8 resultados para Multi Criteria Decision Analysis

em Helda - Digital Repository of University of Helsinki


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The paper examines the needs, premises and criteria for effective public participation in tactical forest planning. A method for participatory forest planning utilizing the techniques of preference analysis, professional expertise and heuristic optimization is introduced. The techniques do not cover the whole process of participatory planning, but are applied as a tool constituting the numerical core for decision support. The complexity of multi-resource management is addressed by hierarchical decision analysis which assesses the public values, preferences and decision criteria toward the planning situation. An optimal management plan is sought using heuristic optimization. The plan can further be improved through mutual negotiations, if necessary. The use of the approach is demonstrated with an illustrative example, it's merits and challenges for participatory forest planning and decision making are discussed and a model for applying it in general forest planning context is depicted. By using the approach, valuable information can be obtained about public preferences and the effects of taking them into consideration on the choice of the combination of standwise treatment proposals for a forest area. Participatory forest planning calculations, carried out by the approach presented in the paper, can be utilized in conflict management and in developing compromises between competing interests.

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This study reports a corpus-based study of medieval English herbals, which are texts conveying information on medicinal plants. Herbals belong to the medieval medical register. The study charts intertextual parallels within the medieval genre, and between herbals and other contemporary medical texts. It seeks to answer questions where and how herbal texts are linked to each other, and to other medical writing. The theoretical framework of the study draws on intertextuality and genre studies, manuscript studies, corpus linguistics, and multi-dimensional text analysis. The method combines qualitative and quantitative analyses of textual material from three historical special-language corpora of Middle and Early Modern English, one of which was compiled for the purposes of this study. The text material contains over 800,000 words of medical texts. The time span of the material is from c. 1330 to 1550. Text material is retrieved from the corpora by using plant name lists as search criteria. The raw data is filtered through qualitative analysis which produces input for the quantitative analysis, multi-dimensional scaling (MDS). In MDS, the textual space that parallel text passages form is observed, and the observations are explained by a qualitative analysis. This study concentrates on evidence of material and structural intertextuality. The analysis shows patterns of affinity between the texts of the herbal genre, and between herbals and other texts in the medical register. Herbals are most closely linked with recipe collections and regimens of health: they comprise over 95 per cent of the intertextual links between herbals and other medical writing. Links to surgical texts, or to specialised medical texts are very few. This can be explained by the history of the herbal genre: as herbals carry information on medical ingredients, herbs, they are relevant for genres that are related to pharmacological therapy. Conversely, herbals draw material from recipe collections in order to illustrate the medicinal properties of the herbs they describe. The study points out the close relationship between medical recipes and recipe-like passages in herbals (recipe paraphrases). The examples of recipe paraphrases show that they may have been perceived as indirect instruction. Keywords: medieval herbals, early English medicine, corpus linguistics, intertextuality, manuscript studies

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Socio-economic and demographic changes among family forest owners and demands for versatile forestry decision aid motivated this study, which sought grounds for owner-driven forest planning. Finnish family forest owners’ forest-related decision making was analyzed in two interview-based qualitative studies, the main findings of which were surveyed quantitatively. Thereafter, a scheme for adaptively mixing methods in individually tailored decision support processes was constructed. The first study assessed owners’ decision-making strategies by examining varying levels of the sharing of decision-making power and the desire to learn. Five decision-making modes – trusting, learning, managing, pondering, and decisive – were discerned and discussed against conformable decision-aid approaches. The second study conceptualized smooth communication and assessed emotional, practical, and institutional boosters of and barriers to such smoothness in communicative decision support. The results emphasize the roles of trust, comprehension, and contextual services in owners’ communicative decision making. In the third study, a questionnaire tool to measure owners’ attitudes towards communicative planning was constructed by using trusting, learning, and decisive dimensions. Through a multivariate analysis of survey data, three owner groups were identified as fusions of the original decision-making modes: trusting learners (53%), decisive learners (27%), and decisive managers (20%). Differently weighted communicative services are recommended for these compound wishes. The findings of the studies above were synthesized in a form of adaptive decision analysis (ADA), which allows and encourages the decision-maker (owner) to make deliberate choices concerning the phases of a decision aid (planning) process. The ADA model relies on adaptability and feedback management, which foster smooth communication with the owner and (inter-)organizational learning of the planning institution(s). The summarized results indicate that recognizing the communication-related amenity values of family forest owners may be crucial in developing planning and extension services. It is therefore recommended that owners, root-level planners, consultation professionals, and pragmatic researchers collaboratively continue to seek stable change.

