Determinants of outcome in critically ill patients

Assessment of the outcome of critical illness is complex. Severity scoring systems and organ dysfunction scores are traditional tools in mortality and morbidity prediction in intensive care. Their ability to explain risk of death is impressive for large cohorts of patients, but insufficient for an individual patient. Although events before intensive care unit (ICU) admission are prognostically important, the prediction models utilize data collected at and just after ICU admission. In addition, several biomarkers have been evaluated to predict mortality, but none has proven entirely useful in clinical practice. Therefore, new prognostic markers of critical illness are vital when evaluating the intensive care outcome. The aim of this dissertation was to investigate new measures and biological markers of critical illness and to evaluate their predictive value and association with mortality and disease severity. The impact of delay in emergency department (ED) on intensive care outcome, measured as hospital mortality and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at 6 months, was assessed in 1537 consecutive patients admitted to medical ICU. Two new biological markers were investigated in two separate patient populations: in 231 ICU patients and 255 patients with severe sepsis or septic shock. Cell-free plasma DNA is a surrogate marker of apoptosis. Its association with disease severity and mortality rate was evaluated in ICU patients. Next, the predictive value of plasma DNA regarding mortality and its association with the degree of organ dysfunction and disease severity was evaluated in severe sepsis or septic shock. Heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) is a potential regulator of apoptosis. Finally, HO-1 plasma concentrations and HO-1 gene polymorphisms and their association with outcome were evaluated in ICU patients. The length of ED stay was not associated with outcome of intensive care. The hospital mortality rate was significantly lower in patients admitted to the medical ICU from the ED than from the non-ED, and the HRQoL in the critically ill at 6 months was significantly lower than in the age- and sex-matched general population. In the ICU patient population, the maximum plasma DNA concentration measured during the first 96 hours in intensive care correlated significantly with disease severity and degree of organ failure and was independently associated with hospital mortality. In patients with severe sepsis or septic shock, the cell-free plasma DNA concentrations were significantly higher in ICU and hospital nonsurvivors than in survivors and showed a moderate discriminative power regarding ICU mortality. Plasma DNA was an independent predictor for ICU mortality, but not for hospital mortality. The degree of organ dysfunction correlated independently with plasma DNA concentration in severe sepsis and plasma HO-1 concentration in ICU patients. The HO-1 -413T/GT(L)/+99C haplotype was associated with HO-1 plasma levels and frequency of multiple organ dysfunction. Plasma DNA and HO-1 concentrations may support the assessment of outcome or organ failure development in critically ill patients, although their value is limited and requires further evaluation.