Information Visualization in a Business Decision Support System

Information visualization is a process of constructing a visual presentation of abstract quantitative data. The characteristics of visual perception enable humans to recognize patterns, trends and anomalies inherent in the data with little effort in a visual display. Such properties of the data are likely to be missed in a purely text-based presentation. Visualizations are therefore widely used in contemporary business decision support systems. Visual user interfaces called dashboards are tools for reporting the status of a company and its business environment to facilitate business intelligence (BI) and performance management activities. In this study, we examine the research on the principles of human visual perception and information visualization as well as the application of visualization in a business decision support system. A review of current BI software products reveals that the visualizations included in them are often quite ineffective in communicating important information. Based on the principles of visual perception and information visualization, we summarize a set of design guidelines for creating effective visual reporting interfaces.

Arvot intialaissyntyisten maahanmuuttajien akkulturaatioprosessissa

The study examined immigrants´ attitudes towards acculturation, in other words the social and cultural changes that take place in the adaptation process. The perspective of acculturation studies was also expanded by examining immigrants´ cultural values and their experiences of majority´s expectations. In addition, special interest was directed to the relations between acculturation attitudes and values and both factors´ relevance on psychological well-being. Indian born immigrants were selected as subjects as they are one of the fastest growing ethnic minorities in Finland. This minority has not been included in immigration studies previously. The seventy-five immigrants that participated as subjects represent a highly educated subgroup of Indian born immigrants. The study was carried out with posted questionnaires. Most of the subjects received an inquiry of their motivation to participate by e-mail or phone before the postal questionnaire. The results were in line with previous studies in Finland as the attitudes emphasising cultural integration were dominant. However, attitudes towards marriage, reflecting deeper and less flexible parts of culture, were dominated by separation motives. Immigrants´ perceptions of majority´s expectations reflected partly the real assimilation wishes demonstrated in previous studies. Against hypotheses, discrepancies between acculturation attitudes and experiences of majority´s expectations did not predict immigrants´ psychological well-being in a clear way. The highly educated Indian born immigrants emphasised self-direction and universalism in their values. This separates them from the traditional cultural values of India. The hypotheses made of the predictive relations between values and acculturation attitudes were partly confirmed. Also, the assumptions concerning both the stress buffering role of collectivistic values and the positive effect of achievement values on feelings of mastery were confirmed. Despite the limitations in the data, this study strengthens the view that cultural and personal values play a significant role in immigrants´ adaptation process. Information about values can benefit individuals making hard decisions and coping with cultural change as well as officials modifying Finnish immigration policy and planning the support system for immigrants.

Suunnittelunäkemys metsäorganisaatioissa ja sen vaikutus tietojärjestelmälle asetettaviin vaatimuksiin

Department of Forest Resource Management in the University of Helsinki has in years 2004?2007 carried out so-called SIMO -project to develop a new generation planning system for forest management. Project parties are organisations doing most of Finnish forest planning in government, industry and private owned forests. Aim of this study was to find out the needs and requirements for new forest planning system and to clarify how parties see targets and processes in today's forest planning. Representatives responsible for forest planning in each organisation were interviewed one by one. According to study the stand-based system for managing and treating forests continues in the future. Because of variable data acquisition methods with different accuracy and sources, and development of single tree interpretation, more and more forest data is collected without field work. The benefits of using more specific forest data also calls for use of information units smaller than tree stand. In Finland the traditional way to arrange forest planning computation is divided in two elements. After updating the forest data to present situation every stand unit's growth is simulated with different alternative treatment schedule. After simulation, optimisation selects for every stand one treatment schedule so that the management program satisfies the owner's goals in the best possible way. This arrangement will be maintained in the future system. The parties' requirements to add multi-criteria problem solving, group decision support methods as well as heuristic and spatial optimisation into system make the programming work more challenging. Generally the new system is expected to be adjustable and transparent. Strict documentation and free source code helps to bring these expectations into effect. Variable growing models and treatment schedules with different source information, accuracy, methods and the speed of processing are supposed to work easily in system. Also possibilities to calibrate models regionally and to set local parameters changing in time are required. In future the forest planning system will be integrated in comprehensive data management systems together with geographic, economic and work supervision information. This requires a modular method of implementing the system and the use of a simple data transmission interface between modules and together with other systems. No major differences in parties' view of the systems requirements were noticed in this study. Rather the interviews completed the full picture from slightly different angles. In organisation the forest management is considered quite inflexible and it only draws the strategic lines. It does not yet have a role in operative activity, although the need and benefits of team level forest planning are admitted. Demands and opportunities of variable forest data, new planning goals and development of information technology are known. Party organisations want to keep on track with development. One example is the engagement in extensive SIMO-project which connects the whole field of forest planning in Finland.

