24 resultados para Probability of choice

em Helda - Digital Repository of University of Helsinki


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The aim of this dissertation is to discuss the concept of choice in the most important collection of Islamic traditions, Sahih al-Bukhari. The author of the collection, Muhammad ibn Isma'il al-Bukhari, lived between 810-870. My starting point is the collection of texts as it is now in its normative, established form. I read the hadiths as pieces of reality, not as statements about reality. The historicity of the texts has no role at all in my analysis. Part I sketches out the hagiography of the life and work of the author and provides a short history of the development of hadith literature and the processes of collecting and classifying the texts are discussed briefly. Part one ends with the presentation of my way of using rhetorical analysis as a methodological tool. Part II introduces my analysis of the concept of choice. It is divided into ten chapters, each concentrating on one hadith cluster. Part II ends with a discussion of the philosophy of free will and predestination in early Islam. Hadith literature is often considered as a representative of predestinarian theology compared to the Qur'an which emphasises the reponsibility of people of their own acts. In my conclusions I suggest that accoding to the texts in Sahih al-Bukhari, people do deal with real choices in their lives. The collection includes both strictly predestinarian texts but it also compises texts which claim that people are demanded to make real choices, even choices concerning life and death.

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Soft tissue sarcomas are malignant tumours of mesenchymal origin. Because of infiltrative growth pattern, simple enucleation of the tumour causes a high rate of local recurrence. Instead, these tumours should be resected with a rim of normal tissue around the tumour. Data on the adequate margin width are scarce. At Helsinki University Central Hospital (HUCH) a multidisciplinary treatment group started in 1987. Surgical resection with a wide margin (2.5 cm) is the primary aim. In case of narrower margin radiation therapy is necessary. The role of adjuvant chemotherapy remains unclear. Our aims were to study local control by the surgical margin and to develop a new prognostic tool to aid decision-making on which patients should receive adjuvant chemotherapy. Patients with soft tissue sarcoma of the extremity or the trunk wall referred to HUCH during 1987-2002 form material in Studies I and II. External validation material comes from the Lund university sarcoma registry. The smallest surgical margin of at least 2.5 centimetres yielded local control of 89 per cent at five years. Amputation rate was 9 per cent. The proposed prognostic model with necrosis, vascular invasion, size on a continuous scale, depth, location and grade worked well both in Helsinki material and in the validation material, and it also showed good calibration. Based on the present study, we recommend the smallest surgical margin of 2-3 centimetres in soft tissue sarcoma irrespective of grade. Improvement in local control was present but modest in margins wider than 1 centimetre. In cases where gaining a wider margin would lead to a considerable loss of function, smaller margin is to be considered combined to radiation therapy. Patients treated with inadequate margins should be offered radiation therapy irrespective of tumour grade. Our new prognostic model to estimate 10-year survival probability in patients with soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities or trunk wall showed good dicscrimination and calibration. For time being the prognostic model is available for scientific use and further validations. In the future, the model may aid in clinical decision-making. For operable osteosarcoma, neoadjuvant multidrug chemotherapy followed by delayed surgery and multidrug adjuvant chemotherapy is the treatment of choice. Overall survival rates at five years are approximately 75 per cent in modern trials with classical osteosarcoma. All patients diagnosed and reported to the Finnish Cancer Registry with osteosarcoma in Finland during 1971-2005 form the material in Studies III and IV. Limb-salvage rate increased from 23 per cent to 78 per cent during 1971-2005. The 10-year sarcoma-specific survival for the whole study population improved from 32 per cent to 62 per cent. It was 75 per cent for patients with a local high-grade osteosarcoma of the extremity diagnosed during 1991-2005. This study outlines the improved prognosis of osteosarcoma patients in Finland with modern chemotherapy. The 10-year survival rates are good also in an international scale. Nonetheless, their limb-salvage rate remains inferior to those seen for highly selected patient series. Overall, the centralisation of osteosarcoma treatment would most likely improve both survival and limb-salvage rates even further.

