Democracy, Participation, and Deliberation in China : The discussion about democratic centralism in the official Chinese press, 1978-1981

This study examines the Chinese press discussion about democratic centralism in 1978-1981 in newspapers, political journals and academic journals distributed nationwide. It is thus a study of intellectual trends during the Hua Guofeng period and of methods, strategies, and techniques of public political discussion of the time. In addition, this study presents democratic centralism as a comprehensive theory of democracy and evaluates this theory. It compares the Chinese theory of democratic centralism with Western traditions of democracy, not only with the standard liberal theory but also with traditions of participatory and deliberative democracy, in order to evaluate whether the Chinese theory of democratic centralism forms a legitimate theory of democracy. It shows that the Chinese theory comes close to participatory types of democracy and shares a conception of democracy as communication with the theory of deliberative democracy. Therefore, the Chinese experience provides some empirical evidence of the practicability of these traditions of democracy. Simultaneously, this study uses experiences of participatory democracies outside of China to explain some earlier findings about the Chinese practices. This dissertation also compares Chinese theory with some common Western theories and models of Chinese society as well as with Western understandings of Chinese political processes. It thus aims at opening more dialogue between Chinese and Western political theories and understandings about Chinese polity. This study belongs to scholarly traditions of the history of ideas, political philosophy, comparative politics, and China studies. The main finding of this study is that the Chinese theory of democratic centralism is essentially a theory about democracy, but whether its scrupulous practicing alone would be sufficient for making a country a democracy depends on which established definition of democracy one applies and on what kind of democratic deficits are seen as being acceptable within a truly democratic system. Nevertheless, since the Chinese theory of democratic centralism fits well with some established definitions of democracy and since democratic deficits are a reality in all actual democracies, the Chinese themselves are talking about democracy in terms acceptable to Western political philosophy as well.

Do Households Have Rational Expectations on Future Consumption? Evidence from the Finnish Consumer Survey

Ever since its initial introduction some fifty years ago, the rational expectations paradigm has dominated the way economic theory handles uncertainty. The main assertion made by John F. Muth (1961), seen by many as the father of the paradigm, is that expectations of rational economic agents should essentially be equal to the predictions of relevant economic theory, since rational agents should use information available to them in an optimal way. This assumption often has important consequences on the results and interpretations of the models where it is applied. Although the rational expectations assumption can be applied to virtually any economic theory, the focus in this thesis is on macroeconomic theories of consumption, especially the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis proposed by Robert E. Hall in 1978. The much-debated theory suggests that, assuming that agents have rational expectations on their future income, consumption decisions should follow a random walk, and the best forecast of future consumption level is the current consumption level. Then, changes in consumption are unforecastable. This thesis constructs an empirical test for the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis using Finnish Consumer Survey data as well as various Finnish macroeconomic data. The data sample covers the years 1995–2010. Consumer survey data may be interpreted to directly represent household expectations, which makes it an interesting tool for this particular test. The variable to be predicted is the growth of total household consumption expenditure. The main empirical result is that the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), a balance figure computed from the most important consumer survey responses, does have statistically significant predictive power over the change in total consumption expenditure. The history of consumption expenditure growth itself, however, fails to predict its own future values. This indicates that the CCI contains some information that the history of consumption decisions does not, and that the consumption decisions are not optimal in the theoretical context. However, when conditioned on various macroeconomic variables, the CCI loses its predictive ability. This finding suggests that the index is merely a (partial) summary of macroeconomic information, and does not contain any significant private information on consumption intentions of households not directly deductible from the objective economic variables. In conclusion, the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis is strongly rejected by the empirical results in this thesis. This result is in accordance with most earlier studies conducted on the topic.

Silva Fennica Vol. 12, 1978.

Julkaistu Silva Fennica Vol. 12(4) -numeron liitteenä.