Society by Numbers : Studies on Model-Based Explanations in the Social Sciences

The aim of this dissertation is to provide conceptual tools for the social scientist for clarifying, evaluating and comparing explanations of social phenomena based on formal mathematical models. The focus is on relatively simple theoretical models and simulations, not statistical models. These studies apply a theory of explanation according to which explanation is about tracing objective relations of dependence, knowledge of which enables answers to contrastive why and how-questions. This theory is developed further by delineating criteria for evaluating competing explanations and by applying the theory to social scientific modelling practices and to the key concepts of equilibrium and mechanism. The dissertation is comprised of an introductory essay and six published original research articles. The main theses about model-based explanations in the social sciences argued for in the articles are the following. 1) The concept of explanatory power, often used to argue for the superiority of one explanation over another, compasses five dimensions which are partially independent and involve some systematic trade-offs. 2) All equilibrium explanations do not causally explain the obtaining of the end equilibrium state with the multiple possible initial states. Instead, they often constitutively explain the macro property of the system with the micro properties of the parts (together with their organization). 3) There is an important ambivalence in the concept mechanism used in many model-based explanations and this difference corresponds to a difference between two alternative research heuristics. 4) Whether unrealistic assumptions in a model (such as a rational choice model) are detrimental to an explanation provided by the model depends on whether the representation of the explanatory dependency in the model is itself dependent on the particular unrealistic assumptions. Thus evaluating whether a literally false assumption in a model is problematic requires specifying exactly what is supposed to be explained and by what. 5) The question of whether an explanatory relationship depends on particular false assumptions can be explored with the process of derivational robustness analysis and the importance of robustness analysis accounts for some of the puzzling features of the tradition of model-building in economics. 6) The fact that economists have been relatively reluctant to use true agent-based simulations to formulate explanations can partially be explained by the specific ideal of scientific understanding implicit in the practise of orthodox economics.

Production of F4 Fimbrial Adhesin in Plants: a Model for Oral Porcine Vaccine against Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli

F4 fimbriae of enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) are highly stable multimeric structures with a capacity to evoke mucosal immune responses. With these characters F4 offer a unique model system to study oral vaccination against ETEC-induced porcine postweaning diarrhea. Postweaning diarrhea is a major problem in piggeries worldwide and results in significant economic losses. No vaccine is currently available to protect weaned piglets against ETEC infections. Transgenic plants provide an economically feasible platform for large-scale production of vaccine antigens for animal health. In this study, the capacity of transgenic plants to produce FaeG protein, the major structural subunit and adhesin of F4 fimbria, was evaluated. Using the model plant tobacco, the optimal subcellular location for FaeG accumulation was examined. Targeting of FaeG into chloroplasts offered a superior accumulation level of 1% of total soluble proteins (TSP) over the other investigated subcellular locations, namely, the endoplasmic reticulum and the apoplast. Moreover, we determined whether the FaeG protein, when isolated from its fimbrial background and produced in a plant cell, would retain the key properties of an oral vaccine, i.e. stability in gastrointestinal conditions, binding to porcine intestinal F4 receptors (F4R), and inhibition of the F4-possessing (F4+) ETEC attachment to F4R. The chloroplast-derived FaeG protein did show resistance against low pH and proteolysis in the simulated gastrointestinal conditions and was able to bind to the F4R, subsequently inhibiting the F4+ ETEC binding in a dose-dependent manner. To investigate the oral immunogenicity of FaeG protein, the edible crop plant alfalfa was transformed with the chloroplast-targeting construct and equally to tobacco plants, a high-yield FaeG accumulation of 1% of TSP was obtained. A similar yield was also obtained in the seeds of barley, a valuable crop plant, when the FaeG-encoding gene was expressed under an endosperm-specific promoter and subcellularly targeted into the endoplasmic reticulum. Furthermore, desiccated alfalfa plants and barley grains were shown to have a capacity to store FaeG protein in a stable form for years. When the transgenic alfalfa plants were administred orally to weaned piglets, slight F4-specific systemic and mucosal immune responses were induced. Co-administration of the transgenic alfalfa and the mucosal adjuvant cholera toxin enhanced the F4-specific immune response; the duration and number of F4+ E. coli excretion following F4+ ETEC challenge were significantly reduced as compared with pigs that had received nontransgenic plant material. In conclusion, the results suggest that transgenic plants producing the FaeG subunit protein could be used for production and delivery of oral vaccines against porcine F4+ ETEC infections. The findings here thus present new approaches to develop the vaccination strategy against porcine postweaning diarrhea.