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Objective: Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a life-long condition, but because of its historical status as a self-remitting disorder of childhood, empirically validated and reliable methods for the assessment of adults are scarce. In this study, the validity and reliability of the Wender Utah Rating Scale (WURS) and the Adult Problem Questionnaire (APQ), which survey childhood and current symptoms of ADHD, respectively, were studied in a Finnish sample. Methods: The self-rating scales were administered to adults with an ADHD diagnosis (n = 38), healthy control participants (n = 41), and adults diagnosed with dyslexia (n = 37). Items of the self-rating scales were subjected to factor analyses, after which the reliability and discriminatory power of the subscales, derived from the factors, were examined. The effects of group and gender on the subscales of both rating scales were studied. Additionally, the effect of age on the subscales of the WURS was investigated. Finally, the diagnostic accuracy of the total scores was studied. Results: On the basis of the factor analyses, a four-factor structure for the WURS and five-factor structure for the APQ had the best fit to the data. All of the subscales of the APQ and three of the WURS achieved sufficient reliability. The ADHD group had the highest scores on all of the subscales of the APQ, whereas two of the subscales of the WURS did not statistically differ between the ADHD and the Dyslexia group. None of the subscales of the WURS or the APQ was associated with the participant's gender. However, one subscale of the WURS describing dysthymia was positively correlated with the participant's age. With the WURS, the probability of a correct positive classification was .59 in the current sample and .21 when the relatively low prevalence of adult ADHD was taken into account. The probabilities of correct positive classifications with the APQ were .71 and .23, respectively. Conclusions: The WURS and the APQ can provide accurate and reliable information of childhood and adult ADHD symptoms, given some important constraints. Classifications made on the basis of the total scores are reliable predictors of ADHD diagnosis only in populations with a high proportion of ADHD and a low proportion of other similar disorders. The subscale scores can provide detailed information of an individual's symptoms if the characteristics and limitations of each domain are taken into account. Improvements are suggested for two subscales of the WURS.

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Mass occurrences (blooms) of cyanobacteria are common in aquatic environments worldwide. These blooms are often toxic, due to the presence of hepatotoxins or neurotoxins. The most common cyanobacterial toxins are hepatotoxins: microcystins and nodularins. In freshwaters, the main producers of microcystins are Microcystis, Anabaena, and Planktothrix. Nodularins are produced by strains of Nodularia spumigena in brackish waters. Toxic and nontoxic strains of cyanobacteria co-occur and cannot be differentiated by conventional microscopy. Molecular biological methods based on microcystin and nodularin synthetase genes enable detection of potentially hepatotoxic cyanobacteria. In the present study, molecular detection methods for hepatotoxin-producing cyanobacteria were developed, based on microcystin synthetase gene E (mcyE) and the orthologous nodularin synthetase gene F (ndaF) sequences. General primers were designed to amplify the mcyE/ndaF gene region from microcystin-producing Anabaena, Microcystis, Planktothrix, and Nostoc, and nodularin-producing Nodularia strains. The sequences were used for phylogenetic analyses to study how cyanobacterial mcy genes have evolved. The results showed that mcy genes and microcystin are very old and were already present in the ancestor of many modern cyanobacterial genera. The results also suggested that the sporadic distribution of biosynthetic genes in modern cyanobacteria is caused by repeated gene losses in the more derived lineages of cyanobacteria and not by horizontal gene transfer. Phylogenetic analysis also proposed that nda genes evolved from mcy genes. The frequency and composition of the microcystin producers in 70 lakes in Finland were studied by conventional polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Potential microcystin producers were detected in 84% of the lakes, using general mcyE primers, and in 91% of the lakes with the three genus-specific mcyE primers. Potential microcystin-producing Microcystis were detected in 70%, Planktothrix in 63%, and Anabaena in 37% of the lakes. The presence and co-occurrence of potential microcystin producers were more frequent in eutrophic lakes, where the total phosphorus concentration was high. The PCR results could also be associated with various environmental factors by correlation and regression analyses. In these analyses, the total nitrogen concentration and pH were both associated with the presence of multiple microcystin-producing genera and partly explained the probability of occurrence of mcyE genes. In general, the results showed that higher nutrient concentrations increased the occurrence of potential microcystin producers and the risk for toxic bloom formation. Genus-specific probe pairs for microcystin-producing Anabaena, Microcystis, Planktothrix, and Nostoc, and nodularin-producing Nodularia were designed to be used in a DNA-chip assay. The DNA-chip can be used to simultaneously detect all these potential microcystin/nodularin producers in environmental water samples. The probe pairs detected the mcyE/ndaF genes specifically and sensitively when tested with cyanobacterial strains. In addition, potential microcystin/nodularin producers were identified in lake and Baltic Sea samples by the DNA-chip almost as sensitively as by quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR), which was used to validate the DNA-chip results. Further improvement of the DNA-chip assay was achieved by optimization of the PCR, the first step in the assay. Analysis of the mcy and nda gene clusters from various hepatotoxin-producing cyanobacteria was rewarding; it revealed that the genes were ancient. In addition, new methods detecting all the main producers of hepatotoxins could be developed. Interestingly, potential microcystin-producing cyanobacterial strains of Microcystis, Planktothrix, and Anabaena, co-occurred especially in eutrophic and hypertrophic lakes. Protecting waters from eutrophication and restoration of lakes may thus decrease the prevalence of toxic cyanobacteria and the frequency of toxic blooms.

