Modeling ecological and evolutionary processes in spatially structured populations

Many species inhabit fragmented landscapes, resulting either from anthropogenic or from natural processes. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured populations are affected by a complex interplay between endogenous and exogenous factors. The metapopulation approach, simplifying the landscape to a discrete set of patches of breeding habitat surrounded by unsuitable matrix, has become a widely applied paradigm for the study of species inhabiting highly fragmented landscapes. In this thesis, I focus on the construction of biologically realistic models and their parameterization with empirical data, with the general objective of understanding how the interactions between individuals and their spatially structured environment affect ecological and evolutionary processes in fragmented landscapes. I study two hierarchically structured model systems, which are the Glanville fritillary butterfly in the Åland Islands, and a system of two interacting aphid species in the Tvärminne archipelago, both being located in South-Western Finland. The interesting and challenging feature of both study systems is that the population dynamics occur over multiple spatial scales that are linked by various processes. My main emphasis is in the development of mathematical and statistical methodologies. For the Glanville fritillary case study, I first build a Bayesian framework for the estimation of death rates and capture probabilities from mark-recapture data, with the novelty of accounting for variation among individuals in capture probabilities and survival. I then characterize the dispersal phase of the butterflies by deriving a mathematical approximation of a diffusion-based movement model applied to a network of patches. I use the movement model as a building block to construct an individual-based evolutionary model for the Glanville fritillary butterfly metapopulation. I parameterize the evolutionary model using a pattern-oriented approach, and use it to study how the landscape structure affects the evolution of dispersal. For the aphid case study, I develop a Bayesian model of hierarchical multi-scale metapopulation dynamics, where the observed extinction and colonization rates are decomposed into intrinsic rates operating specifically at each spatial scale. In summary, I show how analytical approaches, hierarchical Bayesian methods and individual-based simulations can be used individually or in combination to tackle complex problems from many different viewpoints. In particular, hierarchical Bayesian methods provide a useful tool for decomposing ecological complexity into more tractable components.

Modeling Nonlinearities and Asymmetries in Asset Pricing

Financial time series tend to behave in a manner that is not directly drawn from a normal distribution. Asymmetries and nonlinearities are usually seen and these characteristics need to be taken into account. To make forecasts and predictions of future return and risk is rather complicated. The existing models for predicting risk are of help to a certain degree, but the complexity in financial time series data makes it difficult. The introduction of nonlinearities and asymmetries for the purpose of better models and forecasts regarding both mean and variance is supported by the essays in this dissertation. Linear and nonlinear models are consequently introduced in this dissertation. The advantages of nonlinear models are that they can take into account asymmetries. Asymmetric patterns usually mean that large negative returns appear more often than positive returns of the same magnitude. This goes hand in hand with the fact that negative returns are associated with higher risk than in the case where positive returns of the same magnitude are observed. The reason why these models are of high importance lies in the ability to make the best possible estimations and predictions of future returns and for predicting risk.

Modeling Efficient Classification as a Process of Confidence Assessment and Delegation

In visual object detection and recognition, classifiers have two interesting characteristics: accuracy and speed. Accuracy depends on the complexity of the image features and classifier decision surfaces. Speed depends on the hardware and the computational effort required to use the features and decision surfaces. When attempts to increase accuracy lead to increases in complexity and effort, it is necessary to ask how much are we willing to pay for increased accuracy. For example, if increased computational effort implies quickly diminishing returns in accuracy, then those designing inexpensive surveillance applications cannot aim for maximum accuracy at any cost. It becomes necessary to find trade-offs between accuracy and effort. We study efficient classification of images depicting real-world objects and scenes. Classification is efficient when a classifier can be controlled so that the desired trade-off between accuracy and effort (speed) is achieved and unnecessary computations are avoided on a per input basis. A framework is proposed for understanding and modeling efficient classification of images. Classification is modeled as a tree-like process. In designing the framework, it is important to recognize what is essential and to avoid structures that are narrow in applicability. Earlier frameworks are lacking in this regard. The overall contribution is two-fold. First, the framework is presented, subjected to experiments, and shown to be satisfactory. Second, certain unconventional approaches are experimented with. This allows the separation of the essential from the conventional. To determine if the framework is satisfactory, three categories of questions are identified: trade-off optimization, classifier tree organization, and rules for delegation and confidence modeling. Questions and problems related to each category are addressed and empirical results are presented. For example, related to trade-off optimization, we address the problem of computational bottlenecks that limit the range of trade-offs. We also ask if accuracy versus effort trade-offs can be controlled after training. For another example, regarding classifier tree organization, we first consider the task of organizing a tree in a problem-specific manner. We then ask if problem-specific organization is necessary.

