Silvicultural decisions based on simulation-optimization systems

Forest management is facing new challenges under climate change. By adjusting thinning regimes, conventional forest management can be adapted to various objectives of utilization of forest resources, such as wood quality, forest bioenergy, and carbon sequestration. This thesis aims to develop and apply a simulation-optimization system as a tool for an interdisciplinary understanding of the interactions between wood science, forest ecology, and forest economics. In this thesis, the OptiFor software was developed for forest resources management. The OptiFor simulation-optimization system integrated the process-based growth model PipeQual, wood quality models, biomass production and carbon emission models, as well as energy wood and commercial logging models into a single optimization model. Osyczka s direct and random search algorithm was employed to identify optimal values for a set of decision variables. The numerical studies in this thesis broadened our current knowledge and understanding of the relationships between wood science, forest ecology, and forest economics. The results for timber production show that optimal thinning regimes depend on site quality and initial stand characteristics. Taking wood properties into account, our results show that increasing the intensity of thinning resulted in lower wood density and shorter fibers. The addition of nutrients accelerated volume growth, but lowered wood quality for Norway spruce. Integrating energy wood harvesting into conventional forest management showed that conventional forest management without energy wood harvesting was still superior in sparse stands of Scots pine. Energy wood from pre-commercial thinning turned out to be optimal for dense stands. When carbon balance is taken into account, our results show that changing carbon assessment methods leads to very different optimal thinning regimes and average carbon stocks. Raising the carbon price resulted in longer rotations and a higher mean annual increment, as well as a significantly higher average carbon stock over the rotation.

Design and testing of stand-specific bucking instructions for use on modern cut-to-length harvesters

This study addresses three important issues in tree bucking optimization in the context of cut-to-length harvesting. (1) Would the fit between the log demand and log output distributions be better if the price and/or demand matrices controlling the bucking decisions on modern cut-to-length harvesters were adjusted to the unique conditions of each individual stand? (2) In what ways can we generate stand and product specific price and demand matrices? (3) What alternatives do we have to measure the fit between the log demand and log output distributions, and what would be an ideal goodness-of-fit measure? Three iterative search systems were developed for seeking stand-specific price and demand matrix sets: (1) A fuzzy logic control system for calibrating the price matrix of one log product for one stand at a time (the stand-level one-product approach); (2) a genetic algorithm system for adjusting the price matrices of one log product in parallel for several stands (the forest-level one-product approach); and (3) a genetic algorithm system for dividing the overall demand matrix of each of the several log products into stand-specific sub-demands simultaneously for several stands and products (the forest-level multi-product approach). The stem material used for testing the performance of the stand-specific price and demand matrices against that of the reference matrices was comprised of 9 155 Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) sawlog stems gathered by harvesters from 15 mature spruce-dominated stands in southern Finland. The reference price and demand matrices were either direct copies or slightly modified versions of those used by two Finnish sawmilling companies. Two types of stand-specific bucking matrices were compiled for each log product. One was from the harvester-collected stem profiles and the other was from the pre-harvest inventory data. Four goodness-of-fit measures were analyzed for their appropriateness in determining the similarity between the log demand and log output distributions: (1) the apportionment degree (index), (2) the chi-square statistic, (3) Laspeyres quantity index, and (4) the price-weighted apportionment degree. The study confirmed that any improvement in the fit between the log demand and log output distributions can only be realized at the expense of log volumes produced. Stand-level pre-control of price matrices was found to be advantageous, provided the control is done with perfect stem data. Forest-level pre-control of price matrices resulted in no improvement in the cumulative apportionment degree. Cutting stands under the control of stand-specific demand matrices yielded a better total fit between the demand and output matrices at the forest level than was obtained by cutting each stand with non-stand-specific reference matrices. The theoretical and experimental analyses suggest that none of the three alternative goodness-of-fit measures clearly outperforms the traditional apportionment degree measure. Keywords: harvesting, tree bucking optimization, simulation, fuzzy control, genetic algorithms, goodness-of-fit

