21 resultados para Probit estimations
em Helda - Digital Repository of University of Helsinki
Resumo:
Taustaa Kehityksellinen dysleksia (lukivaikeus) on erityinen lukemaan oppimisen vaikeus, johon liittyy usein myös vaikeuksia kirjoittamaan oppimisessa. Lukivaikeuden oletetaan useissa tapauksissa johtuvan vaikeudesta käsitellä kielen äännerakenteita (fonologinen prosessointi). Tämä poikkeavuus voi olla joko lukivaikeuden perimmäinen syy tai vaihtoehtoisesti ongelmat äänteiden käsittelyssä voivat heijastaa jotain vielä perustavamman tason vaikeutta. Eräs tällainen ehdotettu perustavan tasoin syy on poikkeavuus aistien toiminnoissa, erityisesti aistien aikatarkkuudessa. Aikatarkkuudella tarkoitetaan kykyä ja rajoja siinä, kuinka nopeasti esitettyä aistitiedon virtaa henkilö kykenee vastaanottamaan ja käsittelemään. Monet arjen toiminnot lukemisen rinnalla edellyttävät aistien erittäin tarkkaa ajallista erottelukykyä (esimerkiksi kuulo puheen ymmärtämisessä, tunto pintamateriaalin tunnistamisessa). Aikatarkkuusvaikeuksien esiintyvyyttä lukivaikeudessa on tutkittu aiemminkin, mutta yksimielisyyteen ei ole päästy siitä, onko kaikilla lukivaikeuksisilla näitä ongelmia tai mihin aisteihin vaikeudet mahdollisesti rajoittuvat. Myöskään ei tiedetä, havaitaanko aikatarkkuuden ongelmia kaiken ikäisillä lukivaikeuksisilla vai vaihteleeko mahdollinen ongelmien kuva iän mukana. Lisäksi on epäselvää, kuinka aikatarkkuuden ongelmat itseasiassa ovat yhteydessä kielen käsittelyn ja varsinaisen lukemisen vaikeuksiin. Tutkimussarjan aihe Tässä tutkimussarjassa aikatarkkuutta tutkittiin kolmessa yksittäisessä aistissa, joita olivat tunto, näkö ja kuulo, sekä kolmessa aistien välisessä yhdistelmässä, joita olivat audiotaktiilinen (kuulo-tunto), visuotaktiilinen (näkö-tunto) ja audiovisuaalinen (näkö-kuulo). Aikatarkkuutta arvioitiin kahdella eri menetelmällä, jotta saataisiin lisää tietoa siitä, missä tietyssä aikatarkkuuden osa-alueessa lukivaikeuksisilla mahdollisesti on vaikeuksia. Ensimmäisessä tehtävässä tutkittavan tuli arvioida, ovatko esitetyt ei-kielelliset ärsykkeet samanaikaisia vai eriaikaisia. Toisessa tehtävässä koehenkilön tuli arvioida esitettyjen ei-kielellisten ärsykkeiden esitysjärjestys. Molemmissa tehtävissä määriteltiin millisekuntitasolla (sekunnin tuhannesosa) se esitysnopeus, jolla koehenkilö kykeni arvioimaan ärsykkeiden ajalliset suhteet oikein. Englanninkielinen demonstraatio aikatarkkuustehtävistä löytyy internetistä (http://www.helsinki.fi/hum/ylpsy/neuropsy). Itse aikatarkkuustehtävien lisäksi tutkimussarjassa arvioitiin tutkimushenkilöiden päättelykykyä, kielellisiä toimintoja ja lukemista. Tutkimushenkilöt Tutkimuksiin osallistui 53 lukivaikeuksista ja 66 sujuvaa lukijaa, jotka oli jaettu kolmeen pääikäryhmään: lapset (8-12 vuotta), nuoret aikuiset (20-36 vuotta) ja ikääntyneemmät aikuiset (20-59 vuotta). Ikääntyneempien aikuisten ryhmä oli edelleen jaettu ikävuosikymmenluokkiin, mikä mahdollisti sen tutkimisen, vaikuttaako lisääntyvä aikuisikä lukivaikeuksisten aikatarkkuuteen (20-29, 30-39, 40-49 ja 50-59 -vuotiaat). Tutkimussarjan tulokset Aikatarkkuuden ongelmat lukivaikeuksisilla olivat yleistyneitä yli iän, aistien ja tehtävien Lukivaikeuksiset kaikissa pääikäryhmissä (lapset, nuoret aikuiset, ikääntyneemmän aikuiset) tarvitsivat samanikäisiä sujuvia lukijoita hitaamman esitystahdin, jotta he kykenivät arvioimaan ei-kielellisten ärsykkeiden ajallisen esitystavan oikein. Tämä aikatarkkuuden ongelma havaittiin lukivaikeuksisilla kaikissa aisteissa (tunto, kuulo, näkö) ja niiden yhdistelmissä (audiotaktiilinen, visuotaktiilinen, audiovisuaalinen). Lukivaikeuksisten aikatarkkuusongelmat ilmenivät edelleen molemmissa tehtävätyypeissä (samanaikaisuuden ja järjestyksen arvioinnissa). Aikatarkkuus ja sen ongelmat olivat yhteydessä äänteiden käsittelyyn Aikatarkkuus oli yhteydessä äänteiden käsittelykykyyn (fonologiseen prosessointiin), niin lapsilla kuin aikuisillakin, kaikissa aisteissa, niiden yhdistelmissä ja tehtävätyypeissä. Yhteys ei-kielellisen aikatarkkuuden ja kielellisten toimintojen välillä oli kuitenkin selkeämpi lukivaikeuksisilla kuin sujuvilla lukijoilla. Tämä tarkoittaa, että etenkin lukivaikeuksisilla ryhmätason huono aikatarkkuus oli yhteydessä huonoon äänteiden käsittelyyn (fonologiseen prosessointiin) ja päinvastoin. Suoraa