Nitrogen dynamics and nitrogen use efficiency of spring cereals under Finnish growing conditions

Nitrogen (N) is one of the main inputs in cereal cultivation and as more than half of the arable land in Finland is used for cereal production, N has contributed substantially to agricultural pollution through fertilizer leaching and runoff. Based on this global phenomenon, the European Community has launched several directives to reduce agricultural emissions to the environment. Trough such measures, and by using economic incentives, it is expected that northern European agricultural practices will, in the future, include reduced N fertilizer application rates. Reduced use of N fertilizer is likely to decrease both production costs and pollution, but could also result in reduced yields and quality if crops experience temporary N deficiency. Therefore, more efficient N use in cereal production, to minimize pollution risks and maximize farmer income, represents a current challenge for agronomic research in the northern growing areas. The main objective of this study was to determine the differences in nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) among spring cereals grown in Finland. Additional aims were to characterize the multiple roles of NUE by analysing the extent of variation in NUE and its component traits among different cultivars, and to understand how other physiological traits, especially radiation use efficiency (RUE) and light interception, affect and interact with the main components of NUE and contribute to differences among cultivars. This study included cultivars of barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), oat (Avena sativa L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Field experiments were conducted between 2001 and 2004 at Jokioinen, in Finland. To determine differences in NUE among cultivars and gauge the achievements of plant breeding in NUE, 17-18 cultivars of each of the three cereal species released between 1909 and 2002 were studied. Responses to nitrogen of landraces, old cultivars and modern cultivars of each cereal species were evaluated under two N regimes (0 and 90 kg N ha-1). Results of the study revealed that modern wheat, oat and barley cultivars had similar NUE values under Finnish growing conditions and only results from a wider range of cultivars indicated that wheat cultivars could have lower NUE than the other species. There was a clear relationship between nitrogen uptake efficiency (UPE) and NUE in all species whereas nitrogen utilization efficiency (UTE) had a strong positive relationship with NUE only for oat. UTE was clearly lower in wheat than in other species. Other traits related to N translocation indicated that wheat also had a lower harvest index, nitrogen harvest index and nitrogen remobilisation efficiency and therefore its N translocation efficiency was confirmed to be very low. On the basis of these results there appears to be potential and also a need for improvement in NUE. These results may help understand the underlying physiological differences in NUE and could help to identify alternative production options, such as the different roles that species can play in crop rotations designed to meet the demands of modern agricultural practices.

Diffusive and ship-mediated spread of dinoflagellates in the Baltic Sea with Prorocentrum minimum as a special case

In this thesis the role played by expansive and introduced species in the phytoplankton ecology of the Baltic Sea was investigated. The aims were threefold. First, the studies investigated the resting stages of dinoflagellates, which were transported into the Baltic Sea via shipping and were able to germinate under the ambient, nutrient-rich, brackish water conditions. The studies also estimated which factors favoured the occurrence and spread of P. minimum in the Baltic Sea and discussed the identification of this morphologically variable species. In addition, the classification of phytoplankton species recently observed in the Baltic Sea was discussed. Incubation of sediments from four Finnish ports and 10 ships ballast tanks revealed that the sediments act as sources of living dinoflagellates and other phytoplankton. Dinoflagellates germinated from all ports detected and from 90% of ballast tanks. The concentrations of cells germinating from ballast tank sediments were mostly low compared with the acceptable cell concentrations set by the International Maritime Organization s (IMO s) International Convention for the Control and Management of Ships Ballast Water and Sediments. However, the IMO allows such high concentrations of small cells in the discharged ballast water that the total number of cells in large ballast water tanks can be very high. Prorocentrum minimum occurred in the Baltic Sea annually but with no obvious trend in the 10-year timespan from 1993 to 2002. The species occurred under wide ranges of temperatures and salinities and the abundance of the species was positively related especially to the presence of organic nitrogen and phosphorus. This indicated that the species was favoured by increased organic nutrient loading and runoff from land and rivers. The cell shape of P. minimum varied from triangular to oval-round, but morphological fine details indicated that only one morphospecies was present. P. minimum also is, according to present knowledge, the only potentially harmful phytoplankton species that has recently expanded widely into new areas of the Baltic Sea.

