Arvot intialaissyntyisten maahanmuuttajien akkulturaatioprosessissa

The study examined immigrants´ attitudes towards acculturation, in other words the social and cultural changes that take place in the adaptation process. The perspective of acculturation studies was also expanded by examining immigrants´ cultural values and their experiences of majority´s expectations. In addition, special interest was directed to the relations between acculturation attitudes and values and both factors´ relevance on psychological well-being. Indian born immigrants were selected as subjects as they are one of the fastest growing ethnic minorities in Finland. This minority has not been included in immigration studies previously. The seventy-five immigrants that participated as subjects represent a highly educated subgroup of Indian born immigrants. The study was carried out with posted questionnaires. Most of the subjects received an inquiry of their motivation to participate by e-mail or phone before the postal questionnaire. The results were in line with previous studies in Finland as the attitudes emphasising cultural integration were dominant. However, attitudes towards marriage, reflecting deeper and less flexible parts of culture, were dominated by separation motives. Immigrants´ perceptions of majority´s expectations reflected partly the real assimilation wishes demonstrated in previous studies. Against hypotheses, discrepancies between acculturation attitudes and experiences of majority´s expectations did not predict immigrants´ psychological well-being in a clear way. The highly educated Indian born immigrants emphasised self-direction and universalism in their values. This separates them from the traditional cultural values of India. The hypotheses made of the predictive relations between values and acculturation attitudes were partly confirmed. Also, the assumptions concerning both the stress buffering role of collectivistic values and the positive effect of achievement values on feelings of mastery were confirmed. Despite the limitations in the data, this study strengthens the view that cultural and personal values play a significant role in immigrants´ adaptation process. Information about values can benefit individuals making hard decisions and coping with cultural change as well as officials modifying Finnish immigration policy and planning the support system for immigrants.

Opettajan ja vanhemman vuorovaikutus ja keskustelun kehykset koululaisen kehityskeskusteluissa

The aim of the study is to describe the consultation discussions between the teacher, parents and the student. The structure and the interaction of the conversation is in the focus of the study. The study explicates the organization of the interaction and orientation of the participants in the conversation. The study approaches conversation as a dynamic activity and studies it from the point of view of the participants. Assessment is one of the themes involved in the teacher-parent-student consultation discussions. Assessment as a duty of the school brings an institutional aspect in the conversation, but the ways it is implemented and expressed varies in the conversational situations. Participants communication and interaction in the situation influences the ways the consultation discussions are carried out. The framework of the study is based on the ethno methodological approach where a social situation and its meaning is seen negotiated by the participants. The interest of the study is to find out how the participants implement mutual understanding and how it can be observed in their interaction. Quantitatively, the interaction of the participants is described in the framework of the interaction analysis and linked to the socio-emotional and rational aspects of the interaction. The empirical part of the study consists of data collected with questionnaires and videotaped conversations. The main research problems of the study are, how the teachers and parents described the consultation discussions and how the interaction of the teacher, the parent and the student is organized during the conversation. The background of the study is linked to the previous studies concerning co-operation between the teacher and the parent and home-school relationship. This part of the study aims to enlighten how the consultation discussions are part of the co-operation in the school context. The questionnaires link the consultation discussions to the every day co-operation between the teacher and the family. Expectations and results described by the parents and teachers are analysed. Videotaped data is both analysed quantitatively based on interaction analysis and approached with the ethno methodological interpretation. The interest of my study is, how people participate in the situation of consultation discussion, how they orientate in it and influence the conversation. The analyses of the consultation discussions are based on the both quantitative interaction analysis and ethno methodological frame analysis. With the theoretical approach of my study I want to describe and enlighten the organization of the interaction and ways of orientation of the participants in consultation discussions. Keywords: consultation discussion, interaction, evaluation, orientation in the conversation, home-school cooperation, quantitative interaction analysis, frame analysis

