Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.

Collaborative Design in a Virtual Learning Environment : Three Design Experiments in Textile Teacher Education

The aim of the study was to analyze and facilitate collaborative design in a virtual learning environment (VLE). Discussions of virtual design in design education have typically focused on technological or communication issues, not on pedagogical issues. Yet in order to facilitate collaborative design, it is also necessary to address the pedagogical issues related to the virtual design process. In this study, the progressive inquiry model of collaborative designing was used to give a structural level of facilitation to students working in the VLE. According to this model, all aspects of inquiry, such as creating the design context, constructing a design idea, evaluating the idea, and searching for new information, can be shared in a design community. The study consists of three design projects: 1) designing clothes for premature babies, 2) designing conference bags for an international conference, and 3) designing tactile books for visually impaired children. These design projects constituted a continuum of design experiments, each of which highlighted certain perspectives on collaborative designing. The design experiments were organized so that the participants worked in design teams, both face-to-face and virtually. The first design experiment focused on peer collaboration among textile teacher students in the VLE. The second design experiment took into consideration end-users needs by using a participatory design approach. The third design experiment intensified computer-supported collaboration between students and domain experts. The virtual learning environments, in these design experiments, were designed to support knowledge-building pedagogy and progressive inquiry learning. These environments enabled a detailed recording of all computer-mediated interactions and data related to virtual designing. The data analysis was based on qualitative content analysis of design statements in the VLE. This study indicated four crucial issues concerning collaborative design in the VLE in craft and design education. Firstly, using the collaborative design process in craft and design education gives rise to special challenges of building learning communities, creating appropriate design tasks for them, and providing tools for collaborative activities. Secondly, the progressive inquiry model of collaborative designing can be used as a scaffold support for design thinking and for reflection on the design process. Thirdly, participation and distributed expertise can be facilitated by considering the key stakeholders who are related to the design task or design context, and getting them to participate in virtual designing. Fourthly, in the collaborative design process, it is important that team members create and improve visual and technical ideas together, not just agree or disagree about proposed ideas. Therefore, viewing the VLE as a medium for collaborative construction of the design objects appears crucial in order to understand and facilitate the complex processes in collaborative designing.

Language universals and linguistic complexity : Three case studies in core argument marking

In this dissertation I study language complexity from a typological perspective. Since the structuralist era, it has been assumed that local complexity differences in languages are balanced out in cross-linguistic comparisons and that complexity is not affected by the geopolitical or sociocultural aspects of the speech community. However, these assumptions have seldom been studied systematically from a typological point of view. My objective is to define complexity so that it is possible to compare it across languages and to approach its variation with the methods of quantitative typology. My main empirical research questions are: i) does language complexity vary in any systematic way in local domains, and ii) can language complexity be affected by the geographical or social environment? These questions are studied in three articles, whose findings are summarized in the introduction to the dissertation. In order to enable cross-language comparison, I measure complexity as the description length of the regularities in an entity; I separate it from difficulty, focus on local instead of global complexity, and break it up into different types. This approach helps avoid the problems that plagued earlier metrics of language complexity. My approach to grammar is functional-typological in nature, and the theoretical framework is basic linguistic theory. I delimit the empirical research functionally to the marking of core arguments (the basic participants in the sentence). I assess the distributions of complexity in this domain with multifactorial statistical methods and use different sampling strategies, implementing, for instance, the Greenbergian view of universals as diachronic laws of type preference. My data come from large and balanced samples (up to approximately 850 languages), drawn mainly from reference grammars. The results suggest that various significant trends occur in the marking of core arguments in regard to complexity and that complexity in this domain correlates with population size. These results provide evidence that linguistic patterns interact among themselves in terms of complexity, that language structure adapts to the social environment, and that there may be cognitive mechanisms that limit complexity locally. My approach to complexity and language universals can therefore be successfully applied to empirical data and may serve as a model for further research in these areas.

Huellas de Eros y Thánatos en la narrativa de Diamela Eltit : La palabra en movimiento en el juego entre tropos, metáforas y deconstrucciones lingüísticas

