81 resultados para MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY
em Helda - Digital Repository of University of Helsinki
Resumo:
The methods for estimating patient exposure in x-ray imaging are based on the measurement of radiation incident on the patient. In digital imaging, the useful dose range of the detector is large and excessive doses may remain undetected. Therefore, real-time monitoring of radiation exposure is important. According to international recommendations, the measurement uncertainty should be lower than 7% (confidence level 95%). The kerma-area product (KAP) is a measurement quantity used for monitoring patient exposure to radiation. A field KAP meter is typically attached to an x-ray device, and it is important to recognize the effect of this measurement geometry on the response of the meter. In a tandem calibration method, introduced in this study, a field KAP meter is used in its clinical position and calibration is performed with a reference KAP meter. This method provides a practical way to calibrate field KAP meters. However, the reference KAP meters require comprehensive calibration. In the calibration laboratory it is recommended to use standard radiation qualities. These qualities do not entirely correspond to the large range of clinical radiation qualities. In this work, the energy dependence of the response of different KAP meter types was examined. According to our findings, the recommended accuracy in KAP measurements is difficult to achieve with conventional KAP meters because of their strong energy dependence. The energy dependence of the response of a novel large KAP meter was found out to be much lower than with a conventional KAP meter. The accuracy of the tandem method can be improved by using this meter type as a reference meter. A KAP meter cannot be used to determine the radiation exposure of patients in mammography, in which part of the radiation beam is always aimed directly at the detector without attenuation produced by the tissue. This work assessed whether pixel values from this detector area could be used to monitor the radiation beam incident on the patient. The results were congruent with the tube output calculation, which is the method generally used for this purpose. The recommended accuracy can be achieved with the studied method. New optimization of radiation qualities and dose level is needed when other detector types are introduced. In this work, the optimal selections were examined with one direct digital detector type. For this device, the use of radiation qualities with higher energies was recommended and appropriate image quality was achieved by increasing the low dose level of the system.
Resumo:
Aims: The aims of this study were 1) to identify and describe health economic studies that have used quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) based on actual measurements of patients' health-related quality of life (HRQoL); 2) to test the feasibility of routine collection of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) data as an indicator of effectiveness of secondary health care; and 3) to establish and compare the cost-utility of three large-volume surgical procedures in a real-world setting in the Helsinki University Central Hospital, a large referral hospital providing secondary and tertiary health-care services for a population of approximately 1.4 million. Patients and methods: So as to identify studies that have used QALYs as an outcome measure, a systematic search of the literature was performed using the Medline, Embase, CINAHL, SCI and Cochrane Library electronic databases. Initial screening of the identified articles involved two reviewers independently reading the abstracts; the full-text articles were also evaluated independently by two reviewers, with a third reviewer used in cases where the two reviewers could not agree a consensus on which articles should be included. The feasibility of routinely evaluating the cost-effectiveness of secondary health care was tested by setting up a system for collecting HRQoL data on approximately 4 900 patients' HRQoL before and after operative treatments performed in the hospital. The HRQoL data used as an indicator of treatment effectiveness was combined with diagnostic and financial indicators routinely collected in the hospital. To compare the cost-effectiveness of three surgical interventions, 712 patients admitted for routine operative treatment completed the 15D HRQoL questionnaire before and also 3-12 months after the operation. QALYs were calculated using the obtained utility data and expected remaining life years of the patients. Direct hospital costs were obtained from the clinical patient administration database of the hospital and a cost-utility analysis was performed from the perspective of the provider of secondary health care services. Main results: The systematic review (Study I) showed that although QALYs gained are considered an important measure of the effectiveness of health care, the number of studies in which QALYs are based on actual measurements of patients' HRQoL is still fairly limited. Of the reviewed full-text articles, only 70 reported QALYs based on actual before after measurements using a valid HRQoL instrument. Collection of simple cost-effectiveness data in secondary health care is feasible and could easily be expanded and performed on a routine basis (Study II). It allows meaningful comparisons between various treatments and provides a means for allocating limited health care resources. The cost per QALY gained was 2 770 for cervical operations and 1 740 for lumbar operations. In cases where surgery was delayed the cost per QALY was doubled (Study III). The cost per QALY ranges between subgroups in cataract surgery (Study IV). The cost per QALY gained was 5 130 for patients having both eyes operated on and 8 210 for patients with only one eye operated on during the 6-month follow-up. In patients whose first eye had been operated on previous to the study period, the