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The molecular level structure of mixtures of water and alcohols is very complicated and has been under intense research in the recent past. Both experimental and computational methods have been used in the studies. One method for studying the intra- and intermolecular bindings in the mixtures is the use of the so called difference Compton profiles, which are a way to obtain information about changes in the electron wave functions. In the process of Compton scattering a photon scatters inelastically from an electron. The Compton profile that is obtained from the electron wave functions is directly proportional to the probability of photon scattering at a given energy to a given solid angle. In this work we develop a method to compute Compton profiles numerically for mixtures of liquids. In order to obtain the electronic wave functions necessary to calculate the Compton profiles we need some statistical information about atomic coordinates. Acquiring this using ab-initio molecular dynamics is beyond our computational capabilities and therefore we use classical molecular dynamics to model the movement of atoms in the mixture. We discuss the validity of the chosen method in view of the results obtained from the simulations. There are some difficulties in using classical molecular dynamics for the quantum mechanical calculations, but these can possibly be overcome by parameter tuning. According to the calculations clear differences can be seen in the Compton profiles of different mixtures. This prediction needs to be tested in experiments in order to find out whether the approximations made are valid.

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Positron emission tomography (PET) is an imaging technique in which radioactive positron-emitting tracers are used to study biochemical and physiological functions in humans and in animal experiments. The use of PET imaging has increased rapidly in recent years, as have special requirements in the fields of neurology and oncology for the development of syntheses for new, more specific and selective radiotracers. Synthesis development and automation are necessary when high amounts of radioactivity are needed for multiple PET studies. In addition, preclinical studies using experimental animal models are necessary for evaluating the suitability of new PET tracers for humans. For purification and analysing the labelled end-product, an effective radioanalytical method combined with an optimal radioactivity detection technique is of great importance. In this study, a fluorine-18 labelling synthesis method for two tracers was developed and optimized, and the usefulness of these tracers for possible prospective human studies was evaluated. N-(3-[18F]fluoropropyl)-2β-carbomethoxy-3β-(4-fluorophenyl)nortropane ([18F]β-CFT-FP) is a candidate PET tracer for the dopamine transporter (DAT), and 1H-1-(3-[18F]fluoro-2-hydroxypropyl)-2-nitroimidazole ([18F]FMISO) is a well-known hypoxia marker for hypoxic but viable cells in tumours. The methodological aim of this thesis was to evaluate the status of thin-layer chromatography (TLC) combined with proper radioactivity detection measurement systems as a radioanalytical method. Three different detection methods of radioactivity were compared: radioactivity scanning, film autoradiography, and digital photostimulated luminescence (PSL) autoradiography. The fluorine-18 labelling synthesis for [18F]β-CFT-FP was developed and carbon-11 labelled [11C]β-CFT-FP was used to study the specificity of β-CFT-FP for the DAT sites in human post-mortem brain slices. These in vitro studies showed that β-CFT-FP binds to the caudate-putamen, an area rich of DAT. The synthesis of fluorine-18 labelled [18F]FMISO was optimized, and the tracer was prepared using an automated system with good and reproducible yields. In preclinical studies, the action of the radiation sensitizer estramustine phosphate on the radiation treatment and uptake of [18F]FMISO was evaluated, with results of great importance for later human studies. The methodological part of this thesis showed that radioTLC is the method of choice when combined with an appropriate radioactivity detection technique. Digital PSL autoradiography proved to be the most appropriate when compared to the radioactivity scanning and film autoradiography methods. The very high sensitivity, good resolution, and wide dynamic range of digital PSL autoradiography are its advantages in detection of β-emitting radiolabelled substances.

