Mikä yliopisto-opiskelijaa kiihdyttää? : Opiskeluympäristöjen tutkimusta CASS-kokemusotantamenetelmällä flow-teoriaa ja ydintunneteorioita soveltaen

Flow experience is often defined either as an experience of high concentration and enjoyment or as a situation, where high challenges are matched with high skills. According to core-emotion theories, the experience of any emotion contains two core emotions: valence and arousal. Through an accurate mathematical model, the present study investigated, whether the experience of concentration and enjoyment is related to situations where both challenge and skills are high and in balance. Further, it was investigated what sort of core emotions are related to differing relationships between challenge and skills. Finally, university students’ experiences of their natural study environments were described in terms of core emotions and in terms of relationships between challenge and skills. Participants were 55 university students who participated two weeks research period. Altogether 3367 questionnaire answers were collected with the CASS experience-sampling method, operating in 3G-mobile phones. The relationship between challenge and skills (competence) was defined in an exact way in polar coordinates. An enjoyable and concentrated flow experience was defined as a sum variable of absorption, interest and enthusiasm. Core emotions were calculated with factor analysis from nine emotion variables. As expected, an experience of concentration and enjoyment was, on average, related to the situations where both challenge and skills were high and in balance. This was not, however, the case in every situation. Thus, it should be taken into consideration how flow experience is operationalised in experience sampling studies. When flow experience was defined as a situation of high challenge and high skills, it was often related to high valence and arousal emotions such as excitement or enthusiasm. A happier or a more tranquil enjoyment was related to situations of moderate challenge and high skills. Experiences differed clearly between various natural study environments. At lectures students were often bored or mentally absent, and did not experience challenges. In a small group students were often excited or enthusiastic, and showed optimal balance between challenge and skills. At library students felt satisfied and were engaged in highly challenging work.

Service-based Requirements for Future Mobile Networks

The mobile phone has, as a device, taken the world by storm in the past decade; from only 136 million phones globally in 1996, it is now estimated that by the end of 2008 roughly half of the worlds population will own a mobile phone. Over the years, the capabilities of the phones as well as the networks have increased tremendously, reaching the point where the devices are better called miniature computers rather than simply mobile phones. The mobile industry is currently undertaking several initiatives of developing new generations of mobile network technologies; technologies that to a large extent focus at offering ever-increasing data rates. This thesis seeks to answer the question of whether the future mobile networks in development and the future mobile services are in sync; taking a forward-looking timeframe of five to eight years into the future, will there be services that will need the high-performance new networks being planned? The question is seen to be especially pertinent in light of slower-than-expected takeoff of 3G data services. Current and future mobile services are analyzed from two viewpoints; first, looking at the gradual, evolutionary development of the services and second, through seeking to identify potential revolutionary new mobile services. With information on both current and future mobile networks as well as services, a network capability - service requirements mapping is performed to identify which services will work in which networks. Based on the analysis, it is far from certain whether the new mobile networks, especially those planned for deployment after HSPA, will be needed as soon as they are being currently roadmapped. The true service-based demand for the "beyond HSPA" technologies may be many years into the future - or, indeed, may never materialize thanks to the increasing deployment of local area wireless broadband technologies.

Service Composition on a Mobile Phone

With the recent increase in interest in service-oriented architectures (SOA) and Web services, developing applications with the Web services paradigm has become feasible. Web services are self-describing, platform-independent computational elements. New applications can be assembled from a set of previously created Web services, which are composed together to make a service that uses its components to perform a certain task. This is the idea of service composition. To bring service composition to a mobile phone, I have created Interactive Service Composer for mobile phones. With Interactive Service Composer, the user is able to build service compositions on his mobile phone, consisting of Web services or services that are available from the mobile phone itself. The service compositions are reusable and can be saved in the phone's memory. Previously saved compositions can also be used in new compositions. While developing applications for mobile phones has been possible for some time, the usability of the solutions is not the same as when developing for desktop computers. When developing for mobile phones, the developer has to more carefully consider the decisions he is going to make with the program he is developing. With the lack of processing power and memory, the applications cannot function as well as on desktop PCs. On the other hand, this does not remove the appeal of developing applications for mobile devices.

