amorphous disaccharide cakes were placed in vacuum desiccators containing different relative humidity levels for defined period, after which selected analyzing methods were utilized to further examine the occurred transformations. Affinity to crystallization, water sorption of the disaccharides, the effect of moisture on glass transition and crystallization temperature were studied. In addition FT-IR microscopy was utilized to map the moisture distribution on a piece of lyophilized cake. Observations made during the experiments backed up the data mentioned in a previous study: melibiose and trehalose were shown to be superior over sucrose and cellobiose what comes to the ability to withstand elevated humidity and temperature, and to avoid crystallization with pharmaceutically relevant moisture contents. The difference was made evident with every utilized analyzing method. In addition, melibiose showed interesting anomalies during DVS runs, which were absent with other amorphous disaccharides. Particularly fascinating was the observation made with polarized light microscope, which revealed a possible small-scale crystallization that cannot be observed with XRPD. As a result, a suggestion can safely be made that a robust formulation is most likely obtained by utilizing either melibiose or trehalose as a stabilizing agent for biopharmaceutical freeze-dried formulations. On the other hand, more experiments should be conducted to obtain more accurate information on why these disaccharides have better tolerance for elevating humidities than others.