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This thesis is grounded on four articles. Article I generally examines the factors affecting dental service utilization. Article II studies the factors associated with sector-specific utilization among young adults entitled to age-based subsidized dental care. Article III explores the determinants of dental ill-health as measured by the occurrence of caries and the relationship between dental ill-health and dental care use. Article IV measures and explains income-related inequality in utilization. Data employed were from the 1996 Finnish Health Care Survey (I, II, IV) and the 1997 follow-up study included in the longitudinal study of the Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort (III). Utilization is considered as a multi-stage decision-making process and measured as the number of visits to the dentist. Modified count data models and concentration and horizontal equity indices were applied. Dentist s recall appeared very efficient at stimulating individuals to seek care. Dental pain, recall, and the low number of missing teeth positively affected utilization. Public subvention for dental care did not seem to statistically increase utilization. Among young adults, a perception of insufficient public service availability and recall were positively associated with the choice of a private dentist, whereas income and dentist density were positively associated with the number of visits to private dentists. Among cohort females, factors increasing caries were body mass index and intake of alcohol, sugar, and soft drinks and those reducing caries were birth weight and adolescent school achievement. Among cohort males, caries was positively related to the metropolitan residence and negatively related to healthy diet and education. Smoking increased caries, whereas regular teeth brushing, regular dental attendance and dental care use decreased caries. We found equity in young adults utilization but pro-rich inequity in the total number of visits to all dentists and in the probability of visiting a dentist for the whole sample. We observed inequity in the total number of visits to the dentist and in the probability of visiting a dentist, being pro-poor for public care but pro-rich for private care. The findings suggest that to enhance equal access to and use of dental care across population and income groups, attention should focus on supply factors and incentives to encourage people to contact dentists more often. Lowering co-payments and service fees and improving public availability would likely increase service use in both sectors. To attain favorable oral health, appropriate policies aimed at improving dental health education and reducing the detrimental effects of common risk factors on dental health should be strengthened. Providing equal access with respect to need for all people ought to take account of the segmentation of the service system, with its two parallel delivery systems and different supplier incentives to patients and dentists.

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Tämä väitöskirja koostuu asuntomarkkinoiden taloustieteellistä analyysia esittelevästä johdantoluvusta ja kolmesta tutkimuksesta, joissa analysoidaan asuntomarkkinoihin vaikuttavia politiikkatoimenpiteitä. Luvussa 2 tutkitaan Suomen kiinteistöverojärjestelmän vaikutusta asuntorakentamiseen. Vuonna 2001 tehtiin uudistus, jonka myötä kunnat voivat verottaa rakentamatonta asuintonttia korkeammalla veroasteella kuin rakennettua tonttia. Maanomistajan rakentamispäätöksen teoreettisen mallin mukaan rakentamattoman tontin korotettu kiinteistöveron pitäisi nopeuttaa rakentamista, mutta toisaalta myös rakentamiseen investoitu rahamäärä saattaa muuttua. Asuintonttien kiinteistöverojen yleinen taso ei vaikuta maanomistajan käyttäytymiseen, sillä tontin verotusarvo ei riipu rakentamispäätöksestä. Vain rakentamattoman ja rakennetun tontin veroasteiden erolla on merkitystä. Empiiriset tulokset ovat sopusoinnussa teorian kanssa. Tulosten mukaan prosenttiyksikön nousu rakentamattoman ja rakennetun tontin veroasteiden erossa lisää omakotialoitusten määrää viidellä prosentilla lyhyellä aikavälillä. Luvussa 3 analysoidaan vuokrasääntelystä vuokralaisille aiheutuvia hyötyjä ja haittoja. Vuokrasäännellyissä asunnoissa asuvat kotitaloudet hyötyvät vuokrasääntelystä alhaisen vuokran muodossa. Heille saattaa kuitenkin koitua myös haittaa siitä, että toiveita vastaavan asunnon löytäminen on vuokrasääntelytilanteessa vaikeaa, koska vapaille asunnoille on suuri määrä ottajia. Vapaarahoitteisen vuokra-asuntokannan vuokrien sääntely purettiin Suomessa asteittain vuosina 1992–1995. Tutkimuksen empiiriset tulokset viittaavat siihen, että vuokrasääntelyn aiheuttamista suurista eroista halutun ja todellisen asuntokulutuksen välillä koituvat hyvinvointitappiot kumosivat merkittävän osan matalien vuokrien hyödyistä vuokralaisille. Luvussa 4 tutkitaan Suomen asumistukijärjestelmän kannustinvaikutuksia. Asumistuen määrää rajoittavat asunnon pinta-alalle ja neliövuokralle asetetut ylärajat. Neliövuokrarajoite voidaan tulkita asumisen laatua rajoittavana tekijänä. Tutkimuksen teoreettisessa osassa osoitetaan, että asumistukijärjestelmä luo vahvat kannustimet muuttaa asuntoihin, joissa pinta-ala- ja laaturajoitteet purevat. Empiiristen tulosten mukaan asumistukeen oikeutetut kotitaloudet eivät näytä reagoivan kannusteisiin. Tukeen oikeutettujen kotitalouksien asumisvalinnat suhteessa pinta-ala ja laaturajoitteisiin vastaavat muiden kotitalouksien valintoja ja asunnonvaihdon mahdollistama potentiaalinen asumistuen lisäys ei nosta muuttotodennäköisyyttä. Muuttamiseen liittyvät kustannukset ja vajavaiset tiedot tukijärjestelmästä saattavat selittää heikkoa reagointia asumistuen luomiin kannustimiin. Toinen mahdollinen selitys on asumistuen vajaakäyttö. Tutkimuksen mukaan vain 70–80 prosenttia asumistukeen oikeutetuista kotitalouksista nostaa tukea. Asumistuen hyödyntämisen todennäköisyys riippuu koulutustasosta, tuen määrästä ja tulo-odotuksista.

