Political Risk in Credit Evaluation: Empirical Studies and Survey Results

Financing trade between economic agents located in different countries is affected by many types of risks, resulting from incomplete information about the debtor, the problems of enforcing international contracts, or the prevalence of political and financial crises. Trade is important for economic development and the availability of trade finance is essential, especially for developing countries. Relatively few studies treat the topic of political risk, particularly in the context of international lending. This thesis explores new ground to identify links between political risk and international debt defaults. The core hypothesis of the study is that the default probability of debt increases with increasing political risk in the country of the borrower. The thesis consists of three essays that support the hypothesis from different angles of the credit evaluation process. The first essay takes the point of view of an international lender assessing the credit risk of a public borrower. The second investigates creditworthiness assessment of companies. The obtained results are substantiated in the third essay that deals with an extensive political risk survey among finance professionals in developing countries. The financial instruments of core interest are export credit guaranteed debt initiated between the Export Credit Agency of Finland and buyers in 145 countries between 1975 and 2006. Default events of the foreign credit counterparts are conditioned on country-specific macroeconomic variables, corporate-specific accounting information as well as political risk indicators from various international sources. Essay 1 examines debt issued to government controlled institutions and conditions public default events on traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, in addition to selected political and institutional risk factors. Confirming previous research, the study finds country indebtedness and the GDP growth rate to be significant indicators of public default. Further, it is shown that public defaults respond to various political risk factors. However, the impact of the risk varies between countries at different stages of economic development. Essay 2 proceeds by investigating political risk factors as conveivable drivers of corporate default and uses traditional accounting variables together with new political risk indicators in the credit evaluation of private debtors. The study finds links between corporate default and leverage, as well as between corporate default and the general investment climate and measeures of conflict in the debtor country. Essay 3 concludes the thesis by offering survey evidence on the impact of political risk on debt default, as perceived and experienced by 103 finance professionals in 38 developing countries. Taken together, the results of the thesis suggest that various forms of political risk are associated with international debt defaults and continue to pose great concerns for both international creditors and borrowers in developing countries. The study provides new insights on the importance of variable selection in country risk analysis, and shows how political risk is actually perceived and experienced in the riskier, often lower income countries of the global economy.

Evaluating the Predictability of the Volatility Smile Using Return Distributions

In this paper, we examine the predictability of observed volatility smiles in three major European index options markets, utilising the historical return distributions of the respective underlying assets. The analysis involves an application of the Black (1976) pricing model adjusted in accordance with the Jarrow-Rudd methodology as proposed in 1982. Thereby we adjust the expected future returns for the third and fourth central moments as these represent deviations from normality in the distributions of observed returns. Thus, they are considered one possible explanation to the existence of the smile. The obtained results indicate that the inclusion of the higher moments in the pricing model to some extent reduces the volatility smile, compared with the unadjusted Black-76 model. However, as the smile is partly a function of supply, demand, and liquidity, and as such intricate to model, this modification does not appear sufficient to fully capture the characteristics of the smile.

Uniparental DNA markers and forensic genetics in Finland

Over the years, a wide range of methods to verify identity have been developed. Molecular markers have been used for identification since the 1920s, commencing with blood types and culminating with the advent of DNA techniques in the 1980s. Identification is required by authorities in many occasions, e.g. in disputed paternity cases, identification of deceased, or crime investigation. To clarify maternal and paternal lineages, uniparental DNA markers in mtDNA and Y-chromosome can be utilized. These markers have several advantages: male specific Y-chromosome can be used to identify a male from a mixture of male and female cells, e.g. in rape cases. MtDNA is durable and has a high copy number, allowing analyses even from old or degraded samples. However, both markers are lineage-specific, not individualizing, and susceptible to genetic drift. Prior to the application of any DNA marker in forensic casework, it is of utmost importance to investigate its qualities and peculiarities in the target population. Earlier studies on the Finnish population have shown reduced variation in the Y-chromosome, but in mtDNA results have been ambiguous. The obtained results confirmed the low diversity in Y-chromosome in Finland. Detailed population analysis revealed large regional differences, and extremely reduced diversity especially in East Finland. Analysis of the qualities affecting Y-chromosomal short tandem repeat (Y-STR) variation and mutation frequencies, and search of new polymorphic markers resulted a set of Y-STRs with especially high diversity in Finland. Contrary to Y-chromosome, neither reduced diversity nor regional differences were found in mtDNA within Finland. In fact, mtDNA diversity was found similar to other European populations. The revealed peculiarities in the uniparental markers are a legacy of the Finnish population history. The obtained results challenge the traditional explanation which emphasizes relatively recent founder effects creating the observed east-west patterns. Uniparentally inherited markers, both mtDNA and Y-chromosome, are applicable for identification purposes in Finland. By adjusting the analysed Y marker set to meet the characteristics of Finnish population, Y-chromosomal diversity increases and the regional differentiation decreases, resulting increase in discrimination power and thus usefulness of Y-chromosomal analysis in forensic casework.

