Characterisation and source identification of pollution episodes caused by long-range transported aerosols

Aerosol particles can cause detrimental environmental and health effects. The particles and their precursor gases are emitted from various anthropogenic and natural sources. It is important to know the origin and properties of aerosols to efficiently reduce their harmful effects. The diameter of aerosol particles (Dp) varies between ~0.001 and ~100 μm. Fine particles (PM2.5: Dp < 2.5 μm) are especially interesting because they are the most harmful and can be transported over long distances. The aim of this thesis is to study the impact on air quality by pollution episodes of long-range transported aerosols affecting the composition of the boundary-layer atmosphere in remote and relatively unpolluted regions of the world. The sources and physicochemical properties of aerosols were investigated in detail, based on various measurements (1) in southern Finland during selected long-range transport (LRT) pollution episodes and unpolluted periods and (2) over the Atlantic Ocean between Europe and Antarctica during a voyage. Furthermore, the frequency of LRT pollution episodes of fine particles in southern Finland was investigated over a period of 8 years, using long-term air quality monitoring data. In southern Finland, the annual mean PM2.5 mass concentrations were low but LRT caused high peaks of daily mean concentrations every year. At an urban background site in Helsinki, the updated WHO guideline value (24-h PM2.5 mean 25 μg/m3) was exceeded during 1-7 LRT episodes each year during 1999-2006. The daily mean concentrations varied between 25 and 49 μg/m3 during the episodes, which was 3-6 times higher than the mean concentration in the long term. The in-depth studies of selected LRT episodes in southern Finland revealed that biomass burning in agricultural fields and wildfires, occurring mainly in Eastern Europe, deteriorated air quality on a continental scale. The strongest LRT episodes of fine particles resulted from open biomass-burning fires but the emissions from other anthropogenic sources in Eastern Europe also caused significant LRT episodes. Particle mass and number concentrations increased strongly in the accumulation mode (Dp ~ 0.09-1 μm) during the LRT episodes. However, the concentrations of smaller particles (Dp < 0.09 μm) remained low or even decreased due to the uptake of vapours and molecular clusters by LRT particles. The chemical analysis of individual particles showed that the proportions of several anthropogenic particle types increased (e.g. tar balls, metal oxides/hydroxides, spherical silicate fly ash particles and various calcium-rich particles) in southern Finland during an LRT episode, when aerosols originated from the polluted regions of Eastern Europe and some open biomass-burning smoke was also brought in by LRT. During unpolluted periods when air masses arrived from the north, the proportions of marine aerosols increased. In unpolluted rural regions of southern Finland, both accumulation mode particles and small-sized (Dp ~ 1-3 μm) coarse mode particles originated mostly from LRT. However, the composition of particles was totally different in these size fractions. In both size fractions, strong internal mixing of chemical components was typical for LRT particles. Thus, the aging of particles has significant impacts on their chemical, hygroscopic and optical properties, which can largely alter the environmental and health effects of LRT aerosols. Over the Atlantic Ocean, the individual particle composition of small-sized (Dp ~ 1-3 μm) coarse mode particles was affected by continental aerosol plumes to distances of at least 100-1000 km from the coast (e.g. pollutants from industrialized Europe, desert dust from the Sahara and biomass-burning aerosols near the Gulf of Guinea). The rate of chloride depletion from sea-salt particles was high near the coasts of Europe and Africa when air masses arrived from polluted continental regions. Thus, the LRT of continental aerosols had significant impacts on the composition of the marine boundary-layer atmosphere and seawater. In conclusion, integration of the results obtained using different measurement techniques captured the large spatial and temporal variability of aerosols as observed at terrestrial and marine sites, and assisted in establishing the causal link between land-bound emissions, LRT and air quality.