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Human actions cause destruction and fragmentation of natural habitats, predisposing populations to loss of genetic diversity and inbreeding, which may further decrease their fitness and survival. Understanding these processes is a main concern in conservation genetics. Yet data from natural populations is scarce, particularly on invertebrates, owing to difficulties in measuring both fitness and inbreeding in the wild. Ants are social insects, and a prime example of an ecologically important group for which the effects of inbreeding remain largely unstudied. Social insects serve key roles in all terrestrial ecosystems, and the division of labor between the females in the colonies queens reproduce, workers tend to the developing brood probably is central to their ecological success. Sociality also has important implications for the effects of inbreeding. Despite their relative abundance, the effective population sizes of social insects tend to be small, owing to the low numbers of reproductive individuals relative to the numbers of sterile workers. This may subject social insects to loss of genetic diversity and subsequent inbreeding depression. Moreover, both the workers and queens can be inbred, with different and possibly multiplicative consequences. The aim of this study was to investigate causes and consequences of inbreeding in a natural population of ants. I used a combination of long-term field and genetic data from colonies of the narrow-headed ant Formica exsecta to examine dispersal, mating behavior and the occurrence of inbreeding, and its consequences on individual and colony traits. Mating in this species takes place in nuptial flights that have been assumed to be population-wide and panmictic. My results, however, show that dispersal is local, with queens establishing new colonies as close as 60 meters from their natal colony. Even though actual sib-mating was rare, individuals from different but related colonies pair, which causes the population to be inbred. Furthermore, multiple mates of queens were related to each other, which also indicates localized mating flights. Hence, known mechanisms of inbreeding avoidance, dispersal and multiple mating, were not effective in this population, as neither reduced inbreeding level of the future colony. Inbreeding had negative consequences both at the individual and colony level. A queen that has mated with a related male produces inbred workers, which impairs the colony s reproductive success. The inbred colonies were less productive and, specifically, produced fewer new queens, possibly owing to effects of inbreeding on the caste determination of female larvae. A striking finding was that males raised in colonies with inbred workers were smaller, which reflects an effect of the social environment as males, being haploid, cannot be inbred themselves. The queens produced in the inbred colonies, in contrast, were not smaller, but their immune response was up-regulated. Inbreeding had no effect on queen dispersal, but inbred queens had a lower probability of successfully founding a new colony. Ultimately, queens that survived through the colony founding phase had a shorter lifespan. This supports the idea that inbreeding imposes a genetic stress, leading to inbreeding depression on both the queen and the colony level. My results show that inbreeding can have profound consequences on insects in the wild, and that in social species the effects of inbreeding may be multiplicative and mediated through the diversity of the social environment, as well as the genetic makeup of the individuals themselves. This emphasizes the need to take into account all levels of organization when assessing the effects of genetic diversity in social animals.

