Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.

Silent Communication - A Challenge to Established Marketing Communication Practice

Purpose The paper examines the concept of silent communication and its implications in marketing communication. It defines silent communication and proposes an analytic framework enabling an expanded view of marketing communication. Design/methodology/approach By explicitly adopting a customer-oriented perspective, combined with insights from service marketing and relationship communication, the paper extends current models of marketing communication. Findings The paper identifies different types of silent communication and presents new perspectives on marketing communication. The authors outline a framework for understanding how the company can/cannot control different forms of marketing communication and discuss the implications of this. Research implications/limitations The paper concentrates on a conceptual analysis, offering a number of empirical illustrations. The conceptual development creates new research issues that should lead to a deeper understanding of customers’ meaning creation, actions and reactions. Practical implications Silent communication constitutes a managerial challenge as it is often invisible to the management. The paper points to the need to develop methods to reveal the effects of silent communication as well as create guidelines for managerially handling silent communication. Originality/value The customer-based perspective and the focus on silent communication provide a completely new approach to analysing and understanding marketing communication. The paper contributes to service marketing and marketing communication research by introducing conceptualisations of silent communication that have an interest for both academic research and practitioners.

Towards a Dynamic Communication Model: A Useful Tool in Relationship Communication

In order to bring insight into the emerging concept of relationship communication, concepts from two research traditions will be combined in this paper. Based on those concepts a new model, the dynamic relationship communication model, will be presented. Instead of a company perspective focusing on the integration of outgoing messages such as advertising, public relations and sales activities, it is suggested that the focus should be on factors integrated by the receiver. Such factors can be historical, future, external and internal factors. Thus, the model put a strong focus on the receiver in the communication process. The dynamic communication model is illustrated empirically using it as a tool on 78 short stories about communication. The empirical findings show that relationship communication occurs in some cases; in some cases it does not occur. The model is a useful tool in displaying relationship communication and how it differs from other communication. The importance of the time dimension, historical and future factors, in relationship communications is discussed. The possibility of reducing communications costs by the notion of relationship communication is discussed in managerial implications.

Personality and social psychological studies on computer-mediated communication in school settings

The present study examined how personality and social psychological factors affect third and fourth graders' computer-mediated communication. Personality was analysed in terms of the following strategies: optimism, pessimism and defensive pessimism. Students worked either individually or in dyads which were paired homogeneously or heterogeneously according to the strategies. Moreover, the present study compared horizontal and vertical interaction. The study also examined the role that popularity plays, and students were divided into groups based on their popularity level. The results show that an optimistic strategy is useful. Optimism was found to be related to the active production and processing of ideas. Although previous research has identified drawbacks to pessimism in achievement settings, this study shows that the pessimistic strategy is not as debilitating a strategy as is usually assumed. Pessimistic students were able to process their ideas. However, defensive pessimists were somewhat cautious in introducing or changing ideas. Heterogeneous dyads were not beneficial configurations with respect to producing, introducing, or changing ideas. Moreover, many differences were found to exist between the horizontal and vertical interaction; specifically, the students expressed more opinions and feelings when teachers took no part in the discussions. Strong emotions were observed especially in the horizontal interaction. Further, group working skills were found to be more important for boys than for girls, while rejected students were not at a disadvantage compared to popular ones. Schools can encourage emotional and social learning. The present study shows that students can use computers to express their feelings. In addition, students who are unpopular in non-computer contexts or students who use pessimism can benefit from computers. Participation in computer discussions can give unpopular children a chance to develop confidence when relating to peers.

