Do Measurement Errors in GDP Announcements Cause Output Fluctuations?

This thesis studies empirically whether measurement errors in aggregate production statistics affect sentiment and future output. Initial announcements of aggregate production are subject to measurement error, because many of the data required to compile the statistics are produced with a lag. This measurement error can be gauged as the difference between the latest revised statistic and its initial announcement. Assuming aggregate production statistics help forecast future aggregate production, these measurement errors are expected to affect macroeconomic forecasts. Assuming agents’ macroeconomic forecasts affect their production choices, these measurement errors should affect future output through sentiment. This thesis is primarily empirical, so the theoretical basis, strategic complementarity, is discussed quite briefly. However, it is a model in which higher aggregate production increases each agent’s incentive to produce. In this circumstance a statistical announcement which suggests aggregate production is high would increase each agent’s incentive to produce, thus resulting in higher aggregate production. In this way the existence of strategic complementarity provides the theoretical basis for output fluctuations caused by measurement mistakes in aggregate production statistics. Previous empirical studies suggest that measurement errors in gross national product affect future aggregate production in the United States. Additionally it has been demonstrated that measurement errors in the Index of Leading Indicators affect forecasts by professional economists as well as future industrial production in the United States. This thesis aims to verify the applicability of these findings to other countries, as well as study the link between measurement errors in gross domestic product and sentiment. This thesis explores the relationship between measurement errors in gross domestic production and sentiment and future output. Professional forecasts and consumer sentiment in the United States and Finland, as well as producer sentiment in Finland, are used as the measures of sentiment. Using statistical techniques it is found that measurement errors in gross domestic product affect forecasts and producer sentiment. The effect on consumer sentiment is ambiguous. The relationship between measurement errors and future output is explored using data from Finland, United States, United Kingdom, New Zealand and Sweden. It is found that measurement errors have affected aggregate production or investment in Finland, United States, United Kingdom and Sweden. Specifically, it was found that overly optimistic statistics announcements are associated with higher output and vice versa.

Carbon dioxide and methane exchange between a boreal pristine lake and the atmosphere

Lakes serve as sites for terrestrially fixed carbon to be remineralized and transferred back to the atmosphere. Their role in regional carbon cycling is especially important in the Boreal Zone, where lakes can cover up to 20% of the land area. Boreal lakes are often characterized by the presence of a brown water colour, which implies high levels of dissolved organic carbon from the surrounding terrestrial ecosystem, but the load of inorganic carbon from the catchment is largely unknown. Organic carbon is transformed to methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) in biological processes that result in lake water gas concentrations that increase above atmospheric equilibrium, thus making boreal lakes as sources of these important greenhouse gases. However, flux estimates are often based on sporadic sampling and modelling and actual flux measurements are scarce. Thus, the detailed temporal flux dynamics of greenhouse gases are still largely unknown. ----- One aim here was to reveal the natural dynamics of CH4 and CO2 concentrations and fluxes in a small boreal lake. The other aim was to test the applicability of a measuring technique for CO2 flux, i.e. the eddy covariance (EC) technique, and a computational method for estimation of primary production and community respiration, both commonly used in terrestrial research, in this lake. Continuous surface water CO2 concentration measurements, also needed in free-water applications to estimate primary production and community respiration, were used over two open water periods in a study of CO2 concentration dynamics. Traditional methods were also used to measure gas concentration and fluxes. The study lake, Valkea-Kotinen, is a small, humic, headwater lake within an old-growth forest catchment with no local anthropogenic disturbance and thus possible changes in gas dynamics reflect the natural variability in lake ecosystems. CH4 accumulated under the ice and in the hypolimnion during summer stratification. The surface water CH4 concentration was always above atmospheric equilibrium and thus the lake was a continuous source of CH4 to the atmosphere. However, the annual CH4 fluxes were small, i.e. 0.11 mol m-2 yr-1, and the timing of fluxes differed from that of other published estimates. The highest fluxes are usually measured in spring after ice melt but in Lake Valkea-Kotinen CH4 was effectively oxidised in spring and highest effluxes occurred in autumn after summer stratification period. CO2 also accumulated under the ice and the hypolimnetic CO2 concentration increased steadily during stratification period. The surface water CO2 concentration was highest in spring and in autumn, whereas during the stable stratification it was sometimes under atmospheric equilibrium. It showed diel, daily and seasonal variation; the diel cycle was clearly driven by light and thus reflected the metabolism of the lacustrine ecosystem. However, the diel cycle was sometimes blurred by injection of hypolimnetic water rich in CO2 and the surface water CO2 concentration was thus controlled by stratification dynamics. The highest CO2 fluxes were measured in spring, autumn and during those hypolimnetic injections causing bursts of CO2 comparable with the spring and autumn fluxes. The annual fluxes averaged 77 (±11 SD) g C m-2 yr-1. In estimating the importance of the lake in recycling terrestrial carbon, the flux was normalized to the catchment area and this normalized flux was compared with net ecosystem production estimates of -50 to 200 g C m-2 yr-1 from unmanaged forests in corresponding temperature and precipitation regimes in the literature. Within this range the flux of Lake Valkea-Kotinen yielded from the increase in source of the surrounding forest by 20% to decrease in sink by 5%. The free water approach gave primary production and community respiration estimates of 5- and 16-fold, respectively, compared with traditional bottle incubations during a 5-day testing period in autumn. The results are in parallel with findings in the literature. Both methods adopted from the terrestrial community also proved useful in lake studies. A large percentage of the EC data was rejected, due to the unfulfilled prerequisites of the method. However, the amount of data accepted remained large compared with what would be feasible with traditional methods. Use of the EC method revealed underestimation of the widely used gas exchange model and suggests simultaneous measurements of actual turbulence at the water surface with comparison of the different gas flux methods to revise the parameterization of the gas transfer velocity used in the models.