Dynamics of inflation expectations in the euro area

The present study examines empirically the inflation dynamics of the euro area. The focus of the analysis is on the role of expectations in the inflation process. In six articles we relax rationality assumption and proxy expectations directly using OECD forecasts or Consensus Economics survey data. In the first four articles we estimate alternative Phillips curve specifications and find evidence that inflation cannot instantaneously adjust to changes in expectations. A possible departure of expectations from rationality seems not to be powerful enough to totally explain the persistence of euro area inflation in the New Keynesian framework. When expectations are measured directly, the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve is outperformed by the hybrid Phillips curve with an additional lagged inflation term and the New Classical Phillips curve with a lagged expectations term. The results suggest that the euro area inflation process has become more forward-looking in the recent years of low and stable inflation. Moreover, in low inflation countries, the inflation dynamics have been more forward-looking already since the late 1970s. We find evidence of substantial heterogeneity of inflation dynamics across the euro area countries. Real time data analysis suggests that in the euro area real time information matters most in the expectations term in the Phillips curve and that the balance of expectations formation is more forward- than backward-looking. Vector autoregressive (VAR) models of actual inflation, inflation expectations and the output gap are estimated in the last two articles.The VAR analysis indicates that inflation expectations, which are relatively persistent, have a significant effect on output. However,expectations seem to react to changes in both output and actual inflation, especially in the medium term. Overall, this study suggests that expectations play a central role in inflation dynamics, which should be taken into account in conducting monetary policy.

Participation or further exclusion? : Contestations over forest conservation and control in the East Usambara Mountains, Tanzania

This Ph.D. thesis Participation or Further Exclusion? Contestations over Forest Conservation and Control in the East Usambara Mountains, Tanzania describes and analyses the shift in the prevailing discourse of forest and biodiversity conservation policies and strategies towards more participatory approaches in Tanzania, and the changes in the practises of resource control. I explore the scope for and limits to the different actors and groups who are considered to form the community, to participate in resource control, in a specific historical and socio-economic context. I analyse whether, how and to which extent the targets of such participatory conservation interventions have been able to affect the formal rules and practices of resource control, and explore their different responses and discursive and other strategies in relation to conservation efforts. I approach the problematic through exploring certain participatory conservation interventions and related negotiations between the local farmers, government officials and the external actors in the case of two protected forest reserves in the southern part of the East Usambaras, Tanzania. The study area belongs to the Eastern Arc Mountains that are valued globally and nationally for their high level of biodiversity and number of endemic and near endemic species. The theoretical approach draws from theorising on power, participation and conservation in anthropology of development and post-structuralist political ecology. The material was collected in three stages between 2003 and 2008 by using an ethnographic approach. I interviewed and observed the actors and their resource use and control practices at the local level, including the representatives of the villagers living close to the protected forests and the conservation agency, but also followed the selected processes and engaged with the non-local agencies involved in the conservation efforts in the East Usambaras. In addition, the more recent processes of change and the actors strategies in resource control were contextualised against the social and environmental history of the study area and the evolvement of institutions of natural resource control. My findings indicate that the discourse of participation that has emerged in global conservation policy debate within the past three decades, and is being institutionalised in the national policies in many countries, including Tanzania, has shaped the practices of forest conservation in the East Usambaras, although in a fragmented and uneven way. Instrumental interpretation of participation, in which it is to serve the goals of improving the control of the forest and making it more acceptable and efficient, has prevailed among the governmental actors and conservation organisations. Yet, there is variation between the different projects and actors promoting participatory conservation regarding the goals and means of participation, e.g. to which extent the local people are to be involved in decision-making. The actors representing communities also have their diverse agendas, understandings and experiences regarding the rationality, outcomes and benefits of being involved in forest control, making the practices of control fluid. The elements of the exclusive conservation thinking and practices co-exist with the more recent participatory processes, and continue to shape the understandings and strategies of the actors involved in resource control. The ideas and narratives of the different discourses are reproduced and selectively used by the parties involved. The idea of forest conservation is not resisted as such by most of the actors at local level, quite the opposite. However, the strict regulations and rules governing access to resources, such as valuable timber species, continue to be disputed by many. Furthermore, the history of control, such as past injustices related to conservation and unfulfilled promises, undermines the participation of certain social groups in resource control and benefit sharing. This also creates controversies in the practices of conservation, and fuels conflicts regarding the establishment of new protected areas. In spite of this, the fact that the representatives of the communities have been invited to the arenas where information is shared, and principles and conditions of forest control and benefit sharing are discussed and partly decided upon, has created expectations among the participants, and opened up opportunities for some of the local actors to enhance their own, and sometimes wider interests in relation to resource control and the related benefits. The local actors experiences of the previous government and other interventions strongly affect how they position themselves in relation to conservation interventions, and their responses and strategies. However, my findings also suggest, in a similar way to research conducted in some other protected areas, that the benefits of participation in conservation and resource control tend to accrue unevenly between different groups of local people, e.g. due to unequal access to information and differences in their initial resources and social position.

