On probability-based inference under data missing by design

Whether a statistician wants to complement a probability model for observed data with a prior distribution and carry out fully probabilistic inference, or base the inference only on the likelihood function, may be a fundamental question in theory, but in practice it may well be of less importance if the likelihood contains much more information than the prior. Maximum likelihood inference can be justified as a Gaussian approximation at the posterior mode, using flat priors. However, in situations where parametric assumptions in standard statistical models would be too rigid, more flexible model formulation, combined with fully probabilistic inference, can be achieved using hierarchical Bayesian parametrization. This work includes five articles, all of which apply probability modeling under various problems involving incomplete observation. Three of the papers apply maximum likelihood estimation and two of them hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Because maximum likelihood may be presented as a special case of Bayesian inference, but not the other way round, in the introductory part of this work we present a framework for probability-based inference using only Bayesian concepts. We also re-derive some results presented in the original articles using the toolbox equipped herein, to show that they are also justifiable under this more general framework. Here the assumption of exchangeability and de Finetti's representation theorem are applied repeatedly for justifying the use of standard parametric probability models with conditionally independent likelihood contributions. It is argued that this same reasoning can be applied also under sampling from a finite population. The main emphasis here is in probability-based inference under incomplete observation due to study design. This is illustrated using a generic two-phase cohort sampling design as an example. The alternative approaches presented for analysis of such a design are full likelihood, which utilizes all observed information, and conditional likelihood, which is restricted to a completely observed set, conditioning on the rule that generated that set. Conditional likelihood inference is also applied for a joint analysis of prevalence and incidence data, a situation subject to both left censoring and left truncation. Other topics covered are model uncertainty and causal inference using posterior predictive distributions. We formulate a non-parametric monotonic regression model for one or more covariates and a Bayesian estimation procedure, and apply the model in the context of optimal sequential treatment regimes, demonstrating that inference based on posterior predictive distributions is feasible also in this case.

Missing-In-Metastasis (MIM) regulates cell morphology by promoting plasma membrane and actin cytoskeleton dynamics

The cells of multicellular organisms have differentiated to carry out specific functions that are often accompanied by distinct cell morphology. The actin cytoskeleton is one of the key regulators of cell shape subsequently controlling multiple cellular events including cell migration, cell division, endo- and exocytosis. A large set of actin regulating proteins has evolved to achieve and tightly coordinate this wide range of functions. Some actin regulator proteins have so-called house keeping roles and are essential for all eukaryotic cells, but some have evolved to meet the requirements of more specialized cell-types found in higher organisms enabling complex functions of differentiated organs, such as liver, kidney and brain. Often processes mediated by the actin cytoskeleton, like formation of cellular protrusions during cell migration, are intimately linked to plasma membrane remodeling. Thus, a close cooperation between these two cellular compartments is necessary, yet not much is known about the underlying molecular mechanisms. This study focused on a vertebrate-specific protein called missing-in-metastasis (MIM), which was originally characterized as a metastasis suppressor of bladder cancer. We demonstrated that MIM regulates the dynamics of actin cytoskeleton via its WH2 domain, and is expressed in a cell-type specific manner. Interestingly, further examination showed that the IM-domain of MIM displays a novel membrane tubulation activity, which induces formation of filopodia in cells. Following studies demonstrated that this membrane deformation activity is crucial for cell protrusions driven by MIM. In mammals, there are five members of IM-domain protein family. Functions and expression patterns of these family members have remained poorly characterized. To understand the physiological functions of MIM, we generated MIM knockout mice. MIM-deficient mice display no apparent developmental defects, but instead suffer from progressive renal disease and increased susceptibility to tumors. This indicates that MIM plays a role in the maintenance of specific physiological functions associated with distinct cell morphologies. Taken together, these studies implicate MIM both in the regulation of the actin cytoskeleton and the plasma membrane. Our results thus suggest that members of MIM/IRSp53 protein family coordinate the actin cytoskeleton:plasma membrane interface to control cell and tissue morphogenesis in multicellular organisms.