A Decentralized Session Management Framework for Heterogeneous Ad-Hoc and Fixed Networks

Wireless technologies are continuously evolving. Second generation cellular networks have gained worldwide acceptance. Wireless LANs are commonly deployed in corporations or university campuses, and their diffusion in public hotspots is growing. Third generation cellular systems are yet to affirm everywhere; still, there is an impressive amount of research ongoing for deploying beyond 3G systems. These new wireless technologies combine the characteristics of WLAN based and cellular networks to provide increased bandwidth. The common direction where all the efforts in wireless technologies are headed is towards an IP-based communication. Telephony services have been the killer application for cellular systems; their evolution to packet-switched networks is a natural path. Effective IP telephony signaling protocols, such as the Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) and the H 323 protocol are needed to establish IP-based telephony sessions. However, IP telephony is just one service example of IP-based communication. IP-based multimedia sessions are expected to become popular and offer a wider range of communication capabilities than pure telephony. In order to conjoin the advances of the future wireless technologies with the potential of IP-based multimedia communication, the next step would be to obtain ubiquitous communication capabilities. According to this vision, people must be able to communicate also when no support from an infrastructured network is available, needed or desired. In order to achieve ubiquitous communication, end devices must integrate all the capabilities necessary for IP-based distributed and decentralized communication. Such capabilities are currently missing. For example, it is not possible to utilize native IP telephony signaling protocols in a totally decentralized way. This dissertation presents a solution for deploying the SIP protocol in a decentralized fashion without support of infrastructure servers. The proposed solution is mainly designed to fit the needs of decentralized mobile environments, and can be applied to small scale ad-hoc networks or also bigger networks with hundreds of nodes. A framework allowing discovery of SIP users in ad-hoc networks and the establishment of SIP sessions among them, in a fully distributed and secure way, is described and evaluated. Security support allows ad-hoc users to authenticate the sender of a message, and to verify the integrity of a received message. The distributed session management framework has been extended in order to achieve interoperability with the Internet, and the native Internet applications. With limited extensions to the SIP protocol, we have designed and experimentally validated a SIP gateway allowing SIP signaling between ad-hoc networks with private addressing space and native SIP applications in the Internet. The design is completed by an application level relay that permits instant messaging sessions to be established in heterogeneous environments. The resulting framework constitutes a flexible and effective approach for the pervasive deployment of real time applications.

Viivesietoisten verkkojen nykytila ja tulevaisuuden haasteet

Delay and disruption tolerant networks (DTNs) are computer networks where round trip delays and error rates are high and disconnections frequent. Examples of these extreme networks are space communications, sensor networks, connecting rural villages to the Internet and even interconnecting commodity portable wireless devices and mobile phones. Basic elements of delay tolerant networks are a store-and-forward message transfer resembling traditional mail delivery, an opportunistic and intermittent routing, and an extensible cross-region resource naming service. Individual nodes of the network take an active part in routing the traffic and provide in-network data storage for application data that flows through the network. Application architecture for delay tolerant networks differs also from those used in traditional networks. It has become feasible to design applications that are network-aware and opportunistic, taking an advantage of different network connection speeds and capabilities. This might change some of the basic paradigms of network application design. DTN protocols will also support in designing applications which depend on processes to be persistent over reboots and power failures. DTN protocols could also be applicable to traditional networks in cases where high tolerance to delays or errors would be desired. It is apparent that challenged networks also challenge the traditional strictly layered model of network application design. This thesis provides an extensive introduction to delay tolerant networking concepts and applications. Most attention is given to challenging problems of routing and application architecture. Finally, future prospects of DTN applications and implementations are envisioned through recent research results and an interview with an active researcher of DTN networks.

