Society by Numbers : Studies on Model-Based Explanations in the Social Sciences

The aim of this dissertation is to provide conceptual tools for the social scientist for clarifying, evaluating and comparing explanations of social phenomena based on formal mathematical models. The focus is on relatively simple theoretical models and simulations, not statistical models. These studies apply a theory of explanation according to which explanation is about tracing objective relations of dependence, knowledge of which enables answers to contrastive why and how-questions. This theory is developed further by delineating criteria for evaluating competing explanations and by applying the theory to social scientific modelling practices and to the key concepts of equilibrium and mechanism. The dissertation is comprised of an introductory essay and six published original research articles. The main theses about model-based explanations in the social sciences argued for in the articles are the following. 1) The concept of explanatory power, often used to argue for the superiority of one explanation over another, compasses five dimensions which are partially independent and involve some systematic trade-offs. 2) All equilibrium explanations do not causally explain the obtaining of the end equilibrium state with the multiple possible initial states. Instead, they often constitutively explain the macro property of the system with the micro properties of the parts (together with their organization). 3) There is an important ambivalence in the concept mechanism used in many model-based explanations and this difference corresponds to a difference between two alternative research heuristics. 4) Whether unrealistic assumptions in a model (such as a rational choice model) are detrimental to an explanation provided by the model depends on whether the representation of the explanatory dependency in the model is itself dependent on the particular unrealistic assumptions. Thus evaluating whether a literally false assumption in a model is problematic requires specifying exactly what is supposed to be explained and by what. 5) The question of whether an explanatory relationship depends on particular false assumptions can be explored with the process of derivational robustness analysis and the importance of robustness analysis accounts for some of the puzzling features of the tradition of model-building in economics. 6) The fact that economists have been relatively reluctant to use true agent-based simulations to formulate explanations can partially be explained by the specific ideal of scientific understanding implicit in the practise of orthodox economics.

Human genetic variation in the Baltic Sea region: Features of population history and natural selection

In this thesis, the genetic variation of human populations from the Baltic Sea region was studied in order to elucidate population history as well as evolutionary adaptation in this region. The study provided novel understanding of how the complex population level processes of migration, genetic drift, and natural selection have shaped genetic variation in North European populations. Results from genome-wide, mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosomal analyses suggested that the genetic background of the populations of the Baltic Sea region lies predominantly in Continental Europe, which is consistent with earlier studies and archaeological evidence. The late settlement of Fennoscandia after the Ice Age and the subsequent small population size have led to pronounced genetic drift, especially in Finland and Karelia but also in Sweden, evident especially in genome-wide and Y-chromosomal analyses. Consequently, these populations show striking genetic differentiation, as opposed to much more homogeneous pattern of variation in Central European populations. Additionally, the eastern side of the Baltic Sea was observed to have experienced eastern influence in the genome-wide data as well as in mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosomal variation – consistent with linguistic connections. However, Slavic influence in the Baltic Sea populations appears minor on genetic level. While the genetic diversity of the Finnish population overall was low, genome-wide and Y-chromosomal results showed pronounced regional differences. The genetic distance between Western and Eastern Finland was larger than for many geographically distant population pairs, and provinces also showed genetic differences. This is probably mainly due to the late settlement of Eastern Finland and local isolation, although differences in ancestral migration waves may contribute to this, too. In contrast, mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosomal analyses of the contemporary Swedish population revealed a much less pronounced population structure and a fusion of the traces of ancient admixture, genetic drift, and recent immigration. Genome-wide datasets also provide a resource for studying the adaptive evolution of human populations. This study revealed tens of loci with strong signs of recent positive selection in Northern Europe. These results provide interesting targets for future research on evolutionary adaptation, and may be important for understanding the background of disease-causing variants in human populations.

Analyzing changes in macro-level drivers of country-specific emissions : The role of consumption, technology and trade

