Towards the Use of Radar Winds in Numerical Weather Prediction

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models provide the basis for weather forecasting by simulating the evolution of the atmospheric state. A good forecast requires that the initial state of the atmosphere is known accurately, and that the NWP model is a realistic representation of the atmosphere. Data assimilation methods are used to produce initial conditions for NWP models. The NWP model background field, typically a short-range forecast, is updated with observations in a statistically optimal way. The objective in this thesis has been to develope methods in order to allow data assimilation of Doppler radar radial wind observations. The work has been carried out in the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) 3-dimensional variational data assimilation framework. Observation modelling is a key element in exploiting indirect observations of the model variables. In the radar radial wind observation modelling, the vertical model wind profile is interpolated to the observation location, and the projection of the model wind vector on the radar pulse path is calculated. The vertical broadening of the radar pulse volume, and the bending of the radar pulse path due to atmospheric conditions are taken into account. Radar radial wind observations are modelled within observation errors which consist of instrumental, modelling, and representativeness errors. Systematic and random modelling errors can be minimized by accurate observation modelling. The impact of the random part of the instrumental and representativeness errors can be decreased by calculating spatial averages from the raw observations. Model experiments indicate that the spatial averaging clearly improves the fit of the radial wind observations to the model in terms of observation minus model background (OmB) standard deviation. Monitoring the quality of the observations is an important aspect, especially when a new observation type is introduced into a data assimilation system. Calculating the bias for radial wind observations in a conventional way can result in zero even in case there are systematic differences in the wind speed and/or direction. A bias estimation method designed for this observation type is introduced in the thesis. Doppler radar radial wind observation modelling, together with the bias estimation method, enables the exploitation of the radial wind observations also for NWP model validation. The one-month model experiments performed with the HIRLAM model versions differing only in a surface stress parameterization detail indicate that the use of radar wind observations in NWP model validation is very beneficial.

Patient doses in ct, dental cone beam ct and projection radiography in Finland, with emphasis on paediatric patients

Diagnostic radiology represents the largest man-made contribution to population radiation doses in Europe. To be able to keep the diagnostic benefit versus radiation risk ratio as high as possible, it is important to understand the quantitative relationship between the patient radiation dose and the various factors which affect the dose, such as the scan parameters, scan mode, and patient size. Paediatric patients have a higher probability for late radiation effects, since longer life expectancy is combined with the higher radiation sensitivity of the developing organs. The experience with particular paediatric examinations may be very limited and paediatric acquisition protocols may not be optimised. The purpose of this thesis was to enhance and compare different dosimetric protocols, to promote the establishment of the paediatric diagnostic reference levels (DRLs), and to provide new data on patient doses for optimisation purposes in computed tomography (with new applications for dental imaging) and in paediatric radiography. Large variations in radiation exposure in paediatric skull, sinus, chest, pelvic and abdominal radiography examinations were discovered in patient dose surveys. There were variations between different hospitals and examination rooms, between different sized patients, and between imaging techniques; emphasising the need for harmonisation of the examination protocols. For computed tomography, a correction coefficient, which takes individual patient size into account in patient dosimetry, was created. The presented patient size correction method can be used for both adult and paediatric purposes. Dental cone beam CT scanners provided adequate image quality for dentomaxillofacial examinations while delivering considerably smaller effective doses to patient compared to the multi slice CT. However, large dose differences between cone beam CT scanners were not explained by differences in image quality, which indicated the lack of optimisation. For paediatric radiography, a graphical method was created for setting the diagnostic reference levels in chest examinations, and the DRLs were given as a function of patient projection thickness. Paediatric DRLs were also given for sinus radiography. The detailed information about the patient data, exposure parameters and procedures provided tools for reducing the patient doses in paediatric radiography. The mean tissue doses presented for paediatric radiography enabled future risk assessments to be done. The calculated effective doses can be used for comparing different diagnostic procedures, as well as for comparing the use of similar technologies and procedures in different hospitals and countries.

Integrative functional genomics analysis of sustained polyploidy phenotypes in breast cancer cells identifies an oncogenic profile for GINS2

Aneuploidy is among the most obvious differences between normal and cancer cells. However, mechanisms contributing to development and maintenance of aneuploid cell growth are diverse and incompletely understood. Functional genomics analyses have shown that aneuploidy in cancer cells is correlated with diffuse gene expression signatures and that aneuploidy can arise by a variety of mechanisms, including cytokinesis failures, DNA endoreplication and possibly through polyploid intermediate states. Here, we used a novel cell spot microarray technique to identify genes with a loss-of-function effect inducing polyploidy and/or allowing maintenance of polyploid cell growth of breast cancer cells. Integrative genomics profiling of candidate genes highlighted GINS2 as a potential oncogene frequently overexpressed in clinical breast cancers as well as in several other cancer types. Multivariate analysis indicated GINS2 to be an independent prognostic factor for breast cancer outcome (p = 0.001). Suppression of GINS2 expression effectively inhibited breast cancer cell growth and induced polyploidy. In addition, protein level detection of nuclear GINS2 accurately distinguished actively proliferating cancer cells suggesting potential use as an operational biomarker.

Population projection for Namibia 2011-2020 - With an estimation of the impact of HIV/AIDS

This study presents a population projection for Namibia for years 2011–2020. In many countries of sub-Saharan Africa, including Namibia, the population growth is still continuing even though the fertility rates have declined. However, many of these countries suffer from a large HIV epidemic that is slowing down the population growth. In Namibia, the epidemic has been severe. Therefore, it is important to assess the effect of HIV/AIDS on the population of Namibia in the future. Demographic research on Namibia has not been very extensive, and data on population is not widely available. According to the studies made, fertility has been shown to be generally declining and mortality has been significantly increasing due to AIDS. Previous population projections predict population growth for Namibia in the near future, yet HIV/AIDS is affecting the future population developments. For the projection constructed in this study, data on population is taken from the two most recent censuses, from 1991 and 2001. Data on HIV is available from HIV Sentinel Surveys 1992–2008, which test pregnant women for HIV in antenatal clinics. Additional data are collected from different sources and recent studies. The projection is made with software (EPP and Spectrum) specially designed for developing countries with scarce data. The projection includes two main scenarios which have different assumptions concerning the development of the HIV epidemic. In addition, two hypothetical scenarios are made: the first considering the case where HIV epidemic would never have existed and the second considering the case where HIV treatment would never have existed. The results indicate population growth for Namibia. Population in the 2001 census was 1.83 million and is projected to result in 2.38/2.39 million in 2020 in the first two scenarios. Without HIV, population would be 2.61 million and without treatment 2.30 million in 2020. Urban population is growing faster than rural. Even though AIDS is increasing mortality, the past high fertility rates still keep young adult age groups quite large. The HIV epidemic shows to be slowing down, but it is still increasing the mortality of the working-aged population. The initiation of HIV treatment in 2004 in the public sector seems to have had an effect on many projected indicators, diminishing the impact of HIV on the population. For example, the rise of mortality is slowing down.