Reformin implementaatio - Michael Fullanin teoriaan perustuva muutosteoreettisten tekijöiden sisällönanalyyttinen tarkastelu Kelpo-kehittämistoiminnan kunnallisten koordinaattoreiden puheessa

The educational reform, launched in Finland in 2008, concerns the implementation of the Special Education Strategy (Opetusministeriö 2007) under an improvement initiative called Kelpo. One of the main proposed alterations of the Strategy relates to the support system of comprehensive school pupils. The existed two-level model (general and special support) is to be altered by the new three-level model (general, intensified and special support). There are 233 municipalities involved nationwide in the Kelpo initiative, each of which has a municipal coordinator as a national delegate. The Centre for Educational Assessment [the Centre] at the University of Helsinki, led by Professor Jarkko Hautamäki, carries out the developmental assessment of the initiative’s developmental process. As a part of that assessment the Centre interviewed 151 municipal coordinators in November 2008. This thesis considers the Kelpo initiative from Michael Fullan’s change theory’s aspect. The aim is to identify the change theoretical factors in the speech of the municipal coordinators interviewed by the Centre, and to constitute a view of what the crucial factors in the reform implementation process are. The appearance of the change theoretical factors, in the coordinators’ speech, and the meaning of these appearances are being considered from the change process point of view. The Centre collected the data by interviewing the municipal coordinators (n=151) in small groups of 4-11 people. The interview method was based on Vesala and Rantanen’s (2007) qualitative attitude survey method which was adapted and evolved for the Centre’s developmental assessment by Hilasvuori. The method of the analysis was a qualitative theory-based content analysis, processed using the Atlas.ti software. The theoretical frame of reference was grounded on Fullan’s change theory and the analysis was based on three change theoretical categories: implementation, cooperation and perspectives in the change process. The analysis of the interview data revealed spoken expressions in the coordinators’ speech which were either positively or negatively related to the theoretical categories. On the grounds of these change theoretical relations the existence of the change process was observed. The crucial factors of reform implementation were found, and the conclusion is that the encounter of the new reform-based and already existing strategies in school produces interface challenges. These challenges are particularly confronted in the context of the implementation of the new three-level support model. The interface challenges are classified as follows: conceptual, method-based, action-based and belief-based challenges. Keywords: reform, implementation, change process, Michael Fullan, Kelpo, intensified support, special support

The influence of school smoking policy and school prevention programs on the smoking behaviour of high school students in Prince Edward Island, Canada

The aim of the study was to examine the influence of school smoking policy and school smoking prevention programs on the smoking behaviour of students in high schools in Prince Edward Island using the School Health Action Planning Evaluation System (SHAPES). A total sample included 13,131 observations of students in grades 10-12 in ten high schools in Prince Edward Island over three waves of data collection (1999, 2000, and 2001). Changes in prevalence of smoking and factors influencing smoking behaviour were analyzed using descriptive statistics and Chi-Square tests. Multi-level logistic regression analyses were used to examine how both school and student characteristics were associated with smoking behaviour (I, II, III, IV). Since students were located within schools, a basic 2-level nested structure was used in which individual students (level 1) were nested within schools (level 2). For grade 12 students, the combination of both school policies and programs was not associated with the risk of smoking and the presence of the new policy was not associated with decreased risk of smoking, unless there were clear rules in place (I). For the grade 10 study, (II) schools with both policies and programs were not associated with decreased risk of smoking. However, the smoking behaviour of older students (grade 12) at a school was associated with younger students’ (grade 10) smoking behaviour. Students first enrolled in a high school in grade 9, rather than grade 10, were at increased risk of occasional smoking. For students who transitioned from grade 10 to 12 (III), close friends smoking had a substantial influence on smoking behaviour for both males and females (III). Having one or more close friends who smoke (Odds Ratio (OR) = 37.46; 95% CI = 19.39 to 72.36), one or more smokers in the home (OR = 2.35; 95% CI = 1.67 to 3.30) and seeing teachers and staff smoking on or near school property (OR=1.78; 95% CI = 1.13 to 2.80), were strongly associated with increased risk of smoking for grade 12 students. Smoking behaviour increased for both junior (Group 1) and senior (Group 2) students (IV). Group 1 students indicated a greater decrease in smoking behaviour and factors influencing smoking behaviour compared to those of Group 2. Students overestimating the percentage of youth their age who smoke was strongly associated with increased likelihood of smoking. Smoking rates showed a decreasing trend (1999, 2000, and 2001). However, policies and programs alone were not successful in influencing smoking behaviour of youth. Rather, factors within the students and schools contextual environment influenced smoking behaviour. Comprehensive approaches are required for school-based tobacco prevention interventions. Keywords: schools, policy, programs, smoking prevention, adolescents Subject Terms: school-based programming, public health, health promotion