Tuntemattomista vertaistuttaviksi : Esikoisäitien ja -isien perhevalmennusprosessi Espoon uudentyyppisessä perhevalmennuskokeilussa

From Strangers to Peer Acquaintances Mothers and Fathers with a First Born and their Experiences of the New Family Training Process in Espoo This research is composed of two interrelated case studies. The first case was a family training experiment conducted in the City of Espoo during 2003 2005. In the experiment, the content, duration and procedures were modified from the previous family training policy. The new family training system stressed peer group activities and the peer support formed between the participating mothers and fathers. The second case comprised the stories of 14 parents about the family training process. The aim of the research was to find out whether peer group activities and support was demonstrated between the participating parents during the family training process. The second case and its narrative material constituted the main research material. The narrative material was collected by interviews. Eight mothers and six fathers were interviewed twice within a year between their sessions. The parents also filled in questionnaires about their daily life and participated in a drawing exercise, in which they visualized how they experienced the family training during the antenatal period, labour and the postnatal period. A narrative approach was applied to the analysis of the narrative material. The analysis consisted of several stages. In the final stage, the fathers main story was combined with all the participating fathers personal stories. The mothers main story was also constructed from their personal stories. The study implicated that in some parts the mothers and fathers main stories were similar. During the family training, previously unacquainted parents became peer acquaintances. In particular, the first born as a focus created interaction and cooperation among the parents. Parents in similar circumstances became significant to each other. Different figurations formed during the family training. However, the main stories did not always entwine. The mothers were in contact with the other mothers almost daily using mobile phones, email and mother-child activities. The fathers employed outside home met each other only during the family training meetings, but felt being supported by the other fathers. Some families visited one another outside of the family training. This new type of family training had characteristics typical of the project society. The parents peer activities were based on trust, negotiation and contracts between partners. The parents evaluated the benefits of participation in the family training. If they appreciated the activities with peers and peer compassion, they were willing to participate in the family training during the postnatal period. Keywords: family training, parenthood, motherhood, fatherhood, peer, peer group, peer support, social support, social relationships, figurations, the project society, pastoral power, epistolary power

Information Technology in Construction – Domain Definition and Research Issues

This article discusses the scope of research on the application of information technology in construction (ITC). A model of the information and material activities which together constitute the construction process is presented, using the IDEF0 activity modelling methodology. Information technology is defined to include all kinds of technology used for the storage, transfer and manipulation of information, thus also including devices such as copying machines, faxes and mobile phones. Using the model the domain of ITC research is defined as the use of information technology to facilitate and re-engineer the information process component of construction. Developments during the last decades in IT use in construction is discussed against a background of a simplified model of generic information processing tasks. The scope of ITC is compared with the scopes of research in related areas such as design methodology, construction management and facilities management. Health care is proposed as an interesting alternative (to the often used car manufacturing industry), as an IT application domain to compare with. Some of the key areas of ITC research in recent years; expert systems, company IT strategies, and product modelling are shortly discussed. The article finishes with a short discussion of the problems of applying standard scientific methodology in ITC research, in particular in product model research.