Export of organic matter, sulphate and base cations from boreal headwater catchments downstream to the coast: impacts of land use and climate

The terrestrial export of dissolved organic matter (DOM) is associated with climate, vegetation and land use, and thus is under the influence of climatic variability and human interference with terrestrial ecosystems, their soils and hydrological cycles. The present study provides an assessment of spatial variation of DOM concentrations and export, and interactions between DOM, catchment characteristics, land use and climatic factors in boreal catchments. The influence of catchment characteristics, land use and climatic drivers on the concentrations and export of total organic carbon (TOC), total organic nitrogen (TON) and dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) was estimated using stream water quality, forest inventory and climatic data from 42 Finnish pristine forested headwater catchments, and water quality monitoring, GIS land use, forest inventory and climatic data from the 36 main Finnish rivers (and their sub-catchments) flowing to the Baltic Sea. Moreover, the export of DOM in relation to land use along a European climatic gradient was studied using river water quality and land use data from four European areas. Additionally, the role of organic and minerogenic acidity in controlling pH levels in Finnish rivers and pristine streams was studied by measuring organic anion, sulphate (SO4) and base cation (Ca, Mg, K and Na) concentrations. In all study catchments, TOC was a major fraction of DOM, with much lower proportions of TON and DOP. Moreover, most of TOC and TON was in a dissolved form. The correlation between TOC and TON concentrations was strong and TOC concentrations explained 78% of the variation in TON concentrations in pristine headwater streams. In a subgroup of 20 headwater catchments with similar climatic conditions and low N deposition in eastern Finland, the proportion of peatlands in the catchment and the proportion of Norway spruce (Picea abies Karsten) of the tree stand had the strongest correlation with the TOC and TON concentrations and export. In Finnish river basins, TOC export increased with the increasing proportion of peatland in the catchment, whereas TON export increased with increasing extent of agricultural land. The highest DOP concentrations and export were recorded in river basins with a high extent of agricultural land and urban areas, reflecting the influence of human impact on DOP loads. However, the most important predictor for TOC, TON and DOP export in Finnish rivers was the proportion of upstream lakes in the catchment. The higher the upstream lake percentage, the lower the export indicating organic matter retention in lakes. Molar TOC:TON ratio decreased from headwater catchments covered by forests and peatlands to the large river basins with mixed land use, emphasising the effect of the land use gradient on the stoichiometry of rivers. This study also demonstrated that the land use of the catchments is related to both organic and minerogenic acidity in rivers and pristine headwater streams. Organic anion dominated in rivers and streams situated in northern Finland, reflecting the higher extent of peatlands in these areas, whereas SO4 dominated in southern Finland and on western coastal areas, where the extent of fertile areas, agricultural land, urban areas, acid sulphate soils, and sulphate deposition is highest. High TOC concentrations decreased pH values in the stream and river water, whereas no correlation between SO4 concentrations and pH was observed. This underlines the importance of organic acids in controlling pH levels in Finnish pristine headwater streams and main rivers. High SO4 concentrations were associated with high base cation concentrations and fertile areas, which buffered the effects of SO4 on pH.

Causation, counterfactuals and competitive advantage

Causation is still poorly understood in strategy research, and confusion prevails around key concepts such as competitive advantage. In this paper, we define epistemological conditions that help to dispel some of this confusion and to provide a basis for more developed approaches. In particular, we argue that a counterfactual approach – that builds on a systematic analysis of ‘what-if’ questions – can advance our understanding of key causal mechanisms in strategy research. We offer two concrete methodologies – counterfactual history and causal modeling – as useful solutions. We also show that these methodologies open up new avenues in research on competitive advantage. Counterfactual history can add to our understanding of the context-specific construction of resource-based competitive advantage and path dependence, and causal modeling can help to reconceptualize the relationships between resources and performance. In particular, resource properties can be regarded as mediating mechanisms in these causal relationships.

