Fertility in Namibia : Changes in fertility levels in North-Central Namibia 1960-2001, including an assessment of the impact of HIV

The aim of this study was to estimate the development of fertility in North-Central Namibia, former Ovamboland, from 1960 to 2001. Special attention was given to the onset of fertility decline and to the impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility. An additional aim was to introduce parish registers as a source of data for fertility research in Africa. Data used consisted of parish registers from Evangelical Lutheran congregations, the 1991 and 2001 Population and Housing Censuses, the 1992 and 2000 Namibia Demographic and Health Surveys, and the HIV sentinel surveillances of 1992-2004. Both period and cohort fertility were analysed. The P/F ratio method was used when analysing census data. The impact of HIV infection on fertility was estimated indirectly by comparing the fertility histories of women who died at an age of less than 50 years with the fertility of other women. The impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility was assessed both among infected women and in the general population. Fertility in the study population began to decline in 1980. The decline was rapid during the 1980s, levelled off in the early 1990s at the end of war of independence and then continued to decline until the end of the study period. According to parish registers, total fertility was 6.4 in the 1960s and 6.5 in the 1970s, and declined to 5.1 in the 1980s and 4.2 in the 1990s. Adjustment of these total fertility rates to correspond to levels of fertility based on data from the 1991 and 2001 censuses resulted in total fertility declining from 7.6 in 1960-79 to 6.0 in 1980-89, and to 4.9 in 1990-99. The decline was associated with increased age at first marriage, declining marital fertility and increasing premarital fertility. Fertility among adolescents increased, whereas the fertility of women in all other age groups declined. During the 1980s, the war of independence contributed to declining fertility through spousal separation and delayed marriages. Contraception has been employed in the study region since the 1980s, but in the early 1990s, use of contraceptives was still so limited that fertility was higher in North-Central Namibia than in other regions of the country. In the 1990s, fertility decline was largely a result of the increased prevalence of contraception. HIV prevalence among pregnant women increased from 4% in 1992 to 25% in 2001. In 2001, total fertility among HIV-infected women (3.7) was lower than that among other women (4.8), resulting in total fertility of 4.4 among the general population in 2001. The HIV epidemic explained more than a quarter of the decline in total fertility at population level during most of the 1990s. The HIV epidemic also reduced the number of children born by reducing the number of potential mothers. In the future, HIV will have an extensive influence on both the size and age structure of the Namibian population. Although HIV influences demographic development through both fertility and mortality, the effect through changes in fertility will be smaller than the effect through mortality. In the study region, as in some other regions of southern Africa, a new type of demographic transition is under way, one in which population growth stagnates or even reverses because of the combined effects of declining fertility and increasing mortality, both of which are consequences of the HIV pandemic.

Obstetric and gynaecological aspects of HIV infection

The purpose of the present study was to examine the outcome of pregnancies among HIV-infected women in Helsinki, use of the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system (LNG-IUS) among HIV-infected women and the prevalence and risk factors of cytological and histologically proven cervical lesions in this population. Between 1993 and 2003 a total of 45 HIV-infected women delivered 52 singleton infants. HIV infection was diagnosed during pregnancy in 40% of the mothers. Seventeen of the mothers received antiretroviral (ARV) medication prior to pregnancy and in 34 cases, the medication was started during pregnancy. A good virological response (i.e. HIV RNA load <1000/mL during the last trimester) to ARV medication was achieved in 36/40 (90%) of the patients in whom HI viral load measurements were performed. Of the infants, 92% were born at term, and their mean (±SD) birth weight was 3350±395 g. The Caesarean section rate was low, 25%. All newborns received ARV medication and none of the infants born to mothers with pre-delivery diagnosis of maternal HIV infection were infected. The safety and advantages of the LNG-IUS were studied prospectively (n=12) and retrospectively (n=6). The LNG-IUS was well tolerated and no cases of PID or pregnancy were noted. Menstrual bleeding was reduced significantly during use of the LNG-IUS; this was associated with a slight increase in haemoglobin levels. Serum oestradiol concentrations remained in the follicular range in all subjects. The key finding was that genital shedding of HIV RNA did not change after the insertion of the LNG-IUS. The mean annual prevalence of low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (SIL) was 15% and that of high-grade SIL was 5% among 108 systematically followed HIV-infected women during 1989 2003. A reduced CD4 lymphocyte count was associated with an increased prevalence of SIL, whereas duration of HIV infection, use of ARV medication and HI viral load were not. The cumulative risk of any type of SIL was 17% after one year and 48% after five years among patients with initially normal Pap smears. The risk of developing SIL was associated with young age and a high initial HI viral load. During the follow-up 51 subjects (n=153) displayed cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), (16% CIN1 and 18% CIN 2-3). Only one case of cancer of the uterine cervix was detected. Pap smears were reliable in screening for CIN. Both nulliparity (p<0.01) and bacterial vaginosis (p<0.04) emerged as significant risk factors of CIN. In conclusion, a combination of universal antenatal screening and multidisciplinary management allows individualized treatment and prevents vertical transmission of HIV. Use of the LNG-IUS is safe among HIV-infected women and cervicovaginal shedding of HIV RNA is not affected by use of the LNG-IUS. The risk of cervical pre-malignant lesions is high among HIV-infected women despite systematic follow-up.