Middleware for Mobile Sensing Applications in Urban Environments

Sensor networks represent an attractive tool to observe the physical world. Networks of tiny sensors can be used to detect a fire in a forest, to monitor the level of pollution in a river, or to check on the structural integrity of a bridge. Application-specific deployments of static-sensor networks have been widely investigated. Commonly, these networks involve a centralized data-collection point and no sharing of data outside the organization that owns it. Although this approach can accommodate many application scenarios, it significantly deviates from the pervasive computing vision of ubiquitous sensing where user applications seamlessly access anytime, anywhere data produced by sensors embedded in the surroundings. With the ubiquity and ever-increasing capabilities of mobile devices, urban environments can help give substance to the ubiquitous sensing vision through Urbanets, spontaneously created urban networks. Urbanets consist of mobile multi-sensor devices, such as smart phones and vehicular systems, public sensor networks deployed by municipalities, and individual sensors incorporated in buildings, roads, or daily artifacts. My thesis is that "multi-sensor mobile devices can be successfully programmed to become the underpinning elements of an open, infrastructure-less, distributed sensing platform that can bring sensor data out of their traditional close-loop networks into everyday urban applications". Urbanets can support a variety of services ranging from emergency and surveillance to tourist guidance and entertainment. For instance, cars can be used to provide traffic information services to alert drivers to upcoming traffic jams, and phones to provide shopping recommender services to inform users of special offers at the mall. Urbanets cannot be programmed using traditional distributed computing models, which assume underlying networks with functionally homogeneous nodes, stable configurations, and known delays. Conversely, Urbanets have functionally heterogeneous nodes, volatile configurations, and unknown delays. Instead, solutions developed for sensor networks and mobile ad hoc networks can be leveraged to provide novel architectures that address Urbanet-specific requirements, while providing useful abstractions that hide the network complexity from the programmer. This dissertation presents two middleware architectures that can support mobile sensing applications in Urbanets. Contory offers a declarative programming model that views Urbanets as a distributed sensor database and exposes an SQL-like interface to developers. Context-aware Migratory Services provides a client-server paradigm, where services are capable of migrating to different nodes in the network in order to maintain a continuous and semantically correct interaction with clients. Compared to previous approaches to supporting mobile sensing urban applications, our architectures are entirely distributed and do not assume constant availability of Internet connectivity. In addition, they allow on-demand collection of sensor data with the accuracy and at the frequency required by every application. These architectures have been implemented in Java and tested on smart phones. They have proved successful in supporting several prototype applications and experimental results obtained in ad hoc networks of phones have demonstrated their feasibility with reasonable performance in terms of latency, memory, and energy consumption.

Microclimate and gas emissions in dairy buildings : Instrumentation, theory and measurements

The aim of this thesis was to develop measurement techniques and systems for measuring air quality and to provide information about air quality conditions and the amount of gaseous emissions from semi-insulated and uninsulated dairy buildings in Finland and Estonia. Specialization and intensification in livestock farming, such as in dairy production, is usually accompanied by an increase in concentrated environmental emissions. In addition to high moisture, the presence of dust and corrosive gases, and widely varying gas concentrations in dairy buildings, Finland and Estonia experience winter temperatures reaching below -40 ºC and summer temperatures above +30 ºC. The adaptation of new technologies for long-term air quality monitoring and measurement remains relatively uncommon in dairy buildings because the construction and maintenance of accurate monitoring systems for long-term use are too expensive for the average dairy farmer to afford. Though the documentation of accurate air quality measurement systems intended mainly for research purposes have been made in the past, standardised methods and the documentation of affordable systems and simple methods for performing air quality and emissions measurements in dairy buildings are unavailable. In this study, we built three measurement systems: 1) a Stationary system with integrated affordable sensors for on-site measurements, 2) a Wireless system with affordable sensors for off-site measurements, and 3) a Mobile system consisting of expensive and accurate sensors for measuring air quality. In addition to assessing existing methods, we developed simplified methods for measuring ventilation and emission rates in dairy buildings. The three measurement systems were successfully used to measure air quality in uninsulated, semi-insulated, and fully-insulated dairy buildings between the years 2005 and 2007. When carefully calibrated, the affordable sensors in the systems gave reasonably accurate readings. The spatial air quality survey showed high variation in microclimate conditions in the dairy buildings measured. The average indoor air concentration for carbon dioxide was 950 ppm, for ammonia 5 ppm, for methane 48 ppm, for relative humidity 70%, and for inside air velocity 0.2 m/s. The average winter and summer indoor temperatures during the measurement period were -7º C and +24 ºC for the uninsulated, +3 ºC and +20 ºC for the semi-insulated and +10 ºC and +25 ºC for the fully-insulated dairy buildings. The measurement results showed that the uninsulated dairy buildings had lower indoor gas concentrations and emissions compared to fully insulated buildings. Although occasionally exceeded, the ventilation rates and average indoor air quality in the dairy buildings were largely within recommended limits. We assessed the traditional heat balance, moisture balance, carbon dioxide balance and direct airflow methods for estimating ventilation rates. The direct velocity measurement for the estimation of ventilation rate proved to be impractical for naturally ventilated buildings. Two methods were developed for estimating ventilation rates. The first method is applicable in buildings in which the ventilation can be stopped or completely closed. The second method is useful in naturally ventilated buildings with large openings and high ventilation rates where spatial gas concentrations are heterogeneously distributed. The two traditional methods (carbon dioxide and methane balances), and two newly developed methods (theoretical modelling using Fick s law and boundary layer theory, and the recirculation flux-chamber technique) were used to estimate ammonia emissions from the dairy buildings. Using the traditional carbon dioxide balance method, ammonia emissions per cow from the dairy buildings ranged from 7 g day-1 to 35 g day-1, and methane emissions per cow ranged from 96 g day-1 to 348 g day-1. The developed methods proved to be as equally accurate as the traditional methods. Variation between the mean emissions estimated with the traditional and the developed methods was less than 20%. The developed modelling procedure provided sound framework for examining the impact of production systems on ammonia emissions in dairy buildings.