Pengarna eller livet? : En kvalitativ och longitudinell studie om långtidsarbetslösa unga i ett aktörsperspektiv

Your money or your life? A qualitative follow-up study of the young unemployed from an actor perspective is a qualitative and longitudinal study following 36 unemployed young people in Helsinki over a span of ten years. The purpose of the study is to shed light on how a few young people view employment/unemployment and their lives and future, how they as unemployed perceive their encounters with society, and how society supports them. Four so-called key informants were followed at a finer level of empirical detail. They were chosen for the thematic interviews because of their different personalities, starting points and preferences. Although some differences were expected, what the results show is quite striking. The individual stories raise a number of questions about differences between young people, about society s view of the young unemployed, and about the principles behind the so-called activation policy and how society s support is distributed. The key informants descriptions underline that the group young unemployed does not consist of individuals who are alike but that life is complex, that paid work and unemployment can be perceived very differently, and that background and unofficial support can have consequences for self-perception and for ways of looking at the future, vocational choices, paid work and activation policy. Margaret S. Archer s theory of Morphogenesis and Barbara Cruikshank s theory of constructing democracies compose the study s theoretical framework. The key informants stories give a picture of a formal support system that, even though it puts part of the responsibility for unemployment on the individuals themselves, in the name of fairness and equality, treats them in an impersonal way, not giving their personal situation and wishes much weight. As a consequence, those who share the dominant values of society do well, while others who do not are faced with difficulties. The bigger the gap between society s and the individual s values, the bigger the risk to be met by little understanding and by penalties. And vice versa: Those who initially have the right values and know how to deal with authorities get heard and their opinions get accepted. The informants ask for a more personal encounter, which could improve both the atmosphere and the clients experiences of being heard. Still the risk of having a more individualistic system should be addressed, as a new system might generate new winners, but just as well give new losers. Finally, we have to ask if the so-called activation policy is looking for answers primarily to a macro-level problem on the micro-level. If it does not produce more jobs, its support for the unemployed will be insignificant. It is not enough to think about what to do at the grassroots level to make the system more functional and support job-seeking. If the current rate of unemployment endures, the quality of life of the unemployed should be addressed. A first step could be taken by placing less guilt on the unemployed. Instead of talking about activating the unemployed, discussion should be targeted at removing structural impediments to employment. If we want to have less polarisation between the those with paid work and those without, who often struggle with low incomes, we need to include the macro-level in the discussion. What does high unemployment mean in a work-based society, where the individual s self-perception and important social forms of support are linked to labour income? And what can be done at the macro-level to change this undesirable condition at the micro-level? Keywords: Unemployment, Youth, Public interventions, Activation policy, Individual actors, Qualitative, Longitudinal, Holistic, Helsinki, Finland

Just say no? The influence of personal goals, beliefs, psychosocial adjustment, and parental relationships in drug use by adolescents