mean HRQoL deteriorated after surgery, thus precluding the establishment of the cost per QALY. In arthroplasty patients (Study V) the mean cost per QALY gained in a one-year period was 6 710 for primary hip replacement, 52 270 for revision hip replacement, and 14 000 for primary knee replacement. Conclusions: Although the importance of cost-utility analyses has during recent years been stressed, there are only a limited number of studies in which the evaluation is based on patients own assessment of the treatment effectiveness. Most of the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses are based on modeling that employs expert opinion regarding the outcome of treatment, not on patient-derived assessments. Routine collection of effectiveness information from patients entering treatment in secondary health care turned out to be easy enough and did not, for instance, require additional personnel on the wards in which the study was executed. The mean patient response rate was more than 70 %, suggesting that patients were happy to participate and appreciated the fact that the hospital showed an interest in their well-being even after the actual treatment episode had ended. Spinal surgery leads to a statistically significant and clinically important improvement in HRQoL. The cost per QALY gained was reasonable, at less than half of that observed for instance for hip replacement surgery. However, prolonged waiting for an operation approximately doubled the cost per QALY gained from the surgical intervention. The mean utility gain following routine cataract surgery in a real world setting was relatively small and confined mostly to patients who had had both eyes operated on. The cost of cataract surgery per QALY gained was higher than previously reported and was associated with considerable degree of uncertainty. Hip and knee replacement both improve HRQoL. The cost per QALY gained from knee replacement is two-fold compared to hip replacement. Cost-utility results from the three studied specialties showed that there is great variation in the cost-utility of surgical interventions performed in a real-world setting even when only common, widely accepted interventions are considered. However, the cost per QALY of all the studied interventions, except for revision hip arthroplasty, was well below 50 000, this figure being sometimes cited in the literature as a threshold level for the cost-effectiveness of an intervention. Based on the present study it may be concluded that routine evaluation of the cost-utility of secondary health care is feasible and produces information essential for a rational and balanced allocation of scarce health care resources.
Resumo:
We present a measurement of the top quark mass and of the top-antitop pair production cross section using p-pbar data collected with the CDFII detector at the Tevatron Collider at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.9 fb-1. We select events with six or more jets satisfying a number of kinematical requirements imposed by means of a neural network algorithm. At least one of these jets must originate from a b quark, as identified by the reconstruction of a secondary vertex inside the jet. The mass measurement is based on a likelihood fit incorporating reconstructed mass distributions representative of signal and background, where the absolute jet energy scale (JES) is measured simultaneously with the top quark mass. The measurement yields a value of 174.8 +- 2.4(stat+JES) ^{+1.2}_{-1.0}(syst) GeV/c^2, where the uncertainty from the absolute jet energy scale is evaluated together with the statistical uncertainty. The procedure measures also the amount of signal from which we derive a cross section, sigma_{ttbar} = 7.2 +- 0.5(stat) +- 1.0 (syst) +- 0.4 (lum) pb, for the measured values of top quark mass and JES.
Resumo:
We report a measurement of the ratio of the tt̅ to Z/γ* production cross sections in √s=1.96 TeV pp̅ collisions using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of up to 4.6 fb-1, collected by the CDF II detector. The tt̅ cross section ratio is measured using two complementary methods, a b-jet tagging measurement and a topological approach. By multiplying the ratios by the well-known theoretical Z/γ*→ll cross section predicted by the standard model, the extracted tt̅ cross sections are effectively insensitive to the uncertainty on luminosity. A best linear unbiased estimate is used to combine both measurements with the result σtt̅ =7.70±0.52 pb, for a top-quark mass of 172.5 GeV/c2.
Resumo:
We report a measurement of the ratio of the tt̅ to Z/γ* production cross sections in √s=1.96 TeV pp̅ collisions using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of up to 4.6 fb-1, collected by the CDF II detector. The tt̅ cross section ratio is measured using two complementary methods, a b-jet tagging measurement and a topological approach. By multiplying the ratios by the well-known theoretical Z/γ*→ll cross section predicted by the standard model, the extracted tt̅ cross sections are effectively insensitive to the uncertainty on luminosity. A best linear unbiased estimate is used to combine both measurements with the result σtt̅ =7.70±0.52 pb, for a top-quark mass of 172.5 GeV/c2.
Resumo:
We report a measurement of the ratio of the top-antitop to Z/gamma* production cross sections in sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV proton-antiproton collisions using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of up to 4.6 fb-1, collected by the CDF II detector. The top-antitop cross section ratio is measured using two complementary methods, a b-jet tagging measurement and a topological approach. By multiplying the ratios by the well-known theoretical Z/gamma*->ll cross section, the extracted top-antitop cross sections are effectively insensitive to the uncertainty on luminosity. A best linear unbiased estimate is used to combine both measurements with the result sigma_(top-antitop) = 7.70 +/- 0.52 pb, for a top-quark mass of 172.5 GeV/c^2.