Industrial ecology is an important field of sustainability science. It can be applied to study environmental problems in a policy relevant manner. Industrial ecology uses ecosystem analogy; it aims at closing the loop of materials and substances and at the same time reducing resource consumption and environmental emissions. Emissions from human activities are related to human interference in material cycles. Carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are essential elements for all living organisms, but in excess have negative environmental impacts, such as climate change (CO2, CH4 N2O), acidification (NOx) and eutrophication (N, P). Several indirect macro-level drivers affect emissions change. Population and affluence (GDP/capita) often act as upward drivers for emissions. Technology, as emissions per service used, and consumption, as economic intensity of use, may act as drivers resulting in a reduction in emissions. In addition, the development of country-specific emissions is affected by international trade. The aim of this study was to analyse changes in emissions as affected by macro-level drivers in different European case studies. ImPACT decomposition analysis (IPAT identity) was applied as a method in papers I III. The macro-level perspective was applied to evaluate CO2 emission reduction targets (paper II) and the sharing of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets (paper IV) in the European Union (EU27) up to the year 2020. Data for the study were mainly gathered from official statistics. In all cases, the results were discussed from an environmental policy perspective. The development of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions was analysed in the Finnish energy sector during a long time period, 1950 2003 (paper I). Finnish emissions of NOx began to decrease in the 1980s as the progress in technology in terms of NOx/energy curbed the impact of the growth in affluence and population. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions related to energy use during 1993 2004 (paper II) were analysed by country and region within the European Union. Considering energy-based CO2 emissions in the European Union, dematerialization and decarbonisation did occur, but not sufficiently to offset population growth and the rapidly increasing affluence during 1993 2004. The development of nitrogen and phosphorus load from aquaculture in relation to salmonid consumption in Finland during 1980 2007 was examined, including international trade in the analysis (paper III). A regional environmental issue, eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, and a marginal, yet locally important source of nutrients was used as a case. Nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture decreased from the 1990s onwards: although population, affluence and salmonid consumption steadily increased, aquaculture technology improved and the relative share of imported salmonids increased. According to the sustainability challenge in industrial ecology, the environmental impact of the growing population size and affluence should be compensated by improvements in technology (emissions/service used) and with dematerialisation. In the studied cases, the emission intensity of energy production could be lowered for NOx by cleaning the exhaust gases. Reorganization of the structure of energy production as well as technological innovations will be essential in lowering the emissions of both CO2 and NOx. Regarding the intensity of energy use, making the combustion of fuels more efficient and reducing energy use are essential. In reducing nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture to the Baltic Sea (paper III) through technology, limits of biological and physical properties of cultured fish, among others, will eventually be faced. Regarding consumption, salmonids are preferred to many other protein sources. Regarding trade, increasing the proportion of imports will outsource the impacts. Besides improving technology and dematerialization, other viewpoints may also be needed. Reducing the total amount of nutrients cycling in energy systems and eventually contributing to NOx emissions needs to be emphasized. Considering aquaculture emissions, nutrient cycles can be partly closed through using local fish as feed replacing imported feed. In particular, the reduction of CO2 emissions in the future is a very challenging task when considering the necessary rates of dematerialisation and decarbonisation (paper II). Climate change mitigation may have to focus on other greenhouse gases than CO2 and on the potential role of biomass as a carbon sink, among others. The global population is growing and scaling up the environmental impact. Population issues and growing affluence must be considered when discussing emission reductions. Climate policy has only very recently had an influence on emissions, and strong actions are now called for climate change mitigation. Environmental policies in general must cover all the regions related to production and impacts in order to avoid outsourcing of emissions and leakage effects. The macro-level drivers affecting changes in emissions can be identified with the ImPACT framework. Statistics for generally known macro-indicators are currently relatively well available for different countries, and the method is transparent. In the papers included in this study, a similar method was successfully applied in different types of case studies. Using transparent macro-level figures and a simple top-down approach are also appropriate in evaluating and setting international emission reduction targets, as demonstrated in papers II and IV. The projected rates of population and affluence growth are especially worth consideration in setting targets. However, sensitivities in calculations must be carefully acknowledged. In the basic form of the ImPACT model, the economic intensity of consumption and emission intensity of use are included. In seeking to examine consumption but also international trade in more detail, imports were included in paper III. This example demonstrates well how outsourcing of production influences domestic emissions. Country-specific production-based emissions have often been used in similar decomposition analyses. Nevertheless, trade-related issues must not be ignored.

Mulibrey nanism : Clinical characteristics and pathophysiologic features of growth restriction, insulin resistance and tumour development

Background: Mulibrey nanism (MUL; Muscle-liver-brain-eye nanism; OMIM 253250) is an autosomal recessive growth disorder more prevalent in Finland than elsewhere in the world. Clinical characteristics include severe prenatal onset growth restriction, cardiopathy, multiple organ manifestations but no major neurological handicap. MUL is caused by mutations in the TRIM37 gene on chromosome 17q22-23, encoding a peroxisomal protein TRIM37 with ubiquitin E3-ligase activity. Nineteen different mutations have been detected, four of them present in the Finnish patients. Objective: This study aimed to characterize clinical and histopathological features of MUL in the national cohort of Finnish patients. Patients and methods: A total of 92 Finnish patients (age 0.7 to 77 years) participated in the clinical follow-up study. Patients hospital records and growth charts were reviewed. Physical, radiographic and laboratory examinations were performed according to a clinical protocol. Thirty patients (18 females) were treated with recombinant human GH for a median period of 5.7 years. Biopsies and autopsy samples were used for the histopathological and immunohistochemical analyses. Results: MUL patients were born small for gestational age (SGA) with immature craniofacial features after prenatal-onset growth restriction. They experienced a continuous deceleration in both height SDS and weight-for-height (WFH) postnatally. In infancy feeding difficulties and frequent pneumonias were common problems. At the time of diagnosis (median age 2.1 years) characteristic craniofacial, radiological and ocular features were the most constant findings. MUL patients showed a dramatic change in glucose metabolism with increasing age. While the children had low fasting glucose and insulin levels, 90% of the adults were insulin resistant, half had type 2 diabetes and an additional 42% showed impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). Seventy percent fulfilled the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) Adult Treatment Panel III criteria for metabolic syndrome as adults. GH therapy improved pre-pubertal growth but had only minor impact on adult height (+5 cm). Interestingly, treated subjects were slimmer and had less frequent metabolic concerns as young adults. MUL patients displayed histologically a disturbed architecture with ectopic tissues and a high frequency of both benign and malignant tumours present in several internal organs. A total of 232 tumorous lesions were detected in our patient cohort. The majority of the tumours showed strong expression of endothelial cell marker CD34 as well as α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA). Fifteen of the tumours were malignant and seven of them (five Wilms tumours) occurred in the kidney. Conclusions: MUL patients present a distinct postnatal growth pattern. Short-term response of GH treatment is substantial but the long-term impact remains modest. Although MUL patients form a distinct clinical and diagnostic entity, their clinical findings vary considerably from infancy to adulthood. While failure to thrive dominates early life, MUL adults develop metabolic syndrome and have a tendency for malignancies and vascular lesions in several organs. This speaks for a central role of TRIM37 in regulation of key cellular functions, such as proliferation, migration, angiogenesis and insulin signalling.