Väitöskirja analysoi espanjan kielen dekonstruktioita ruumiin metaforista ja troopeista koostuvassa aineistossa chileläisen kirjailijan Diamela Eltitin (1949 -) neljässä romaanissa: Lumpérica (1983), Vaca sagrada (1991), El infarto del alma (1994) ja Los trabajadores de la muerte (1998). Näkökulma on kielen muutoksessa Eltitin proosassa 1980- ja 1990-luvuilla alkaen kokeellisesta huippuvaiheesta 1983, jolloin hän julkaisi esikoisromaaninsa Lumpérica. Tutkimus korostaa Eltitin romaanien historiallista arvoa, kirjallisuuden tapaa murtaa kielen rakenteita ja sitä miten tämä murros kytkeytyy taideteoreettiseen muutokseen kulttuuridiskursseissa. Tutkimus tarkastelee Eltitin kehityskaarta kenraali Augusto Pinochetin sotilasvallankaappauksesta 1973 halki sotilashallituksen kauden (1973-1990) aina kansalaisyhteiskunnan vahvistumiseen ja vuoteen 1998. Tutkimus analysoi ruumiin troopeista ja metaforista koostuvaa tutkimusaineistoa lingvistiikan, kirjallisuustieteen, historian ja sukupuolen tutkimuksen monitieteisessä viitekehyksessä. Sen vuoksi väitöskirja liittyy espanjalaisen filologian, yleisen kirjallisuustieteen, Latinalaisen Amerikan tutkimuksen ja naistutkimuksen oppiaineisiin. Kolme tärkeintä oppiteoreettista runkoa ovat lingvistinen strukturalismi, dekonstruktio ja feministiset kirjallisuusteoriat. Dekonstruktiivinen lähestymistapa tekstiin korostaa kielen merkityksen muodostumisen filosofista perustaa. Se pyrkii selvittämään, miten merkitys muodostuu kirjoittajan, tekstin ja lukijan välillä. Tekstikritiikki koostuu semanttisesta ja dekonstruktiivisesta tekstianalyysistä, jonka metodologisen mallin perusta on tanskalaisen kielitieteilijän Louis Hjelmslevin (1899-1965) kielitieteellinen malli. Väitös ei käytä mallia suoraan, vaan soveltaa sitä kaunokirjallisuuden tutkimukseen. Oppiteoreettisen viitekehyksen osalta tutkimus sijoittuu strukturalismin ja poststrukturalismin murrokseen. Tutkimus korostaa Eltitin radikaalia muotokieltä ja teatraalisuutta, hänen kielensä visuaalisuutta ja ruumiin metaforien eroottista jännitettä, mikä ilmenee mm. falloksen metaforaksi tulkitun hehkuvan valon kuvissa romaanissa Lumpérica. Vanhat kreikkalaiset myytit Éros ja Thánatos kasvavat esille länsimaisen taidehistorian perinteestä ja kontekstualisoituvat uusiksi kielikuviksi Chilen kirjallisessa maaperässä. Ne muodostavat Eltitin taiteellisen tuotannon pysyvän aihepiirin ja luovat teoksiin synkkää ja karua virettä sekä tummia ja eroottisia sävyjä. Tutkimus osoittaa, että Eltit dekonstruoi kieltä, mutta dekonstruktiot eivät ole jatkuvia eivätkä samanlaisia kaikissa romaaneissa. Kielellisten dekonstruktioiden variaatio on laaja eikä Eltit murra kielen syntaktisia ja morfologisia rakenteita kaikissa teksteissään. Tutkimuksen perusteella väitän, että Eltitin kirjoituksesta puhuttaessa useat tutkijat käyttävät epämääräisesti dekonstruktio-termiä. Useiden tutkijoiden toteamus dekonstruktiosta Diamela Eltitin kirjallisessa tuotannossa pysyvänä piirteenä on epätäsmällinen. Sen sijaan dekonstruktiivinen kirjoitus tarkoittaa Eltitillä laajasti vaihtelevaa lähestymistapaa kieleen, mikä ilmenee kehityslinjana hänen tuotannossaan ja eri tavoin jokaisessa teoksessa.

Soil carbon modelling as a tool for carbon balance studies in forestry

Soils represent a remarkable stock of carbon, and forest soils are estimated to hold half of the global stock of soil carbon. Topical concern about the effects of climate change and forest management on soil carbon as well as practical reporting requirements set by climate conventions have created a need to assess soil carbon stock changes reliably and transparently. The large spatial variability of soil carbon commensurate with relatively slow changes in stocks hinders the assessment of soil carbon stocks and their changes by direct measurements. Models therefore widely serve to estimate carbon stocks and stock changes in soils. This dissertation aimed to develop the soil carbon model YASSO for upland forest soils. The model was aimed to take into account the most important processes controlling the decomposition in soils, yet remain simple enough to ensure its practical applicability in different applications. The model structure and assumptions were presented and the model parameters were defined with empirical measurements. The model was evaluated by studying the sensitivities of the model results to parameter values, by estimating the precision of the results with an uncertainty analysis, and by assessing the accuracy of the model by comparing the predictions against measured data and to the results of an alternative model. The model was applied to study the effects of intensified biomass extraction on the forest carbon balance and to estimate the effects of soil carbon deficit on net greenhouse gas emissions of energy use of forest residues. The model was also applied in an inventory based method to assess the national scale forest carbon balance for Finland’s forests from 1922 to 2004. YASSO managed to describe sufficiently the effects of both the variable litter and climatic conditions on decomposition. When combined with the stand models or other systems providing litter information, the dynamic approach of the model proved to be powerful for estimating changes in soil carbon stocks on different scales. The climate dependency of the model, the effects of nitrogen on decomposition and forest growth as well as the effects of soil texture on soil carbon stock dynamics are areas for development when considering the applicability of the model to different research questions, different land use types and wider geographic regions. Intensified biomass extraction affects soil carbon stocks, and these changes in stocks should be taken into account when considering the net effects of forest residue utilisation as energy. On a national scale, soil carbon stocks play an important role in forest carbon balances.