Suomalaisten yritysten vapaaehtoinen sosiaalinen vastuu : Sidosryhmäviitekehys yritysten ja ulkoisten sidosryhmien edustajien näkemyksissä

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) is no longer only an issue of companies but a concern shared by e.g. the European Union, the International Labour Organization, labour market organizations and many others. This thesis examines what kind of voluntary corporate social responsibility exceeding the minimum level set in the legislation can be expected from the Finnish companies. The research was based on the interviews of some representatives of Finnish companies and of external stakeholders. Earlier Finnish empirical research on the topic has solely analysed the stakeholder thinking and the ethics of the views of the company representatives. The views of the external stakeholders brought ht up a much more versatile perspective on the voluntary corporate social responsibility of the companies. That is the particular surplus value of this research. This research, founded on stakeholder thinking, evaluated what kind of starting points and ideas on responsibility the views of the representatives of the companies and the external stakeholders were based on the voluntary social responsibility. Furthermore, the research also investigated how their views about the corporate social responsibility indicated the benefits achieved on the cooperative actions with different partners - for example companies, communities and public administration. To fulfil the aims of the research, the following questions were used as part tasks in mapping the basic foundations and starting points expressed by the representatives of the companies and the external stakeholders: 1) How do laws, directions concerning social responsibility of companies, and opinions and demands of the stakeholders guide and affect the voluntary corporate social responsibility? 2) How can companies assume voluntary corporate social responsibility in addition to their core functions and without compromising their profitability, and how does, for example, the tightening competition affect the possibility of taking responsibility? 3) What kind of ethic and moral foundations is the corporate social responsibility based on? 4) What kind of roles can companies have in securing and promoting the well-being of citizens in Finland and on the global market as one subsystem of the society? The views on the voluntary corporate social responsibility of nine big companies, one medium-sized company and one small company, all considered responsible pioneer companies, were studied with surveys and half-structured theme interviews between 2003 and 2004. The research proceeded as a theory-bounded study. The empirical material and the previous stakeholder thinking theories (Takala 2000b, Vehkaperä 2003) guided the thesis and worked abductively in interplay with each other during the research process. (Tuomi, Sarajärvi 2002.) The aims and the methods of the research and the themes of the interviews were defined on the basis of that information. The aims of the research were surveyed qualitatively with the strategy of a multiple case study. Representatives from nine big peer companies and nine external stakeholders were interviewed with half-structured themes between 2004 and 2005. The external stakeholders and the peer companies were chosen with the "thinking" of theoretical replication by Yin, according to which the views of the representatives of those groups would differ from those of the pioneer companies and also from those of each others. The multiple case study supports analysing the internal cohesion of the views of different groups and comparing their differences, and it supports theoretical evaluation and theory-building as well. (Yin 2003.) Another reason for choosing the external stakeholders was their known cooperation with companies. The spoken argumentations of the company and stakeholder representatives on the voluntary social responsibility of the companies were analysed and interpreted in the first place with an analytic discourse analysis, and the argumentations were classified allusively into the stakeholder discourses in three of the part tasks. In the discourse analysis, argumentations of the speech is seen to be intervowen with cultural meanings. (Jokinen, Juhila 1999.) The views of the representatives of the pioneer companies and the external stakeholders were more stakeholder-orientated than the views of the representatives of the peer companies. For the most part, the voluntary corporate social responsibility was seemingly targeted on single, small cooperation projects of the companies and external stakeholders. The pioneer companies had more of those projects, and they were participating in the projects more actively than the peer companies were. The significant result in this research was the notion that, in particular, the representatives of the pioneer companies and external stakeholders did not consider employing and paying taxes to be enough of reciprocal corporate social responsibility. However, they still wanted to preserve the Finnish welfare model, and the interviewees did not wish major changes in the present legislation or the social agreements. According to this study, the voluntary corporate social responsibility is motivated by ethical utilitarianism which varied from very narrow to very wide in relation to benefits achieved by companies and stakeholders (Velasquez 2002, Lagerspetz 2004). Compared with the peer companies, more of the representatives of the pioneer companies and of external stakeholders estimated that companies in their decision-making and operations considered not only the advantages and the benefits of the owners and other internal stakeholders, but also those of the external stakeholders and of the whole society. However, all interviewees expressed more or less strongly that the economic responsibility guides the voluntary responsible actions of the companies in the first place. This kind of utilitarian foundation of behaviour appeared from this research was named as business-orientated company moral. This thesis also presents a new voluntary corporate social responsibility model with four variables on the stakeholder discourses and their distinctive characteristics. The utilitarian motivation of a company s behaviour on their operations has been criticized on the grounds that the end justifies the means. It has also been stated that it is impossible to evaluate the benefits of the utilitarian type of actions to the individuals and the society. It is expected however that companies for their part promote the material and immaterial well-being of the individuals on the global, national and local markets. The expectations are so strong that if companies do not take into account the ethical and moral values, they can possibly suffer significant financial losses. All stakeholders, especially consumers, can with their own choices promote the responsible behaviour of the companies. Key words: voluntary corporate social responsibility, external stakeholders, corporate citizenship, ethics and morality, utilitarianism, stakeholder discourses, welfare society, globalisation