The Nature, Origins, and Consequences of Finnish Shame-Proneness: A Grounded Theory Study

Although shame is a universal human emotion and is one of the most difficult emotions to overcome, its origins and nature as well as its effects on psychosocial functioning are not well understood or defined. While psychological and spiritual counselors are aware of the effects and consequences of shame for an individual s internal well-being and social life, shame is often still considered a taboo topic and is not given adequate attention. This study aims to explain the developmental process and effects of shame and shame-proneness for individuals and provide tools for practitioners to work more effectively with their clients who struggle with shame. This study presents the empirical foundation for a grounded theory that describes and explains the nature, origins, and consequences of shame-proneness. The study focused on Finnish participants childhood, adolescence and adulthood experiences and why they developed shame-proneness, what it meant for them as children and adolescents and what it meant for them as adults. The data collection phase of this study began in 2000. The participants were recruited through advertisements in local and country-wide newspapers and magazines. Altogether 325 people responded to the advertisements by sending an essay concerning their shame and guilt experiences. For the present study, 135 essays were selected and from those who sent an essay 19 were selected for in-depth interviews. In addition to essays and interviews, participants personal notebooks and childhood hospital and medical reports as well as their scores on the Internalized Shame Scale were analyzed. The development of shame-proneness and significant experiences and events during childhood and adolescence (e.g., health, parenting and parents behavior, humiliation, bullying, neglect, maltreatment and abuse) are discussed and the connections of shame-proneness to psychological concepts such as self-esteem, attachment, perfectionism, narcissism, submissiveness, pleasing others, heightened interpersonal subjectivity, and codependence are explained. Relationships and effects of shame-proneness on guilt, spirituality, temperament, coping strategies, defenses, personality formation and psychological health are also explicated. In addition, shame expressions and the development of shame triggers as well as internalized and externalized shame are clarified. These connections and developments are represented by the core category lack of gaining love, validation and protection as the authentic self. The conclusions drawn from the study include a categorization of shame-prone Finnish people according to their childhood and adolescent experiences and the characteristics of their shame-proneness and personality. Implications for psychological and spiritual counseling are also discussed. Key words: shame, internalized shame, external shame, shame development, shame triggers, guilt, self-esteem, attachment, narcissism, perfectionism, submissiveness, codependence, childhood neglect, childhood abuse, childhood maltreatment, emotional abuse, sexual abuse, spiritual abuse, psychological well-being