Surveillance of Surgical Site Infections following Major Hip and Knee Surgery in Finland

Background and aims. Since 1999, hospitals in the Finnish Hospital Infection Program (SIRO) have reported data on surgical site infections (SSI) following major hip and knee surgery. The purpose of this study was to obtain detailed information to support prevention efforts by analyzing SIRO data on SSIs, to evaluate possible factors affecting the surveillance results, and to assess the disease burden of postoperative prosthetic joint infections in Finland. Methods. Procedures under surveillance included total hip (THA) and total knee arthroplasties (TKA), and the open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) of femur fractures. Hospitals prospectively collected data using common definitions and written protocol, and also performed postdischarge surveillance. In the validation study, a blinded retrospective chart review was performed and infection control nurses were interviewed. Patient charts of deep incisional and organ/space SSIs were reviewed, and data from three sources (SIRO, the Finnish Arthroplasty Register, and the Finnish Patient Insurance Centre) were linked for capture-recapture analyses. Results. During 1999-2002, the overall SSI rate was 3.3% after 11,812 orthopedic procedures (median length of stay, eight days). Of all SSIs, 56% were detected after discharge. The majority of deep incisional and organ/space SSIs (65/108, 60%) were detected on readmission. Positive and negative predictive values, sensitivity, and specificity for SIRO surveillance were 94% (95% CI, 89-99%), 99% (99-100%), 75% (56-93%), and 100% (97-100%), respectively. Of the 9,831 total joint replacements performed during 2001-2004, 7.2% (THA 5.2% and TKA 9.9%) of the implants were inserted in a simultaneous bilateral operation. Patients who underwent bilateral operations were younger, healthier, and more often males than those who underwent unilateral procedures. The rates of deep SSIs or mortality did not differ between bi- and uni-lateral THAs or TKAs. Four deep SSIs were reported following bilateral operations (antimicrobial prophylaxis administered 48-218 minutes before incision). In the three registers, altogether 129 prosthetic joint infections were identified after 13,482 THA and TKA during 1999-2004. After correction with the positive predictive value of SIRO (91%), a log-linear model provided an estimated overall prosthetic joint infection rate of 1.6% after THA and 1.3% after TKA. The sensitivity of the SIRO surveillance ranged from 36% to 57%. According to the estimation, nearly 200 prosthetic joint infections could occur in Finland each year (the average from 1999 to 2004) after THA and TKA. Conclusions. Postdischarge surveillance had a major impact on SSI rates after major hip and knee surgery. A minority of deep incisional and organ/space SSIs would be missed, however, if postdischarge surveillance by questionnaire was not performed. According to the validation study, most SSIs reported to SIRO were true infections. Some SSIs were missed, revealing some weakness in case finding. Variation in diagnostic practices may also affect SSI rates. No differences were found in deep SSI rates or mortality between bi- and unilateral THA and TKA. However, patient materials between these two groups differed. Bilateral operations require specific attention paid to their antimicrobial prophylaxis as well as to data management in the surveillance database. The true disease burden of prosthetic joint infections may be heavier than the rates from national nosocomial surveillance systems usually suggest.

