Markers of systemic inflammation in diagnostics and in prediction of outcome of community-acquired infection

Sepsis is associated with a systemic inflammatory response. It is characterised by an early proinflammatory response and followed by a state of immunosuppression. In order to improve the outcome of patients with infection and sepsis, novel therapies that influence the systemic inflammatory response are being developed and utilised. Thus, an accurate and early diagnosis of infection and evaluation of immune state are crucial. In this thesis, various markers of systemic inflammation were studied with respect to enhancing the diagnostics of infection and of predicting outcome in patients with suspected community-acquired infection. A total of 1092 acutely ill patients admitted to a university hospital medical emergency department were evaluated, and 531 patients with a suspicion of community-acquired infection were included for the analysis. Markers of systemic inflammation were determined from a blood sample obtained simultaneously with a blood culture sample on admission to hospital. Levels of phagocyte CD11b/CD18 and CD14 expression were measured by whole blood flow cytometry. Concentrations of soluble CD14, interleukin (IL)-8, and soluble IL-2 receptor α (sIL-2Rα) were determined by ELISA, those of sIL-2R, IL-6, and IL-8 by a chemiluminescent immunoassay, that of procalcitonin by immunoluminometric assay, and that of C-reactive protein by immunoturbidimetric assay. Clinical data were collected retrospectively from the medical records. No marker of systemic inflammation, neither CRP, PCT, IL-6, IL-8, nor sIL-2R predicted bacteraemia better than did the clinical signs of infection, i.e., the presence of infectious focus or fever or both. IL-6 and PCT had the highest positive likelihood ratios to identify patients with hidden community-acquired infection. However, the use of a single marker failed to detect all patients with infection. A combination of markers including a fast-responding reactant (CD11b expression), a later-peaking reactant (CRP), and a reactant originating from inflamed tissues (IL-8) detected all patients with infection. The majority of patients (86.5%) with possible but not verified infection showed levels exceeding at least one cut-off limit of combination, supporting the view that infection was the cause of their acute illness. The 28-day mortality of patients with community-acquired infection was low (3.4%). On admission to hospital, the low expression of cell-associated lipopolysaccharide receptor CD14 (mCD14) was predictive for 28-day mortality. In the patients with severe forms of community-acquired infection, namely pneumonia and sepsis, high levels of soluble CD14 alone did not predict mortality, but a high sCD14 level measured simultaneously with a low mCD14 raised the possibility of poor prognosis. In conclusion, to further enhance the diagnostics of hidden community-acquired infection, a combination of inflammatory markers is useful; 28-day mortality is associated with low levels of mCD14 expression at an early phase of the disease.

Inference on Cointegration in Vector Autoregressive Models (summary section only)

In the thesis we consider inference for cointegration in vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The thesis consists of an introduction and four papers. The first paper proposes a new test for cointegration in VAR models that is directly based on the eigenvalues of the least squares (LS) estimate of the autoregressive matrix. In the second paper we compare a small sample correction for the likelihood ratio (LR) test of cointegrating rank and the bootstrap. The simulation experiments show that the bootstrap works very well in practice and dominates the correction factor. The tests are applied to international stock prices data, and the .nite sample performance of the tests are investigated by simulating the data. The third paper studies the demand for money in Sweden 1970—2000 using the I(2) model. In the fourth paper we re-examine the evidence of cointegration between international stock prices. The paper shows that some of the previous empirical results can be explained by the small-sample bias and size distortion of Johansen’s LR tests for cointegration. In all papers we work with two data sets. The first data set is a Swedish money demand data set with observations on the money stock, the consumer price index, gross domestic product (GDP), the short-term interest rate and the long-term interest rate. The data are quarterly and the sample period is 1970(1)—2000(1). The second data set consists of month-end stock market index observations for Finland, France, Germany, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States from 1980(1) to 1997(2). Both data sets are typical of the sample sizes encountered in economic data, and the applications illustrate the usefulness of the models and tests discussed in the thesis.

Bootstrap and Fast Double Bootstrap Tests of Cointegration Rank with Financial Time Series

The likelihood ratio test of cointegration rank is the most widely used test for cointegration. Many studies have shown that its finite sample distribution is not well approximated by the limiting distribution. The article introduces and evaluates by Monte Carlo simulation experiments bootstrap and fast double bootstrap (FDB) algorithms for the likelihood ratio test. It finds that the performance of the bootstrap test is very good. The more sophisticated FDB produces a further improvement in cases where the performance of the asymptotic test is very unsatisfactory and the ordinary bootstrap does not work as well as it might. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo simulations provide a number of guidelines on when the bootstrap and FDB tests can be expected to work well. Finally, the tests are applied to US interest rates and international stock prices series. It is found that the asymptotic test tends to overestimate the cointegration rank, while the bootstrap and FDB tests choose the correct cointegration rank.