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Department of Forest Resource Management in the University of Helsinki has in years 2004?2007 carried out so-called SIMO -project to develop a new generation planning system for forest management. Project parties are organisations doing most of Finnish forest planning in government, industry and private owned forests. Aim of this study was to find out the needs and requirements for new forest planning system and to clarify how parties see targets and processes in today's forest planning. Representatives responsible for forest planning in each organisation were interviewed one by one. According to study the stand-based system for managing and treating forests continues in the future. Because of variable data acquisition methods with different accuracy and sources, and development of single tree interpretation, more and more forest data is collected without field work. The benefits of using more specific forest data also calls for use of information units smaller than tree stand. In Finland the traditional way to arrange forest planning computation is divided in two elements. After updating the forest data to present situation every stand unit's growth is simulated with different alternative treatment schedule. After simulation, optimisation selects for every stand one treatment schedule so that the management program satisfies the owner's goals in the best possible way. This arrangement will be maintained in the future system. The parties' requirements to add multi-criteria problem solving, group decision support methods as well as heuristic and spatial optimisation into system make the programming work more challenging. Generally the new system is expected to be adjustable and transparent. Strict documentation and free source code helps to bring these expectations into effect. Variable growing models and treatment schedules with different source information, accuracy, methods and the speed of processing are supposed to work easily in system. Also possibilities to calibrate models regionally and to set local parameters changing in time are required. In future the forest planning system will be integrated in comprehensive data management systems together with geographic, economic and work supervision information. This requires a modular method of implementing the system and the use of a simple data transmission interface between modules and together with other systems. No major differences in parties' view of the systems requirements were noticed in this study. Rather the interviews completed the full picture from slightly different angles. In organisation the forest management is considered quite inflexible and it only draws the strategic lines. It does not yet have a role in operative activity, although the need and benefits of team level forest planning are admitted. Demands and opportunities of variable forest data, new planning goals and development of information technology are known. Party organisations want to keep on track with development. One example is the engagement in extensive SIMO-project which connects the whole field of forest planning in Finland.

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This thesis is grounded on four articles. Article I generally examines the factors affecting dental service utilization. Article II studies the factors associated with sector-specific utilization among young adults entitled to age-based subsidized dental care. Article III explores the determinants of dental ill-health as measured by the occurrence of caries and the relationship between dental ill-health and dental care use. Article IV measures and explains income-related inequality in utilization. Data employed were from the 1996 Finnish Health Care Survey (I, II, IV) and the 1997 follow-up study included in the longitudinal study of the Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort (III). Utilization is considered as a multi-stage decision-making process and measured as the number of visits to the dentist. Modified count data models and concentration and horizontal equity indices were applied. Dentist s recall appeared very efficient at stimulating individuals to seek care. Dental pain, recall, and the low number of missing teeth positively affected utilization. Public subvention for dental care did not seem to statistically increase utilization. Among young adults, a perception of insufficient public service availability and recall were positively associated with the choice of a private dentist, whereas income and dentist density were positively associated with the number of visits to private dentists. Among cohort females, factors increasing caries were body mass index and intake of alcohol, sugar, and soft drinks and those reducing caries were birth weight and adolescent school achievement. Among cohort males, caries was positively related to the metropolitan residence and negatively related to healthy diet and education. Smoking increased caries, whereas regular teeth brushing, regular dental attendance and dental care use decreased caries. We found equity in young adults utilization but pro-rich inequity in the total number of visits to all dentists and in the probability of visiting a dentist for the whole sample. We observed inequity in the total number of visits to the dentist and in the probability of visiting a dentist, being pro-poor for public care but pro-rich for private care. The findings suggest that to enhance equal access to and use of dental care across population and income groups, attention should focus on supply factors and incentives to encourage people to contact dentists more often. Lowering co-payments and service fees and improving public availability would likely increase service use in both sectors. To attain favorable oral health, appropriate policies aimed at improving dental health education and reducing the detrimental effects of common risk factors on dental health should be strengthened. Providing equal access with respect to need for all people ought to take account of the segmentation of the service system, with its two parallel delivery systems and different supplier incentives to patients and dentists.