Molecular dynamics studies of nanoparticle impacts

This thesis concerns the dynamics of nanoparticle impacts on solid surfaces. These impacts occur, for instance, in space, where micro- and nanometeoroids hit surfaces of planets, moons, and spacecraft. On Earth, materials are bombarded with nanoparticles in cluster ion beam devices, in order to clean or smooth their surfaces, or to analyse their elemental composition. In both cases, the result depends on the combined effects of countless single impacts. However, the dynamics of single impacts must be understood before the overall effects of nanoparticle radiation can be modelled. In addition to applications, nanoparticle impacts are also important to basic research in the nanoscience field, because the impacts provide an excellent case to test the applicability of atomic-level interaction models to very dynamic conditions. In this thesis, the stopping of nanoparticles in matter is explored using classical molecular dynamics computer simulations. The materials investigated are gold, silicon, and silica. Impacts on silicon through a native oxide layer and formation of complex craters are also simulated. Nanoparticles up to a diameter of 20 nm (315000 atoms) were used as projectiles. The molecular dynamics method and interatomic potentials for silicon and gold are examined in this thesis. It is shown that the displacement cascade expansionmechanism and crater crown formation are very sensitive to the choice of atomic interaction model. However, the best of the current interatomic models can be utilized in nanoparticle impact simulation, if caution is exercised. The stopping of monatomic ions in matter is understood very well nowadays. However, interactions become very complex when several atoms impact on a surface simultaneously and within a short distance, as happens in a nanoparticle impact. A high energy density is deposited in a relatively small volume, which induces ejection of material and formation of a crater. Very high yields of excavated material are observed experimentally. In addition, the yields scale nonlinearly with the cluster size and impact energy at small cluster sizes, whereas in macroscopic hypervelocity impacts, the scaling 2 is linear. The aim of this thesis is to explore the atomistic mechanisms behind the nonlinear scaling at small cluster sizes. It is shown here that the nonlinear scaling of ejected material yield disappears at large impactor sizes because the stopping mechanism of nanoparticles gradually changes to the same mechanism as in macroscopic hypervelocity impacts. The high yields at small impactor size are due to the early escape of energetic atoms from the hot region. In addition, the sputtering yield is shown to depend very much on the spatial initial energy and momentum distributions that the nanoparticle induces in the material in the first phase of the impact. At the later phases, the ejection of material occurs by several mechanisms. The most important mechanism at high energies or at large cluster sizes is atomic cluster ejection from the transient liquid crown that surrounds the crater. The cluster impact dynamics detected in the simulations are in agreement with several recent experimental results. In addition, it is shown that relatively weak impacts can induce modifications on the surface of an amorphous target over a larger area than was previously expected. This is a probable explanation for the formation of the complex crater shapes observed on these surfaces with atomic force microscopy. Clusters that consist of hundreds of thousands of atoms induce long-range modifications in crystalline gold.

On the Origin of Ideas : An Abductivist Approach to Discovery

The purpose of this study is to analyze and develop various forms of abduction as a means of conceptualizing processes of discovery. Abduction was originally presented by Charles S. Peirce (1839-1914) as a "weak", third main mode of inference -- besides deduction and induction -- one which, he proposed, is closely related to many kinds of cognitive processes, such as instincts, perception, practices and mediated activity in general. Both abduction and discovery are controversial issues in philosophy of science. It is often claimed that discovery cannot be a proper subject area for conceptual analysis and, accordingly, abduction cannot serve as a "logic of discovery". I argue, however, that abduction gives essential means for understanding processes of discovery although it cannot give rise to a manual or algorithm for making discoveries. In the first part of the study, I briefly present how the main trend in philosophy of science has, for a long time, been critical towards a systematic account of discovery. Various models have, however, been suggested. I outline a short history of abduction; first Peirce's evolving forms of his theory, and then later developments. Although abduction has not been a major area of research until quite recently, I review some critiques of it and look at the ways it has been analyzed, developed and used in various fields of research. Peirce's own writings and later developments, I argue, leave room for various subsequent interpretations of abduction. The second part of the study consists of six research articles. First I treat "classical" arguments against abduction as a logic of discovery. I show that by developing strategic aspects of abductive inference these arguments can be countered. Nowadays the term 'abduction' is often used as a synonym for the Inference to the Best Explanation (IBE) model. I argue, however, that it is useful to distinguish between IBE ("Harmanian abduction") and "Hansonian abduction"; the latter concentrating on analyzing processes of discovery. The distinctions between loveliness and likeliness, and between potential and actual explanations are more fruitful within Hansonian abduction. I clarify the nature of abduction by using Peirce's distinction between three areas of "semeiotic": grammar, critic, and methodeutic. Grammar (emphasizing "Firstnesses" and iconicity) and methodeutic (i.e., a processual approach) especially, give new means for understanding abduction. Peirce himself held a controversial view that new abductive ideas are products of an instinct and an inference at the same time. I maintain that it is beneficial to make a clear distinction between abductive inference and abductive instinct, on the basis of which both can be developed further. Besides these, I analyze abduction as a part of distributed cognition which emphasizes a long-term interaction with the material, social and cultural environment as a source for abductive ideas. This approach suggests a "trialogical" model in which inquirers are fundamentally connected both to other inquirers and to the objects of inquiry. As for the classical Meno paradox about discovery, I show that abduction provides more than one answer. As my main example of abductive methodology, I analyze the process of Ignaz Semmelweis' research on childbed fever. A central basis for abduction is the claim that discovery is not a sequence of events governed only by processes of chance. Abduction treats those processes which both constrain and instigate the search for new ideas; starting from the use of clues as a starting point for discovery, but continuing in considerations like elegance and 'loveliness'. The study then continues a Peircean-Hansonian research programme by developing abduction as a way of analyzing processes of discovery.

