Do Measurement Errors in GDP Announcements Cause Output Fluctuations?

This thesis studies empirically whether measurement errors in aggregate production statistics affect sentiment and future output. Initial announcements of aggregate production are subject to measurement error, because many of the data required to compile the statistics are produced with a lag. This measurement error can be gauged as the difference between the latest revised statistic and its initial announcement. Assuming aggregate production statistics help forecast future aggregate production, these measurement errors are expected to affect macroeconomic forecasts. Assuming agents’ macroeconomic forecasts affect their production choices, these measurement errors should affect future output through sentiment. This thesis is primarily empirical, so the theoretical basis, strategic complementarity, is discussed quite briefly. However, it is a model in which higher aggregate production increases each agent’s incentive to produce. In this circumstance a statistical announcement which suggests aggregate production is high would increase each agent’s incentive to produce, thus resulting in higher aggregate production. In this way the existence of strategic complementarity provides the theoretical basis for output fluctuations caused by measurement mistakes in aggregate production statistics. Previous empirical studies suggest that measurement errors in gross national product affect future aggregate production in the United States. Additionally it has been demonstrated that measurement errors in the Index of Leading Indicators affect forecasts by professional economists as well as future industrial production in the United States. This thesis aims to verify the applicability of these findings to other countries, as well as study the link between measurement errors in gross domestic product and sentiment. This thesis explores the relationship between measurement errors in gross domestic production and sentiment and future output. Professional forecasts and consumer sentiment in the United States and Finland, as well as producer sentiment in Finland, are used as the measures of sentiment. Using statistical techniques it is found that measurement errors in gross domestic product affect forecasts and producer sentiment. The effect on consumer sentiment is ambiguous. The relationship between measurement errors and future output is explored using data from Finland, United States, United Kingdom, New Zealand and Sweden. It is found that measurement errors have affected aggregate production or investment in Finland, United States, United Kingdom and Sweden. Specifically, it was found that overly optimistic statistics announcements are associated with higher output and vice versa.

The Structure and Short-Term Development of Finnish Industries in the 1920s and 1930s : An Input-output Approach

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on tuottaa uutta tietoa Suomen kansantalouden rakenteesta ja lyhyen aikavälin kehityksestä 1920- ja 1930-luvulla. Tutkimus toteutettiin laatimalla kansantaloutta kuvaava panos-tuotostaulu vuodelle 1928 sekä sen laajennus, panos-tuotosmalli. Aineiston avulla kuvataan kansantalouden rakenteellisia riippuvuuksia, tuotannon avaintoimialoja sekä näiden vaikutusta kansantalouteen. Lisäksi tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan kansantalouden tuontiriippuvuutta sekä tuontitullien vaikutusta hintoihin 1930-luvun laman aikana. Tutkimuksen perusteella voitiin identifioida Suomen kansantalouden avaintoimialat vuonna 1928: maatalous, metsätalous, elintarviketeollisuus, puuteollisuus, paperiteollisuus ja rakennustoiminta. Erityisesti elintarviketeollisuuden vahva rooli kansantaloudessa oli kenties yllättävää, erityisesti kun huomioidaan kuinka vähän toimiala on saanut huomiota osakseen taloushistorian tutkimuksessa. Tutkimus osoitti, että Suomen vienti oli pääomavaltaisempaa kuin tuonti. Vaikka tämän tuloksen tulkinta on varauksellinen, tutkimus pystyi osoittamaan ja kvantifioimaan toimialojen työ- ja pääomapanoksen osuuden tuotoksesta yksityiskohtaisesti. Panos-tuotosmallilla arvioitiin puuteollisuuden, paperiteollisuuden ja rakennustoiminnan ajanjaksona 1928-32 tapahtuneen loppukäytön muutoksen vaikutusta kansantalouteen. Merkittävä havainto on, että rakennustoiminnan loppukäytön muutoksella oli erittäin suuri kasvua vähentävä vaikutus koko kansantaloudessa. Talonrakennusinvestointien romahtaminen aiheutti lähes 13 prosentin tuotannon laskun kansantaloudessa. Vaikutus oli jopa suurempi kuin puuteollisuuden viennin romahtamisen. Tulokset osoittavat toisaalta, että yksityisen kulutuksen merkitys kansantaloudelle oli erittäin vahva. Esimerkiksi puuteollisuuden viennin romahtaminen aiheutti yli 4 % tuotannon vähenemisen mutta huomioitaessa mallissa myös yksityisen kulutuksen väheneminen, oli kokonaisvaikutus yli 10 %. Yksityisen kulutuksen huomioiminen mallissa siis yli kaksinkertaisti toimialojen vaikutukset kansantalouteen. Tulokset vahvistivat aiemmissa tutkimuksissa esitettyjä johtopäätöksiä tullipolitiikasta ja osoittivat maatalouteen läheisesti liittyvän elintarviketeollisuuden olleen eniten suojeltu toimiala kansantaloudessa. Muut kotimarkkinoiden toimialat eivät kuitenkaan hyötyneet tullipolitiikasta lamakauden aikana. Panos-tuotoshintamallilla osoitettiin, ettei tullipolitiikka ollut niin onnistunutta kuin aikalaistutkimuksissa väitettiin, vaan tullit korkeintaan pystyivät hidastamaan hintojen alenemista. Tutkimuksen liitteenä esitetään kaikki keskeiset Suomen kansantaloutta vuonna 1928 kuvaavat tilastolliset taulukot, mukaan lukien käyttö- ja tarjontataulukot, panos-tuotostaulukot, panoskertoimet, Leontiefin käänteismatriisi sekä työ- ja pääomapanoskertoimet.