yhteyttä lukemisen ja aikatarkkuuden välillä ei kuitenkaan havaittu. Lisääntyvä aikuisikä heikensi lukivaikeuksisten aikatarkkuutta suhteettoman paljon Tiedonkäsittelyn nopeuden on toistuvasti osoitettu hidastuvan normaalissa ikääntymisessä. Lisääntyvä aikuisikä (20-59 -vuotiailla) heikensikin sekä sujuvien että lukivaikeuksisten aikatarkkuutta. Toisin sanoen, mitä iäkkäämmästä aikuisesta oli kysymys, sitä hitaammin hänelle tuli esittää ärsykkeet, jotta hän kykeni arvioimaan niiden ajalliset suhteet oikein. Tämä ikään liittyvä tavanomainen hidastuminen oli kuitenkin yllättäen suhteettoman nopeaa lukivaikeuksisilla. Toisin sanoen, jo nuorilla lukivaikeuksisilla havaittu aikatarkkuuden vaikeus (ryhmäero verrattuna sujuviin lukijoihin) ei pysynyt saman suuruisena, vaan ryhmien ero kasvoi aikuisiän lisääntyessä. Tulosten merkitys Lukivaikeuden osoitettiin tässä tutkimussarjassa olevan yhteydessä yleistyneeseen vaikeuteen käsitellä ajassa nopeasti muuttuvaa ei-kielellistä aistitietoa (yli aistien ja niiden yhdistelmien, tehtävätyyppien, tutkittavien iän). Tämä osoittaa, että lukivaikeus ei ole ongelma, joka rajoittuu vain kielellisen materiaalin käsittelyn vaikeuksiin (äänteiden käsittely, lukeminen, kirjoittaminen). Nyt havaitut vaikeudet eivät myöskään rajoittuneet vain niihin aisteihin, jotka selkeimmin liittyvät lukemiseen (näkö) ja puhuttuun kieleen (kuulo); Ongelmia esiintyi myös muissa aisteissa (tunto). Lukivaikeuksisten lukijoiden ryhmätasolla havaittu aikatarkkuuden ongelma ei kuitenkaan heijastunut yksilötasolle; Jokainen lukivaikeuksinen ei ollut huono aikatarkkuustehtävissä. Näin ollen ei siis voida väittää, että kaikkien lukivaikeuksisten äänteiden käsittelyn tai lukemaan oppimisen vaikeudet voisivat selittyä aistien toimintojen poikkeavuudella. Aikatarkkuuden ongelmat eivät olleet yhteydessä varsinaiseen lukemiseen. Sekä lukivaikeuksisilla lapsilla että aikuisilla todettiin kuitenkin selkeä yhteys aikatarkkuuden ongelmien ja lukemaan oppimisen keskeisen ennakkoehdon, fonologisen prosessoinnin, välillä. Saattaa siis olla, että synnynnäinen aistien toimintojen poikkeavuus vaikuttaa yksilön suoriutumiseen jo ennen varsinaista lukemaan oppimista, kun ne taidot kehittyvät (fonologinen prosessointi), joille myöhempi lukemaan oppiminen perustuu. Ikäännyttäessä havaittu lukivaikeuksisten suhteettoman nopea aikatarkkuuden heikkeneminen osoittaa, että lukivaikeus ei voi olla ongelma, joka koskee vain lapsuusikää, tai vaikeus, joka johtuu vain kehityksen viivästymästä joka kurottaisiin iän myötä umpeen. Tulosten ymmärtämiseksi onkin muistettava kaksi seikkaa. Lukivaikeus on ensinnäkin yhdistetty synnynnäisiin, pieniin, poikkeavuuksiin aivojen rakenteissa ja toiminnoissa. Toisaalta tavanomaiseen ikääntymiseen liittyy se, että aivot kykenevät yhä huonommin korjaamaan ja kiertämään (kompensoimaan) pieniä vaurioita. Tämän perusteella tutkimussarjan tuloksista voidaan päätellä, että lukivaikeuksisten jo synnynnäisesti heikentyneet aivojen kompensointimahdollisuudet eivät ole yhtä tehokkaita puskuroimaan ikääntymisen tavanomaisia vaikutuksia kuin sujuvilla lukijoilla. Yllättävää kuitenkin on, että tämä korostunut heikkeneminen havaittiin jo suhteellisen nuorilla, työikäisillä, lukivaikeuksisilla, ennen 60 ikävuotta. Samanlaista ikäännyttäessä korostuvaa vaikeutta ei lukivaikeuksilla kuitenkaan havaittu päättelyssä, kielellisissä toiminnoissa tai itse lukemisessa. Vaikuttaakin siis siltä, että ne toiminnot, joita on harjaannutettu aktiivisesti, eivät heikkene kasvavan aikuisiän myötä yhtä suhteettomasti. Alkuperäiset artikkelit Laasonen M, Tomma-Halme J, Lahti-Nuuttila P, Service E, and Virsu V (2000) Rate of information segregation in developmentally dyslexic children, Brain and Language, 75(1), 66-81. Laasonen M, Service E, and Virsu V (2001) Temporal order and processing acuity of visual, auditory, and tactile perception in developmentally dyslexic young adults, Cognitive, Affective, and Behavioral Neuroscience, 1(4), 394-410. Laasonen M, Service E, and Virsu V (2002) Crossmodal temporal order and processing acuity in developmentally dyslexic young adults, Brain and Language, 80(3), 340-354. Laasonen M, Lahti-Nuuttila P, and Virsu V (2002) Developmentally impaired processing speed decreases more than normally with age, NeuroReport, 13(9), 1111-1113.