Aspects and Applications of Pulse Sequence Design for Solution-State Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy

NMR spectroscopy enables the study of biomolecules from peptides and carbohydrates to proteins at atomic resolution. The technique uniquely allows for structure determination of molecules in solution-state. It also gives insights into dynamics and intermolecular interactions important for determining biological function. Detailed molecular information is entangled in the nuclear spin states. The information can be extracted by pulse sequences designed to measure the desired molecular parameters. Advancement of pulse sequence methodology therefore plays a key role in the development of biomolecular NMR spectroscopy. A range of novel pulse sequences for solution-state NMR spectroscopy are presented in this thesis. The pulse sequences are described in relation to the molecular information they provide. The pulse sequence experiments represent several advances in NMR spectroscopy with particular emphasis on applications for proteins. Some of the novel methods are focusing on methyl-containing amino acids which are pivotal for structure determination. Methyl-specific assignment schemes are introduced for increasing the size range of 13C,15N labeled proteins amenable to structure determination without resolving to more elaborate labeling schemes. Furthermore, cost-effective means are presented for monitoring amide and methyl correlations simultaneously. Residual dipolar couplings can be applied for structure refinement as well as for studying dynamics. Accurate methods for measuring residual dipolar couplings in small proteins are devised along with special techniques applicable when proteins require high pH or high temperature solvent conditions. Finally, a new technique is demonstrated to diminish strong-coupling induced artifacts in HMBC, a routine experiment for establishing long-range correlations in unlabeled molecules. The presented experiments facilitate structural studies of biomolecules by NMR spectroscopy.

Chemical and source characterisation of size-segregated urban air particulate matter

Recent epidemiological studies have shown a consistent association of the mass concentration of urban air thoracic (PM10) and fine (PM2.5) particles with mortality and morbidity among cardiorespiratory patients. However, the chemical characteristics of different particulate size ranges and the biological mechanisms responsible for these adverse health effects are not well known. The principal aims of this thesis were to validate a high volume cascade impactor (HVCI) for the collection of particulate matter for physicochemical and toxicological studies, and to make an in-depth chemical and source characterisation of samples collected during different pollution situations. The particulate samples were collected with the HVCI, virtual impactors and a Berner low pressure impactor in six European cities: Helsinki, Duisburg, Prague, Amsterdam, Barcelona and Athens. The samples were analysed for particle mass, common ions, total and water-soluble elements as well as elemental and organic carbon. Laboratory calibration and field comparisons indicated that the HVCI can provide a unique large capacity, high efficiency sampling of size-segregated aerosol particles. The cutoff sizes of the recommended HVCI configuration were 2.4, 0.9 and 0.2 μm. The HVCI mass concentrations were in a good agreement with the reference methods, but the chemical composition of especially the fine particulate samples showed some differences. This implies that the chemical characterization of the exposure variable in toxicological studies needs to be done from the same HVCI samples as used in cell and animal studies. The data from parallel, low volume reference samplers provide valuable additional information for chemical mass closure and source assessment. The major components of PM2.5 in the virtual impactor samples were carbonaceous compounds, secondary inorganic ions and sea salt, whereas those of coarse particles (PM2.5-10) were soil-derived compounds, carbonaceous compounds, sea salt and nitrate. The major and minor components together accounted for 77-106% and 77-96% of the gravimetrically-measured masses of fine and coarse particles, respectively. Relatively large differences between sampling campaigns were observed in the organic carbon content of the PM2.5 samples as well as the mineral composition of the PM2.5-10 samples. A source assessment based on chemical tracers suggested clear differences in the dominant sources (e.g. traffic, residential heating with solid fuels, metal industry plants, regional or long-range transport) between the sampling campaigns. In summary, the field campaigns exhibited different profiles with regard to particulate sources, size distribution and chemical composition, thus, providing a highly useful setup for toxicological studies on the size-segregated HVCI samples.