On formation, growth and concentrations of air ions

Aerosol particles have effect on climate, visibility, air quality and human health. However, the strength of which aerosol particles affect our everyday life is not well described or entirely understood. Therefore, investigations of different processes and phenomena including e.g. primary particle sources, initial steps of secondary particle formation and growth, significance of charged particles in particle formation, as well as redistribution mechanisms in the atmosphere are required. In this work sources, sinks and concentrations of air ions (charged molecules, cluster and particles) were investigated directly by measuring air molecule ionising components (i.e. radon activity concentrations and external radiation dose rates) and charged particle size distributions, as well as based on literature review. The obtained results gave comprehensive and valuable picture of the spatial and temporal variation of the air ion sources, sinks and concentrations to use as input parameters in local and global scale climate models. Newly developed air ion spectrometers (Airel Ltd.) offered a possibility to investigate atmospheric (charged) particle formation and growth at sub-3 nm sizes. Therefore, new visual classification schemes for charged particle formation events were developed, and a newly developed particle growth rate method was tested with over one year dataset. These data analysis methods have been widely utilised by other researchers since introducing them. This thesis resulted interesting characteristics of atmospheric particle formation and growth: e.g. particle growth may sometimes be suppressed before detection limit (~ 3 nm) of traditional aerosol instruments, particle formation may take place during daytime as well as in the evening, growth rates of sub-3 nm particles were quite constant throughout the year while growth rates of larger particles (3-20 nm in diameter) were higher during summer compared to winter. These observations were thought to be a consequence of availability of condensing vapours. The observations of this thesis offered new understanding of the particle formation in the atmosphere. However, the role of ions in particle formation, which is not well understood with current knowledge, requires further research in future.

Mother-Infant Antibodies to Pneumococcal Polysaccharides and Proteins : Transfer and Persistence of Maternal Antibodies and Development of Vaccine-Induced and Naturally Acquired Antibodies in Infants

Symptomless nasopharyngeal carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) is very common in young children. Occasionally the carriage proceeds into mild mucosal diseases, such as sinusitis or acute otitis media, or into serious life-threatening diseases, such as pneumonia, sepsis or meningitis. Each year, up to one million children less than five years of age worldwide die of invasive pneumococcal diseases (IPD). Especially in the low-income countries IPD is a leading health problem in infants; 75% of all IPD cases occur before one year of age. This stresses the need of increased protection against pneumococcus in infancy. Anti-pneumococcal antibodies form an important component in the defence against pneumococcal infection. Maternal immunisation and early infant immunisation are two possible ways by which potentially protective antibody concentrations against pneumococci could be achieved in early infancy. The aim of this thesis is to increase the knowledge of antibody mediated protection against pneumococcal disease in infants and young children. We investigated the transfer of maternal anti-pneumococcal antibodies from Filipino mothers to their infants, the persistence of the transferred antibodies in the infants, the immunogenicity of the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV) in infants and the response of the children to a second dose of PPV at three years of age. We also investigated the development of antibodies to pneumococcal protein antigens in relation to culture-confirmed pneumococcal carriage in infants. Serum samples were collected from the mothers, the umbilical cords and from the infants at young age as well as at three years of age. The samples were used to determine the antibody concentrations to pneumococcal serotypes 1, 5, 6B, 14, 18C and 19F, as well as to the pneumococcal proteins PspA, PsaA, Ply, PspC, PhtD, PhtDC and LytC by the enzyme immunoassay. The findings of the present study confirm previously obtained results and add to the global knowledge of responses to PPV in young children. Immunising pregnant women with PPV provides the infants with increased concentrations of pneumococcal polysaccharide antibodies. Of the six serotypes examined, serotypes 1 and 5 were immunogenic already in infants. At three years of age, the children responded well to the second dose of PPV suggesting that maternal and early infant immunisations might not induce hyporesponsiveness to polysaccharide antigens after subsequent immunisations. The anti-protein antibody findings provide useful information for the development of pneumococcal protein vaccines. All six proteins studied were immunogenic in infancy and the development of anti-protein antibodies started early in life in relation to pneumococcal carriage.