"Elämää yhdellä siivellä lentäen" : Suomessa asuvien Chilen pakolaisten ja heidän jälkeläistensä historiatietoisuus

The starting point of this study was to find out how the historical consciousness manifest in conceptions and experiences of Chilean refugees and their descendants. The previous research of historical consciousness has shown that powerful experiences such as the revolution and being a refugee may have an effect on historical consciousness. The purpose of this study is to solve how those experiences in the past have influenced Chilean refugees and their descendant s interpretations of the present and expectations for the future. The research material was collected by interviewing four Chilean refugees that escaped to Finland in years 1973 1976 and four young adults who represent the second generation. All second generation interviewees were born in Finland and their other parent or both parents were Chilean refugees. The two groups were not in a family relation to each other. The empirical part of the research was made by qualitative methods. The research material was collected by the method of focused interview and it was analysed by the qualitative data analysis software Atlas.ti 6.0. Content analysis was the main research tool. The previous theory of historical consciousness and the study questions was used to create the seven categories that manifest historical consciousness. The seven categories were biographical memory, collective memory, experiences of living between two cultures, idea of man, the essence of history and the reason for living, value conceptions and expectations of the future. Content analysis was based on those categories. Subcategories were based on the research material and were created during the analysis. The results of this study were made up of categories. The study revealed that experiences of revolution and of being a refugee has a significant role in the historical consciousness of the Chilean refugees. It became evident in their biographical memory being separated in three parts, in their values and in the belief of possibility of an individual to govern her own life. The second generation was also exposed to their parent s experiences in the past. The collective trauma in their parent s past has been part of their life indirectly and has affected the way they think of themselves, their concepts and their place in the present world. The active and regular retrospection in Finland by Chilean adults and special Gabriela Mistral club activities has played a big part in the construction of their historical consciousness.

Search for standard model Higgs boson production in association with a W boson using a neural network discriminant at CDF

We present a search for standard model Higgs boson production in association with a W boson in proton-antiproton collisions at a center of mass energy of 1.96 TeV. The search employs data collected with the CDF II detector that correspond to an integrated luminosity of approximately 1.9 inverse fb. We select events consistent with a signature of a single charged lepton, missing transverse energy, and two jets. Jets corresponding to bottom quarks are identified with a secondary vertex tagging method, a jet probability tagging method, and a neural network filter. We use kinematic information in an artificial neural network to improve discrimination between signal and background compared to previous analyses. The observed number of events and the neural network output distributions are consistent with the standard model background expectations, and we set 95% confidence level upper limits on the production cross section times branching fraction ranging from 1.2 to 1.1 pb or 7.5 to 102 times the standard model expectation for Higgs boson masses from 110 to $150 GeV/c^2, respectively.

Global processes, local strategies : migration of educated Dominicans.