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The results presented in this thesis show that all females of a given population do not necessarily choose similar mating partners. Specifically, partner preferences of a fish, the sand goby (Pomatoschistus minutus), varied among individual females and depended on the social context at the time of choice. I also show that females assess multiple mate choice cues simultaneously; partner preferences were based more strongly on an interaction effect between different choice cues than on any individual cue. Furthermore, I found that preferred matings involved fitness benefits in the form of increased offspring success, but these benefits were not significantly affected by mate compatibility. Hence, mate choice for partner compatibility does not appear to be an important determinant of the observed variation in female mate preferences in this species. The context-dependency of female mating preferences revealed is relevant to how genetic variation in sexually selected traits might be maintained: as the mating success of a certain male type varies according to the choice context, directional sexual selection on male traits is shown to be less intense than generally thought making for a slower loss of genetic variation in these traits. Mating preferences of sand gobies were assessed by giving females a binary choice between males that differed in body size and/or other focus traits. These association preferences were found to be sexually motivated, repeatable and to correspond to actual mating decisions.

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Ongoing habitat loss and fragmentation threaten much of the biodiversity that we know today. As such, conservation efforts are required if we want to protect biodiversity. Conservation budgets are typically tight, making the cost-effective selection of protected areas difficult. Therefore, reserve design methods have been developed to identify sets of sites, that together represent the species of conservation interest in a cost-effective manner. To be able to select reserve networks, data on species distributions is needed. Such data is often incomplete, but species habitat distribution models (SHDMs) can be used to link the occurrence of the species at the surveyed sites to the environmental conditions at these locations (e.g. climatic, vegetation and soil conditions). The probability of the species occurring at unvisited location is next predicted by the model, based on the environmental conditions of those sites. The spatial configuration of reserve networks is important, because habitat loss around reserves can influence the persistence of species inside the network. Since species differ in their requirements for network configuration, the spatial cohesion of networks needs to be species-specific. A way to account for species-specific requirements is to use spatial variables in SHDMs. Spatial SHDMs allow the evaluation of the effect of reserve network configuration on the probability of occurrence of the species inside the network. Even though reserves are important for conservation, they are not the only option available to conservation planners. To enhance or maintain habitat quality, restoration or maintenance measures are sometimes required. As a result, the number of conservation options per site increases. Currently available reserve selection tools do however not offer the ability to handle multiple, alternative options per site. This thesis extends the existing methodology for reserve design, by offering methods to identify cost-effective conservation planning solutions when multiple, alternative conservation options are available per site. Although restoration and maintenance measures are beneficial to certain species, they can be harmful to other species with different requirements. This introduces trade-offs between species when identifying which conservation action is best applied to which site. The thesis describes how the strength of such trade-offs can be identified, which is useful for assessing consequences of conservation decisions regarding species priorities and budget. Furthermore, the results of the thesis indicate that spatial SHDMs can be successfully used to account for species-specific requirements for spatial cohesion - in the reserve selection (single-option) context as well as in the multi-option context. Accounting for the spatial requirements of multiple species and allowing for several conservation options is however complicated, due to trade-offs in species requirements. It is also shown that spatial SHDMs can be successfully used for gaining information on factors that drive a species spatial distribution. Such information is valuable to conservation planning, as better knowledge on species requirements facilitates the design of networks for species persistence. This methods and results described in this thesis aim to improve species probabilities of persistence, by taking better account of species habitat and spatial requirements. Many real-world conservation planning problems are characterised by a variety of conservation options related to protection, restoration and maintenance of habitat. Planning tools therefore need to be able to incorporate multiple conservation options per site, in order to continue the search for cost-effective conservation planning solutions. Simultaneously, the spatial requirements of species need to be considered. The methods described in this thesis offer a starting point for combining these two relevant aspects of conservation planning.