Search for single top quark production in pp̅ collisions at √s=1.96 TeV in the missing transverse energy plus jets topology

We report a search for single top quark production with the CDF II detector using 2.1 fb-1 of integrated luminosity of pbar p collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV. The data selected consist of events characterized by large energy imbalance in the transverse plane and hadronic jets, and no identified electrons and muons, so the sample is enriched in W -> tau nu decays. In order to suppress backgrounds, additional kinematic and topological requirements are imposed through a neural network, and at least one of the jets must be identified as a b-quark jet. We measure an excess of signal-like events in agreement with the standard model prediction, but inconsistent with a model without single top quark production by 2.1 standard deviations (sigma), with a median expected sensitivity of 1.4 sigma. Assuming a top quark mass of 175 GeV/c2 and ascribing the excess to single top quark production, the cross section is measured to be 4.9+2.5-2.2(stat+syst)pb, consistent with measurements performed in independent datasets and with the standard model prediction.

Search for Supersymmetry with Gauge-Mediated Breaking in Diphoton Events with Missing Transverse Energy at CDF II

We present the results of a search for supersymmetry with gauge-mediated breaking and $\NONE\to\gamma\Gravitino$ in the $\gamma\gamma$+missing transverse energy final state. In 2.6$\pm$0.2 \invfb of $p{\bar p}$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}$$=$1.96 TeV recorded by the CDF II detector we observe no candidate events, consistent with a standard model background expectation of 1.4$\pm$0.4 events. We set limits on the cross section at the 95% C.L. and place the world's best limit of 149\gevc on the \none mass at $\tau_{\tilde{\chi}_1^0}$$

Search for WW and WZ Resonances Decaying to Electron, Missing ET, and Two Jets in pp̅ Collisions at √s=1.96 TeV.

Using data from 2.9  fb-1 of integrated luminosity collected with the CDF II detector at the Tevatron, we search for resonances decaying into a pair of on-shell gauge bosons, WW or WZ, where one W decays into an electron and a neutrino, and the other boson decays into two jets. We observed no statistically significant excess above the expected standard model background, and we set cross section limits at 95% confidence level on G* (Randall-Sundrum graviton), Z′, and W′ bosons. By comparing these limits to theoretical cross sections, mass exclusion regions for the three particles are derived. The mass exclusion regions for Z′ and W′ are further evaluated as a function of their gauge coupling strength.

Search for WW and WZ Resonances Decaying to Electron, Missing ET, and Two Jets in pp̅ Collisions at √s=1.96 TeV.

Using data from 2.9/fb of integrated luminosity collected with the CDF II detector at the Tevatron, we search for resonances decaying into a pair of on-shell gauge bosons, WW or WZ, where one W decays into an electron and a neutrino, and the other boson decays into two jets. We observed no statistically significant excess above the expected standard model background, and we set cross section limits at 95% confidence level on G*(Randall-Sundrum graviton), Z', and W' bosons. By comparing these limits to theoretical cross sections, mass exclusion regions for the three particles are derived. The mass exclusion regions for Z' and W' are further evaluated as a function of their gauge coupling strength.

Search for the Higgs Boson Using Neural Networks in Events with Missing Energy and b-Quark Jets in pp̅ Collisions at √s=1.96 TeV

We report on a search for the standard model Higgs boson produced in association with a $W$ or $Z$ boson in $p\bar{p}$ collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 1.96$ TeV recorded by the CDF II experiment at the Tevatron in a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.1 fb$^{-1}$. We consider events which have no identified charged leptons, an imbalance in transverse momentum, and two or three jets where at least one jet is consistent with originating from the decay of a $b$ hadron. We find good agreement between data and predictions. We place 95% confidence level upper limits on the production cross section for several Higgs boson masses ranging from 110$\gevm$ to 150$\gevm$. For a mass of 115$\gevm$ the observed (expected) limit is 6.9 (5.6) times the standard model prediction.

Search for Anomalous Production of Events with a Photon, Jet, b-quark Jet, and Missing Transverse Energy

We present a signature-based search for anomalous production of events containing a photon, two jets, of which at least one is identified as originating from a b quark, and missing transverse energy. The search uses data corresponding to 2.0/fb of integrated luminosity from p-pbar collisions at a center-of-mass energy of sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV, collected with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. From 6,697,466 events with a photon candidate with transverse energy ET> 25 GeV, we find 617 events with missing transverse energy > 25 GeV and two or more jets with ET> 15 GeV, at least one identified as originating from a b quark, versus an expectation of 607+- 113 events. Increasing the requirement on missing transverse energy to 50 GeV, we find 28 events versus an expectation of 30+-11 events. We find no indications of non-standard-model phenomena.