Influence of harvesting strategy on nutrient supply and production of dairy cows consuming diets based on grass and red clover silage

The main objective of this thesis was to elucidate the effects of regrowth grass silage and red clover silage on nutrient supply and milk production of dairy cows as compared with primary growth grass silages. In the first experiment (publication I), two primary growth and four regrowth grass silages were harvested at two stages of growth. These six silages were fed to 24 lactating dairy cows with two levels of concentrate allowance. Silage intake and energy corrected milk yield (ECM) responses, and the range in these response variables between the diets, were smaller when regrowth silages rather than primary growth silages were fed. Milk production of dairy cows reflected the intake of metabolizable energy (ME), and no differences in the ME utilization were found between the diets based on silages harvested from primary growth and regrowth. The ECM response to increased concentrate allowance was, on average, greater when regrowth rather than primary growth silages were fed. In the second experiment (publication II), two silages from primary growth and two from regrowth used in I were fed to rumen cannulated lactating dairy cows. Cows consumed less feed dry matter (DM), energy and protein, and produced less milk, when fed diets based on regrowth silages rather than primary growth silages. Lower milk production responses of regrowth grass silage diets were mainly due to the lower silage DM intake, and could not be accounted for by differences in energy or protein utilization. Regrowth grass silage intake was not limited due to neutral detergent fibre (NDF) digestion or rumen fill or passage kinetics. However, lower intake may be at least partly attributable to plant diseases such as leaf spot infections, dead deteriorating material or abundance of weeds, which are all higher in regrowth compared with primary growth, and increase with advancing regrowth. In the third experiment (publications III and IV), red clover silages and grass silages harvested at two stages of growth, and a mixed diet of red clover and grass silages, were fed to five rumen cannulated lactating dairy cows. In spite of the lower average ME intake for red clover diets, the ECM production remained unchanged suggesting more efficient utilisation of ME for red clover diets compared with grass diets. Intake of N, and omasal canal flows of total non-ammonia N (NAN), microbial and non-microbial NAN were higher for red clover than for grass silage diets, but were not affected by forage maturity. Delaying the harvest tended to decrease DM intake of grass silage and increase that of red clover silage. The digestion rate of potentially digestible NDF was faster for red clover diets than for grass silage diets. Delaying the harvest decreased the digestion rate for grass but increased it for red clover silage diets. The low intake of early-cut red clover silage could not be explained by silage digestibility, fermentation quality, or rumen fill but was most likely related to the nutritionally suboptimal diet composition because inclusion of moderate quality grass silage in mixed diet increased silage DM intake. Despite the higher total amino acid supply of cows fed red clover versus grass silage diets, further milk production responses on red clover diets were possibly compromised by an inadequate supply of methionine as evidenced by lower methionine concentration in the amino acid profile of omasal digesta and plasma. Increasing the maturity of ensiled red clover does not seem to affect silage DM intake as consistently as that of grasses. The efficiency of N utilization for milk protein synthesis was lower for red clover diets than for grass diets. It was negatively related to diet crude protein concentration similarly to grass silage diets.