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Defence against pathogens is a vital need of all living organisms that has led to the evolution of complex immune mechanisms. However, although immunocompetence the ability to resist pathogens and control infection has in recent decades become a focus for research in evolutionary ecology, the variation in immune function observed in natural populations is relatively little understood. This thesis examines sources of this variation (environmental, genetic and maternal effects) during the nestling stage and its fitness consequences in wild populations of passerines: the blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) and the collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis). A developing organism may face a dilemma as to whether to allocate limited resources to growth or to immune defences. The optimal level of investment in immunity is shaped inherently by specific requirements of the environment. If the probability of contracting infection is low, maintaining high growth rates even at the expense of immune function may be advantageous for nestlings, as body mass is usually a good predictor of post-fledging survival. In experiments with blue tits and haematophagous hen fleas (Ceratophyllus gallinae) using two methods, methionine supplementation (to manipulate nestlings resource allocation to cellular immune function) and food supplementation (to increase resource availability), I confirmed that there is a trade-off between growth and immunity and that the abundance of ectoparasites is an environmental factor affecting allocation of resources to immune function. A cross-fostering experiment also revealed that environmental heterogeneity in terms of abundance of ectoparasites may contribute to maintaining additive genetic variation in immunity and other traits. Animal model analysis of extensive data collected from the population of collared flycatchers on Gotland (Sweden) allowed examination of the narrow-sense heritability of PHA-response the most commonly used index of cellular immunocompetence in avian studies. PHA-response is not heritable in this population, but is subject to a non-heritable origin (presumably maternal) effect. However, experimental manipulation of yolk androgen levels indicates that the mechanism of the maternal effect in PHA-response is not in ovo deposition of androgens. The relationship between PHA-response and recruitment was studied for over 1300 collared flycatcher nestlings. Multivariate selection analysis shows that it is body mass, not PHA-response, that is under direct selection. PHA-response appears to be related to recruitment because of its positive relationship with body mass. These results imply that either PHA-response fails to capture the immune mechanisms that are relevant for defence against pathogens encountered by fledglings or that the selection pressure from parasites is not as strong as commonly assumed.

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The area of intensively managed forests, in which required conditions for several liverwort species are seldom found, has expanded over the forest landscape during the last century. Liverworts are very sensitive to habitat changes, because they demand continuously moist microclimate. Consequently, about third of the forest liverworts have been classified as threatened or near threatened in Finland. The general objective of this thesis is to increase knowledge of the reproductive and dispersal strategies of the substrate-specific forest bryophytes. A further aim was to develop recommendations for conservation measures for species inhabiting unstable and stable habitats in forest landscape. Both population ecological and genetic methods have been applied in the research. Anastrophyllum hellerianum inhabits spatially and temporally limited substrate patches, decaying logs, which can be considered as unstable habitats. The results show that asexual reproduction by gemmae is the dominant mode of reproduction, whereas sexual reproduction is considerably infrequent. Unlike previously assumed, not only spores but also the asexual propagules may contribute to long-distance dispersal. The combination of occasional spore production and practically continuous, massive gemma production facilitates dispersal both on a local scale and over long distances, and it compensates for the great propagule losses that take place preceding successful establishment at suitable sites. However, establishment probability of spores may be restricted because of environmental and biological limitations linked to the low success of sexual reproduction. Long-lasting dry seasons are likely to result in a low success of sexual reproduction and decreased release rate of gemmae from the shoots, and consequent fluctuations in population sizes. In the long term, the substratum limitation is likely to restrict population sizes and cause local extinctions, especially in small-sized remnant populations. Contrastingly, larger forest fragments with more natural disturbance dynamics, to which the species is adapted, are pivotal to species survival. Trichocolea tomentella occupies stable spring and mesic habitats in woodland. The relatively small populations are increasingly fragmented with a high risk for extinction for extrinsic reasons. The results show that T. tomentella mainly invests in population persistence by effective clonal growth via forming independent ramets and in competitive ability, and considerably less in sexuality and dispersal potential. The populations possess relatively high levels of genetic diversity regardless of population size and of degree of isolation. Thus, the small-sized populations inhabiting stable habitats should not be neglected when establishing conservation strategies for the species and when considering the habitat protection of small spring sites. Restricted dispersal capacity, also on a relatively small spatial scale, is likely to prevent successful (re-)colonization in the potential habitat patches of recovering forest landscapes. By contrast, random short-range dispersal of detached vegetative fragments within populations at suitable habitat seems to be frequent. Thus, the restoration actions of spring and streamside habitats close to the populations of T. tomentella may contribute to population expansion. That, in turn, decreases the harmful effects of environmental stochasticity.