Search for New Physics with a Dijet Plus Missing ET Signature in pp̅ Collisions at √s=1.96 TeV

We present results of a signature-based search for new physics using a dijet plus missing transverse energy data sample collected in 2 fb-1 of p-pbar collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. We observe no significant event excess with respect to the standard model prediction and extract a 95% C.L. upper limit on the cross section times acceptance for a potential contribution from a non-standard model process. Based on this limit the mass of a first or second generation scalar leptoquark is constrained to be above 187 GeV/c^2.

Changes in Beer Labels and their Meaning : A Holistic Approach to the Semiosic Process

The purpose of this study is to find a framework for a holistic approach to, and form a conceptual toolbox for, investigating changes in signs and in their interpretation. Charles S. Peirce s theory of signs in a communicative perspective is taken as a basis for the framework. The concern directing the study is the problem of a missing framework in analysing signs of visual artefacts from a holistic perspective as well as that of the missing conceptual tools. To discover the possibility of such a holistic approach to semiosic processes and to form a conceptual toolbox the following issues are discussed: i) how the many Objects with two aspects involved in Peirce s definition of sign-action, promote multiple semiosis arising from the same sign by the same Interpretant depending on the domination of the Objects; ii) in which way can the relation of the individual and society or group be made more apparent in the construction of the self since this construction is intertwined with the process of meaning-creation and interpretation; iii) how to account for the fundamental role of emotions in semiosis, and the relation of emotions with the often neglected topic of embodiment; iv) how to take into account the dynamic, mediating and processual nature of sign-action in analysing and understanding the changes in signs and in the interpretation of signs. An interdisciplinary approach is chosen for this dissertation. Concepts that developed within social psychology, developmental psychology, neurosciences and semiotics, are discussed. The common aspect of the approaches is that they in one way or another concentrate on mediation provided by signs in explaining human activity and cognition. The holistic approach and conceptual toolbox found are employed in a case study. This consists of an analysis of beer brands including a comparison of brands from two different cultures. It becomes clear that different theories and approaches have mutual affinities and do complement each other. In addition, the affinities in different disciplines somewhat provide credence to the various views. From the combined approach described, it becomes apparent that by the semiosic process, the emerging semiotic self intertwined with the Umwelt, including emotions, can be described. Seeing the interpretation and meaning-making through semiosis allows for the analysis of groups, taking into account the embodied and emotional component. It is concluded that emotions have a crucial role in all human activity, including so-called reflective thinking, and that emotions and embodiment should be consciously taken into account in analysing signs, the interpretation, and in changes of signs and interpretations from both the social and individual level. The analysis of the beer labels expresses well the intertwined nature of the relationship between signs, individual consumers and society. Many direct influences from society on the label design are found, and also some indirect attitude changes that become apparent from magazines, company reports, etc. In addition, the analysis brings up the issues of the unifying tendency of the visual artefacts of different cultures, but also demonstrates that the visual artefacts are able to hold the local signs and meanings, and sometimes are able to represent the local meanings although the signs have changed in the unifying process.