Perceived Value of Mobile Service Use and its Consequences

The thesis is positioned in the services marketing field. Previous mobile service research has identified perceived value or relative advantage as a stable predictor of use of services. However, a more detailed view of what customers value in mobile services is needed for marketing diverse types of mobile content and attracting committed customers. The direct relationships between multidimensional value and loyalty constructs have received limited attention in the previous literature, although a multidimensional view is needed for differentiating services. This thesis studies how perceived value of mobile service use affects customer commitment, repurchase intentions, word-of-mouth and willingness to pay. The doctoral thesis consists of three journal articles and one working paper. The four papers have different sub-aims and comprise individual empirical studies. Mixed methods including both personal interviews and survey data collected from end-users of different types of mobile content services are used. The conceptual mobile perceived value model that results from the first explorative empirical study supports a six- dimensional value view. The six dimensions are further categorized into two higher order constructs: content-related perceived value (emotional, social, convenience and monetary value) and context-related (epistemic and conditional value) perceived value. Structural equation modeling is used in the other three studies to validate this framework by analyzing the relationships between context- and content-related value, and how the individual perceived value dimensions affect commitment and behavioral outcomes. Analyzing the direct relationships revealed differences in the effect of perceived value dimensions between information and entertainment mobile service user groups, between effects on commitment, repurchase intentions and word-of-mouth intentions, as well as between effects on commitment to the provider and to the mobile channel as such. This thesis contributes to earlier perceived value literature by structuring the value dimensions into two groups. Most importantly, the thesis contributes to the value and loyalty literature by increasing understanding of how the different dimensions of perceived value directly affect commitment and post-purchase intentions. The results have implications for further theory development in the electronic services field using multidimensional latent constructs, and practical implications for enhancing commitment to content provider and for differentiated marketing strategies in the mobile field. The general conclusion of this thesis is that differentiated value-based marketing of mobile services is essential for attracting committed customers who will use the same providers’ content also in the future. Minna Pihlström is associated with the Centre for Relationship Marketing and Service Management (CERS) at Hanken.

What Can A Service Logic Offer Marketing Theory

The goods-dominated marketing model has major shortcomings as a guiding marketing theory. Its marketing mix approach is mainly geared towards buying and does not include consumption as an integral part of marketing theory. Although it is during the process of consuming goods and services that value is generated for customers and the foundation for repeat purchasing and customer relationships are laid, this process is left outside the scope of marketing. The focus in service marketing is not on a product but on interactions in service encounters. Consumption has become an integral part of a holistic marketing model. Other than standardized goods-based value propositions can be better understood when taking a servicebased approach. It is concluded that marketing based on a goods logic is but a special case of marketing based on a service logic and applicable only in certain contexts with standardized products.

“Aivan sama vaikkei ne olis edes pelannut” – Jalkapallo elämyskulutuksen kohteena