On measurements of formation, growth, hygroscopicity, and volatility of atmospheric ultrafine particles

Atmospheric aerosol particles affect the global climate as well as human health. In this thesis, formation of nanometer sized atmospheric aerosol particles and their subsequent growth was observed to occur all around the world. Typical formation rate of 3 nm particles at varied from 0.01 to 10 cm-3s-1. One order of magnitude higher formation rates were detected in urban environment. Highest formation rates up to 105 cm-3s-1 were detected in coastal areas and in industrial pollution plumes. Subsequent growth rates varied from 0.01 to 20 nm h-1. Smallest growth rates were observed in polar areas and the largest in the polluted urban environment. This was probably due to competition between growth by condensation and loss by coagulation. Observed growth rates were used in the calculation of a proxy condensable vapour concentration and its source rate in vastly different environments from pristine Antarctica to polluted India. Estimated concentrations varied only 2 orders of magnitude, but the source rates for the vapours varied up to 4 orders of magnitude. Highest source rates were in New Delhi and lowest were in the Antarctica. Indirect methods were applied to study the growth of freshly formed particles in the atmosphere. Also a newly developed Water Condensation Particle Counter, TSI 3785, was found to be a potential candidate to detect water solubility and thus indirectly composition of atmospheric ultra-fine particles. Based on indirect methods, the relative roles of sulphuric acid, non-volatile material and coagulation were investigated in rural Melpitz, Germany. Condensation of non-volatile material explained 20-40% and sulphuric acid the most of the remaining growth up to a point, when nucleation mode reached 10 to 20 nm in diameter. Coagulation contributed typically less than 5%. Furthermore, hygroscopicity measurements were applied to detect the contribution of water soluble and insoluble components in Athens. During more polluted days, the water soluble components contributed more to the growth. During less anthropogenic influence, non-soluble compounds explained a larger fraction of the growth. In addition, long range transport to a measurement station in Finland in a relatively polluted air mass was found to affect the hygroscopicity of the particles. This aging could have implications to cloud formation far away from the pollution sources.

Evaluation and modelling of the spatial and temporal variability of particulate matter in urban areas

This thesis contains three subject areas concerning particulate matter in urban area air quality: 1) Analysis of the measured concentrations of particulate matter mass concentrations in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area (HMA) in different locations in relation to traffic sources, and at different times of year and day. 2) The evolution of traffic exhaust originated particulate matter number concentrations and sizes in local street scale are studied by a combination of a dispersion model and an aerosol process model. 3) Some situations of high particulate matter concentrations are analysed with regard to their meteorological origins, especially temperature inversion situations, in the HMA and three other European cities. The prediction of the occurrence of meteorological conditions conducive to elevated particulate matter concentrations in the studied cities is examined. The performance of current numerical weather forecasting models in the case of air pollution episode situations is considered. The study of the ambient measurements revealed clear diurnal variation of the PM10 concentrations in the HMA measurement sites, irrespective of the year and the season of the year. The diurnal variation of local vehicular traffic flows seemed to have no substantial correlation with the PM2.5 concentrations, indicating that the PM10 concentrations were originated mainly from local vehicular traffic (direct emissions and suspension), while the PM2.5 concentrations were mostly of regionally and long-range transported origin. The modelling study of traffic exhaust dispersion and transformation showed that the number concentrations of particles originating from street traffic exhaust undergo a substantial change during the first tens of seconds after being emitted from the vehicle tailpipe. The dilution process was shown to dominate total number concentrations. Minimal effect of both condensation and coagulation was seen in the Aitken mode number concentrations. The included air pollution episodes were chosen on the basis of occurrence in either winter or spring, and having at least partly local origin. In the HMA, air pollution episodes were shown to be linked to predominantly stable atmospheric conditions with high atmospheric pressure and low wind speeds in conjunction with relatively low ambient temperatures. For the other European cities studied, the best meteorological predictors for the elevated concentrations of PM10 were shown to be temporal (hourly) evolutions of temperature inversions, stable atmospheric stability and in some cases, wind speed. Concerning the weather prediction during particulate matter related air pollution episodes, the use of the studied models were found to overpredict pollutant dispersion, leading to underprediction of pollutant concentration levels.