Ion-regulatory proreins in neuronal development and communication

Brain function is critically dependent on the ionic homeostasis in both the extra- and intracellular compartment. The regulation of brain extracellular ionic composition mainly relies on active transport at blood brain and at blood cerebrospinal fluid interfaces whereas intracellular ion regulation is based on plasmalemmal transporters of neurons and glia. In addition, the latter mechanisms can generate physiologically as well as pathophysiologically significant extracellular ion transients. In this work I have studied molecular mechanisms and development of ion regulation and how these factors alter neuronal excitability and affect synaptic and non-synaptic transmission with a particular emphasis on intracellular pH and chloride (Cl-) regulation. Why is the regulation of acid-base equivalents (H+ and HCO3-) and Cl- of such interest and importance? First of all, GABAA-receptors are permeable to both HCO3- and Cl-. In the adult mammalian central nervous system (CNS) fast postsynaptic inhibition relies on GABAA-receptor mediated transmission. Today, excitatory effects of GABAA-receptors, both in mature neurons and during the early development, have been recognized and the significance of the dual actions of GABA on neuronal communication has become an interesting field of research. The transmembrane gradients of Cl- and HCO3- determine the reversal potential of GABAA-receptor mediated postsynaptic potentials and hence, the function of pH and Cl- regulatory proteins have profound consequences on GABAergic signaling and neuronal excitability. Secondly, perturbations in pH can cause a variety of changes in cellular function, many of them resulting from the interaction of protons with ionizable side chains of proteins. pH-mediated alterations of protein conformation in e.g. ion channels, transporters, and enzymes can powerfully modulate neurotransmission. In the context of pH homeostasis, the enzyme carbonic anhydrase (CA) needs to be taken into account in parallel with ion transporters: for CO2/HCO3- buffering to act in a fast manner, CO2 (de)hydration must be catalyzed by this enzyme. The acid-base equivalents that serve as substrates in the CO2 dehydration-hydration reaction are also engaged in many carrier and channel mediated ion movements. In such processes, CA activity is in key position to modulate transmembrane solute fluxes and their consequences. The bicarbonate transporters (BTs; SLC4) and the electroneutral cation-chloride cotransporters (CCCs; SLC12) belong the to large gene family of solute carriers (SLCs). In my work I have studied the physiological roles of the K+-Cl- cotransporter KCC2 (Slc12a5) and the Na+-driven Cl--HCO3- exchanger NCBE (Slc4a10) and the roles of these two ion transporters in the modualtion of neuronal communication and excitability in the rodent hippocampus. I have also examined the cellular localization and molecular basis of intracellular CA that has been shown to be essential for the generation of prolonged GABAergic excitation in the mature hippocampus. The results in my Thesis provide direct evidence for the view that the postnatal up-regulation of KCC2 accounts for the developmental shift from depolarizing to hyperpolarizing postsynaptic EGABA-A responses in rat hippocampal pyramidal neurons. The results also indicate that after KCC2 expression the developmental onset of excitatory GABAergic transmission upon intense GABAA-receptor stimulation depend on the expression of intrapyramidal CA, identified as the CA isoform VII. Studies on mice with targeted Slc4a10 gene disruption revealed an important role for NCBE in neuronal pH regulation and in pH-dependent modulation of neuronal excitability. Furthermore, this ion transporter is involved in the basolateral Na+ and HCO3- uptake in choroid plexus epithelial cells, and is thus likely to contribute to cerebrospinal fluid production.

Uuden median murros Alma Mediassa, Sanoma Oy:ssä ja Yleisradiossa 1994-2004

This is a qualitative and multimethodological comparative study, which consists of two main parts: examining the development of new media and analysing and comparing the new media strategies of the three companies studied (Alma Media, Sanoma and the Finnish Broadcasting Company Yleisradio). The study includes the first large-scale review in Finnish of the development of new media, paying attention to the birth of the Internet as well as to mobile media, web TV and any other element of new media. It also concentrates on the function of electronic distribution channels before the age of the Internet, e.g. cable text and videotext. Answers about how the three traditional Finnish media houses began spreading their content to the Internet and wireless applications in 1994–2004 are also given. In researching the new media strategies the study pays special attention to the attitudes that the three media companies adopted towards the Internet and other forms of new media in their strategies during the years in question. By analysing and comparing, e.g., the companies’ strategies and their investments, the study ascertains whether the companies had a joint functional model in adopting new media or acted totally on their own without taking too much notice of the media field overall. The study makes extensive use of previously published material. The researcher has also interviewed almost twenty people who were involved in getting the companies’ new media functions under way. The methods for the interviews were dialogue and snowball sampling. The researcher has created a classification in which he divides the business strategies into four different categories: active strategy, careful strategy, permissive strategy, and passive strategy. In comparing and analysing the companies the researcher has used the classification devised by Allan Afuah & Christopher L. Tucci. The seven element classification consists of dominant managerial logic, competency trap, fear of cannibalisation and loss of revenue, channel conflict, political power, co-opetitor power and emotional attachment. In analysing the company strategies the researcher has also noted the classifications of convergence made by Everette E. Dennis and Graham Murdock as well as the aspects formulated by Sylvia Chan-Olmsted and Louisa Ha concerning the success of the companies in adopting the Internet into their functions. Based on all these classifications and by further developing them the researcher analyses and compares the success of the new media strategies of the three Finnish companies. The outcome of the study is a conclusion as to what kind of strategies the companies have carried out their new media functions and how they have succeeded in it.

