Dynamics of inflation expectations in the euro area

The present study examines empirically the inflation dynamics of the euro area. The focus of the analysis is on the role of expectations in the inflation process. In six articles we relax rationality assumption and proxy expectations directly using OECD forecasts or Consensus Economics survey data. In the first four articles we estimate alternative Phillips curve specifications and find evidence that inflation cannot instantaneously adjust to changes in expectations. A possible departure of expectations from rationality seems not to be powerful enough to totally explain the persistence of euro area inflation in the New Keynesian framework. When expectations are measured directly, the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve is outperformed by the hybrid Phillips curve with an additional lagged inflation term and the New Classical Phillips curve with a lagged expectations term. The results suggest that the euro area inflation process has become more forward-looking in the recent years of low and stable inflation. Moreover, in low inflation countries, the inflation dynamics have been more forward-looking already since the late 1970s. We find evidence of substantial heterogeneity of inflation dynamics across the euro area countries. Real time data analysis suggests that in the euro area real time information matters most in the expectations term in the Phillips curve and that the balance of expectations formation is more forward- than backward-looking. Vector autoregressive (VAR) models of actual inflation, inflation expectations and the output gap are estimated in the last two articles.The VAR analysis indicates that inflation expectations, which are relatively persistent, have a significant effect on output. However,expectations seem to react to changes in both output and actual inflation, especially in the medium term. Overall, this study suggests that expectations play a central role in inflation dynamics, which should be taken into account in conducting monetary policy.

Non-Gaussian Cosmological Perturbations from Hybrid Inflation and Preheating

This thesis consists of four research papers and an introduction providing some background. The structure in the universe is generally considered to originate from quantum fluctuations in the very early universe. The standard lore of cosmology states that the primordial perturbations are almost scale-invariant, adiabatic, and Gaussian. A snapshot of the structure from the time when the universe became transparent can be seen in the cosmic microwave background (CMB). For a long time mainly the power spectrum of the CMB temperature fluctuations has been used to obtain observational constraints, especially on deviations from scale-invariance and pure adiabacity. Non-Gaussian perturbations provide a novel and very promising way to test theoretical predictions. They probe beyond the power spectrum, or two point correlator, since non-Gaussianity involves higher order statistics. The thesis concentrates on the non-Gaussian perturbations arising in several situations involving two scalar fields, namely, hybrid inflation and various forms of preheating. First we go through some basic concepts -- such as the cosmological inflation, reheating and preheating, and the role of scalar fields during inflation -- which are necessary for the understanding of the research papers. We also review the standard linear cosmological perturbation theory. The second order perturbation theory formalism for two scalar fields is developed. We explain what is meant by non-Gaussian perturbations, and discuss some difficulties in parametrisation and observation. In particular, we concentrate on the nonlinearity parameter. The prospects of observing non-Gaussianity are briefly discussed. We apply the formalism and calculate the evolution of the second order curvature perturbation during hybrid inflation. We estimate the amount of non-Gaussianity in the model and find that there is a possibility for an observational effect. The non-Gaussianity arising in preheating is also studied. We find that the level produced by the simplest model of instant preheating is insignificant, whereas standard preheating with parametric resonance as well as tachyonic preheating are prone to easily saturate and even exceed the observational limits. We also mention other approaches to the study of primordial non-Gaussianities, which differ from the perturbation theory method chosen in the thesis work.

Price Inflation, Unemployment and Devaluations: The Finnish Experience of the 1990s

In this paper I provide some empirical answers to important questions such as the determinants of price inflation and the role of inflation polices. The results indicate that monetary policy is surprisingly impotent as a device for controlling inflation and there is little support that it influences the real variables. The low inflation after the Finnish devaluations in the beginning of 90s is foremost due to a previous imbalance in the labor markets and depressed aggregate demand.