GDNF family receptors in peripheral target innervation and hormone production

Glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF) family ligands: GDNF, neurturin, persephin and artemin, signal through a receptor tyrosine kinase Ret by binding first to a co-receptor (GFRα1-4) that is attached to the plasma membrane. The GDNF family factors can support the survival of various peripheral and central neuronal populations and have important functions also outside the nervous system, especially in kidney development. Activating mutations in the RET gene cause tumours in neuroendocrine cells, whereas inactivating mutations in RET are found in patients with Hirschsprung s disease (HSCR) characterized by loss of ganglionic cells along the intestine. The aim of this study was to examine the in vivo functions of neurturin receptor GFRα2 and persephin receptor GFRα4 using knockout (KO) mice. Mice lacking GFRα2 grow poorly after weaning and have deficits in parasympathetic and enteric innervation. This study shows that impaired secretion of the salivary glands and exocrine pancreas contribute to growth retardation in GFRα2-KO mice. These mice have a reduced number of intrapancreatic neurons and decreased cholinergic innervation of the exocrine pancreas as well as reduced excitatory fibres in the myenteric plexus of the small intestine. This study also demonstrates that GFRα2-mediated Ret signalling is required for target innervation and maintenance of soma size of sympathetic cholinergic neurons and sensory nociceptive IB4-binding neurons. Furthermore, lack of GFRα2 in mice results in deficient perception of temperatures above and below thermoneutrality and in attenuated inflammatory pain response. GFRα4 is co-expressed with Ret predominantly in calcitonin-producing thyroid C-cells in the mouse. In this study GFRα4-deficient mice were generated. The mice show no gross developmental deficits and have a normal number of C-cells. However, young but not adult mice lacking GFRα4 have a lower production of calcitonin in thyroid tissue and consequently, an increased bone formation rate. Thus, GFRα4/Ret signalling may regulate calcitonin production. In conclusion, this study reveals that GFRα2/Ret signalling is crucial for the development and function of specific components of the peripheral nervous system and that GFRα4-mediated Ret signalling is required for controlling transmitter synthesis in thyroid C-cells.

From environmental concerns towards sustainable food provisioning. : Material flow and food consumption scenario studies on sustainability of agri-food systems