Hydrogen soil deposition and atmospheric variations in the boreal zone

This research has been prompted by an interest in the atmospheric processes of hydrogen. The sources and sinks of hydrogen are important to know, particularly if hydrogen becomes more common as a replacement for fossil fuel in combustion. Hydrogen deposition velocities (vd) were estimated by applying chamber measurements, a radon tracer method and a two-dimensional model. These three approaches were compared with each other to discover the factors affecting the soil uptake rate. A static-closed chamber technique was introduced to determine the hydrogen deposition velocity values in an urban park in Helsinki, and at a rural site at Loppi. A three-day chamber campaign to carry out soil uptake estimation was held at a remote site at Pallas in 2007 and 2008. The atmospheric mixing ratio of molecular hydrogen has also been measured by a continuous method in Helsinki in 2007 - 2008 and at Pallas from 2006 onwards. The mean vd values measured in the chamber experiments in Helsinki and Loppi were between 0.0 and 0.7 mm s-1. The ranges of the results with the radon tracer method and the two-dimensional model were 0.13 - 0.93 mm s-1 and 0.12 - 0.61 mm s-1, respectively, in Helsinki. The vd values in the three-day campaign at Pallas were 0.06 - 0.52 mm s-1 (chamber) and 0.18 - 0.52 mm s-1 (radon tracer method and two-dimensional model). At Kumpula, the radon tracer method and the chamber measurements produced higher vd values than the two-dimensional model. The results of all three methods were close to each other between November and April, except for the chamber results from January to March, while the soil was frozen. The hydrogen deposition velocity values of all three methods were compared with one-week cumulative rain sums. Precipitation increases the soil moisture, which decreases the soil uptake rate. The measurements made in snow seasons showed that a thick snow layer also hindered gas diffusion, lowering the vd values. The H2 vd values were compared to the snow depth. A decaying exponential fit was obtained as a result. During a prolonged drought in summer 2006, soil moisture values were lower than in other summer months between 2005 and 2008. Such conditions were prevailing in summer 2006 when high chamber vd values were measured. The mixing ratio of molecular hydrogen has a seasonal variation. The lowest atmospheric mixing ratios were found in the late autumn when high deposition velocity values were still being measured. The carbon monoxide (CO) mixing ratio was also measured. Hydrogen and carbon monoxide are highly correlated in an urban environment, due to the emissions originating from traffic. After correction for the soil deposition of H2, the slope was 0.49±0.07 ppb (H2) / ppb (CO). Using the corrected hydrogen-to-carbon-monoxide ratio, the total hydrogen load emitted by Helsinki traffic in 2007 was 261 t (H2) a-1. Hydrogen, methane and carbon monoxide are connected with each other through the atmospheric methane oxidation process, in which formaldehyde is produced as an important intermediate. The photochemical degradation of formaldehyde produces hydrogen and carbon monoxide as end products. Examination of back-trajectories revealed long-range transportation of carbon monoxide and methane. The trajectories can be grouped by applying cluster and source analysis methods. Thus natural and anthropogenic emission sources can be separated by analyzing trajectory clusters.

