Modelling and Forecasting Property Rents and Returns (summary section only)

Recently, focus of real estate investment has expanded from the building-specific level to the aggregate portfolio level. The portfolio perspective requires investment analysis for real estate which is comparable with that of other asset classes, such as stocks and bonds. Thus, despite its distinctive features, such as heterogeneity, high unit value, illiquidity and the use of valuations to measure performance, real estate should not be considered in isolation. This means that techniques which are widely used for other assets classes can also be applied to real estate. An important part of investment strategies which support decisions on multi-asset portfolios is identifying the fundamentals of movements in property rents and returns, and predicting them on the basis of these fundamentals. The main objective of this thesis is to find the key drivers and the best methods for modelling and forecasting property rents and returns in markets which have experienced structural changes. The Finnish property market, which is a small European market with structural changes and limited property data, is used as a case study. The findings in the thesis show that is it possible to use modern econometric tools for modelling and forecasting property markets. The thesis consists of an introduction part and four essays. Essays 1 and 3 model Helsinki office rents and returns, and assess the suitability of alternative techniques for forecasting these series. Simple time series techniques are able to account for structural changes in the way markets operate, and thus provide the best forecasting tool. Theory-based econometric models, in particular error correction models, which are constrained by long-run information, are better for explaining past movements in rents and returns than for predicting their future movements. Essay 2 proceeds by examining the key drivers of rent movements for several property types in a number of Finnish property markets. The essay shows that commercial rents in local markets can be modelled using national macroeconomic variables and a panel approach. Finally, Essay 4 investigates whether forecasting models can be improved by accounting for asymmetric responses of office returns to the business cycle. The essay finds that the forecast performance of time series models can be improved by introducing asymmetries, and the improvement is sufficient to justify the extra computational time and effort associated with the application of these techniques.

Changing Lived Worlds of Contemporary Amazonian Native Young People : Manchineri Youths in the Reserve and the City, Brazil-Acre

This thesis discusses the contemporary construction of the lived worlds of indigenous Amazonian youths. Today’s native peoples are considerably affected by the processes of globalization and urbanization, which have led to new ways of relating to their cultural traditions. This work presents a case study of Manchineri youngsters aged between 14 and 24 years old living in Acre state in Brazilian Amazonia. The Arawak-speaking Manchineri number some 1,000 people; their legally demarcated reserve is situated next to the River Yaco. The research is based on ethnographic material collected in the Mamoadate reserve and in the state capital, Rio Branco. By comparing the youth in different physical and social environments (the reserve and the city), my attempt has been to search for the most typical elements maintained, altered and created in the current lived worlds of Manchineri youths. Fieldwork methods included interviews, participant observation, photographs, video recordings, and drawings. The material was analyzed within the multidisciplinary framework of the social and cultural construction of knowledge. The study applies the concepts of social field, symbolic capital, and habitus as they have been used by Pierre Bourdieu; perspective as developed recently in Amazonian ethnology; the sacred as a cultural category as understood in the study of religion; and individual and person as concepts central to anthropology and sociology. Additionally, the study can be contextualized within youth studies, Latin American studies, and urban studies. The results of the study show that the everyday lives of young Amazonian native people are formed by a complex mixture of ‘modernity’ and ‘tradition’, fragmentation, and transitions between different conceptual frameworks. Part II discusses the ethnographic material in depth and shows that indigenous adolescents act from a variety of social perspectives: the native youth’s own ethnic group, divided into sub-groups, especially into urban residents and those living in the reserve; ancestors, super-human agents and spirits; other indigenous groups and non-natives. Consequently, besides the traditional initiation ritual, we find various contemporary rites of passage to adulthood: state-education, learning traditional practices, shamanism, matrimony, and transitions between the reserve and urban areas. According to these results, new social roles, political organization, responsibilities, and in general the desire to be respected, require both ‘modern’ and ‘traditional’ abilities. In Part III, the study shows that the current power relations constituted by new social contacts, ethnic recognition, and cooperation with different institutions have resulted in the formation of new social fields: youth cultures, the ethnic group, shamanic practices, the ethnopolitical movement, and indigenous students. The capacity of young Amazonian Indians to act in contemporary social fields produces them as full persons. The study also argues that the elements of the lived worlds can be divided into these social fields. When focusing on these fields, it became evident that these comprise the strategies adopted by young Indians to break through social and cultural barriers.

"Miksi lehmät pitää tappaa?" : Etnografinen tutkimus 2000-luvun alun huumemarkkinoista Helsingissä

The present study focuses on the drug market in Helsinki in the early 2000s, mainly on the dealing in and use of amphetamines, cannabis and the pharmaceutical Subutex. The drug market is usually analysed into upper, middle and lower level markets. These levels are very different in terms of their operating practices, although there may be some mingling. The present study is mainly concerned with drug dealers and users in the lower and middle level markets. Operations also differ depending on whether the dealing involves just one drug or several. Dealing in and using Subutex is a very different business from dealing and using home grown cannabis, for instance: both the customers and the dealers are mostly quite different. The study material was mostly collected through ethnographical field work, including observations and interviews. Interviews with officials and minutes of pre-trial investigations concerning aggravated drug crimes are also included. The study discusses the roles of dealers on the various levels of the drug market in Helsinki and traces activities at various levels. Ethnographical methods are employed to observe day-to-day drug dealing and use and leisure pursuits in private homes and in public premises. The study takes note of the risks inherent in drug dealing and estimates what kind of drug dealers can last the longest on the market without the authorities intervening. At the same time, the study discusses how small groups on the middle and lower levels of the drug market avoid control measures undertaken by the authorities and how the authorities address these groups. Moreover, the study discusses what the drug market is like in prison from the perspective of a drug dealer sent to prison, what their everyday lives are like after release, and how much money dealers on various levels of the drug market make. The study demonstrates that drug dealing in Helsinki, whether we consider the very top or the very bottom of the pyramid, is a far from rational pursuit. The undertakings are not very systematic; they are more a reaction to intoxicant addiction( s) and other problems caused by other dealers, the dealers own actions and the actions of the police. The everyday lives of drug dealers are often chaos only alleviated by drug use in the company of buyers or alone. If a drug dealer uses drugs himself/herself, things become even more complicated and a vicious circle develops. At the same time, everyday life is certainly exciting, and a drug dealer often has a highly eventful if brief life. Drug dealing is a very masculine pursuit, and there is a sort of macho code governing it, although this does not nearly always work as it should. This macho code, typically for illegal activities, involves the threat of violence as a control measure. Hence the untranslatable slang expression Kill the cows : the Finnish word for calf has the slang meaning snitch or police informant . No more cows, no more calves. But informing on others to the authorities is a fact of life in the drug-dealing world. Contributing factors to being reported to the authorities are the dealer s own mistakes and the actions of other dealers and the police. A determined drug dealer will not be deterred from drug dealing by a prison sentence. However, following time in prison only few dealers manage to gain an income from drug dealing commensurate with its risks.