Agriculture is an economic activity that heavily relies on the availability of natural resources. Through its role in food production agriculture is a major factor affecting public welfare and health, and its indirect contribution to gross domestic product and employment is significant. Agriculture also contributes to numerous ecosystem services through management of rural areas. However, the environmental impact of agriculture is considerable and reaches far beyond the agroecosystems. The questions related to farming for food production are, thus, manifold and of great public concern. Improving environmental performance of agriculture and sustainability of food production, sustainabilizing food production, calls for application of wide range of expertise knowledge. This study falls within the field of agro-ecology, with interphases to food systems and sustainability research and exploits the methods typical of industrial ecology. The research in these fields extends from multidisciplinary to interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary, a holistic approach being the key tenet. The methods of industrial ecology have been applied extensively to explore the interaction between human economic activity and resource use. Specifically, the material flow approach (MFA) has established its position through application of systematic environmental and economic accounting statistics. However, very few studies have applied MFA specifically to agriculture. The MFA approach was used in this thesis in such a context in Finland. The focus of this study is the ecological sustainability of primary production. The aim was to explore the possibilities of assessing ecological sustainability of agriculture by using two different approaches. In the first approach the MFA-methods from industrial ecology were applied to agriculture, whereas the other is based on the food consumption scenarios. The two approaches were used in order to capture some of the impacts of dietary changes and of changes in production mode on the environment. The methods were applied at levels ranging from national to sector and local levels. Through the supply-demand approach, the viewpoint changed between that of food production to that of food consumption. The main data sources were official statistics complemented with published research results and expertise appraisals. MFA approach was used to define the system boundaries, to quantify the material flows and to construct eco-efficiency indicators for agriculture. The results were further elaborated for an input-output model that was used to analyse the food flux in Finland and to determine its relationship to the economy-wide physical and monetary flows. The methods based on food consumption scenarios were applied at regional and local level for assessing feasibility and environmental impacts of relocalising food production. The approach was also used for quantification and source allocation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of primary production. GHG assessment provided, thus, a means of crosschecking the results obtained by using the two different approaches. MFA data as such or expressed as eco-efficiency indicators, are useful in describing the overall development. However, the data are not sufficiently detailed for identifying the hot spots of environmental sustainability. Eco-efficiency indicators should not be bluntly used in environmental assessment: the carrying capacity of the nature, the potential exhaustion of non-renewable natural resources and the possible rebound effect need also to be accounted for when striving towards improved eco-efficiency. The input-output model is suitable for nationwide economy analyses and it shows the distribution of monetary and material flows among the various sectors. Environmental impact can be captured only at a very general level in terms of total material requirement, gaseous emissions, energy consumption and agricultural land use. Improving environmental performance of food production requires more detailed and more local information. The approach based on food consumption scenarios can be applied at regional or local scales. Based on various diet options the method accounts for the feasibility of re-localising food production and environmental impacts of such re-localisation in terms of nutrient balances, gaseous emissions, agricultural energy consumption, agricultural land use and diversity of crop cultivation. The approach is applicable anywhere, but the calculation parameters need to be adjusted so as to comply with the specific circumstances. The food consumption scenario approach, thus, pays attention to the variability of production circumstances, and may provide some environmental information that is locally relevant. The approaches based on the input-output model and on food consumption scenarios represent small steps towards more holistic systemic thinking. However, neither one alone nor the two together provide sufficient information for sustainabilizing food production. Environmental performance of food production should be assessed together with the other criteria of sustainable food provisioning. This requires evaluation and integration of research results from many different disciplines in the context of a specified geographic area. Foodshed area that comprises both the rural hinterlands of food production and the population centres of food consumption is suggested to represent a suitable areal extent for such research. Finding a balance between the various aspects of sustainability is a matter of optimal trade-off. The balance cannot be universally determined, but the assessment methods and the actual measures depend on what the bottlenecks of sustainability are in the area concerned. These have to be agreed upon among the actors of the area

Urban ecosystem services at the plant-soil interface

Continuing urbanization is a crucial driver of land transformation, having widespread impacts on virtually all ecosystems. Terrestrial ecosystems, including disturbed ones, are dependent on soils, which provide a multitude of ecosystem services. As soils are always directly and/or indirectly impacted through land transformation, land cover change causes soil change. Knowledge of ecosystem properties and functions in soils is increasing in importance as humans continue to concentrate into already densely-populated areas. Urban soils often have hampered functioning due to various disturbances resulting from human activity. Innovative solutions are needed to bring the lacking ecosystem services and quality of life to these urban environments. For instance, the ecosystem services of the urban green infrastructure may be substantially improved through knowledge of their functional properties. In the research forming this thesis, the impacts of four plant species (Picea abies, Calluna vulgaris, Lotus corniculatus and Holcus lanatus) on belowground biota and regulatory ecosystem services were investigated in two different urban soil types. The retention of inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus in the plant-soil system, decomposition of plant litter, primary production, and the degradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were examined in the field and under laboratory conditions. The main objective of the research was to determine whether the different plant species (representing traits with varying litter decomposability) will give rise to dissimilar urban belowground communities with differing ecological functions. Microbial activity as well as the abundance of nematodes and enchytraeid worm biomass was highest below the legume L. corniculatus. L. corniculatus and the grass H. lanatus, producing labile or intermediate quality litter, enhanced the proportion of bacteria in the soil rhizosphere, while the recalcitrant litter-producing shrub C. vulgaris and the conifer P. abies stimulated the growth of fungi. The loss of nitrogen from the plant-soil system was small for H. lanatus and the combination of C. vulgaris + P. abies, irrespective of their energy channel composition. These presumably nitrogen-conservative plant species effectively diminished the leaching losses from the plant-soil systems with all the plant traits present. The laboratory experiment revealed a difference in N allocation between the plant traits: C. vulgaris and P. abies sequestered significantly more N in aboveground shoots in comparison to L. corniculatus and H. Lanatus. Plant rhizosphere effects were less clear for phosphorus retention, litter decomposition and the degradation of PAH compounds. This may be due to the relatively short experimental durations, as the maturation of the plant-soil system is likely to take a considerably longer time. The empirical studies of this thesis demonstrated that the soil communities rapidly reflect changes in plant coverage, and this has consequences for the functionality of soils. The energy channel composition of soils can be manipulated through plants, which was also supported by the results of the separate meta-analysis conducted in this thesis. However, further research is needed to understand the linkages between the biological community properties and ecosystem services in strongly human-modified systems.