The study in its entirety focused on factors related to adolescents decisions concerning drug use. The term drug use is taken here to include the use of tobacco products, alcohol, narcotics, and other addictive substances. First, the reasons given for drug use (attributions) were investigated. Secondly, the influence of personal goals, the beliefs involved in decision making, psychosocial adjustment including body image and involvement with peers, and parental relationships on drug use were studied. Two cohorts participated in the study. In 1984, a questionnaire on reasons for drug use was administered to a sample of adolescents aged 14-16 (N=396). A further questionnaire was administered to another sample of adolescents aged 14-16 (N=488) in 1999. The results for both cohorts were analyzed in Articles I and II. In Articles III and IV further analysis was carried out on the second cohort (N=488). The research report presented here provides a synthesis of all four articles, together with material from a further analysis. In a comparison of the two cohorts it was found that the attributions for drug use had changed considerably over the intervening fifteen-year period. In relation to alcohol and narcotics use an increase was found in reasons involving inner subjective experiences, with mention of the good feeling and fun resulting from alcohol and narcotics use. In addition, the goals of alcohol consumption were increasingly perceived as drinking to get drunk, and for its own sake. The attributions for the adolescents own smoking behavior were quite different from the attributions for smoking by others. The attributions were only weakly influenced by the participants gender or by their smoking habits, either in 1984 or 1999. In relation to participants own smoking, the later questionnaire elicited more mention of inner subjective experiences involving "good feeling. In relation to the perceived reasons for other people s smoking, it elicited more responses connected with the notion of "belonging. In the second sample, the results indicated that the levels of body satisfaction among adolescent girls are lower than those among adolescent boys. Overall, dissatisfaction with one's physical appearance seemed to relate to drug use. Girls were also found to engage in more discussions than boys; this applied to (i) discussion with peers (concerning both intimate and general matters), and (ii) discussion with parents (concerning general matters). However, more than a quarter of the boys (out of the entire population) reported only low intimacy with both parents and peers. If both drinking and smoking were considered, it seemed that girls in particular who reported drinking and smoking also reported high intimacy with parents and peers. Boys who reported drinking and smoking reported only medium intimacy with parents and peers. In addition, having an intimate relationship with one's peers was associated with a greater tendency to drink purely in order to get drunk. Overall, the results seemed to suggest that drug use is connected with a close relationship with peers and (surprisingly) with a close relationship with parents. Nevertheless, there were also indications that to some extent peer relationships can also protect adolescents from smoking and alcohol use. The results, which underline the complexity of adolescent drug use, are taken up in the Discussion section. It may be that body image and/or other identity factors play a more prominent role in all drug use than has previously been acknowledged. It does appear that in the course of planning support campaigns for adolescents at risk of drug use, we should focus more closely on individuals and their inner world. More research on this field is clearly needed, and therefore some ideas for future research are also presented.

Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.

Theorizing the Nature of Reflection

For the past decades reflection has been the buzzword of adult and higher education. Reflection is facilitated in many practices and there is abundant research on the issue. Despite the popularity of the concept, the reasons why bringing about reflection in educational practices is difficult remain unclear. The prevailing theories inform of the process in its ideal form. However, to a great extent, they fail to offer conceptual tools for understanding and working with the actualities of reflection. The aim of the doctoral thesis was to explore the challenges and prerequisites of reflection in order to theorize the nature of reflection. By the term reflection it is here referred to becoming aware of and questioning the assumptions that orient our thinking, feelings and actions. The doctoral thesis consists of five studies that approach these questions from different viewpoints and within different contexts. The methods involve both a philosophical and an empirical approach. This multifaceted approach embodies the aim of both gaining a more thorough grasp of the phenomenon and to develop the methodology of researching reflection. The theory building is based on conceptual analysis and rational reconstruction (see Davia 1998; Habermas 1979; Rorty1984) of Mezirow s (1981; 1991; 2000; 2009) theory of transformative learning. In order to explore the aspects which, based on the analysis, appeared insufficiently considered within Mezirow s theory, Damasio s (1994; 1999; 2003; 2010) theory on emotions and consciousness as well as Clausewitz s (1985) view on friction are used as complementary theories. Empirical analyses are used in dialogue with the theoretical, in order to challenge and refine the emerging theorization. Reflection is examined in three different contexts; regarding university teachers pedagogical growth, involuntarily childless women recovering from a life-event crisis, and soldiers preparing to act in chaotic situations of the battlefield as well as recovering from it. The choice of these contexts is based on Mezirow s notion of disorienting dilemma as a trigger for reflection. This notion indicates that reflection may more naturally emerge in association to life-event crises or other cumulative sets of instances, which bring our worldview and beliefs under question. Nevertheless, reflection is often being promoted in educational contexts in which the trigger conditions may not readily prevail. These contextual issues as well as the differences between the facilitated and non-facilitated contexts have not, however, been considered in detail within the research on reflection (or transformative learning). The doctoral thesis offers a new perspective into reflection which, as a further development on Mezirow s transformative learning theory, theorizes the nature of reflection. The developed theory explicates the prerequisites and challenges to reflection. The theory suggests that the challenges of reflection are fundamentally connected to the way the biological life-support system affects our thinking through emotions. While depicting the mechanisms that function as a counterforce to reflection, the developed theory also opens a perspective for considering possibilities for carrying out reflection, and suggests ways to locate and deal with the assumptions to be reflected on. The basic dynamic of the challenges to reflection was explicated by conceptually bridging the gap between Mezirow s and Damasio s theories, through exploring the connections between the meaning perspective and the biological functions of emotions. The concepts of comfort zone and edge-emotions were formed so as to depict the emotional orientation of our thinking, as part of the explanation of the nature of reflection.