Tutkielmassa tarkastellaan jalkapallon seuraamista elämyskuluttamisen näkökulmasta. Elämyskulutuksella tarkoitetaan tässä yhteydessä tapahtumia ja hetkiä, jolloin ihminen kokee tavallisuudesta poikkeavan ja mieleenpainuvan tunnetilan. Elämyksiä tarjoavat palvelut ovat lisänneet jatkuvasti suosiotaan, kun arjessa rationaalisuus ylikorostuu ja sille halutaan vastapainoa. Aihetta taustoitetaan elämysyhteiskunnan, yhteisöllisyyden ja kuluttajaheimojen käsitteiden avulla. Erityishuomion saavat kulttuuritapahtumat elämystuotteina, penkkiurheilu yhteiskunnallisena ilmiönä sekä erilaiset jalkapalloon liittyvät kulutustavat. Tutkielma on luonteeltaan fenomenologis-etnografinen kuvaileva tutkimus. Tutkimusmenetelminä on käytetty osallistuvaa havainnointia ja haastatteluita. Tutkimusperinteen mukaisesti ilmiön ymmärtäminen, kuvaaminen ja kirjoittaminen ovat tärkeässä osassa. Havainnointiaineisto on kerätty kolmessa eri tapahtumassa seuraamalla katsojien käyttäytymistä ja tunnelman syntymiseen vaikuttavia tekijöitä. Haastateltavat on valittu harkinnanvaraisesti jalkapalloa aktiivisesti seuraavista henkilöistä ja menetelmänä on käytetty avoimia teemahaastatteluita. Urheilun vetovoima ajanvietteenä perustuu vahvojen tunteiden herättämiseen, joten penkkiurheilu on elämyskulutusta puhtaimmillaan. Urheilu elämystuotteena on oivallinen, sillä sen lukuisten kulutustapojen lisäksi tapahtumat muodostavat päättymättömän jatkumon. Myös oman aineistoni perusteella osoittautui, että menneiden tapahtumien avulla ankkuroidutaan yhteisöön ja tulevien tapahtumien avulla pidetään innostusta yllä. Pettymysten hetkelläkään koukusta ei haluta irti, sillä jokainen kokemus lisää tunteita omaa urheilulajia ja yhteisöä kohtaan. Urheilutapahtumissa katsojan elämys syntyy subjektiivisen kokemuksen kautta, mutta yhteisö luo elämyksen toteutumisen välttämättömät edellytykset. Jalkapalloyleisöön kuuluvissa henkilöissä yhdistyvät halu kuulua ryhmään ja olla samaan aikaan sen ulkopuolella. Peliä voidaan tarkkailla itsekseen ja keskittyneesti suuren joukon keskellä tai hurrata muiden mukana. Aineistoni perusteella jalkapallofanin innostus pulppuaa kahdesta lähteestä: yhteisöllisyydestä ja kiinnostuksesta lajiin. Yhteisöllisyyden tunne syntyy kuulumisesta globaaliin jalkapalloyhteisöön, oman suosikkijoukkueen kannattajiin ja samaa lajia seuraavien kaverien muodostamaan lähipiiriin. Urheilullinen puoli innostuksesta syntyy kiinnostuksesta jalkapalloa kohtaan lajina, aktiivisesti seuratuista säännöllisistä tapahtumista ja oman joukkueen kannattamisesta. Jalkapallon seuraajiin teoria jatkuvasti muuttuvista uusyhteisöistä pätee melko huonosti, sillä lajille ja seuralle ollaan hyvin uskollisia. Faneille on tärkeää sitoutua pieneen lähiyhteisöön, jonka kanssa heillä on yhteinen historia ja mahdollisuus jakaa kokemuksia keskustelemalla ja muistelemalla.

Do Households Have Rational Expectations on Future Consumption? Evidence from the Finnish Consumer Survey

Ever since its initial introduction some fifty years ago, the rational expectations paradigm has dominated the way economic theory handles uncertainty. The main assertion made by John F. Muth (1961), seen by many as the father of the paradigm, is that expectations of rational economic agents should essentially be equal to the predictions of relevant economic theory, since rational agents should use information available to them in an optimal way. This assumption often has important consequences on the results and interpretations of the models where it is applied. Although the rational expectations assumption can be applied to virtually any economic theory, the focus in this thesis is on macroeconomic theories of consumption, especially the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis proposed by Robert E. Hall in 1978. The much-debated theory suggests that, assuming that agents have rational expectations on their future income, consumption decisions should follow a random walk, and the best forecast of future consumption level is the current consumption level. Then, changes in consumption are unforecastable. This thesis constructs an empirical test for the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis using Finnish Consumer Survey data as well as various Finnish macroeconomic data. The data sample covers the years 1995–2010. Consumer survey data may be interpreted to directly represent household expectations, which makes it an interesting tool for this particular test. The variable to be predicted is the growth of total household consumption expenditure. The main empirical result is that the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), a balance figure computed from the most important consumer survey responses, does have statistically significant predictive power over the change in total consumption expenditure. The history of consumption expenditure growth itself, however, fails to predict its own future values. This indicates that the CCI contains some information that the history of consumption decisions does not, and that the consumption decisions are not optimal in the theoretical context. However, when conditioned on various macroeconomic variables, the CCI loses its predictive ability. This finding suggests that the index is merely a (partial) summary of macroeconomic information, and does not contain any significant private information on consumption intentions of households not directly deductible from the objective economic variables. In conclusion, the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis is strongly rejected by the empirical results in this thesis. This result is in accordance with most earlier studies conducted on the topic.