The Power of Bootstrap Tests of Cointegration Rank with Financial Time Series

Bootstrap likelihood ratio tests of cointegration rank are commonly used because they tend to have rejection probabilities that are closer to the nominal level than the rejection probabilities of the correspond- ing asymptotic tests. The e¤ect of bootstrapping the test on its power is largely unknown. We show that a new computationally inexpensive procedure can be applied to the estimation of the power function of the bootstrap test of cointegration rank. The bootstrap test is found to have a power function close to that of the level-adjusted asymp- totic test. The bootstrap test estimates the level-adjusted power of the asymptotic test highly accurately. The bootstrap test may have low power to reject the null hypothesis of cointegration rank zero, or underestimate the cointegration rank. An empirical application to Euribor interest rates is provided as an illustration of the findings.

Tests for Cointegration Rank and the Initial Condition

Many economic events involve initial observations that substantially deviate from long-run steady state. Initial conditions of this type have been found to impact diversely on the power of univariate unit root tests, whereas the impact on multivariate tests is largely unknown. This paper investigates the impact of the initial condition on tests for cointegration rank. We compare the local power of the widely used likelihood ratio (LR) test with the local power of a test based on the eigenvalues of the companion matrix. We find that the power of the LR test is increasing in the magnitude of the initial condition, whereas the power of the other test is decreasing. The behaviour of the tests is investigated in an application to price convergence.

Top quark mass measurement in the lepton plus jets channel using a modified matrix element method

We report a measurement of the top quark mass, m_t, obtained from ppbar collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV at the Fermilab Tevatron using the CDF II detector. We analyze a sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.9 fb^-1. We select events with an electron or muon, large missing transverse energy, and exactly four high-energy jets in the central region of the detector, at least one of which is tagged as coming from a b quark. We calculate a signal likelihood using a matrix element integration method, with effective propagators to take into account assumptions on event kinematics. Our event likelihood is a function of m_t and a parameter JES that determines /in situ/ the calibration of the jet energies. We use a neural network discriminant to distinguish signal from background events. We also apply a cut on the peak value of each event likelihood curve to reduce the contribution of background and badly reconstructed events. Using the 318 events that pass all selection criteria, we find m_t = 172.7 +/- 1.8 (stat. + JES) +/- 1.2 (syst.) GeV/c^2.

Impulsivity, health-related behaviour and disease : A prospective study

In clinical settings impulsivity refers to a symptom of psychiatric disorder, but nonclinically oriented research treats impulsivity as a personality and temperament dimension. This prospective study examined whether impulsivity predicts adverse health-related behaviour and increased risk of health problems in a large, nonclinical sample of 5433 subjects working in 12 Finnish hospitals. The data were collected using two questionnaire surveys at a 2-year interval. After controlling for alcohol use at baseline, higher impulsivity predicted increased alcohol consumption at follow-up in both genders (p < .01) and was associated with increased likelihood of becoming a heavy drinker or taking up smoking (p < .05). Impulsivity also predicted an increased number of cigarettes smoked per day in the follow-up among women (p < .001), but not among men, although adjustment for the number of cigarettes smoked at baseline attenuated these associations (p = .08 for women). In men, higher impulsivity was associated with shorter sleep duration and waking up several times per night independent of baseline characteristics (p < .01), whereas in women, higher impulsivity predicted difficulty in falling asleep and waking up feeling tired after the usual amount of sleep (p < .05). In women, these associations became nonsignificant after adjustment for pre-existing somatic and psychiatric diseases. Finally, higher impulsivity was associated with an increased 2-year incidence of physician-diagnosed peptic ulcer disease (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 2.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.21 - 4.82) and onset of depression (OR = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.28 - 2.97) after adjustment for a variety of baseline covariates. In conclusion, this study shows that in a nonclinical population, impulsivity appears to be a risk factor for various unhealthy behaviour and health problems.