Essays on the Bioeconomics of the Northern Baltic Fisheries

World marine fisheries suffer from economic and biological overfishing: too many vessels are harvesting too few fish stocks. Fisheries economics has explained the causes of overfishing and provided a theoretical background for management systems capable of solving the problem. Yet only a few examples of fisheries managed by the principles of the bioeconomic theory exist. With the aim of bridging the gap between the actual fish stock assessment models used to provide management advice and economic optimisation models, the thesis explores economically sound harvesting from national and international perspectives. Using data calibrated for the Baltic salmon and herring stocks, optimal harvesting policies are outlined using numerical methods. First, the thesis focuses on the socially optimal harvest of a single salmon stock by commercial and recreational fisheries. The results obtained using dynamic programming show that the optimal fishery configuration would be to close down three out of the five studied fisheries. The result is robust to stock size fluctuations. Compared to a base case situation, the optimal fleet structure would yield a slight decrease in the commercial catch, but a recreational catch that is nearly seven times higher. As a result, the expected economic net benefits from the fishery would increase nearly 60%, and the expected number of juvenile salmon (smolt) would increase by 30%. Second, the thesis explores the management of multiple salmon stocks in an international framework. Non-cooperative and cooperative game theory are used to demonstrate different "what if" scenarios. The results of the four player game suggest that, despite the commonly agreed fishing quota, the behaviour of the countries has been closer to non-cooperation than cooperation. Cooperation would more than double the net benefits from the fishery compared to a past fisheries policy. Side payments, however, are a prerequisite for a cooperative solution. Third, the thesis applies coalitional games in the partition function form to study whether the cooperative solution would be stable despite the potential presence of positive externalities. The results show that the cooperation of two out of four studied countries can be stable. Compared to a past fisheries policy, a stable coalition structure would provide substantial economic benefits. Nevertheless, the status of the salmon stocks would not improve significantly. Fourth, the thesis studies the prerequisites for and potential consequences of the implementation of an individual transferable quota (ITQ) system in the Finnish herring fishery. Simulation results suggest that ITQs would result in a decrease in the number of fishing vessels, but enables positive profits to overlap with a higher stock size. The empirical findings of the thesis affirm that the profitability of the studied fisheries could be improved. The evidence, however, indicates that incentives for free riding exist, and thus the most preferable outcome both in economic and biological terms is elusive.

Computer simulation of H and He effects in fusion reactor materials

Fusion power is an appealing source of clean and abundant energy. The radiation resistance of reactor materials is one of the greatest obstacles on the path towards commercial fusion power. These materials are subject to a harsh radiation environment, and cannot fail mechanically or contaminate the fusion plasma. Moreover, for a power plant to be economically viable, the reactor materials must withstand long operation times, with little maintenance. The fusion reactor materials will contain hydrogen and helium, due to deposition from the plasma and nuclear reactions because of energetic neutron irradiation. The first wall divertor materials, carbon and tungsten in existing and planned test reactors, will be subject to intense bombardment of low energy deuterium and helium, which erodes and modifies the surface. All reactor materials, including the structural steel, will suffer irradiation of high energy neutrons, causing displacement cascade damage. Molecular dynamics simulation is a valuable tool for studying irradiation phenomena, such as surface bombardment and the onset of primary damage due to displacement cascades. The governing mechanisms are on the atomic level, and hence not easily studied experimentally. In order to model materials, interatomic potentials are needed to describe the interaction between the atoms. In this thesis, new interatomic potentials were developed for the tungsten-carbon-hydrogen system and for iron-helium and chromium-helium. Thus, the study of previously inaccessible systems was made possible, in particular the effect of H and He on radiation damage. The potentials were based on experimental and ab initio data from the literature, as well as density-functional theory calculations performed in this work. As a model for ferritic steel, iron-chromium with 10% Cr was studied. The difference between Fe and FeCr was shown to be negligible for threshold displacement energies. The properties of small He and He-vacancy clusters in Fe and FeCr were also investigated. The clusters were found to be more mobile and dissociate more rapidly than previously assumed, and the effect of Cr was small. The primary damage formed by displacement cascades was found to be heavily influenced by the presence of He, both in FeCr and W. Many important issues with fusion reactor materials remain poorly understood, and will require a huge effort by the international community. The development of potential models for new materials and the simulations performed in this thesis reveal many interesting features, but also serve as a platform for further studies.

The watershed simulation and forecasting system in the National Board of and the Environment

Yhteenveto: Vesistömalleihin perustuva vesistöjen seuranta- ja ennustejärjestelmä vesi- ja ympäristöhallinnossa