Kantoaalto koulutuksesta työyhteisön viestintäosaamiseen : lyhytkestoisen viestintäkoulutuksen vaikuttavuuden avaintekijät

The purpose of this research is to examine whether short-term communication training can have an impact on the improvement of communication capacity of working communities, and what are prerequisites for the creation of such capacity. Subjects of this research were short-term communication trainings aimed at the managerial and expert levels of enterprises and communities. The research endeavors to find out how communication trainings with an impact should be devised and implemented, and what this requires from the client and provider of the training service. The research data is mostly comprised of quantitative feed-back collected at the end of a training day, as well as delayed interviews. The evaluations have been based on a stakeholder approach, and those concerned were participants to the trainings, clients having commissioned the trainings and communication trainers. The principal method of the qualitative analysis is that of a data-driven content analysis. Two research instruments have been constructed for the analysis and for the presentation of the results: an evaluation circle for the purposes of a holistic evaluation and a development matrix for the structuring of an effective training. The core concept of the matrix is a carrier wave effect, which is needed to carry the abstractions from the training into concrete functions in the everyday life. The relevance of the results has been tested in a pilot organization. The immediate assessment and delayed evaluations gave a very differing picture of the trainings. The immediate feedback was of nearly commendable level, but the effects carried forward into the everyday situations of the working community were small and that the learning rarely was applied into practice. A training session that receives good feedback does not automatically result in the development of individual competence, let alone that of the community. The results show that even short-term communication training can promote communication competence that eventually changes the working culture on an organizational level, provided that the training is designed into a process and that the connections into the participants’ work are ensured. It is essential that all eight elements of the carrier wave effect are taken into account. The entire purchaser-provider -process must function while not omitting the contribution of the participants themselves. The research illustrates the so called bow tie -model of an effective communication training based on the carrier wave effect. Testing the results in pilot trainings showed that a rather small change in the training approach may have a signi¬ficant effect on the outcome of the training as well as those effects that are carried on into the working community. The evaluation circle proved to be a useful tool, which can be used while planning, executing and evaluating training in practice. The development matrix works as a tool for those producing the training service, those using the service as well as those deciding on the purchase of the service in planning and evaluating training that sustainably improves communication capacity. Thus the evaluation circle also works to support and ensure the long-term effects of short-term trainings. In addition to communication trainings, the tools developed for this research are useable for many such needs, where an organization is looking to improve its operations and profitability through training.

Relationships in food chains: an empirical examination of trust, commitment and communication

This report derives from the EU funded research project “Key Factors Influencing Economic Relationships and Communication in European Food Chains” (FOODCOMM). The research consortium consisted of the following organisations: University of Bonn (UNI BONN), Department of Agricultural and Food Marketing Research (overall project co-ordination); Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO), Department for Agricultural Markets, Marketing and World Agricultural Trade, Halle (Saale), Germany; University of Helsinki, Ruralia Institute Seinäjoki Unit, Finland; Scottish Agricultural College (SAC), Food Marketing Research Team - Land Economy Research Group, Edinburgh and Aberdeen; Ashtown Food Research Centre (AFRC), Teagasc, Food Marketing Unit, Dublin; Institute of Agricultural & Food Economics (IAFE), Department of Market Analysis and Food Processing, Warsaw and Government of Aragon, Center for Agro-Food Research and Technology (CITA), Zaragoza, Spain. The aim of the FOODCOMM project was to examine the role (prevalence, necessity and significance) of economic relationships in selected European food chains and to identify the economic, social and cultural factors which influence co-ordination within these chains. The research project considered meat and cereal commodities in six different European countries (Finland, Germany, Ireland, Poland, Spain, UK/Scotland) and was commissioned against a background of changing European food markets. The research project as a whole consisted of seven different work packages. This report presents the results of qualitative research conducted for work package 5 (WP5) in the pig meat and rye bread chains in Finland. Ruralia Institute would like to give special thanks for all the individuals and companies that kindly gave up their time to take part in the study. Their input has been invaluable to the project. The contribution of research assistant Sanna-Helena Rantala was significant in the data gathering. FOODCOMM project was coordinated by the University of Bonn, Department of Agricultural and Food Market Research. Special thanks especially to Professor Monika Hartmann for acting as the project leader of FOODCOMM.

Key Factors Influencing Economic Relationships and Communication in Finnish Food Chains