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In this thesis we study a series of multi-user resource-sharing problems for the Internet, which involve distribution of a common resource among participants of multi-user systems (servers or networks). We study concurrently accessible resources, which for end-users may be exclusively accessible or non-exclusively. For all kinds we suggest a separate algorithm or a modification of common reputation scheme. Every algorithm or method is studied from different perspectives: optimality of protocols, selfishness of end users, fairness of the protocol for end users. On the one hand the multifaceted analysis allows us to select the most suited protocols among a set of various available ones based on trade-offs of optima criteria. On the other hand, the future Internet predictions dictate new rules for the optimality we should take into account and new properties of the networks that cannot be neglected anymore. In this thesis we have studied new protocols for such resource-sharing problems as the backoff protocol, defense mechanisms against Denial-of-Service, fairness and confidentiality for users in overlay networks. For backoff protocol we present analysis of a general backoff scheme, where an optimization is applied to a general-view backoff function. It leads to an optimality condition for backoff protocols in both slot times and continuous time models. Additionally we present an extension for the backoff scheme in order to achieve fairness for the participants in an unfair environment, such as wireless signal strengths. Finally, for the backoff algorithm we suggest a reputation scheme that deals with misbehaving nodes. For the next problem -- denial-of-service attacks, we suggest two schemes that deal with the malicious behavior for two conditions: forged identities and unspoofed identities. For the first one we suggest a novel most-knocked-first-served algorithm, while for the latter we apply a reputation mechanism in order to restrict resource access for misbehaving nodes. Finally, we study the reputation scheme for the overlays and peer-to-peer networks, where resource is not placed on a common station, but spread across the network. The theoretical analysis suggests what behavior will be selected by the end station under such a reputation mechanism.

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This paper investigates the effect of income inequality on health status. A model of health status was specified in which the main variables were income level, income inequality, the level of savings and the level of education. The model was estimated using a panel data set for 44 countries covering six time periods. The results indicate that income inequality (measured by the Gini coefficient) has a significant effect on health status when we control for the levels of income, savings and education. The relationship is consistent regardless of the specification of health status and income. Thus, the study results provide some empirical support for the income inequality hypothesis.

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Mycotoxins are secondary metabolites of filamentous fungi. They pose a health risk to humans and animals due to their harmful biological properties and common occurrence in food and feed. Liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry (LC/MS) has gained popularity in the trace analysis of food contaminants. In this study, the applicability of the technique was evaluated in multi-residue methods of mycotoxins aiming at simultaneous detection of chemically diverse compounds. Methods were developed for rapid determination of toxins produced by fungal genera of Aspergillus, Fusarium, Penicillium and Claviceps from cheese, cereal based agar matrices and grains. Analytes were extracted from these matrices with organic solvents. Minimal sample clean-up was carried out before the analysis of the mycotoxins with reversed phase LC coupled to tandem MS (MS/MS). The methods were validated and applied for investigating mycotoxins in cheese and ergot alkaloid occurrence in Finnish grains. Additionally, the toxin production of two Fusarium species predominant in northern Europe was studied. Nine mycotoxins could be determined from cheese with the method developed. The limits of quantification (LOQ) allowed the quantification at concentrations varying from 0.6 to 5.0 µg/kg. The recoveries ranged between 96 and 143 %, and the within-day repeatability (as relative standard deviation, RSDr) between 2.3 and 12.1 %. Roquefortine C and mycophenolic acid could be detected at levels of 300 up to 12000 µg/kg in the mould cheese samples analysed. A total of 29 or 31 toxins could be analysed with the method developed for agar matrices and grains, with the LOQs ranging overall from 0.1 to 1250 µg/kg. The recoveries ranged generally between 44 and 139 %, and the RSDr between 2.0 and 38 %. Type-A trichothecenes and beauvericin were determined from the cereal based agar and grain cultures of F. sporotrichioides and F. langsethiae. T-2 toxin was the main metabolite, the average levels reaching 22000 µg/kg in the grain cultures after 28 days of incubation. The method developed for ten ergot alkaloids from grains allowed their quantification at levels varying from 0.01 to 10 µg/kg. The recoveries ranged from 51 to 139 %, and the RSDr from 0.6 to 13.9 %. Ergot alkaloids were measured in barley and rye at average levels of 59 and 720 µg/kg, respectively. The two most prevalent alkaloids were ergocornine and ergocristine. The LC/MS methods developed enabled rapid detection of mycotoxins in such applications where several toxins co-occurred. Generally, the performance of the methods was good, allowing reliable analysis of the mycotoxins of interest with sufficiently low quantification limits. However, the variation in validation results highlighted the challenges related to optimising this type of multi-residue methods. New data was obtained about the occurrence of mycotoxins in mould cheeses and of ergot alkaloids in Finnish grains. In addition, the study revealed the high mycotoxin-producing potential of two common fungi in Finnish crops. The information can be useful when risks related to fungal and mycotoxin contamination will be assessed.