The aim of this thesis is to examine migration of educated Dominicans in light of global processes. Current global developments have resulted in increasingly global movements of people, yet people tend to come from certain places in large numbers rather than others. At the same time, international migration is increasingly selective, which shows in the disproportional number of educated migrants. This study discovers individual and societal motivations that explain why young educated Dominicans decide to migrate and return. The theoretical framework of this thesis underlines that migration is a dynamic process rooted in other global developments. Migratory movements should be seen as a result of interacting macro- and microstructures, which are linked by a number of intermediate mechanisms, meso-structures. The way individuals perceive opportunity structures concretises the way global developments mediate to the micro-level. The case of the Dominican Republic shows that there is a diversity of local responses to the world system, as Dominicans have produced their own unique historical responses to global changes. The thesis explains that Dominican migration is importantly conditioned by socioeconomic and educational background. Migration is more accessible for the educated middle class, because of the availability of better resources. Educated migrants also seem less likely to rely on networks to organize their migrations. The role of networks in migration differs by socioeconomic background on the one hand, and by the specific connections each individual has to current and previous migrants on the other hand. The personal and cultural values of the migrant are also pivotal. The central argument of this thesis is that a veritable culture of migration has evolved in the Dominican Republic. The actual economic, political and social circumstances have led many Dominicans to believe that there are better opportunities elsewhere. The globalisation of certain expectations on the one hand, and the development of the specifically Dominican feeling of ‘externalism’ on the other, have for their part given rise to the Dominican culture of migration. The study also suggests that the current Dominican development model encourages migration. Besides global structures, local structures are found to ve pivotal in determining how global processes are materialised in a specific place. The research for this thesis was conducted by using qualitative methodology. The focus of this thesis was on thematic interviews that reveal the subject’s point of view and give a fuller understanding of migration and mobility of the educated. The data was mainly collected during a field research phase in Santo Domingo, the Dominican Republic in December 2009 and January 2010. The principal material consists of ten thematic interviews held with educated Dominican current or former migrants. Four expert interviews, relevant empirical data, theoretical literature and newspaper articles were also comprehensively used.

Evaluating Option Pricing Models

This study evaluates three different time units in option pricing: trading time, calendar time and continuous time using discrete approximations (CTDA). The CTDA-time model partitions the trading day into 30-minute intervals, where each interval is given a weight corresponding to the historical volatility in the respective interval. Furthermore, the non-trading volatility, both overnight and weekend volatility, is included in the first interval of the trading day in the CTDA model. The three models are tested on market prices. The results indicate that the trading-time model gives the best fit to market prices in line with the results of previous studies, but contrary to expectations under non-arbitrage option pricing. Under non-arbitrage pricing, the option premium should reflect the cost of hedging the expected volatility during the option’s remaining life. The study concludes that the historical patterns in volatility are not fully accounted for by the market, rather the market prices options closer to trading time.

Unrealized expectations of jumps in volatility: An explanation to the low and time-varying predictive power of implied volatility

The low predictive power of implied volatility in forecasting the subsequently realized volatility is a well-documented empirical puzzle. As suggested by e.g. Feinstein (1989), Jackwerth and Rubinstein (1996), and Bates (1997), we test whether unrealized expectations of jumps in volatility could explain this phenomenon. Our findings show that expectations of infrequently occurring jumps in volatility are indeed priced in implied volatility. This has two important consequences. First, implied volatility is actually expected to exceed realized volatility over long periods of time only to be greatly less than realized volatility during infrequently occurring periods of very high volatility. Second, the slope coefficient in the classic forecasting regression of realized volatility on implied volatility is very sensitive to the discrepancy between ex ante expected and ex post realized jump frequencies. If the in-sample frequency of positive volatility jumps is lower than ex ante assessed by the market, the classic regression test tends to reject the hypothesis of informational efficiency even if markets are informationally effective.

Owners' Way or the Highway: Short-term Expectations and Owner Impatience

Increased media exposure to layoffs and corporate quarterly financial reporting have created arguable a common perception – especially favored by the media itself – that the companies have been forced to improve their financial performance from quarter to quarter. Academically the relevant question is whether the companies themselves feel that they are exposed to short-term pressure to perform even if it means that they have to compromise company’s long-term future. This paper studies this issue using results from a survey conducted among the 500 largest companies in Finland. The results show that companies in general feel moderate short-term pressure, with reasonable dispersion across firms. There seems to be a link between the degree of pressure felt, and the firm’s ownership structure, i.e. we find support for the existence of short-term versus long-term owners. We also find significant ownership related differences, in line with expectations, in how such short-term pressure is reflected in actual decision variables such as the investment criteria used.