Features of the geomagnetic field during the Holocene and Proterozoic

The geomagnetic field is one of the most fundamental geophysical properties of the Earth and has significantly contributed to our understanding of the internal structure of the Earth and its evolution. Paleomagnetic and paleointensity data have been crucial in shaping concepts like continental drift, magnetic reversals, as well as estimating the time when the Earth's core and associated geodynamo processes begun. The work of this dissertation is based on reliable Proterozoic and Holocene geomagnetic field intensity data obtained from rocks and archeological artifacts. New archeomagnetic field intensity results are presented for Finland, Estonia, Bulgaria, Italy and Switzerland. The data were obtained using sophisticated laboratory setups as well as various reliability checks and corrections. Inter-laboratory comparisons between three laboratories (Helsinki, Sofia and Liverpool) were performed in order to check the reliability of different paleointensity methods. The new intensity results fill up considerable gaps in the master curves for each region investigated. In order to interpret the paleointensity data of the Holocene period, a novel and user-friendly database (GEOMAGIA50) was constructed. This provided a new tool to independently test the reliability of various techniques and materials used in paleointensity determinations. The results show that archeological artifacts, if well fired, are the most suitable materials. Also lavas yield reliable paleointensity results, although they appear more scattered. This study also shows that reliable estimates are obtained using the Thellier methodology (and its modifications) with reliability checks. Global paleointensity curves during Paleozoic and Proterozoic have several time gaps with few or no intensity data. To define the global intensity behavior of the Earth's magnetic field during these times new rock types (meteorite impact rocks) were investigated. Two case histories are presented. The Ilyinets (Ukraine) impact melt rocks yielded a reliable paleointensity value at 440 Ma (Silurian), whereas the results from Jänisjärvi impact melts (Russian Karelia, ca. 700 Ma) might be biased towards high intensity values because of non-ideal magnetic mineralogy. The features of the geomagnetic field at 1.1 Ga are not well defined due to problems related to reversal asymmetries observed in Keweenawan data of the Lake Superior region. In this work new paleomagnetic, paleosecular variation and paleointensity results are reported from coeval diabases from Central Arizona and help understanding the asymmetry. The results confirm the earlier preliminary observations that the asymmetry is larger in Arizona than in Lake Superior area. Two of the mechanisms proposed to explain the asymmetry remain plausible: the plate motion and the non-dipole influence.

Governance theory as a framework for empirical research : a case study on local environmental policy-making in Helsinki, Finland

Governance has been one of the most popular buzzwords in recent political science. As with any term shared by numerous fields of research, as well as everyday language, governance is encumbered by a jungle of definitions and applications. This work elaborates on the concept of network governance. Network governance refers to complex policy-making situations, where a variety of public and private actors collaborate in order to produce and define policy. Governance is processes of autonomous, self-organizing networks of organizations exchanging information and deliberating. Network governance is a theoretical concept that corresponds to an empirical phenomenon. Often, this phenomenon is used to descirbe a historical development: governance is often used to describe changes in political processes of Western societies since the 1980s. In this work, empirical governance networks are used as an organizing framework, and the concepts of autonomy, self-organization and network structure are developed as tools for empirical analysis of any complex decision-making process. This work develops this framework and explores the governance networks in the case of environmental policy-making in the City of Helsinki, Finland. The crafting of a local ecological sustainability programme required support and knowledge from all sectors of administration, a number of entrepreneurs and companies and the inhabitants of Helsinki. The policy process relied explicitly on networking, with public and private actors collaborating to design policy instruments. Communication between individual organizations led to the development of network structures and patterns. This research analyses these patterns and their effects on policy choice, by applying the methods of social network analysis. A variety of social network analysis methods are used to uncover different features of the networked process. Links between individual network positions, network subgroup structures and macro-level network patterns are compared to the types of organizations involved and final policy instruments chosen. By using governance concepts to depict a policy process, the work aims to assess whether they contribute to models of policy-making. The conclusion is that the governance literature sheds light on events that would otherwise go unnoticed, or whose conceptualization would remain atheoretical. The framework of network governance should be in the toolkit of the policy analyst.