Search for Top-Quark Production via Flavor-Changing Neutral Currents in W+1 Jet Events at CDF

We report on the first search for top-quark production via flavor-changing neutral-current (FCNC) interactions in the non-standard-model process u(c)+g -> t using ppbar collision data collected by the CDF II detector. The data set corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 2.2/fb. The candidate events feature the signature of semileptonic top-quark decays and are classified as signal-like or background-like by an artificial neural network trained on simulated events. The observed discriminant distribution is in good agreement with the one predicted by the standard model and provides no evidence for FCNC top-quark production, resulting in a Bayesian upper limit on the production cross section sigma (u(c)+g -> t) u+g) c+g)

Magnetically induced currents and magnetic response properties of molecules

The magnetically induced currents in organic monoring and multiring molecules, in Möbius shaped molecules and in inorganic all-metal molecules have been investigated by means of the Gauge-including magnetically induced currents (GIMIC) method. With the GIMIC method, the ring-current strengths and the ring-current density distributions can be calculated. For open-shell molecules, also the spin current can be obtained. The ring-current pathways and ring-current strengths can be used to understand the magnetic resonance properties of the molecules, to indirectly identify the effect of non-bonded interactions on NMR chemical shifts, to design new molecules with tailored properties and to discuss molecular aromaticity. In the thesis, the magnetic criterion for aromaticity has been adopted. According to this, a molecule which has a net diatropic ring current might be aromatic. Similarly, a molecule which has a net paratropic current might be antiaromatic. If the net current is zero, the molecule is nonaromatic. The electronic structure of the investigated molecules has been resolved by quantum chemical methods. The magnetically induced currents have been calculated with the GIMIC method at the density-functional theory (DFT) level, as well as at the self-consistent field Hartree-Fock (SCF-HF), at the Møller-Plesset perturbation theory of the second order (MP2) and at the coupled-cluster singles and doubles (CCSD) levels of theory. For closed-shell molecules, accurate ring-current strengths can be obtained with a reasonable computational cost at the DFT level and with rather small basis sets. For open-shell molecules, it is shown that correlated methods such as MP2 and CCSD might be needed to obtain reliable charge and spin currents. The basis set convergence has to be checked for open-shell molecules by performing calculations with large enough basis sets. The results discussed in the thesis have been published in eight papers. In addition, some previously unpublished results on the ring currents in the endohedral fullerene Sc3C2@C80 and in coronene are presented. It is shown that dynamical effects should be taken into account when modelling magnetic resonance parameters of endohedral metallofullerenes such as Sc3C2@C80. The ring-current strengths in a series of nano-sized hydrocarbon rings are related to static polarizabilities and to H-1 nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) shieldings. In a case study on the possible aromaticity of a Möbius-shaped [16]annulene we found that, according to the magnetic criterion, the molecule is nonaromatic. The applicability of the GIMIC method to assign the aromatic character of molecules was confirmed in a study on the ring currents in simple monocylic aromatic, homoaromatic, antiaromatic, and nonaromatic hydrocarbons. Case studies on nanorings, hexaphyrins and [n]cycloparaphenylenes show that explicit calculations are needed to unravel the ring-current delocalization pathways in complex multiring molecules. The open-shell implementation of GIMIC was applied in studies on the charge currents and the spin currents in single-ring and bi-ring molecules with open shells. The aromaticity predictions that are made based on the GIMIC results are compared to other aromaticity criteria such as H-1 NMR shieldings and shifts, electric polarizabilities, bond-length alternation, as well as to predictions provided by the traditional Hückel (4n+2) rule and its more recent extensions that account for Möbius twisted molecules and for molecules with open shells.