Oral Health among Young Adults and the Middle-aged in Iran

The aim of the present study was to assess oral health and treatment needs among adult Iranians according to socio-demographic status, smoking, and oral hygiene, and to investigate the relationships between these determinants and oral health. Data for 4448 young adult (aged 18) and 8301 middle-aged (aged 35 to 44) Iranians were collected in 2002 as part of a national survey using the World Health Organization (WHO) criteria for sampling and clinical diagnoses, across 28 provinces by 33 calibrated examiners. Gender, age, place of residence, and level of education served as socio-demographic information, smoking as behavioural and modified plaque index (PI) as the biological risk indicator for oral hygiene. Number of teeth, decayed teeth (DT), filled teeth (FT), decayed, missing, filled teeth (DMFT), community periodontal index (CPI), and prosthodontic rehabilitation served as outcome variables of oral health. Mean number of DMFT was 4.3 (Standard deviation (SD) = 3.7) in young adults and 11.0 (SD = 6.4) among middle-aged individuals. Among young adults the D-component (DT = 70%), and among middle-aged individuals the M-component (60%) dominated in the DMFT index. Among young adults, visible plaque was found in nearly all subjects. Maximum (max) PI was associated with higher mean number of DT, and higher periodontal treatment needs. A healthy periodontium was a rare condition, with 8% of young adults and 1% of middle-aged individuals having a max CPI = 0. The majority of the CPI findings among young adults consisted of calculus (48%) and deepened periodontal pockets (21%). Respective values for middle-aged individuals were 40% and 53%. Having a deep pocket (max CPI = 4) was more likely among young adults with a low level of education (Odds ratio (OR) = 2.7, 95% Confidence interval (CI) = 1.9–4.0) than it was among well-educated individuals. Among middle-aged individuals, having calculus or a periodontal pocket was more likely in men (OR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.6–2.0) and in illiterate subjects (OR = 6.3, 95% CI = 5.1–7.8) than it was for their counterparts. Among young adults, having 28 teeth was more (p < 0.05) prevalent among men (72% vs. 68% for women), urban residents (71% vs. 67% for rural residents), and those with a high level of education (73% vs. 60% for those with a low level). Among middle-aged individuals, having a functional dentition was associated with younger age (OR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.7−2.5) and higher level of education (OR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.6−2.1). Of middle-aged individuals, 2% of 35- to 39-year-olds and 5% of those aged 40 to 44 were edentulous. Among the dentate subjects (n = 7,925), prosthodontic rehabilitation was more prevalent (p < 0.001) among women, urban residents, and those with a high level of education than it was among their counterparts. Among those having 1 to 19 teeth, a removable denture was the most common type of prosthodontic rehabilitation. Middle-aged individuals lacking a functional dentition were more likely (OR = 6.0, 95% CI = 4.8−7.6) to have prosthodontic rehabilitation than were those having a functional dentition. In total, 81% of all reported being non-smokers, and 32% of men and 5% of women were current smokers. Heavy smokers were the most likely to have deepened periodontal pockets (max CPI ≥ 3, OR = 2.9, 95% CI = 1.8−4.7) and to have less than 20 teeth (OR = 2.3, 95% CI = 1.5−3.6). The findings indicate impaired oral health status in adult Iranians, particularly those of low socio-economic status and educational level. The high prevalence of dental plaque and calculus and considerable unmet treatment needs call for a preventive population strategy with special emphasis on the improvement of oral self-care and smoking cessation to tackle the underlying risk factors for oral diseases in the Iranian adult population.

Design and testing of stand-specific bucking instructions for use on modern cut-to-length harvesters