The aim of this report is to discuss the role of the relationship type and communication in two Finnish food chains, namely the pig meat-to-sausage (pig meat chain) and the cereal-to-rye bread (rye chain) chains. Furthermore, the objective is to examine those factors influencing the choice of a relationship type and the sustainability of a business relationship. Altogether 1808 questionnaires were sent to producers, processors and retailers operating in these two chains of which 224 usable questionnaires were returned (the response rate being 12.4%). The great majority of the respondents (98.7%) were small businesses employing less than 50 people. Almost 70 per cent of the respondents were farmers. In both chains, formal contracts were stated to be the most important relationship type used with business partners. Although for many businesses written contracts are a common business practice, the essential role of the contracts was the security they provide regarding the demand/supply and quality issues. Relative to the choice of the relationship types, the main difference between the two chains emerged especially with the prevalence of spot markets and financial participation arrangements. The usage of spot markets was significantly more common in the rye chain when compared to the pig meat chain, while, on the other hand, financial participation arrangements were much more common among the businesses in the pig meat chain than in the rye chain. Furthermore, the analysis showed that most of the businesses in the pig meat chain claimed not to be free to choose the relationship type they use. Especially membership in a co-operative and practices of a business partner were mentioned as the reasons limiting this freedom of choice. The main business relations in both chains were described as having a long-term orientation and being based on formal written contracts. Typical for the main business relationships was also that they are not based on the existence of the key persons only; the relationship would remain even if the key people left the business. The quality of these relationships was satisfactory in both chains and across all the stakeholder groups, though the downstream processors and the retailers had a slightly more positive view on their main business partners than the farmers and the upstream processors. The businesses operating in the pig meat chain seemed also to be more dependent on their main business relations when compared to the businesses in the rye chain. Although the communication means were rather similar in both chains (the phone being the most important), there was some variation between the chains concerning the communication frequency necessary to maintain the relationship with the main business partner. In short, the businesses in the pig meat chain seemed to appreciate more frequent communication with their main business partners when compared to the businesses in the rye chain. Personal meetings with the main business partners were quite rare in both chains. All the respondent groups were, however, fairly satisfied with the communication frequency and information quality between them and the main business partner. The business cultures could be argued to be rather hegemonic among the businesses both in the pig meat and rye chains. Avoidance of uncertainty, appreciation of long-term orientation and independence were considered important factors in the business cultures. Furthermore, trust, commitment and satisfaction in business partners were thought to be essential elements of business operations in all the respondent groups. In order to investigate which factors have an effect on the choice of a relationship type, several hypotheses were tested by using binary and multinomial logit analyses. According to these analyses it could be argued that avoidance of uncertainty and risk has a certain effect on the relationship type chosen, i.e. the willingness to avoid uncertainty increases the probability to choose stable relationships, like repeated market transactions and formal written contracts, but not necessary those, which require high financial commitment (like financial participation arrangements). The probability of engaging in financial participation arrangements seemed to increase with long-term orientation. The hypotheses concerning the sustainability of the economic relations were tested by using structural equation model (SEM). In the model, five variables were found to have a positive and statistically significant impact on the sustainable economic relationship construct. Ordered relative to their importance, those factors are: (i) communication quality, (ii) personal bonds, (iii) equal power distribution, (iv) local embeddedness and (v) competition.

Boost Customer Loyalty with Online Support. The Case of Mobile Telecoms Providers.

The paper explores the effect of customer satisfaction with online supporting services on loyalty to providers of an offline core service. Supporting services are provided to customers before, during, or after the purchase of a tangible or intangible core product, and have the purpose of enhancing or facilitating the use of this product. The internet has the potential to dominate all other marketing channels when it comes to the interactive and personalised communication that is considered quintessential for supporting services. Our study shows that the quality of online supporting services powerfully affects satisfaction with the provider and customer loyalty through its effect on online value and enjoyment. Managerial implications are provided.

Essays on Stock Options, Incentives, and Managerial Action

Executive compensation and managerial behavior have received an increasing amount of attention in the financial economics literature since the mid 1970s. The purpose of this thesis is to extend our understanding of managerial compensation, especially how stock option compensation is linked to the actions undertaken by the management. Furthermore, managerial compensation is continuously and heatedly debated in the media and an emerging consensus from this discussion seems to be that there still exists gaps in our knowledge of optimal contracting. In Finland, the first executive stock options were introduced in the 1980s and throughout the last 15 years it has become increasingly popular for Finnish listed firms to use this type of managerial compensation. The empirical work in the thesis is conducted using data from Finland, in contrast to most previous studies that predominantly use U.S. data. Using Finnish data provides insight of how market conditions affect compensation and managerial action and provides an opportunity to explore what parts of the U.S. evidence can be generalized to other markets. The thesis consists of four essays. The first essay investigates the exercise policy of the executive stock option holders in Finland. In summary, Essay 1 contributes to our understanding of the exercise policies by examining both the determinants of the exercise decision and the markets reaction to the actual exercises. The second essay analyzes the factors driving stock option grants using data for Finnish publicly listed firms. Several agency theory based variables are found to have have explanatory power on the likelihood of a stock option grant. Essay 2 also contributes to our understanding of behavioral factors, such as prior stock return, as determinants of stock option compensation. The third essay investigates the tax and stock option motives for share repurchases and dividend distributions. We document strong support for the tax motive for share repurchases. Furthermore, we also analyze the dividend distribution decision in companies with stock options and find a significant difference between companies with and without dividend protected options. We thus document that the cutting of dividends found in previous U.S. studies can be avoided by dividend protection. In the fourth essay we approach the puzzle of negative skewness in stock returns from an altogether different angle than in previous studies. We suggest that negative skewness in stock returns is generated by management disclosure practices and find proof for this. More specifically, we find that negative skewness in daily returns is induced by returns for days when non-scheduled firm specific news is disclosed.