Resumo:
Germline mutations in fumarate hydratase (FH) cause hereditary leiomyomatosis and renal cell cancer (HLRCC). FH is a nuclear encoded enzyme which functions in the Krebs tricarboxylic acid cycle, and homozygous mutation in FH lead to severe developmental defects. Both uterine and cutaneous leiomyomas are components of the HLRCC phenotype. Most of these tumours show loss of the wild-type allele and, also, the mutations reduce FH enzyme activity, which indicate that FH is a tumour suppressor gene. The renal cell cancers associated with HLRCC are of rare papillary type 2 histology. Other genes involved in the Krebs cycle, which are also implicated in neoplasia are 3 of the 4 subunits encoding succinate dehydrogenase (SDH); mutations in SHDB, SDHC, and SDHD predispose to paraganglioma and phaeochromocytoma. Although uterine leiomyomas (or fibroids) are very common, the estimations of affected women ranging from 25% to 77%, not much is known about their genetic background. Cytogenetic studies have revealed that rearrangements involving chromosomes 6, 7, 12 and 14 are most commonly seen in fibroids. Deletions on the long arm of chromosome 7 have been reported to be involved in about 17 to 34 % of leiomyomas and the small commonly deleted region on 7q22 suggests that there might be an underlying tumour suppressor gene in that region. The purpose of this study was to investigate the genetic mechanisms behind the development of tumours associated with HLRCC, both renal cell cancer and uterine fibroids. Firstly, a database search at the Finnish cancer registry was conducted in order to identify new families with early-onset RCC and to test if the family history was compatible with HLRCC. Secondly, sporadic uterine fibroids were tested for deletions on 7q in order to define the minimal deleted 7q-region, followed by mutation analysis of the candidate genes. Thirdly, oligonucleotide chips were utilised to study the global gene expression profiles of uterine fibroids in order to test whether 7q-deletions and FH mutations significantly affected fibroid biology. In the screen for early-onset RCC, 214 families were identified. Subsequently, the pedigrees were constructed and clinical data obtained. One of the index cases (RCC at the age of 28) had a mother who had been diagnosed with a heart tumour, which in further investigation turned out to be a paraganglioma. This lead to an alternative hypothesis that SDH, instead of FH, could be involved. SDHA, SDHB, SDHC and SDHD were sequenced from these individuals; a germline SDHB R27X mutation was detected with loss of the wild-type allele in both tumours. These results suggest that germline mutations in the SDHB gene predispose to early-onset RCC establishing a novel form of hereditary RCC. This has immediate clinical implications in the surveillance of patients suffering from early-onset RCC and phaeochromocytoma/paraganglioma. For the studies on sporadic uterine fibroids, a set of 166 fibroids from 51 individuals were collected. The 7q LOH mapping defined a commonly deleted region of about 3.2 mega bases in 11 of the 166 tumours. The deletion was consistent with previously reported allelotyping studies of leiomyomas and it therefore suggested the presence of a tumour suppressor gene in the deleted region. Furthermore, the high-resolution aCGH-chip analysis refined the deleted region to only 2.79Mb. When combined with previous data, the commonly deleted region was only 2.3Mb. The mutation screening of the known genes within the commonly deleted region did not reveal pathogenic mutations, however. The expression microarray analysis revealed that FH-deficient fibroids, both sporadic and familial, had their distinct gene expression profile as they formed their own group in the unsupervised clustering. On the other hand, the presence or absence of 7q-deletions did not significantly alter the global gene expression pattern of fibroids, suggesting that these two groups do not have different biological backgrounds. Multiple differentially expressed genes were identified between FH wild-type and FH-mutant fibroids, and the most significant increase was seen in the expression of carbohydrate metabolism-related and hypoxia inducible factor (HIF) target genes.
Resumo:
This dissertation examines the short- and long-run impacts of timber prices and other factors affecting NIPF owners' timber harvesting and timber stocking decisions. The utility-based Faustmann model provides testable hypotheses of the exogenous variables retained in the timber supply analysis. The timber stock function, derived from a two-period biomass harvesting model, is estimated using a two-step GMM estimator based on balanced panel data from 1983 to 1991. Timber supply functions are estimated using a Tobit model adjusted for heteroscedasticity and nonnormality of errors based on panel data from 1994 to 1998. Results show that if specification analysis of the Tobit model is ignored, inconsistency and biasedness can have a marked effect on parameter estimates. The empirical results show that owner's age is the single most important factor determining timber stock; timber price is the single most important factor in harvesting decision. The results of the timber supply estimations can be interpreted using utility-based Faustmann model of a forest owner who values a growing timber in situ.