This study addresses three important issues in tree bucking optimization in the context of cut-to-length harvesting. (1) Would the fit between the log demand and log output distributions be better if the price and/or demand matrices controlling the bucking decisions on modern cut-to-length harvesters were adjusted to the unique conditions of each individual stand? (2) In what ways can we generate stand and product specific price and demand matrices? (3) What alternatives do we have to measure the fit between the log demand and log output distributions, and what would be an ideal goodness-of-fit measure? Three iterative search systems were developed for seeking stand-specific price and demand matrix sets: (1) A fuzzy logic control system for calibrating the price matrix of one log product for one stand at a time (the stand-level one-product approach); (2) a genetic algorithm system for adjusting the price matrices of one log product in parallel for several stands (the forest-level one-product approach); and (3) a genetic algorithm system for dividing the overall demand matrix of each of the several log products into stand-specific sub-demands simultaneously for several stands and products (the forest-level multi-product approach). The stem material used for testing the performance of the stand-specific price and demand matrices against that of the reference matrices was comprised of 9 155 Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) sawlog stems gathered by harvesters from 15 mature spruce-dominated stands in southern Finland. The reference price and demand matrices were either direct copies or slightly modified versions of those used by two Finnish sawmilling companies. Two types of stand-specific bucking matrices were compiled for each log product. One was from the harvester-collected stem profiles and the other was from the pre-harvest inventory data. Four goodness-of-fit measures were analyzed for their appropriateness in determining the similarity between the log demand and log output distributions: (1) the apportionment degree (index), (2) the chi-square statistic, (3) Laspeyres quantity index, and (4) the price-weighted apportionment degree. The study confirmed that any improvement in the fit between the log demand and log output distributions can only be realized at the expense of log volumes produced. Stand-level pre-control of price matrices was found to be advantageous, provided the control is done with perfect stem data. Forest-level pre-control of price matrices resulted in no improvement in the cumulative apportionment degree. Cutting stands under the control of stand-specific demand matrices yielded a better total fit between the demand and output matrices at the forest level than was obtained by cutting each stand with non-stand-specific reference matrices. The theoretical and experimental analyses suggest that none of the three alternative goodness-of-fit measures clearly outperforms the traditional apportionment degree measure. Keywords: harvesting, tree bucking optimization, simulation, fuzzy control, genetic algorithms, goodness-of-fit

Structural analyses of (1->3),(1->4)-β-D-glucan of oats and barley

The structures of (1→3),(1→4)-β-D-glucans of oat bran, whole-grain oats and barley and processed foods were analysed. Various methods of hydrolysis of β-glucan, the content of insoluble fibre of whole grains of oats and barley and the solution behaviour of oat and barley β-glucans were studied. The isolated soluble β-glucans of oat bran and whole-grain oats and barley were hydrolysed with lichenase, an enzyme specific for (1→3),(1→4)-β-D-β-glucans. The amounts of oligosaccharides produced from bran were analysed with capillary electrophoresis and those from whole-grains with high-performance anion-exchange chromatography with pulse-amperometric detection. The main products were 3-O-β-cellobiosyl-D-glucose and 3-O-β-cellotriosyl-D-glucose, the oligosaccharides which have a degree of polymerisation denoted by DP3 and DP4. Small differences were detected between soluble and insoluble β-glucans and also between β-glucans of oats and barley. These differences can only be seen in the DP3:DP4 ratio which was higher for barley than for oat and also higher for insoluble than for soluble β-glucan. A greater proportion of barley β-glucan remained insoluble than of oat β-glucan. The molar masses of soluble β-glucans of oats and barley were the same as were those of insoluble β-glucans of oats and barley. To analyse the effects of cooking, baking, fermentation and drying, β-glucan was isolated from porridge, bread and fermentate and also from their starting materials. More β-glucan was released after cooking and less after baking. Drying decreased the extractability for bread and fermentate but increased it for porridge. Different hydrolysis methods of β-glucan were compared. Acid hydrolysis and the modified AOAC method gave similar results. The results of hydrolysis with lichenase gave higher recoveries than the other two. The combination of lichenase hydrolysis and high-performance anion-exchange chromatography with pulse-amperometric detection was found best for the analysis of β-glucan content. The content of insoluble fibre was higher for barley than for oats and the amount of β-glucan in the insoluble fibre fraction was higher for oats than for barley. The flow properties of both water and aqueous cuoxam solutions of oat and barley β-glucans were studied. Shear thinning was stronger for the water solutions of oat β-glucan than for barley β-glucan. In aqueous cuoxam shear thinning was not observed at the same concentration as in water but only with high concentration solutions. Then the viscosity of barley β-glucan was slightly higher than that of oat β-glucan. The oscillatory measurements showed that the crossover point of the G´ and G´´ curves was much lower for barley β-glucan than for oat β-glucan indicating a higher tendency towards solid-like behaviour for barley β-glucan than for oat β-glucan.