Environmental change and human history in the Jabal Harun area, Jordan

The research is related to the Finnish Jabal Harun Project (FJHP), which is part of the research unit directed by Professor Jaakko Frösén. The project consists of two interrelated parts: the excavation of a Byzantine monastery/pilgrimage centre on Jabal Harun, and a multiperiod archaeological survey of the surrounding landscape. It is generally held that the Near Eastern landscape has been modified by millennia of human habitation and activity. Past climatic changes and human activities could be expected to have significantly changed also the landscape of the Jabal Harun area. Therefore it was considered that a study of erosion in the Jabal Harun area could shed light on the environmental and human history of the area. It was hoped that it would be possible to connect the results of the sedimentological studies either to wider climatic changes in the Near East, or to archaeologically observable periods of human activity and land use. As evidence of some archaeological periods is completely missing from the Jabal Harun area, it was also of interest whether catastrophic erosion or unfavourable environmental change, caused either by natural forces or by human agency, could explain the gaps in the archaeological record. Changes in climate and/or land-use were expected to be reflected in the sedimentary record. The field research, carried out as part of the FJHP survey fieldwork, included the mapping of wadi terraces and cleaning of sediment profiles which were recorded and sampled for laboratory analyses of facies and lithology. To obtain a chronology for the sedimentation and erosion phases also OSL (optically stimulated luminescence) dating samples were collected. The results were compared to the record of the Near Eastern palaeoclimate, and to data from geoarchaeological studies in central and southern Jordan. The picture of the environmental development was then compared to the human history in the area, based on archaeological evidence from the FJHP survey and the published archaeological research in the Petra region, and the question of the relationship between human activity and environmental change was critically discussed. Using the palaeoclimatic data and the results from geoarchaeological studies it was possible to outline the environmental development in the Jabal Harun area from the Pleistocene to the present.It is appears that there was a phase of accumulation of sediment before the Middle Palaeolithic period, possibly related to tectonic movement. This phase was later followed by erosion, tentatively suggested to have taken place during the Upper Palaeolithic. A period of wadi aggradation probably occurred during the Late Glacial and continued until the end of the Pleistocene, followed by significant channel degradation, attributed to increased rainfall during the Early Holocene. It seems that during the later Holocene channel incision has been dominant in the Jabal Harûn area although there have been also small-scale channel aggradation phases, two of which were OSL-dated to around 4000-3000 BP and 2400-2000 BP. As there is no evidence of tectonic movements in the Jabal Harun area after the early Pleistocene, it is suggested that climate change and human activity have been the major causes of environmental change in the area. At a brief glance it seems that many of the changes in the settlement and land use in the Jabal Harun area can be explained by climatic and environmental conditions. However, the responses of human societies to environmental change are dependent on many factors. Therefore an evaluation of the significance of environmental, cultural, socio-economic and political factors is needed to decide whether certain phenomena are environmentally induced. Comparison with the wider Petra region is also needed to judge whether the phenomena are characteristic of the Jabal Harun area only, or can they be connected to social, political and economic development over a wider area.

Visual completion in an illusory figure

The visual systems of humans and animals represent physical reality in a modified way, depending on the specific demands that the species in question has for survival. The ability to perceive visual illusions is found in independently evolved visual systems, from honeybees to humans. In humans, the ability emerges early, at the age of four months. Thus the perception of illusion is likely to reflect visual processes of fundamental importance for object perception in natural vision. The experiments reported in this thesis employed various modifications of the Kanizsa triangle, a drawn configuration composed of three black disks with missing sectors on a white background. The sectors appear to form the tips of a triangle. The visual system completes the physically empty area between the disks, generally called inducers, with giving the perception of an illusory triangle. The illusory triangle consists of an illusory surface bounded by illusory contours; the triangle appears brighter than and to lie above the background. If the sectors are coloured, the colour fills the illusory area, a phenomenon known as neon colour spreading . We investigated spatial limitations on the perception of Kanizsa-type illusions and how other stimuli and viewing parameters affected these limitations. We also studied complex configurations thick, bent, mobile and chromatic inducers - to determine whether illusions combining several attributes can be perceived. The results suggest that the visual system is highly effective in completing a percept. The perception of an illusory figure is spatially scale invariant when perceived at threshold. The processing time and the number of fixations modify the percept, making the perception of the illusion more probable in various viewing conditions. Furthermore, the fact that the illusion can be perceived when only one inducer is physically present at any given moment indicates the potential of single inducers. Apparently, modelling illusory figure perception will require a combination of low-level, local processes and higher-level integrative processes. Our studies with stimuli combining several attributes relevant to object perception demonstrate that the perception of an illusory figure is flexible and is maintained also when it contains colour and volume and when shown in movement. All in all, the results confirm the assumed importance of the visual processes related with the perception of illusory figures in everyday viewing. This is indicated by the variety of inducer modifications that can be made without destroying the percept. Furthermore, the illusion can acquire additional attributes from such modifications. Due to individual differences in the perception of illusory figures, universal values for absolute performance are not always meaningful, but stable trends and general relations do exist.