Slogans of Change : Three Outlooks on Finnish Television

The study Slogans of Change. Three Outlooks on Finnish Television Contents is concerned with alleged changes of television contents during the 1990s and 2000s, such as dumbing down, tabloidisation, entertainisation , and the like. Specifically, the focus is on the ways these changes might manifest in Finnish television. The aim of the study has been threefold: 1. To operationalise public and academic discussions about changes via specific slogans emerging from the debates; 2. Consequently, to study the slogans empirically and reflect on the findings with earlier research, including studies on institutional and audience-related aspects; 3. Finally, to suggest what the findings might mean regarding discussions about television s role, and what kinds of slogans or concepts might best serve future discussions and research. The empirical outlooks presented in this study offer analyses with three different sets of opposing slogans of change. The outlooks also follow three different traditions of the study of television. The first outlook focuses on quantity, as it gives a longitudinal (1993-2004), macro-level view on programme structures. The methodological approach is derived from media economic and policy studies. The claims that frame the analysis are convergence versus diversification of programme structures. The second outlook provides quantitative and qualitative views on the characteristics and quality  the term signifying essence as well as worth  of Finnish television journalism during sample weeks from the years 2002 and 2003. This outlook follows the traditions of quantitative content analysis found in journalism studies coupled with descriptive qualitative content analyses. The slogans reflected in this section are the lightening or widening of journalism. The third outlook narrows down the material and focuses at a micro-level on form; that is, communicative conventions in a small array of selected programmes in 1993, 2000 and during 2002-2004. The analyses have been inspired by the method of conversation analysis of verbal interaction, and coupled with qualitative close readings, with the focus of different communicative situations in the programmes. The catchphrases employed in this part are emotainment versus democratainment, coupled with more specific claims of discursive hybridisation and conversationalisation. The findings depict that, empirically, changes in Finnish television contents are not clear linear trends and cannot easily be moulded into neat slogans. The quantitative outlook on programme output during 1993-2004 depicts a tendency towards differentiation of channels, paving the way for the multi-channel digital system. The change in programme structures, however, is not dramatic on the level of total output. The second outlook suggests that the dualistic concepts, such as the pair information-entertainment, are not sufficient in understanding the array and changes of programmes that could be called journalism. The outlook on communicative conventions highlights hybridisation in the manner of television talk and its relation to broader debates on contents. Despite the three dissimilar empirical approaches, unifying aspects emerge. The outlooks suggest, albeit in different ways, tendencies toward distinction and polarisation. This study proposes that in order to facilitate a more nuanced understanding of the changes in television contents, dualistic slogans should be replaced with a multi-dimensional understanding of the concept of diversity.

Verkkomedian käyttö ja tutkiminen : Iltalehti Online 1995-2001

Marja Heinonen s dissertation Verkkomedian käyttö ja tutkiminen. Iltalehti Online 1995-2001 describes the usage of new internet based news service Iltalehti Online during its first years of existence, 1995-2001. The study focuses on the content of the service and users attitudes towards the new media and its contents. Heinonen has also analyzed and described the research methods that can be used in the research of any new media phenomenon when there is no historical perspective to do the research. Heinonen has created a process model for the research of net medium, which is based on a multidimensional approach. She has chosen an iterative research method inspired by Sudweeks and Simoff s CEDA-methodology in which qualitative and quantitative methods take turns both creating results and new research questions. The dissertation discusses and describes the possibilities of combining several research methods in the study of online news media. On general level it discusses the methodological possibilities of researching a completely new media form when there is no historical perspective. The result of these discussions is in favour for the multidimensional methods. The empiric research was built around three cases of Iltalehti Online among its users: log analysis 1996-1999, interviews 1999 and clustering 2000-2001. Even though the results of different cases were somewhat conflicting here are the central results from the analysis of Iltalehti Online 1995-2001: - Reading was strongly determined by the gender. - The structure of Iltalehti Online guided the reading strongly. - People did not make a clear distinction in content between news and entertainment. - Users created new habits in their everyday life during the first years of using Iltalehti Online. These habits were categorized as follows: - break between everyday routines - established habit - new practice within the rhythm of the day - In the clustering of the users sports, culture and celebrities were the most distinguishing contents. Users did not move across these borders as much as within them. The dissertation gives contribution to the development of multidimensional research methods in the field of emerging phenomena in media field. It is also a unique description of a phase of development in media history through an unique research material. There is no such information (logs + demographics) available of any other Finnish online news media. Either from the first years or today.