Resumo:
In the past decade, the Finnish agricultural sector has undergone rapid structural changes. The number of farms has decreased and the average farm size has increased when the number of farms transferred to new entrants has decreased. Part of the structural change in agriculture is manifested in early retirement programmes. In studying farmers exit behaviour in different countries, institutional differences, incentive programmes and constraints are found to matter. In Finland, farmers early retirement programmes were first introduced in 1974 and, during the last ten years, they have been carried out within the European Union framework for these programmes. The early retirement benefits are farmer specific and de-pend on the level of pension insurance the farmer has paid over his active farming years. In order to predict the future development of the agricultural sector, farmers have been frequently asked about their future plans and their plans for succession. However, the plans the farmers made for succession have been found to be time inconsistent. This study estimates the value of farmers stated succession plans in predicting revealed succession decisions. A stated succession plan exists when a farmer answers in a survey questionnaire that the farm is going to be transferred to a new entrant within a five-year period. The succession is revealed when the farm is transferred to a suc-cessor. Stated and revealed behaviour was estimated as a recursive Binomial Probit Model, which accounts for the censoring of the decision variables and controls for a potential correlation between the two equations. The results suggest that the succession plans, as stated by elderly farmers in the questionnaires, do not provide information that is significant and valuable in predicting true, com-pleted successions. Therefore, farmer exit should be analysed based on observed behaviour rather than on stated plans and intentions. As farm retirement plays a crucial role in determining the characteristics of structural change in agriculture, it is important to establish the factors which determine an exit from farming among eld-erly farmers and how off-farm income and income losses affect their exit choices. In this study, the observed choice of pension scheme by elderly farmers was analysed by a bivariate probit model. Despite some variations in significance and the effects of each factor, the ages of the farmer and spouse, the age and number of potential successors, farm size, income loss when retiring and the location of the farm together with the production line were found to be the most important determi-nants of early retirement and the transfer or closure of farms. Recently, the labour status of the spouse has been found to contribute significantly to individual retirement decisions. In this study, the effect of spousal retirement and economic incentives related to the timing of a farming couple s early retirement decision were analysed with a duration model. The results suggest that an expected pension in particular advances farm transfers. It was found that on farms operated by a couple, both early retirement and farm succession took place more often than on farms operated by a single person. However, the existence of a spouse delayed the timing of early retirement. Farming couples were found to co-ordinate their early retirement decisions when they both exit through agricultural retirement programmes, but such a co-ordination did not exist when one of the spouses retired under other pension schemes. Besides changes in the agricultural structure, the share and amount of off-farm income of a farm family s total income has also increased. In the study, the effect of off-farm income on farmers retirement decisions, in addition to other financial factors, was analysed. The unknown parameters were first estimated by a switching-type multivariate probit model and then by the simulated maxi-mum likelihood (SML) method, controlling for farmer specific fixed effects and serial correlation of the errors. The results suggest that elderly farmers off-farm income is a significant determinant in a farmer s choice to exit and close down the farm. However, off-farm income only has a short term effect on structural changes in agriculture since it does not significantly contribute to the timing of farm successions.
Resumo:
Multi- and intralake datasets of fossil midge assemblages in surface sediments of small shallow lakes in Finland were studied to determine the most important environmental factors explaining trends in midge distribution and abundance. The aim was to develop palaeoenvironmental calibration models for the most important environmental variables for the purpose of reconstructing past environmental conditions. The developed models were applied to three high-resolution fossil midge stratigraphies from southern and eastern Finland to interpret environmental variability over the past 2000 years, with special focus on the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and recent anthropogenic changes. The midge-based results were compared with physical properties of the sediment, historical evidence and environmental reconstructions based on diatoms (Bacillariophyta), cladocerans (Crustacea: Cladocera) and tree rings. The results showed that the most important environmental factor controlling midge distribution and abundance along a latitudinal gradient in Finland was the mean July air temperature (TJul). However, when the dataset was environmentally screened to include only pristine lakes, water depth at the sampling site became more important. Furthermore, when the dataset was geographically scaled to southern Finland, hypolimnetic oxygen conditions became the dominant environmental factor. The results from an intralake dataset from eastern Finland showed that the most important environmental factors controlling midge distribution within a lake basin were river contribution, water depth and submerged vegetation patterns. In addition, the results of the intralake dataset showed that the fossil midge assemblages represent fauna that lived in close proximity to the sampling sites, thus enabling the exploration of within-lake gradients in midge assemblages. Importantly, this within-lake heterogeneity in midge assemblages may have effects on midge-based temperature estimations, because samples taken from the deepest point of a lake basin may infer considerably colder temperatures than expected, as shown by the present test results. Therefore, it is suggested here that the samples in fossil midge studies involving shallow boreal lakes should be taken from the sublittoral, where the assemblages are most representative of the whole lake fauna. Transfer functions between midge assemblages and the environmental forcing factors that were significantly related with the assemblages, including mean air TJul, water depth, hypolimnetic oxygen, stream flow and distance to littoral vegetation, were developed using weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS) techniques, which outperformed all the other tested numerical approaches. Application of the models in downcore studies showed mostly consistent trends. Based on the present results, which agreed with previous studies and historical evidence, the Medieval Climate Anomaly between ca. 800 and 1300 AD in eastern Finland was characterized by warm temperature conditions and dry summers, but probably humid winters. The Little Ice Age (LIA) prevailed in southern Finland from ca. 1550 to 1850 AD, with the coldest conditions occurring at ca. 1700 AD, whereas in eastern Finland the cold conditions prevailed over a longer time period, from ca. 1300 until 1900 AD. The recent climatic warming was clearly represented in all of the temperature reconstructions. In the terms of long-term climatology, the present results provide support for the concept that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index has a positive correlation with winter precipitation and annual temperature and a negative correlation with summer precipitation in eastern Finland. In general, the results indicate a relatively warm climate with dry summers but snowy winters during the MCA and a cool climate with rainy summers and dry winters during the LIA. The results of the present reconstructions and the forthcoming applications of the models can be used in assessments of long-term environmental dynamics to refine the understanding of past environmental reference conditions and natural variability required by environmental scientists, ecologists and policy makers to make decisions concerning the presently occurring global, regional and local changes. The developed midge-based models for temperature, hypolimnetic oxygen, water depth, littoral vegetation shift and stream flow, presented in this thesis, are open for scientific use on request.