Puunoston kehittäminen Stora Enso Metsän Helsingin palvelupisteessä

The operation environment in the roundwood trade in Finland in the 1990’s include several changes. They are changes in the structure of non-industrial private forest (NIPF) ownership, forest taxation, in forest legislation, in price recommendation agreement, diminishing resources of forestry extension services, etc. At the same time, the roundwood demand has been rising. All these developments cause uncertainty in wood procurement organisations, and call for research to find out how to adapt into the changing environment. The objective of this study is to produce information for roundwood purchasing planning and cus-tomer satisfaction management to be used by Stora Enso Metsä Customer Service, Helsinki. For this pur-pose, data needs to be gathered about the urban NIPFs and their forest estates, behaviour related to forestry and timber-selling, customer satisfaction in their latest timber selling transaction, and their opinions about Enso’s new customer service office and its service concept. To fulfil the objective of the study, a NIPF -owner -survey (N=1064, response rate 39,7%) was con-ducted in October 1998-January 1999. The sample was made on the basis of the marketing database of Stora Enso Oyj Forest Customer Service in Helsinki. In planning the frame of reference of the empirical study, the model of service quality by Grönroos was applied. The following aspects were included in the 7-page questionnaire: demographic, sosio-economic and forest estate background, relation to the forest service supply, behaviour related to forestry, timber-selling motives and behaviour, last contact organisation and its image in forestry business, expectations and percep-tions in the latest timber-selling transactions, and behavioural intentions. The results revealed that the share of women, pensioners and academically educated people among forest owners was quite high. The majority of the forest estates of the metropolitan forest owners were situ-ated in the provinces of South Finland and East Finland. The average forest estate area was considerably smaller than in a previous study. Economic and recreational objectives were most important in the use of forests. Forest Associations were involved in half of the roundwood sales transactions of the respondents in the metropolitan area. The wood quantity of transactions was considerably higher than the average in the whole country. Bank-organised forest-related activities, taxation infos and trips to the forest were the most popular activities. Among the services, silvicultural advices were needed mostly and stub treatment least. Brochure material related to stumpage timber sales and taxation were considered most important compared to material related to delivery sales. The service expectations were at highest for women and they were less satisfied with the service than men. 2nd and 3rd generation residents of the metropolitan area thought about the new customer service concept more positively than the 1st generation residents. Internet users under 60 years thought more positively about new satellite picture-based woodlot search concept. Cross-tabulation of factor scores against background variables indicated that women with relatively low education level a greater need to sell roundwood than entrepreneurs, white-collar workers and directors, and Internet users. Suspiciousness towards timber procurement organisations was relatively strong among women and those whose forest income share of the total income was either null or over 20 %. The average customer satisfaction score was negative in all nine questions. Statistical differences be-tween different companies did not exist in the average satisfaction scores. Stora Enso’s Helsinki forest cus-tomer service could choose the ability to purchase all timber grades as its competitive advantage. Out of nine service dimension included in the questionnaire, in this particular service dimension, Enso’s Helsinki forest customer service’s score exceeded most all organisations’ average customer satisfaction score. On the basis of importance – performance matrix, advice and quidance could have been provided more to the forest owners in their latest timber–selling transaction.