Perspectives on knowledge creating inquiry in higher education

Higher education is faced with the challenge of strengthening students competencies for the constantly evolving technology-mediated practices of knowledge work. The knowledge creation approach to learning (Paavola et al., 2004; Hakkarainen et al., 2004) provides a theoretical tool to address learning and teaching organized around complex problems and the development of shared knowledge objects, such as reports, products, and new practices. As in professional work practices, it appears necessary to design sufficient open-endedness and complexity for students teamwork in order to generate unpredictable and both practically and epistemologically challenging situations. The studies of the thesis examine what kinds of practices are observed when student teams engage in knowledge creating inquiry processes, how the students themselves perceive the process, and how to facilitate inquiry with technology-mediation, tutoring, and pedagogical models. Overall, 20 student teams collaboration processes and productions were investigated in detail. This collaboration took place in teams or small groups of 3-6 students from multiple domain backgrounds. Two pedagogical models were employed to provide heuristic guidance for the inquiry processes: the progressive inquiry model and the distributed project model. Design-based research methodology was employed in combination with case study as the research design. Database materials from the courses virtual learning environment constituted the main body of data, with additional data from students self-reflections and student and teacher interviews. Study I examined the role of technology mediation and tutoring in directing students knowledge production in a progressive inquiry process. The research investigated how the scale of scaffolding related to the nature of knowledge produced and the deepening of the question explanation process. In Study II, the metaskills of knowledge-creating inquiry were explored as a challenge for higher education: metaskills refers to the individual, collective, and object-centered aspects of monitoring collaborative inquiry. Study III examined the design of two courses and how the elaboration of shared objects unfolded based on the two pedagogical models. Study IV examined how the arranged concept-development project for external customers promoted practices of distributed, partially virtual, project work, and how the students coped with the knowledge creation challenge. Overall, important indicators of knowledge creating inquiry were the following: new versions of knowledge objects and artifacts demonstrated a deepening inquiry process; and the various productions were co-created through iterations of negotiations, drafting, and versioning by the team members. Students faced challenges of establishing a collective commitment, devising practices to co-author and advance their reports, dealing with confusion, and managing culturally diverse teams. The progressive inquiry model, together with tutoring and technology, facilitated asking questions, generating explanations, and refocusing lines of inquiry. The involvement of the customers was observed to provide a strong motivation for the teams. On the evidence, providing team-specific guidance, exposing students to models of scientific argumentation and expert work practices, and furnishing templates for the intended products appear to be fruitful ways to enhance inquiry processes. At the institutional level, educators do well to explore ways of developing collaboration with external customers, public organizations or companies, and between educational units in order to enhance educational practices of knowledge creating inquiry.

Young Actors in Transnational Agoras : Multi-sited Ethnography of Cosmopolitan Micropolitical Orientations

This study examines young people s political participation in transnational meetings. Methodologically the study aims to shed light on multi-sited global ethnography. Young people are viewed here as a social age group sensitive to critical, alternative and even radical political participation. The diversity of the young actors and their actions is captured by using several different methods. What is more, the study spurs us coming from the Global North to develop social science research towards methodological cosmopolitanism and to consider our research practices from a moral cosmopolitan perspective. The research sites are the EU Presidency Youth Event (2006 Hyvinkää, Finland), the Global Young Greens Founding Conference (2007 Nairobi, Kenya), the European Social Forum (2008 Malmö, Sweden) and three World Social Forums (2006 Bamako, Mali; 2007 Nairobi Kenya and 2009 Belém, Brazil). The data consists of participant observation, documents and media articles of the meetings, interviews, photos, video, and internet data. This multidisciplinary study combines youth research, development studies, performative social science and political sociology. In this research the diverse field of youth political participation in transnational agoras is studied by using a cross-table of cosmopolitan resources (or the lack of them) and everydaymakers expert citizen dichotomy. First, the young participants of the EU Presidency youth event are studied as an example of expert citizens with cosmopolitan resources (these resources include, for example, language skills, higher education and international social network). Second, the study analyses those everyday-makers who use performative politics to demonstrate their political missions here and now. But in order to make the social movement global they need cosmopolitan resources to be able to use the social media tools and work globally. Third, the study reflects upon the difficulties of reaching those actors who lack cosmopolitan resources, either everyday-makers or expert citizens. The go-along method and the use of the interpreters are shown as ways to reach these young people s political missions. Fourth, the research underlines the importance of contact zones (i.e. spaces or situations where the aforementioned orientations and their differences temporarily disappear or weaken) for deeper democracy and for boosted dialogue between different kinds of participants. Keywords: political participation, young people, multi-sited ethnography, youth research, political sociology, development studies, performative social science