Resumo:
A wide range of models used in agriculture, ecology, carbon cycling, climate and other related studies require information on the amount of leaf material present in a given environment to correctly represent radiation, heat, momentum, water, and various gas exchanges with the overlying atmosphere or the underlying soil. Leaf area index (LAI) thus often features as a critical land surface variable in parameterisations of global and regional climate models, e.g., radiation uptake, precipitation interception, energy conversion, gas exchange and momentum, as all areas are substantially determined by the vegetation surface. Optical wavelengths of remote sensing are the common electromagnetic regions used for LAI estimations and generally for vegetation studies. The main purpose of this dissertation was to enhance the determination of LAI using close-range remote sensing (hemispherical photography), airborne remote sensing (high resolution colour and colour infrared imagery), and satellite remote sensing (high resolution SPOT 5 HRG imagery) optical observations. The commonly used light extinction models are applied at all levels of optical observations. For the sake of comparative analysis, LAI was further determined using statistical relationships between spectral vegetation index (SVI) and ground based LAI. The study areas of this dissertation focus on two regions, one located in Taita Hills, South-East Kenya characterised by tropical cloud forest and exotic plantations, and the other in Gatineau Park, Southern Quebec, Canada dominated by temperate hardwood forest. The sampling procedure of sky map of gap fraction and size from hemispherical photographs was proven to be one of the most crucial steps in the accurate determination of LAI. LAI and clumping index estimates were significantly affected by the variation of the size of sky segments for given zenith angle ranges. On sloping ground, gap fraction and size distributions present strong upslope/downslope asymmetry of foliage elements, and thus the correction and the sensitivity analysis for both LAI and clumping index computations were demonstrated. Several SVIs can be used for LAI mapping using empirical regression analysis provided that the sensitivities of SVIs at varying ranges of LAI are large enough. Large scale LAI inversion algorithms were demonstrated and were proven to be a considerably efficient alternative approach for LAI mapping. LAI can be estimated nonparametrically from the information contained solely in the remotely sensed dataset given that the upper-end (saturated SVI) value is accurately determined. However, further study is still required to devise a methodology as well as instrumentation to retrieve on-ground green leaf area index . Subsequently, the large scale LAI inversion algorithms presented in this work can be precisely validated. Finally, based on literature review and this dissertation, potential future research prospects and directions were recommended.
Resumo:
This thesis presents novel modelling applications for environmental geospatial data using remote sensing, GIS and statistical modelling techniques. The studied themes can be classified into four main themes: (i) to develop advanced geospatial databases. Paper (I) demonstrates the creation of a geospatial database for the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Åland Islands, south-western Finland; (ii) to analyse species diversity and distribution using GIS techniques. Paper (II) presents a diversity and geographical distribution analysis for Scopulini moths at a world-wide scale; (iii) to study spatiotemporal forest cover change. Paper (III) presents a study of exotic and indigenous tree cover change detection in Taita Hills Kenya using airborne imagery and GIS analysis techniques; (iv) to explore predictive modelling techniques using geospatial data. In Paper (IV) human population occurrence and abundance in the Taita Hills highlands was predicted using the generalized additive modelling (GAM) technique. Paper (V) presents techniques to enhance fire prediction and burned area estimation at a regional scale in East Caprivi Namibia. Paper (VI) compares eight state-of-the-art predictive modelling methods to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping in East Caprivi Namibia. The results in Paper (I) showed that geospatial data can be managed effectively using advanced relational database management systems. Metapopulation data for Melitaea cinxia butterfly was successfully combined with GPS-delimited habitat patch information and climatic data. Using the geospatial database, spatial analyses were successfully conducted at habitat patch level or at more coarse analysis scales. Moreover, this study showed it appears evident that at a large-scale spatially correlated weather conditions are one of the primary causes of spatially correlated changes in Melitaea cinxia population sizes. In Paper (II) spatiotemporal characteristics of Socupulini moths description, diversity and distribution were analysed at a world-wide scale and for the first time GIS techniques were used for Scopulini moth geographical distribution analysis. This study revealed that Scopulini moths have a cosmopolitan distribution. The majority of the species have been described from the low latitudes, sub-Saharan Africa being the hot spot of species diversity. However, the taxonomical effort has been uneven among biogeographical regions. Paper III showed that forest cover change can be analysed in great detail using modern airborne imagery techniques and historical aerial photographs. However, when spatiotemporal forest cover change is studied care has to be taken in co-registration and image interpretation when historical black and white aerial photography is used. In Paper (IV) human population distribution and abundance could be modelled with fairly good results using geospatial predictors and non-Gaussian predictive modelling techniques. Moreover, land cover layer is not necessary needed as a predictor because first and second-order image texture measurements derived from satellite imagery had more power to explain the variation in dwelling unit occurrence and abundance. Paper V showed that generalized linear model (GLM) is a suitable technique for fire occurrence prediction and for burned area estimation. GLM based burned area estimations were found to be more superior than the existing MODIS burned area product (MCD45A1). However, spatial autocorrelation of fires has to be taken into account when using the GLM technique for fire occurrence prediction. Paper VI showed that novel statistical predictive modelling techniques can be used to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping at a regional scale. However, some noticeable variation between different predictive modelling techniques for fire occurrence prediction and burned area estimation existed.