Recovery responses of acidified Finnish lakes under declining acid deposition

The present work provides a regional-scale assessment of the changes in acidifying deposition in Finland over the past 30 years and the current pattern in the recovery of acid-sensitive lakes from acidification in relation to changes in sulphate deposition. This information is needed for documenting the ecosystem benefits of costly emission reduction policies and further actions in air pollution policy. The development of sulphate deposition in Finland reflects that of European SO2 emissions. Before the 1990s, reductions in sulphur emissions in Europe had been relatively small and sulphate deposition showed no consistent trends. Due to emission reduction measures that were then taken, sulphate deposition started to clearly decline from the late 1980s. The bulk deposition of sulphate has declined 40-60% in most parts of the country during 1990-2003. The decline in sulphate deposition exceeded the decline of base cation deposition, which resulted in a decrease in acidity and acidifying potential of deposition over the 1990s. Nitrogen deposition also decreased since the late 1980s, but less than that of sulphate, and levelling off during the 1990s. Sulphate concentrations in all types of small lakes throughout Finland have declined from the early 1990s. The relative decrease in lake sulphate concentrations (average 40-50%) during 1990-2003 was rather similar to the decline in sulphate deposition, indicating a direct response to the reduction in deposition. There are presently no indications of elevated nitrate concentrations in forested headwater lakes. Base cation concentrations are still declining in many lakes, especially in south Finland, but to a lesser extent than sulphate allowing buffering capacity (alkalinity) to increase, being significant in 60% of the study lakes. Chemical recovery is resulting in biological recovery with populations of acid-sensitive fish species increasing. The recovery has been strongest in lakes in which sulphate has been the major acidifying agent, and recovery has been the strongest and most consistent in lakes in south Finland. The recovery of lakes in central Finland and north Finland is not as widespread and strong as observed in south. Many catchments, particularly in central Finland, have a high proportion of peatlands and therefore high TOC concentrations in lakes, and runoff-induced surges of organic acids have been an important confounding factor suppressing the recovery of pH and alkalinity in these lakes. Chemical recovery is progressing even in the most acidified lakes, but the buffering capacity of many lakes is still low and still sensitive to acidic input. Further reduction in sulphur emissions are needed for the alkalinity to increase in the acidified lakes. Increasing total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations are indicated in small forest lakes in Finland. The trends appear to be related to decreasing sulphate deposition and improved acid-base status of the soil, and the rise in TOC is integral to recovery from acidification. A new challenge is climate change with potential trends in temperature, precipitation and runoff, which are expected to affect future chemical and biological recovery from acidification. The potential impact on the mobilization and leaching of organic acids may become particularly important in Finnish conditions. Long-term environmental monitoring has evidently shown the success of international emission abatement strategies. The importance and value of integrated monitoring approach including physical, chemical and biological variables is clearly indicated, and continuous environmental monitoring is needed as a scientific basis for further actions in air pollution policy.

Phytoplankton ecology of subarctic lakes in Finnish Lapland

Climate is warming and it is especially seen in arctic areas, where the warming trend is expected to be greatest. Arctic freshwater ecosystems, which are a very characteristic feature of the arctic landscape, are especially sensitive to climate change. They could be used as early warning systems, but more information about the ecosystem functioning and responses are needed for proper interpretation of the observations. Phytoplankton species and assemblages could be especially suitable for climate-related studies, since they have short generation times and react rapidly to changes in the environment. In addition, phytoplankton provides a good tool for lake classifications, since different species have different requirements and tolerance ranges for various environmental factors. The use of biological indicators is especially useful in arctic areas, were many of the chemical factors commonly fall under the detection limit and therefore do not provide much information about the environment. This work brings new information about species distribution and dynamics of arctic freshwater phytoplankton in relation to environmental factors. The phytoplankton of lakes in Finnish Lapland and other European high-altitude or high-latitude areas were compared. Most lakes were oligotrophic and dominated by flagellated species belonging to chrysophytes, cryptophytes and dinoflagellates. In Finnish Lapland cryptophytes were of less importance, whereas desmids had high species richness in many of the lakes. In Pan-European scale, geographical and catchment-related factors were explaining most of the differences in species distributions between different districts, whereas lake water chemistry (especially conductivity, SiO2 and pH) was most important regionally. Seasonal and interannual variation of phytoplankton was studied in subarctic Lake Saanajärvi. Characteristic phytoplankton species in this oligotrophic, dimictic lake belonged mainly to chrysophytes and diatoms. The maximum phytoplankton biomass in Lake Saanajärvi occurs during autumn, while spring biomass is very low. During years with heavy snow cover the lake suffers from pH drop caused by melt waters, but the effects of this acid pulse are restricted to surface layers and last for a relatively short period. In addition to some chemical parameters (mainly Ca and nutrients), length of the mixing cycle and physical factors such as lake water temperature and thermal stability of water column had major impact on phytoplankton dynamics. During a year with long and strong thermal stability, the phytoplankton community developed towards an equilibrium state, with heavy dominance of only a few taxa for a longer period of time. During a year with higher windiness and less thermal stability, the species composition was more diverse and species with different functional strategies were able to occur simultaneously. The results of this work indicate that although arctic lakes in general share many common features concerning their catchment and water chemistry, large differences in biological features can be found even in a relatively small area. Most likely the lakes with very different algal flora do not respond in a similar way to differences in the environmental factors, and more information about specific arctic lake types is needed. The results also show considerable year to year differences in phytoplankton species distribution and dynamics, and these changes are most likely linked to climatic factors.