Talouskäsitysten vaikutus hallituksen suosioon Puolassa 2006–2007

Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan äänestäjien talouskäsitysten vaikutusta hallituksen suosioon Puolassa vuosina 2006 ja 2007. Tutkimusasetelma juontaa juurensa poliittisten suhdannevaihteluiden teoriaan, jonka mukaan poliitikot pyrkivät manipuloimaan taloutta vaalien alla tullakseen uudelleen valituiksi. Vastuullisuushypoteesin mukaan äänestäjät palkitsevat poliitikot hyvästä taloustilanteesta. Näin ollen mikäli äänestäjät ovat tyytyväisiä talouteen he äänestävät hallitusta. Mikäli eivät, he äänestävät oppositiota. Miten äänestäjät sitten tekevät arvionsa taloudesta? Tutkielmassa selvitetään vaikuttiko äänestäjien mielipiteisiin käsitys nykyisestä vai tulevaisuuden taloustilanteesta. Käsitys nykyisestä taloustilanteesta perustuu havaintoihin jo toteutuneesta talouspolitiikasta. Tätä käsitystä kutsutaan retrospektiiviseksi näkemykseksi. Prospektiiviset talousnäkemykset koostuvat näkemyksestä ja odotuksista talouden tulevasta tilasta ja uskosta hallituksen kykyyn tarjota paras vaihtoehto suotuisalle talouskehitykselle. Aikaulottuvuuden lisäksi tutkielmassa testataan, vaikuttaako äänestäjiin enemmän heidän oma taloustilanteensa vai näkemys yleisestä talouden tilanteesta. Mikäli hallituksen suosio perustuu näkemyksiin henkilökohtaisen talouden tilasta, ovat äänestäjät egotrooppisia. Mikäli kannatuspäätös perustuu näkemykseen kansantalouden tilasta, ovat äänestäjät puolestaan sosiotrooppisia. Aineistona tutkielmassa käytetään uusinta saatavilla olevaa Puolan mielipidetiedustelun (Centrum Badania Opinii Publicznej) keräämää kyselyaineistoa vuosilta 2006 ja 2007. Tutkielmassa on yhdistetty kyselyaineistot 22:n kuukauden ajalta. Aineistoa on analysoitu logistisen regressioanalyysin menetelmin. Tutkielman perusteella talousnäkemyksistä suurin vaikutus hallituksen suosioon on äänestäjien näkemyksillä kansantalouden tulevaisuuden tilasta. Henkilökohtaisen talouden osalta positiiviset tulevaisuudennäkymät vaikuttavat positiivisesti myös hallituksen kannatukseen. Retrospektiivinen arvio henkilökohtaisesta taloudesta toimii kuitenkin teorian vastaisesti; oman taloudellisen tilanteen hyväksi arvioineiden todennäköisyys kannatta hallitusta oli pienempää kuin niillä, jotka arvioivat oman taloustilanteensa huonoksi. Kontrollimuuttujiksi valittiin joukko aiemmassa tutkimuksessa äänestyskäyttäytymiseen Puolassa vaikuttaneita tekijöitä. Näitä olivat ikä, sukupuoli, koulutus, asuinpaikka, näkemys työllisyystilanteesta, ideologinen sijoittuminen oikeisto–vasemmisto-akselilla sekä uskonnollisuus. Kontrollimuuttujista merkitseviksi osoittautuivat uskonnollisuus, oikeisto–vasemmisto-ideologia, koulutus, asuinpaikka sekä ikä. Kun edellä mainitut taustamuuttujat on kontrolloitu, taloustekijät selittävät noin viidesosan hallituksen kannatuksen todennäköisyyden vaihtelusta.

Do Households Have Rational Expectations on Future Consumption? Evidence from the Finnish Consumer Survey

Ever since its initial introduction some fifty years ago, the rational expectations paradigm has dominated the way economic theory handles uncertainty. The main assertion made by John F. Muth (1961), seen by many as the father of the paradigm, is that expectations of rational economic agents should essentially be equal to the predictions of relevant economic theory, since rational agents should use information available to them in an optimal way. This assumption often has important consequences on the results and interpretations of the models where it is applied. Although the rational expectations assumption can be applied to virtually any economic theory, the focus in this thesis is on macroeconomic theories of consumption, especially the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis proposed by Robert E. Hall in 1978. The much-debated theory suggests that, assuming that agents have rational expectations on their future income, consumption decisions should follow a random walk, and the best forecast of future consumption level is the current consumption level. Then, changes in consumption are unforecastable. This thesis constructs an empirical test for the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis using Finnish Consumer Survey data as well as various Finnish macroeconomic data. The data sample covers the years 1995–2010. Consumer survey data may be interpreted to directly represent household expectations, which makes it an interesting tool for this particular test. The variable to be predicted is the growth of total household consumption expenditure. The main empirical result is that the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), a balance figure computed from the most important consumer survey responses, does have statistically significant predictive power over the change in total consumption expenditure. The history of consumption expenditure growth itself, however, fails to predict its own future values. This indicates that the CCI contains some information that the history of consumption decisions does not, and that the consumption decisions are not optimal in the theoretical context. However, when conditioned on various macroeconomic variables, the CCI loses its predictive ability. This finding suggests that the index is merely a (partial) summary of macroeconomic information, and does not contain any significant private information on consumption intentions of households not directly deductible from the objective economic variables. In conclusion, the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis is strongly rejected by the empirical results in this thesis. This result is in accordance with most earlier studies conducted on the topic.