Resumo:
Cancer diseases are considered to be relatively common among the Finnish population, every fourth Finn has been affected by cancer in their lifetime. Around 24,000 new cases of cancer are diagnosed each year in Finland. According to the estimations, about half of all diseased will recover. This research examines cancer patients experiences and needs for mental and spiritual support. This paper answers questions what kind of support cancer patients were given after the diagnosis and how did they felt about it. My research was conducted by thematic interviews (N=7) with cancer patients and letters (N=13). To analyze I used narrative holistic-content analysis and holistic analysis of form. Narrative holistic-content analysis consists of reading the material and writing down common points, themes and deflections. By using holistic analysis of form, I observed changes and turning points in one s story of life. Then I could graphically show the emotional changes in the cancer patients life. By rereading the material, examining and comparing it, I was able to build different categories. After defining these categories (Longing, Supported, Individualists, Believers) I reread the interviews in terms of which category it belonged to. I chose one story from each category to represent the whole group. This so-called central story was complemented by other stories from the same group. Analysis enables to define a type story from each group, they were examples of the various ways of reacting about support that they were giving or not having the support that were needed. The stories reflect the participants feelings about support they were given but some cases feeling rejected.
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Understanding the overwhelming diversity of life calls for complex organisational schemes. The field of systematics may thus be seen as the cornerstone of evolutionary biology. In the last few decades, systematics has been rejuvenated through the introduction of molecular methods such as DNA barcoding and multi-gene phylogenetic approaches. These methods may shed new light on established taxonomic ideas and problems. For example, the classification of ants has aroused much debate due to reinterpretation of morphological characters or contradictions between molecular data and morphology. Only in the last few years a consensus was reached regarding the phylogeny of ant subfamilies. However, the situation remains deplorable for lower taxonomic ranks such as subfamilies, tribes and genera. This thesis describes the systematics and evolution of the Holarctic ant genus Myrmica and the tribe to which it belongs, Myrmicini. Using barcoding, molecular-phylogenetic data and divergence time estimations, it addresses questions regarding the taxonomy, morphology and biogeography of this group. Furthermore, the interrelationships between socially parasitic Myrmica species and their hosts (other species in the genus) were inferred. The phylogeny suggests that social parasitism evolved several times in Myrmica. Finally, this thesis investigated whether coevolution shaped the phylogeny of socially parasitic Maculinea butterflies that live inside Myrmica colonies. No evidence was found for coevolution.
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Composting refers to aerobic degradation of organic material and is one of the main waste treatment methods used in Finland for treating separated organic waste. The composting process allows converting organic waste to a humus-like end product which can be used to increase the organic matter in agricultural soils, in gardening, or in landscaping. Microbes play a key role as degraders during the composting-process, and the microbiology of composting has been studied for decades, but there are still open questions regarding the microbiota in industrial composting processes. It is known that with the traditional, culturing-based methods only a small fraction, below 1%, of the species in a sample is normally detected. In recent years an immense diversity of bacteria, fungi and archaea has been found to occupy many different environments. Therefore the methods of characterising microbes constantly need to be developed further. In this thesis the presence of fungi and bacteria in full-scale and pilot-scale composting processes was characterised with cloning and sequencing. Several clone libraries were constructed and altogether nearly 6000 clones were sequenced. The microbial communities detected in this study were found to differ from the compost microbes observed in previous research with cultivation based methods or with molecular methods from processes of smaller scale, although there were similarities as well. The bacterial diversity was high. Based on the non-parametric coverage estimations, the number of bacterial operational taxonomic units (OTU) in certain stages of composting was over 500. Sequences similar to Lactobacillus and Acetobacteria were frequently detected in the early stages of drum composting. In tunnel stages of composting the bacterial community comprised of Bacillus, Thermoactinomyces, Actinobacteria and Lactobacillus. The fungal diversity was found to be high and phylotypes similar to yeasts were abundantly found in the full-scale drum and tunnel processes. In addition to phylotypes similar to Candida, Pichia and Geotrichum moulds from genus Thermomyces and Penicillium were observed in tunnel stages of composting. Zygomycetes were detected in the pilot-scale composting processes and in the compost piles. In some of the samples there were a few abundant phylotypes present in the clone libraries that masked the rare ones. The rare phylotypes were of interest and a method for collecting them from clone libraries for sequencing was developed. With negative selection of the abundant phylotyps the rare ones were picked from the clone libraries. Thus 41% of the clones in the studied clone libraries were sequenced. Since microbes play a central role in composting and in many other biotechnological processes, rapid methods for characterization of microbial diversity would be of value, both scientifically and commercially. Current methods, however, lack sensitivity and specificity and are therefore under development. Microarrays have been used in microbial ecology for a decade to study the presence or absence of certain microbes of interest in a multiplex manner. The sequence database collected in this thesis was used as basis for probe design and microarray development. The enzyme assisted detection method, ligation-detection-reaction (LDR) based microarray, was adapted for species-level detection of microbes characteristic of each stage of the composting process. With the use of a specially designed control probe it was established that a species specific probe can detect target DNA representing as little as 0.04% of total DNA in a sample. The developed microarray can be used to monitor composting processes or the hygienisation of the compost end product. A large compost microbe sequence dataset was collected and analysed in this thesis. The results provide valuable information on microbial community composition during industrial scale composting processes. The microarray method was developed based on the sequence database collected in this study. The method can be utilised in following the fate of interesting microbes during composting process in an extremely sensitive and specific manner. The platform for the microarray is universal and the method can easily be adapted for studying microbes from environments other than compost.