REHTORIT PORTINVARTIJOINA : sekä miten rehtoreiden kertomuksista muodostuu pääkaupunkiseudun Tehostetun ja erityisen tuen kehittämisverkoston tarina

Research objectives. The Special Education Strategy, the legislative change based on it, and the change in the Finnish National Core Curriculum for Pre-primary and Basic Education build the background for this study. An improvement initiative called KELPO was founded in 2008 to implement a new three-level support system in municipalities. To support this initiative, the Network of Intensified and Special Support in the Metropolitan Area was founded in 2010. The Network consists of 22 pilot schools from four metropolitan municipalities and the Centre for Educational Assessment at the University of Helsinki that carries out the developmental assessment of the initiative. The objective of my study was to form an overall view of the functioning of the Network. The data included interviews of 20 principals of the schools belonging to the Network. The interviews were conducted by the Centre for Educational Assessment in the autumn of 2010. The research question is: What do principals speak about the networking done inside and between the municipalities? Methods. I received the data as already transcribed for my use. I researched it using a narrative research approach. As a method I used both thematic reading and classifying narratives by the holistic-content. These methods belong under the analyze of narratives. I collected the narratives from the principals under themes that arose from the data delimited by my research question. The narrative analysis materialized by writing the research story, as a new story was built by the principals stories theme by theme. The classification of the narratives by the holistic-content method was realized according to what kind of a gatekeeper s role each principal had. With a gatekeeper I here mean the intermediary role of a principal between the school and outside world. In addition, I used the analysis of interactive production of the narrative when applicable. Results and conclusions. Explicit features in the story of the Network were the principals at least partial uncertainty of the purpose of the networking, lack of time and resources, changing of initiatives, and lack of continuity. Positive narratives about ownership and empowerment could also be found. Nonetheless, many of the preconditions for success described by the school reform and school networking theories were not fulfilled. According to the collective story, there was no shared goal or purpose, and nor were the needs of autonomy, competence, and relatedness fulfilled. Three different kinds of gatekeepers were found in the data: The Exemplary ones, The Survivors and The Losers. The distinguishing factor turned out to be sharing of information at school. Based on the narratives, the schools with principals taking care of sharing information were the most active in partaking in networking.

Strike Hard, Strike Sure - Operation Musketeer : British Military Planning during the Suez Crisis, 1956

This study analyses British military planning and actions during the Suez Crisis in 1956. It seeks to find military reasons for the change of concepts during the planning and compares these reasons with the tactical doctrines of the time. The thesis takes extensive advantage of military documents preserved in the National Archives, London. In order to expand the understanding of the exchange of views during the planning process, the private papers of high ranking military officials have also been consulted. French military documents preserved in the Service Historique de la Defence, Paris, have provided an important point of comparison. The Suez Crisis caught the British armed forces in the middle of a transition phase. The main objective of the armed forces was to establish a credible deterrence against the Soviet Union. However, due to overseas commitments the Middle East playing a paramount role because of its economic importance the armed forces were compelled to also prepare for Limited War and the Cold War. The armed forces were not fully prepared to meet this demand. The Middle Eastern garrison was being re-organised after the withdrawal from the Canal Base and the concept for a strategic reserve was unimplemented. The tactical doctrines of the time were based on experiences from the Second World War. As a result, the British view of amphibious operations and the subsequent campaigns emphasised careful planning, mastery of the sea and the air, sufficient superiority in numbers and firepower, centralised command and extensive administrative preparations. The British military had realized that Nasser could nationalise the Suez Canal and prepared an outline plan to meet this contingency. Although the plan was nothing more than a concept, it was accepted as a basis for further planning when the Canal was nationalised at the end of July. This plan was short-lived. The nominated Task Force Commanders shifted the landing site from Port Said to Alexandria because it enabled faster expansion of the bridgehead. In addition, further operations towards Cairo the hub of Nasser s power would be easier to conduct. The operational concept can be described as being traditional and was in accordance with the amphibious warfare doctrine. This plan was completely changed at the beginning of September. Apparently, General Charles Keightley, the Commander-in-Chief, and the Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee developed the idea of prolonged aerial operations. The essence of the concept was to break the Egyptian will to resist by attacking the oil facilities, the transportation system and the armed forces. This victory through air concept would be supported by carefully planned psychological operations. This concept was in accordance with the Royal Air Force doctrine, which promoted a bomber offensive against selected target categories. General Keightley s plan was accepted despite suspicions at every planning level. The Joint Planning Staff and the Task Force Commanders opposed the concept from the beginning to the end because of its unpredictability. There was no information that suggested the bombing would persuade the Egyptians to submit. This problem was worsened by the fact that British intelligence was unable to provide reliable strategic information. The Task Force Commanders, who were responsible for the tactical plans, were not able to change Keightley s mind, but the concept was expanded to include a traditional amphibious assault on Port Said due to their resistance. The bombing campaign was never tested as the Royal Air Force was denied authorisation to destroy the transportation and oil targets. The Chiefs of Staff and General Keightley were too slow to realise that the execution of the plan depended on the determination of the Prime Minister. However, poor health, a lack of American and domestic support and the indecisiveness of the military had ruined Eden s resolve. In the end, a very traditional amphibious assault, which was bound to succeed at the tactical level but fail at the strategic level, was launched against Port Said.