Identification of TGFβ signaling, p53, and actin stress fibers as targets of LKB1 tumor suppressor activity

Tumorigenesis is a consequence of inactivating mutations of tumor suppressor genes and activating mutations of proto-oncogenes. Most of the mutations compromise cell autonomous and non-autonomous restrains on cell proliferation by modulating kinase signal transduction pathways. LKB1 is a tumor suppressor kinase whose sporadic mutations are frequently found in non-small cell lung cancer and cervical cancer. Germ-line mutations in the LKB1 gene lead to Peutz-Jeghers syndrome with an increased risk of cancer and development of benign gastrointestinal hamartomatous polyps consisting of hyperproliferative epithelia and prominent stromal stalk composed of smooth muscle cell lineage cells. The tumor suppressive function of LKB1 is possibly mediated by 14 identified LKB1 substrate kinases, whose activation is dependent on the LKB1 kinase complex. The aim of my thesis was to identify cell signaling pathways crucial for tumor suppression by LKB1. Re-introduction of LKB1 expression in the melanoma cell line G361 induces cell cycle arrest. Here we demonstrated that restoring the cytoplasmic LKB1 was sufficient to induce the cell cycle arrest in a tumor suppressor p53 dependent manner. To address the role of LKB1 in gastrointestinal tumor suppression, Lkb1 was deleted specifically in SMC lineage in vivo, which was sufficient to cause Peutz-Jeghers syndrome type polyposis. Studies on primary myofibroblasts lacking Lkb1 suggest that the regulation of TGFβ signaling, actin stress fibers and smooth muscle cell lineage differentiation are candidate mechanisms for tumor suppression by LKB1 in the gastrointestinal stroma. Further studies with LKB1 substrate kinase NUAK2 in HeLa cells indicate that NUAK2 is part of a positive feedback loop by which NUAK2 expression promotes actin stress fiber formation and, reciprocally the induction of actin stress fibers promote NUAK2 expression. Findings in this thesis suggest that p53 and TGFβ signaling pathways are potential mediators of tumor suppression by LKB1. An indication of NUAK2 in the promotion of actin stress fibers suggests that NUAK2 is one possible mediator of LKB1 dependent TGFβ signaling and smooth muscle cell lineage differentiation.

Cyclin dependent protein kinases as drug targets – potential in cardiovascular diseases

Complications of atherosclerosis such as myocardial infarction and stroke are the primary cause of death in Western societies. The development of atherosclerotic lesions is a complex process, including endothelial cell dysfunction, inflammation, extracellular matrix alteration and vascular smooth muscle cell (VSMC) proliferation and migration. Various cell cycle regulatory proteins control VSMC proliferation. Protein kinases called cyclin dependent kinases (CDKs) play a major role in regulation of cell cycle progression. At specific phases of the cell cycle, CDKs pair with cyclins to become catalytically active and phosphorylate numerous substrates contributing to cell cycle progression. CDKs are also regulated by cyclin dependent kinase inhibitors, activating and inhibitory phosphorylation, proteolysis and transcription factors. This tight regulation of cell cycle is essential; thus its deregulation is connected to the development of cancer and other proliferative disorders such as atherosclerosis and restenosis as well as neurodegenerative diseases. Proteins of the cell cycle provide potential and attractive targets for drug development. Consequently, various low molecular weight CDK inhibitors have been identified and are in clinical development. Tylophorine is a phenanthroindolizidine alkaloid, which has been shown to inhibit the growth of several human cancer cell lines. It was used in Ayurvedic medicine to treat inflammatory disorders. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of tylophorine on human umbilical vein smooth muscle cell (HUVSMC) proliferation, cell cycle progression and the expression of various cell cycle regulatory proteins in order to confirm the findings made with tylophorine in rat cells. We used several methods to determine our hypothesis, including cell proliferation assay, western blot and flow cytometric cell cycle distribution analysis. We demonstrated by cell proliferation assay that tylophorine inhibits HUVSMC proliferation dose-dependently with an IC50 value of 164 nM ± 50. Western blot analysis was used to determine the effect of tylophorine on expression of cell cycle regulatory proteins. Tylophorine downregulates cyclin D1 and p21 expression levels. The results of tylophorine’s effect on phosphorylation sites of p53 were not consistent. More sensitive methods are required in order to completely determine this effect. We used flow cytometric cell cycle analysis to investigate whether tylophorine interferes with cell cycle progression and arrests cells in a specific cell cycle phase. Tylophorine was shown to induce the accumulation of asynchronized HUVSMCs in S phase. Tylophorine has a significant effect on cell cycle, but its role as cell cycle regulator in treatment of vascular proliferative diseases and cancer requires more experiments in vitro and in vivo.