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Phytoplankton ecology and productivity is one of the main branches of contemporary oceanographic research. Research groups in this branch have increasingly started to utilise bio-optical applications. My main research objective was to critically investigate the advantages and deficiencies of the fast repetition rate (FRR) fluorometry for studies of productivity of phytoplankton, and the responses of phytoplankton towards varying environmental stress. Second, I aimed to clarify the applicability of the FRR system to the optical environment of the Baltic Sea. The FRR system offers a highly dynamic tool for studies of phytoplankton photophysiology and productivity both in the field and in a controlled environment. The FRR metrics obtain high-frequency in situ determinations of the light-acclimative and photosynthetic parameters of intact phytoplankton communities. The measurement protocol is relatively easy to use without phases requiring analytical determinations. The most notable application of the FRR system lies in its potential for making primary productivity (PP) estimations. However, the realisation of this scheme is not straightforward. The FRR-PP, based on the photosynthetic electron flow (PEF) rate, are linearly related to the photosynthetic gas exchange (fixation of 14C) PP only in environments where the photosynthesis is light-limited. If the light limitation is not present, as is usually the case in the near-surface layers of the water column, the two PP approaches will deviate. The prompt response of the PEF rate to the short-term variability in the natural light field makes the field comparisons between the PEF-PP and the 14C-PP difficult to interpret, because this variability is averaged out in the 14C-incubations. Furthermore, the FRR based PP models are tuned to closely follow the vertical pattern of the underwater irradiance. Due to the photoacclimational plasticity of phytoplankton, this easily leads to overestimates of water column PP, if precautionary measures are not taken. Natural phytoplankton is subject to broad-waveband light. Active non-spectral bio-optical instruments, like the FRR fluorometer, emit light in a relatively narrow waveband, which by its nature does not represent the in situ light field. Thus, the spectrally-dependent parameters provided by the FRR system need to be spectrally scaled to the natural light field of the Baltic Sea. In general, the requirement of spectral scaling in the water bodies under terrestrial impact concerns all light-adaptive parameters provided by any active non-spectral bio-optical technique. The FRR system can be adopted to studies of all phytoplankton that possess efficient light harvesting in the waveband matching the bluish FRR excitation. Although these taxa cover the large bulk of all the phytoplankton taxa, one exception with a pronounced ecological significance is found in the Baltic Sea. The FRR system cannot be used to monitor the photophysiology of the cyanobacterial taxa harvesting light in the yellow-red waveband. These taxa include the ecologically-significant bloom-forming cyanobacterial taxa in the Baltic Sea.
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Mutation and recombination are the fundamental processes leading to genetic variation in natural populations. This variation forms the raw material for evolution through natural selection and drift. Therefore, studying mutation rates may reveal information about evolutionary histories as well as phylogenetic interrelationships of organisms. In this thesis two molecular tools, DNA barcoding and the molecular clock were examined. In the first part, the efficiency of mutations to delineate closely related species was tested and the implications for conservation practices were assessed. The second part investigated the proposition that a constant mutation rate exists within invertebrates, in form of a metabolic-rate dependent molecular clock, which can be applied to accurately date speciation events. DNA barcoding aspires to be an efficient technique to not only distinguish between species but also reveal population-level variation solely relying on mutations found on a short stretch of a single gene. In this thesis barcoding was applied to discriminate between Hylochares populations from Russian Karelia and new Hylochares findings from the greater Helsinki region in Finland. Although barcoding failed to delineate the two reproductively isolated groups, their distinct morphological features and differing life-history traits led to their classification as two closely related, although separate species. The lack of genetic differentiation appears to be due to a recent divergence event not yet reflected in the beetles molecular make-up. Thus, the Russian Hylochares was described as a new species. The Finnish species, previously considered as locally extinct, was recognized as endangered. Even if, due to their identical genetic make-up, the populations had been regarded as conspecific, conservation strategies based on prior knowledge from Russia would not have guaranteed the survival of the Finnish beetle. Therefore, new conservation actions based on detailed studies of the biology and life-history of the Finnish Hylochares were conducted to protect this endemic rarity in Finland. The idea behind the strict molecular clock is that mutation rates are constant over evolutionary time and may thus be used to infer species divergence dates. However, one of the most recent theories argues that a strict clock does not tick per unit of time but that it has a constant substitution rate per unit of mass-specific metabolic energy. Therefore, according to this hypothesis, molecular clocks have to be recalibrated taking body size and temperature into account. This thesis tested the temperature effect on mutation rates in equally sized invertebrates. For the first dataset (family Eucnemidae, Coleoptera) the phylogenetic interrelationships and evolutionary history of the genus Arrhipis had to be inferred before the influence of temperature on substitution rates could be studied. Further, a second, larger invertebrate dataset (family Syrphidae, Diptera) was employed. Several methodological approaches, a number of genes and multiple molecular clock models revealed that there was no consistent relationship between temperature and mutation rate for the taxa under study. Thus, the body size effect, observed in vertebrates but controversial for invertebrates, rather than temperature may be the underlying driving force behind the metabolic-rate dependent molecular clock. Therefore, the metabolic-rate dependent molecular clock does not hold for the here studied invertebrate groups. This thesis emphasizes that molecular techniques relying on mutation rates have to be applied with caution. Whereas they may work satisfactorily under certain conditions for specific taxa, they may fail for others. The molecular clock as well as DNA barcoding should incorporate all the information and data available to obtain comprehensive estimations of the existing biodiversity and its evolutionary history.