Resumo:
We present a measurement of the top quark mass in the all-hadronic channel (\tt $\to$ \bb$q_{1}\bar{q_{2}}q_{3}\bar{q_{4}}$) using 943 pb$^{-1}$ of \ppbar collisions at $\sqrt {s} = 1.96$ TeV collected at the CDF II detector at Fermilab (CDF). We apply the standard model production and decay matrix-element (ME) to $\ttbar$ candidate events. We calculate per-event probability densities according to the ME calculation and construct template models of signal and background. The scale of the jet energy is calibrated using additional templates formed with the invariant mass of pairs of jets. These templates form an overall likelihood function that depends on the top quark mass and on the jet energy scale (JES). We estimate both by maximizing this function. Given 72 observed events, we measure a top quark mass of 171.1 $\pm$ 3.7 (stat.+JES) $\pm$ 2.1 (syst.) GeV/$c^{2}$. The combined uncertainty on the top quark mass is 4.3 GeV/$c^{2}$.
Resumo:
We present a laser-based system to measure the refractive index of air over a long path length. In optical distance measurements it is essential to know the refractive index of air with high accuracy. Commonly, the refractive index of air is calculated from the properties of the ambient air using either Ciddor or Edlén equations, where the dominant uncertainty component is in most cases the air temperature. The method developed in this work utilises direct absorption spectroscopy of oxygen to measure the average temperature of air and of water vapor to measure relative humidity. The method allows measurement of temperature and humidity over the same beam path as in optical distance measurement, providing spatially well matching data. Indoor and outdoor measurements demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. In particular, we demonstrate an effective compensation of the refractive index of air in an interferometric length measurement at a time-variant and spatially non-homogenous temperature over a long time period. Further, we were able to demonstrate 7 mK RMS noise over a 67 m path length using 120 s sample time. To our knowledge, this is the best temperature precision reported for a spectroscopic temperature measurement.
Resumo:
The forest simulator is a computerized model for predicting forest growth and future development as well as effects of forest harvests and treatments. The forest planning system is a decision support tool, usually including a forest simulator and an optimisation model, for finding the optimal forest management actions. The information produced by forest simulators and forest planning systems is used for various analytical purposes and in support of decision making. However, the quality and reliability of this information can often be questioned. Natural variation in forest growth and estimation errors in forest inventory, among other things, cause uncertainty in predictions of forest growth and development. This uncertainty stemming from different sources has various undesirable effects. In many cases outcomes of decisions based on uncertain information are something else than desired. The objective of this thesis was to study various sources of uncertainty and their effects in forest simulators and forest planning systems. The study focused on three notable sources of uncertainty: errors in forest growth predictions, errors in forest inventory data, and stochastic fluctuation of timber assortment prices. Effects of uncertainty were studied using two types of forest growth models, individual tree-level models and stand-level models, and with various error simulation methods. New method for simulating more realistic forest inventory errors was introduced and tested. Also, three notable sources of uncertainty were combined and their joint effects on stand-level net present value estimates were simulated. According to the results, the various sources of uncertainty can have distinct effects in different forest growth simulators. The new forest inventory error simulation method proved to produce more realistic errors. The analysis on the joint effects of various sources of uncertainty provided interesting knowledge about uncertainty in forest simulators.
Resumo:
The aim of this thesis is to develop a fully automatic lameness detection system that operates in a milking robot. The instrumentation, measurement software, algorithms for data analysis and a neural network model for lameness detection were developed. Automatic milking has become a common practice in dairy husbandry, and in the year 2006 about 4000 farms worldwide used over 6000 milking robots. There is a worldwide movement with the objective of fully automating every process from feeding to milking. Increase in automation is a consequence of increasing farm sizes, the demand for more efficient production and the growth of labour costs. As the level of automation increases, the time that the cattle keeper uses for monitoring animals often decreases. This has created a need for systems for automatically monitoring the health of farm animals. The popularity of milking robots also offers a new and unique possibility to monitor animals in a single confined space up to four times daily. Lameness is a crucial welfare issue in the modern dairy industry. Limb disorders cause serious welfare, health and economic problems especially in loose housing of cattle. Lameness causes losses in milk production and leads to early culling of animals. These costs could be reduced with early identification and treatment. At present, only a few methods for automatically detecting lameness have been developed, and the most common methods used for lameness detection and assessment are various visual locomotion scoring systems. The problem with locomotion scoring is that it needs experience to be conducted properly, it is labour intensive as an on-farm method and the results are subjective. A four balance system for measuring the leg load distribution of dairy cows during milking in order to detect lameness was developed and set up in the University of Helsinki Research farm Suitia. The leg weights of 73 cows were successfully recorded during almost 10,000 robotic milkings over a period of 5 months. The cows were locomotion scored weekly, and the lame cows were inspected clinically for hoof lesions. Unsuccessful measurements, caused by cows standing outside the balances, were removed from the data with a special algorithm, and the mean leg loads and the number of kicks during milking was calculated. In order to develop an expert system to automatically detect lameness cases, a model was needed. A probabilistic neural network (PNN) classifier model was chosen for the task. The data was divided in two parts and 5,074 measurements from 37 cows were used to train the model. The operation of the model was evaluated for its ability to detect lameness in the validating dataset, which had 4,868 measurements from 36 cows. The model was able to classify 96% of the measurements correctly as sound or lame cows, and 100% of the lameness cases in the validation data were identified. The number of measurements causing false alarms was 1.1%. The developed model has the potential to be used for on-farm decision support and can be used in a real-time lameness monitoring system.