Effects of dietary phosphorus and calcium-to-phosphorus ratio on calcium and bone metabolism in healthy 20- to 43-year-old Finnish women

Dietary habits have changed during the past decades towards an increasing consumption of processed foods, which has notably increased not only total dietary phosphorus (P) intake, but also intake of P from phosphate additives. While the intake of calcium (Ca) in many Western countries remains below recommended levels (800 mg/d), the usual daily P intake in a typical Western diet exceeds by 2- to 3-fold the dietary guidelines (600 mg/d). The effects of high P intake in healthy humans have been investigated seldom. In this thesis healthy 20- to 43-year-old women were studied. In the first controlled study (n = 14), we examined the effects of P doses, and in a cross-sectional study (n = 147) the associations of habitual P intakes with Ca and bone metabolism. In this same cross-sectional study, we also investigated whether differences exist between dietary P originating from natural P sources and phosphate additives. The second controlled study (n = 12) investigated whether by increasing the Ca intake, the effects of a high P intake could be reduced. The associations of habitual dietary calcium-to-phosphorus ratios (Ca:P ratio) with Ca and bone metabolism were determined in a cross-sectional study design (n = 147). In the controlled study, the oral intake of P doses (495, 745, 1245 and 1995 mg/d) with a low Ca intake (250 mg/d) increased serum parathyroid hormone (S-PTH) concentration in a dose-dependent manner. In addition, the highest P dose decreased serum ionized calcium (S-iCa) concentration and bone formation and increased bone resorption. In the second controlled study with a dietary P intake of 1850 mg/d, by increasing the Ca intake from 480 mg/d to 1080 mg/d and then to 1680 mg/d, the S-PTH concentration decreased, the S-iCa concentration increased and bone resorption decreased dose-dependently. However, not even the highest Ca intake could counteract the effect of high dietary P on bone formation, as indicated by unchanged bone formation activity. In the cross-sectional studies, a higher habitual dietary P intake (>1650 mg/d) was associated with lower S-iCa and higher S-PTH concentrations. The consumption of phosphate additive-containing foods was associated with a higher S-PTH concentration. Moreover, habitual low dietary Ca:P ratios (≤0.50, molar ratio) were associated with higher S-PTH concentrations and 24-h urinary Ca excretions, suggesting that low dietary Ca:P ratios may interfere with homeostasis of Ca metabolism and increase bone resorption. In summary, excessive dietary P intake in healthy Finnish women seems to be detrimental to Ca and bone metabolism, especially when dietary Ca intake is low. The results indicate that by increasing dietary Ca intake to the recommended level, the negative effects of high P intake could be diminished, but not totally prevented. These findings imply that phosphate additives may be more harmful than natural P. Thus, reduction of an excessively high dietary P intake is also beneficial for healthy individuals.

Below-ground processes in meadow soil under elevated ozone and carbon dioxide : - Greenhouse gas fluxes, N cycling and microbial communities

This thesis focuses on how elevated CO2 and/or O3 affect the below-ground processes in semi-natural vegetation, with an emphasis on greenhouse gases, N cycling and microbial communities. Meadow mesocosms mimicking lowland hay meadows in Jokioinen, SW Finland, were enclosed in open-top chambers and exposed to ambient and elevated levels of O3 (40-50 ppb) and/or CO2 (+100 ppm) for three consecutive growing season, while chamberless plots were used as chamber controls. Chemical and microbiological analyses as well as laboratory incubations of the mesocosm soils under different treatments were used to study the effects of O3 and/or CO2. Artificially constructed mesocosms were also compared with natural meadows with regards to GHG fluxes and soil characteristics. In addition to research conducted at the ecosystem level (i.e. the mesocosm study), soil microbial communities were also examined in a pot experiment with monocultures of individual species. By comparing mesocosms with similar natural plant assemblage, it was possible to demonstrate that artificial mesocosms simulated natural habitats, even though some differences were found in the CH4 oxidation rate, soil mineral N, and total C and N concentrations in the soil. After three growing seasons of fumigations, the fluxes of N2O, CH4, and CO2 were decreased in the NF+O3 treatment, and the soil NH4+-N and mineral N concentrations were lower in the NF+O3 treatment than in the NF control treatment. The mesocosm soil microbial communities were affected negatively by the NF+O3 treatment, as the total, bacterial, actinobacterial, and fungal PLFA biomasses as well as the fungal:bacterial biomass ratio decreased under elevated O3. In the pot survey, O3 decreased the total, bacterial, actinobacterial, and mycorrhizal PLFA biomasses in the bulk soil and affected the microbial community structure in the rhizosphere of L. pratensis, whereas the bulk soil and rhizosphere of the other monoculture, A. capillaris, remained unaffected by O3. Elevated CO2 caused only minor and insignificant changes in the GHG fluxes, N cycling, and the microbial community structure. In the present study, the below-ground processes were modified after three years of moderate O3 enhancement. A tentative conclusion is that a decrease in N availability may have feedback effects on plant growth and competition and affect the N cycling of the whole meadow ecosystem. Ecosystem level changes occur slowly, and multiplication of the responses might be expected in the long run.