Lactobacillus bacteremia, with special focus on the safety of probiotic Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG

Lactobacilli are gram positive rods, which belong to normal oropharyngeal, gastrointestinal and urogenital flora. They are widely used in food industry and as food additives. Although their virulence is presumed to be very low, opportunistic bacteremic infections, especially in immunocompromised hosts, have been detected. In the present study, the possible effects of increasing probiotic use of Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG (LGG) on the occurrence of bacteremia due to lactobacilli was evaluated on population level. In Finland, 90 Lactobacillus bacteremia cases were reported to the National Infectious Disease Register maintained by National Public Health Institute, during 1995-2000. Their proportion of all bacteremia cases was on average 0.24%, corresponding to 0.3 cases/100 000 inhabitants annually. In the Helsinki University Central Hospital district the corresponding proportion of all bacteremia cases was observed during 1990-2000. Despite LGG intake increased six folded no increasing trend in the occurrence of lactobacilli bacteremia was seen. A total of 85 Lactobacillus sp. blood isolates collected from different human bacteremic cases were characterised and compared with the commercial probiotic LGG strain. In species characterisation 46 L. rhamnosus strains, 12 L. fermentum and L. casei strains each, three each of L. gasseri, L. salivarius and L. jensenii species, two L. curvatus, and one each of L. plantarum, L. sakei, L. zeae and L. reuteri species were detected. Nearly half of the L. rhamnosus findings turned out to be indistinguishable from the probiotic LGG strain. Common predisposing factors to Lactobacillus bacteremia were immunosuppression, prior prolonged hospitalisation and prior surgical interventions. Severe or fatal comorbidities were found in 82% of the patients. Mortality at one month was 26% and severe underlying diseases were a significant predictor of death (OR 15.8). Antimicrobial susceptibility of Lactobacillus strains was species dependent. The Lactobacillus isolates were generally susceptible to imipenem, piperacillin-tazobactam, clindamycin and erythromycin, whereas all other than L. gasseri and L. jensenii species were not at all susceptible to vancomycin. The susceptibility to cephalosporin varied greatly even within species why they might not be recommended for treatment of Lactobacillus infections. The effect and safety of probiotic LGG preparation in amelioration of gastric symptoms and diarrhea in HIV-infected patients was evaluated. No significant differences in gastrointestinal symptoms or diarrhoea in LGG treated patients compared to placebo could be found. LGG was well tolerated with no adverse effects including bacteremic outbreaks could be observed. The use of probiotic LGG can be regarded safe in this immunocompromised patient group.

HIV outbreak among injecting drug users in Finland

An HIV outbreak among Finnish injecting drug users (IDUs) occurred in 1998. By the end of 2005, 282 IDUs were in-fected, most of them by recombinant virus CRF01_AE of HIV. After a rapid spread, the outbreak subsided, and the prevalence of HIV among IDUs remained low (<2%). The purpose of the study was to describe the outbreak in order to recognise factors that have influenced the spread and restriction of the outbreak, and thus to find tools for HIV preven-tion. Data on Finnish IDUs newly diagnosed HIV-positive between 1998 and 2005 was collected through interviews and patient documents. Study I compared markers of disease progression between 93 Finnish IDUs and 63 Dutch IDUs. In study II, geographical spread of the HIV outbreak was examined and compared with the spatial distribution of employed males. In study III, risk behaviour data from interviews of 89 HIV-positive and 207 HIV-negative IDUs was linked, and prevalence and risk factors for unprotected sex were evaluated. In study IV, data on 238 newly diagnosed IDUs was combined with data on 675 sexually transmitted HIV cases, and risk factors for late HIV diagnosis (CD4 cell count <200/µL, or AIDS at HIV diagnosis) were analysed. Finnish IDUs infected with CRF01_AE exhibited higher viral loads than did Amsterdam IDUs infected with subtype B, but there was no difference in CD4 development. The Finnish IDU outbreak spread and was restricted socially in a marginalised IDU population and geographically in areas characterised by low proportions of employed males. Up to 40% of the cases in the two clusters outside the city centre had no contact with the centre, where needle exchange services were available since 1997. Up to 63% of HIV-positive and 80% of HIV-negative sexually active IDUs reported inconsistent condom use, which was associated with steady relationships and recent inpatient addiction care. Com-pared to other transmission groups, HIV-positive IDUs were diagnosed earlier in their infection. The proportion of late diagnosed HIV cases in all transmission groups was 23%, but was only 6% among IDUs diagnosed during the first four years of the epidemic. The high viral load in early HIV infection may have contributed to the rapid spread of recombinant virus in the Finnish outbreak. The outbreak was restricted to a marginalised IDU population, and limited spatially to local pockets of pov-erty. To prevent HIV among IDUs, these pockets should be recognised and reached early through outreach work and the distribution of needle exchange and other prevention activities. To prevent the sexual transmission of HIV among IDUs, prevention programmes should be combined with addiction care services and targeted at every IDU. The early detection of the outbreak and early implementation of needle exchange programmes likely played a crucial role in re-versing the IDU outbreak.