Resumo:
Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea is a serious problem. This thesis estimates the benefit to Finns from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland, the most eutrophied part of the Baltic Sea, by applying the choice experiment method, which belongs to the family of stated preference methods. Because stated preference methods have been subject to criticism, e.g., due to their hypothetical survey context, this thesis contributes to the discussion by studying two anomalies that may lead to biased welfare estimates: respondent uncertainty and preference discontinuity. The former refers to the difficulty of stating one s preferences for an environmental good in a hypothetical context. The latter implies a departure from the continuity assumption of conventional consumer theory, which forms the basis for the method and the analysis. In the three essays of the thesis, discrete choice data are analyzed with the multinomial logit and mixed logit models. On average, Finns are willing to contribute to the water quality improvement. The probability for willingness increases with residential or recreational contact with the gulf, higher than average income, younger than average age, and the absence of dependent children in the household. On average, for Finns the relatively most important characteristic of water quality is water clarity followed by the desire for fewer occurrences of blue-green algae. For future nutrient reduction scenarios, the annual mean household willingness to pay estimates range from 271 to 448 and the aggregate welfare estimates for Finns range from 28 billion to 54 billion euros, depending on the model and the intensity of the reduction. Out of the respondents (N=726), 72.1% state in a follow-up question that they are either Certain or Quite certain about their answer when choosing the preferred alternative in the experiment. Based on the analysis of other follow-up questions and another sample (N=307), 10.4% of the respondents are identified as potentially having discontinuous preferences. In relation to both anomalies, the respondent- and questionnaire-specific variables are found among the underlying causes and a departure from standard analysis may improve the model fit and the efficiency of estimates, depending on the chosen modeling approach. The introduction of uncertainty about the future state of the Gulf increases the acceptance of the valuation scenario which may indicate an increased credibility of a proposed scenario. In conclusion, modeling preference heterogeneity is an essential part of the analysis of discrete choice data. The results regarding uncertainty in stating one s preferences and non-standard choice behavior are promising: accounting for these anomalies in the analysis may improve the precision of the estimates of benefit from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland.
Resumo:
This study evaluates how the advection of precipitation, or wind drift, between the radar volume and ground affects radar measurements of precipitation. Normally precipitation is assumed to fall vertically to the ground from the contributing volume, and thus the radar measurement represents the geographical location immediately below. In this study radar measurements are corrected using hydrometeor trajectories calculated from measured and forecasted winds, and the effect of trajectory-correction on the radar measurements is evaluated. Wind drift statistics for Finland are compiled using sounding data from two weather stations spanning two years. For each sounding, the hydrometeor phase at ground level is estimated and drift distance calculated using different originating level heights. This way the drift statistics are constructed as a function of range from radar and elevation angle. On average, wind drift of 1 km was exceeded at approximately 60 km distance, while drift of 10 km was exceeded at 100 km distance. Trajectories were calculated using model winds in order to produce a trajectory-corrected ground field from radar PPI images. It was found that at the upwind side from the radar the effective measuring area was reduced as some trajectories exited the radar volume scan. In the downwind side areas near the edge of the radar measuring area experience improved precipitation detection. The effect of trajectory-correction is most prominent in instant measurements and diminishes when accumulating over longer time periods. Furthermore, measurements of intensive and small scale precipitation patterns benefit most from wind drift correction. The contribution of wind drift on the uncertainty of estimated Ze (S) - relationship was studied by simulating the effect of different error sources to the uncertainty in the relationship coefficients a and b. The overall uncertainty was assumed to consist of systematic errors of both the radar and the gauge, as well as errors by turbulence at the gauge orifice and by wind drift of precipitation. The focus of the analysis is error associated with wind drift, which was determined by describing the spatial structure of the reflectivity field using spatial autocovariance (or variogram). This spatial structure was then used with calculated drift distances to estimate the variance in radar measurement produced by precipitation drift, relative to the other error sources. It was found that error by wind drift was of similar magnitude with error by turbulence at gauge orifice at all ranges from radar, with systematic errors of the instruments being a minor issue. The correction method presented in the study could be used in radar nowcasting products to improve the estimation of visibility and local precipitation intensities. The method however only considers pure snow, and for operational purposes some improvements are desirable, such as melting layer detection, VPR correction and taking solid state hydrometeor type into account, which would improve the estimation of vertical velocities of the hydrometeors.