Worksite Fitness Policy in an Intellectual Capital Framework

In a framework of Intellectual Capital (IC), the effects and interactions of a Worksite Fitness Program (WFP) policy was studied with a multidisciplinary approach. In a preliminary study, indicators for physical activity (PAI), physical fitness (PFI), activity in WFP on a regular (WFPI) and on a events basis (WFPE) were created in line with positive findings regarding the associations between physical activity and fitness patterns and sick leave, perceived health, and self-assessed work ability. The intensity of physical activity was found to be the most important variable to predict positive associations with the above mentioned wellness parameters. In four case study follow-up settings, the effects and interactions of physical activity and fitness patterns and the company’s WFP-policy on different elements of IC were studied. Qualitative methods were applied in constructing indicators and a descriptive IC measure for each case company. In cross-sectional and follow-up settings, several findings with respect to IC were found regarding physical activity in general and activity in WFP in particular. Findings were relatively strong in health and wellness related indicators in Human Capital, where, as also in Structural Capital indicators such as the company climate and employee-superior relationship, revealed positive associations. Physical activity patterns were found to act in minor role in Relational Capital. Overall, WFP was seen to be an integrated part of Structural Capital. From the viewpoint of Worksite Fitness Program as a phenomenon, this study positioned WFP as an active element of Intellectual Capital. The literature in the field of WFP emphasizes the role of WFP as an instrument to activate employees in physical activity, and thus promote their health and wellbeing. With the wider perspective the active and long range WFP policy can support a company’s Structural and Relational Capital in line with the fundamental role it has on Human Capital.

Lumettoman maan routaolojen mallintaminen ja ennustettavuus muuttuvassa ilmastossa

Raportissa on arvioitu ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutusta Suomen maaperän talviaikaiseen jäätymiseen lämpösummien perusteella. Laskelmat kuvaavat roudan paksuutta nimenomaisesti lumettomilla alueilla, esimerkiksi teillä, joilta satanut lumi aurataan pois. Luonnossa lämpöä eristävän lumipeitteen alla routaa on ohuemmin kuin tällaisilla lumettomilla alueilla. Toisaalta luonnollisessa ympäristössä paikalliset erot korostuvat johtuen mm. maalajeista ja kasvillisuudesta. Roudan paksuudet laskettiin ensin perusjakson 1971–2000 ilmasto-oloissa talviaikaisten säähavaintotietoihin pohjautuvien lämpötilojen perusteella. Sen jälkeen laskelmat toistettiin kolmelle tulevalle ajanjaksolle (2010–2039, 2040–2069 ja 2070–2099) kohottamalla lämpötiloja ilmastonmuutosmallien ennustamalla tavalla. Laskelman pohjana käytettiin 19 ilmastomallin A1B-skenaarioajojen keskimäärin simuloimaa lämpötilan muutosta. Tulosten herkkyyden arvioimiseksi joitakin laskelmia tehtiin myös tätä selvästi heikompaa ja voimakkaampaa lämpenemisarviota käyttäen. A1B-skenaarion mukaisen lämpötilan nousun toteutuessa nykyisiä mallituloksia vastaavasti routakerros ohenee sadan vuoden aikana Pohjois-Suomessa 30–40 %, suuressa osassa maan keski- ja eteläosissa 50–70 %. Jo lähivuosikymmeninä roudan ennustetaan ohentuvan 10–30 %, saaristossa enemmän. Mikäli lämpeneminen toteutuisi voimakkaimman tarkastellun vaihtoehdon mukaisesti, roudan syvyys pienenisi tätäkin enemmän. Roudan paksuuden vuosienvälistä vaihtelua ja sen muuttumista tulevaisuudessa pyrittiin myös arvioimaan. Leutoina talvina routa ohenee enemmän kuin normaaleina tai ankarina pakkastalvina. Päivittäistä sään vaihtelua simuloineen säägeneraattorin tuottamassa aineistoissa esiintyi kuitenkin liian vähän hyvin alhaisia ja hyvin korkeita lämpötiloja. Siksi näitten lämpötilatietojen pohjalta laskettu roudan paksuuskin ilmeisesti vaihtelee liian vähän vuodesta toiseen. Kelirikkotilanteita voi esiintyä myös kesken routakauden, jos useamman päivän suojasää ja samanaikainen runsas vesisade pääsevät sulattamaan maata. Tällaiset routakauden aikana sattuvat säätilat näyttävätkin yleistyvän lähivuosikymmeninä. Vuosisadan loppua kohti ne sen sijaan maan eteläosissa jälleen vähenevät, koska routakausi lyhenee oleellisesti. Tulevia vuosikymmeniä koskevien ilmastonmuutosennusteiden ohella routaa ja kelirikon esiintymistä on periaatteessa mahdollista ennustaa myös lähiaikojen sääennusteita hyödyntäen. Pitkät, viikkojen tai kuukausien mittaiset sääennusteet eivät tosin ole ainakaan vielä erityisen luotettavia, mutta myös lyhyemmistä ennusteista voisi olla hyötyä mm. tienpitoa suunniteltaessa.