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Climate change will influence the living conditions of all life on Earth. For some species the change in the environmental conditions that has occurred so far has already increased the risk of extinction, and the extinction risk is predicted to increase for large numbers of species in the future. Some species may have time to adapt to the changing environmental conditions, but the rate and magnitude of the change are too great to allow many species to survive via evolutionary changes. Species responses to climate change have been documented for some decades. Some groups of species, like many insects, respond readily to changes in temperature conditions and have shifted their distributions northwards to new climatically suitable regions. Such range shifts have been well documented especially in temperate zones. In this context, butterflies have been studied more than any other group of species, partly for the reason that their past geographical ranges are well documented, which facilitates species-climate modelling and other analyses. The aim of the modelling studies is to examine to what extent shifts in species distributions can be explained by climatic and other factors. Models can also be used to predict the future distributions of species. In this thesis, I have studied the response to climate change of one species of butterfly within one geographically restricted area. The study species, the European map butterfly (Araschnia levana), has expanded rapidly northwards in Finland during the last two decades. I used statistical and dynamic modelling approaches in combination with field studies to analyse the effects of climate warming and landscape structure on the expansion. I studied possible role of molecular variation in phosphoglucose isomerase (PGI), a glycolytic enzyme affecting flight metabolism and thereby flight performance, in the observed expansion of the map butterfly at two separate expansion fronts in Finland. The expansion rate of the map butterfly was shown to be correlated with the frequency of warmer than average summers during the study period. The result is in line with the greater probability of occurrence of the second generation during warm summers and previous results on this species showing greater mobility of the second than first generation individuals. The results of a field study in this thesis indicated low mobility of the first generation butterflies. Climatic variables alone were not sufficient to explain the observed expansion in Finland. There are also problems in transferring the climate model to new regions from the ones from which data were available to construct the model. The climate model predicted a wider distribution in the south-western part of Finland than what has been observed. Dynamic modelling of the expansion in response to landscape structure suggested that habitat and landscape structure influence the rate of expansion. In southern Finland the landscape structure may have slowed down the expansion rate. The results on PGI suggested that allelic variation in this enzyme may influence flight performance and thereby the rate of expansion. Genetic differences of the populations at the two expansion fronts may explain at least partly the observed differences in the rate of expansion. Individuals with the genotype associated with high flight metabolic rate were most frequent in eastern Finland, where the rate of range expansion has been highest.

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Predation forms one of the main selective forces in nature and in a vast number of prey species the behavioural responses form the main way to avoid predation. World wide numerous captive breeding programs are used to produce fish and other animal species for conservational reintroductions. However, rearing animals in the absence of predators in captivity has been shown to weaken their predator avoidance skills and lead to behavioural divergence between wild and captive-bred populations. In my thesis I studied the effects of predator odour exposures on antipredator behavioural and physiological responses of captive reared Saimaa Arctic charr. This charr population is the most endangered fish population in Finland and a sample of the remaining population has been taken to captive breeding and used for an extensive reintroduction program. Lowered responsiveness to predators is probably one of the major reasons for the poor survival probability of the charr after release into the wild. The main aims of my thesis were to explore the reasons for behavioural phenotypic variation in this charr population and whether naïve charr young could be trained to recognise their natural predators. The predator species in my thesis were burbot (Lota lota) and pikeperch (Sander lucioperca). In my thesis I showed that the captive-bred charr responded to chemical cues from burbot and pikeperch, but the magnitude of responses was linked to the predator species. The burbot odour increased the spatial odour avoidance of the charr young. On the other hand, in the pikeperch treatment charr reduced their relative swimming activity and tended to show more freezing behaviour relative to the burbot treatment. It seems evident that these different responses are related to the different hunting tactics of predator species. Furthermore, I detected wide between-family differences in antipredator responsiveness (i.e. inherited variation in antipredator behaviours) in this captive stock. Detected differences were greater in the response towards burbot than towards pikeperch. These results, in addition to predator-specific antipredator responses, suggest that there is a clear inherited component in antipredator responsiveness in Saimaa charr population and that the detected inherited differences could explain a part of the behavioural phenotypic variation in this population. In my thesis I also found out that both social learning and direct exposure to live predators enhance the antipredator responsiveness of charr young. In addition, I obtained indications that predator odour exposures (i.e. life-skills training) in alevin and fry stages can fine-tune the innate antipredator responsiveness of charr. Thus, all these methods have the potential to enhance the innate antipredator responsiveness of naïve charr young, possibly also improving the post-release survival of these trained individuals in the wild. However, the next logical phase would be to carry out large scale survival studies in the wild to test this hypothesis. Finally, the results of my thesis emphasize that possible long-term life-skills training methods should take into account not only the behavioural but also the physiological effects of training.