Uncertainty in forest simulators and forest planning systems

The forest simulator is a computerized model for predicting forest growth and future development as well as effects of forest harvests and treatments. The forest planning system is a decision support tool, usually including a forest simulator and an optimisation model, for finding the optimal forest management actions. The information produced by forest simulators and forest planning systems is used for various analytical purposes and in support of decision making. However, the quality and reliability of this information can often be questioned. Natural variation in forest growth and estimation errors in forest inventory, among other things, cause uncertainty in predictions of forest growth and development. This uncertainty stemming from different sources has various undesirable effects. In many cases outcomes of decisions based on uncertain information are something else than desired. The objective of this thesis was to study various sources of uncertainty and their effects in forest simulators and forest planning systems. The study focused on three notable sources of uncertainty: errors in forest growth predictions, errors in forest inventory data, and stochastic fluctuation of timber assortment prices. Effects of uncertainty were studied using two types of forest growth models, individual tree-level models and stand-level models, and with various error simulation methods. New method for simulating more realistic forest inventory errors was introduced and tested. Also, three notable sources of uncertainty were combined and their joint effects on stand-level net present value estimates were simulated. According to the results, the various sources of uncertainty can have distinct effects in different forest growth simulators. The new forest inventory error simulation method proved to produce more realistic errors. The analysis on the joint effects of various sources of uncertainty provided interesting knowledge about uncertainty in forest simulators.

Owner-driven decision support in holding-specific forest planning

Socio-economic and demographic changes among family forest owners and demands for versatile forestry decision aid motivated this study, which sought grounds for owner-driven forest planning. Finnish family forest owners’ forest-related decision making was analyzed in two interview-based qualitative studies, the main findings of which were surveyed quantitatively. Thereafter, a scheme for adaptively mixing methods in individually tailored decision support processes was constructed. The first study assessed owners’ decision-making strategies by examining varying levels of the sharing of decision-making power and the desire to learn. Five decision-making modes – trusting, learning, managing, pondering, and decisive – were discerned and discussed against conformable decision-aid approaches. The second study conceptualized smooth communication and assessed emotional, practical, and institutional boosters of and barriers to such smoothness in communicative decision support. The results emphasize the roles of trust, comprehension, and contextual services in owners’ communicative decision making. In the third study, a questionnaire tool to measure owners’ attitudes towards communicative planning was constructed by using trusting, learning, and decisive dimensions. Through a multivariate analysis of survey data, three owner groups were identified as fusions of the original decision-making modes: trusting learners (53%), decisive learners (27%), and decisive managers (20%). Differently weighted communicative services are recommended for these compound wishes. The findings of the studies above were synthesized in a form of adaptive decision analysis (ADA), which allows and encourages the decision-maker (owner) to make deliberate choices concerning the phases of a decision aid (planning) process. The ADA model relies on adaptability and feedback management, which foster smooth communication with the owner and (inter-)organizational learning of the planning institution(s). The summarized results indicate that recognizing the communication-related amenity values of family forest owners may be crucial in developing planning and extension services. It is therefore recommended that owners, root-level planners, consultation professionals, and pragmatic researchers collaboratively continue to seek stable change.

Private and municipal forests and the forestry planning system in Japan - trends and problems after World War II.

XVIII IUFRO World Congress, Ljubljana 1986.