The Freudian unconscious in the context of the cognitive orientation

For decades psychoanalysis was the discipline studying the unconscious, and other branches of study lacked competence to take a stand on the issues concerning the unconscious. From 1980s onwards intense study of the unconscious has been taken place in the scope of cognitive orientation. Thus, nowadays it is talked about both pyschoanalytic and cognitive unconscious. The aim of this thesis is to integrate psychoanalytic and cognitive views. When the "Freudian" conception of the unconscious is considered, there are four entangled issues: 1) what is the unconscious like, 2) how does the unconsciuos give rise to psychic disorders 3) why and how certain contents are missing from consciousness (repression of contents), 4) the emergence of those contents (becoming conscious of the repressed). The conventional psychoanalytic answer to the first question - and "the cornerstone of psychoanalysis" - is "the unconscious is mental". The issues 2)-4) depend radically on the answer given to the 1): "psychoanalytic" conceptualizations on them rest on the "cornerstone". That ground was challended in study I: it was argued that it has never been clear what does it mean that the unconscious is mental. Thus, it was stated that in the current state of art psychoanalysis should drop out the ephitet "mental" before the term unconscious. That claim creates a pressure to reappraise the convential "psychoanalytic" answers to the other questions, and that reappraisal was the aim of studies II and III. In study II the question 2) is approached in terms of implicit knowledge. Study III focuses on mechanisms, which determine which contents appear in the scope of consciousness, and also cause missing of contents from there (the questions 3) and 4)). In the core of study III there are distinctions concerning the processess occuring in the levels of the brain, consciousness, self-consciousness, and narrative self-consciousness. Studies I-III set "psychoanalytic" topics in the frames of cognitive view. The picture emerging from those studies is not especially useful for a clinican (psychotherapist). Studies IV and V focused that issue. Study IV is a rather serious critique toward neuropsychoanalysis. In it it was claimed that repressive functions of conscious states are in the core of clinical psychoanalysis, and functions in general cannot be reduced to neurophysiological terminology. Thus, the limits of neuropsychoanalysis are more strict than it has been realized: crucial clinical issues remain outside its scope. In study V it was focused on the confusing state of things that although unconscious fantasies do not exist, the idea on them has been an important conceptual tool for clinicans. When put in a larger context, the aim of study V is similar to that of study IV: to determine the relation between psychotherapists' and neuroscientists' terminologies. Studies III, IV and V apply the philosopher Daniel Dennett's model on different levels of explanation.

Impulsivity, health-related behaviour and disease : A prospective study

In clinical settings impulsivity refers to a symptom of psychiatric disorder, but nonclinically oriented research treats impulsivity as a personality and temperament dimension. This prospective study examined whether impulsivity predicts adverse health-related behaviour and increased risk of health problems in a large, nonclinical sample of 5433 subjects working in 12 Finnish hospitals. The data were collected using two questionnaire surveys at a 2-year interval. After controlling for alcohol use at baseline, higher impulsivity predicted increased alcohol consumption at follow-up in both genders (p < .01) and was associated with increased likelihood of becoming a heavy drinker or taking up smoking (p < .05). Impulsivity also predicted an increased number of cigarettes smoked per day in the follow-up among women (p < .001), but not among men, although adjustment for the number of cigarettes smoked at baseline attenuated these associations (p = .08 for women). In men, higher impulsivity was associated with shorter sleep duration and waking up several times per night independent of baseline characteristics (p < .01), whereas in women, higher impulsivity predicted difficulty in falling asleep and waking up feeling tired after the usual amount of sleep (p < .05). In women, these associations became nonsignificant after adjustment for pre-existing somatic and psychiatric diseases. Finally, higher impulsivity was associated with an increased 2-year incidence of physician-diagnosed peptic ulcer disease (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 2.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.21 - 4.82) and onset of depression (OR = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.28 - 2.97) after adjustment for a variety of baseline covariates. In conclusion, this study shows that in a nonclinical population, impulsivity appears to be a risk factor for various unhealthy behaviour and health problems.