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This thesis focuses on the issue of testing sleepiness quantitatively. The issue is relevant to policymakers concerned with traffic- and occupational safety; such testing provides a tool for safety legislation and -surveillance. The findings of this thesis provide guidelines for a posturographic sleepiness tester. Sleepiness ensuing from staying awake merely 17 h impairs our performance as much as the legally proscribed blood alcohol concentration 0.5 does. Hence, sleepiness is a major risk factor in transportation and occupational accidents. The lack of convenient, commercial sleepiness tests precludes testing impending sleepiness levels contrary to simply breath testing for alcohol intoxication. Posturography is a potential sleepiness test, since clinical diurnal balance testing suggests the hypothesis that time awake could be posturographically estimable. Relying on this hypothesis this thesis examines posturographic sleepiness testing for instrumentation purposes. Empirical results from 63 subjects for whom we tested balance with a force platform during wakefulness for maximum 36 h show that sustained wakefulness impairs balance. The results show that time awake is posturographically estimable with 88% accuracy and 97% precision which validates our hypothesis. Results also show that balance scores tested at 13:30 hours serve as a threshold to detect excessive sleepiness. Analytical results show that the test length has a marked effect on estimation accuracy: 18 s tests suffice to identify sleepiness related balance changes, but trades off some of the accuracy achieved with 30 s tests. The procedure to estimate time awake relies on equating the subject s test score to a reference table (comprising balance scores tested during sustained wakefulness, regressed against time awake). Empirical results showed that sustained wakefulness explains 60% of the diurnal balance variations, whereas the time of day explains 40% of the balance variations. The latter fact implies that time awake estimations also must rely on knowing the local times of both test and reference scores.
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This study examines the properties of Generalised Regression (GREG) estimators for domain class frequencies and proportions. The family of GREG estimators forms the class of design-based model-assisted estimators. All GREG estimators utilise auxiliary information via modelling. The classic GREG estimator with a linear fixed effects assisting model (GREG-lin) is one example. But when estimating class frequencies, the study variable is binary or polytomous. Therefore logistic-type assisting models (e.g. logistic or probit model) should be preferred over the linear one. However, other GREG estimators than GREG-lin are rarely used, and knowledge about their properties is limited. This study examines the properties of L-GREG estimators, which are GREG estimators with fixed-effects logistic-type models. Three research questions are addressed. First, I study whether and when L-GREG estimators are more accurate than GREG-lin. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo experiments which cover both equal and unequal probability sampling designs and a wide variety of model formulations show that in standard situations, the difference between L-GREG and GREG-lin is small. But in the case of a strong assisting model, two interesting situations arise: if the domain sample size is reasonably large, L-GREG is more accurate than GREG-lin, and if the domain sample size is very small, estimation of assisting model parameters may be inaccurate, resulting in bias for L-GREG. Second, I study variance estimation for the L-GREG estimators. The standard variance estimator (S) for all GREG estimators resembles the Sen-Yates-Grundy variance estimator, but it is a double sum of prediction errors, not of the observed values of the study variable. Monte Carlo experiments show that S underestimates the variance of L-GREG especially if the domain sample size is minor, or if the assisting model is strong. Third, since the standard variance estimator S often fails for the L-GREG estimators, I propose a new augmented variance estimator (A). The difference between S and the new estimator A is that the latter takes into account the difference between the sample fit model and the census fit model. In Monte Carlo experiments, the new estimator A outperformed the standard estimator S in terms of bias, root mean square error and coverage rate. Thus the new estimator provides a good alternative to the standard estimator.
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This thesis studies binary time series models and their applications in empirical macroeconomics and finance. In addition to previously suggested models, new dynamic extensions are proposed to the static probit model commonly used in the previous literature. In particular, we are interested in probit models with an autoregressive model structure. In Chapter 2, the main objective is to compare the predictive performance of the static and dynamic probit models in forecasting the U.S. and German business cycle recession periods. Financial variables, such as interest rates and stock market returns, are used as predictive variables. The empirical results suggest that the recession periods are predictable and dynamic probit models, especially models with the autoregressive structure, outperform the static model. Chapter 3 proposes a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for the usefulness of the autoregressive structure of the probit model. The finite sample properties of the LM test are considered with simulation experiments. Results indicate that the two alternative LM test statistics have reasonable size and power in large samples. In small samples, a parametric bootstrap method is suggested to obtain approximately correct size. In Chapter 4, the predictive power of dynamic probit models in predicting the direction of stock market returns are examined. The novel idea is to use recession forecast (see Chapter 2) as a predictor of the stock return sign. The evidence suggests that the signs of the U.S. excess stock returns over the risk-free return are predictable both in and out of sample. The new "error correction" probit model yields the best forecasts and it also outperforms other predictive models, such as ARMAX models, in terms of statistical and economic goodness-of-fit measures. Chapter 5 generalizes the analysis of univariate models considered in Chapters 2 4 to the case of a bivariate model. A new bivariate autoregressive probit model is applied to predict the current state of the U.S. business cycle and growth rate cycle periods. Evidence of predictability of both cycle indicators is obtained and the bivariate model is found to outperform the univariate models in terms of predictive power.