Cox-2, tenascin, CRP, and ingraft chimerism in a model of post-transplant obliterative bronchiolitis

Chronic rejection in the form of obliterative bronchiolitis (OB) is the major cause of death 5 years after lung transplantation. The exact mechanism of OB remains unclear. This study focused on the role of cyclo-oxygenase (COX) -2, tenascin, and C-reactive protein (CRP) expression, and the occurrence of ingraft chimerism (= cells from two genetically distinct individuals in a same individual) in post-transplant OB development. In our porcine model, OB developed invariably in allografts, while autografts stayed patent. The histological changes were similar to those seen in human OB. In order to delay or prevent obliteration, animals were medicated according to certain protocol. In the beginning of the bronchial allograft reaction, COX-2 induction occurred in airway epithelial cells prior to luminal obliteration. COX-2 expression in macrophages and fibroblasts paralleled the onset of inflammation and fibroblast proliferation. This study demonstrated for the first time, that COX-2 expression is associated with the early stage of post- transplant obliterative airway disease. Tenascin expression in the respiratory epithelium appeared to be predictive of histologic features observed in human OB, and influx of immune cells. Expression in the bronchial wall and in the early obliterative lesions coincided with the onset of onset of fibroblast and inflammatory cell proliferation in the early stage of OB and was predictive of further influx of inflammatory and immune cells. CRP expression in the bronchial wall coincided with the remodelling process. High grade of bronchial wall CRP staining intensity predicted inflammation, accelerated fibroproliferation, and luminal obliteration, which are all features of OB. In the early obliterative plaque, majority of cells expressed CRP, but in mature, collagen-rich plaque, expression declined. Local CRP expression might be a response to inflammation and it might promote the development of OB. Early appearance of chimeric (= recipient-derived) cells in the graft airway epithelium predicted epithelial cell injury and obliteration of the bronchial lumen, which both are features of OB. Chimeric cells appeared in the airway epithelium after repair following transplantation-induced ischemic injury. Ingraft chimerism might be a mechanism to repair alloimmune-mediated tissue injury and to protect allografts from rejection after transplantation. The results of this study indicate, that COX-2, tenascin, CRP, and ingraft chimerism have a role in OB development. These findings increase the understanding of the mechanisms of OB, which may be beneficial in further development of diagnostic options.

Temperature-Sensitive Src-Transformed Mdck Cells nn 3d Cultures as a Model of Malignant Transformation of Epithelial Cells

The equilibrium between cell proliferation, differentiation, and apoptosis is crucial for maintaining homeostasis in epithelial tissues. In order for the epithelium to function properly, individual cells must gain normal structural and functional polarity. The junctional proteins have an important role both in binding the cells together and in taking part in cell signaling. Cadherins form adherens junctions. Cadherins initiate the polarization process by first recognizing and binding the neighboring cells together, and then guiding the formation of tight junctions. Tight junctions form a barrier in dividing the plasma membranes to apical and basolateral membrane domains. In glandular tissues, single layered and polarized epithelium is folded into tubes or spheres, in which the basal side of the epithelial layer faces the outer basal membrane, and the apical side the lumen. In carcinogenesis, the differentiated architecture of an epithelial layer is disrupted. Filling of the luminal space is a hallmark of early epithelial tumors in tubular and glandular structures. In order for the transformed tumor cells to populate the lumen, enhanced proliferation as well as inhibition of apoptosis is required. Most advances in cancer biology have been achieved by using two-dimensional (2D) cell culture models, in which the cells are cultured on flat surfaces as monolayers. However, the 2D cultures are limited in their capacity to recapitulate the structural and functional features of tubular structures and to represent cell growth and differentiation in vivo. The development of three-dimensional (3D) cell culture methods enables the cells to grow and to be studied in a more natural environment. Despite the wide use of 2D cell culture models and the development of novel 3D culture methods, it is not clear how the change of the dimensionality of culture conditions alters the polarization and transformation process and the molecular mechanisms behind them. Src is a well-known oncogene. It is found in focal and adherens junctions of cultured cells. Active src disrupts cell-cell junctions and interferes with cell-matrix binding. It promotes cell motility and survival. Src transformation in 2D disrupts adherens junctions and the fibroblastic phenotype of the cells. In 3D, the adherens junctions are weakened, and in glandular structures, the lumen is filled with nonpolarized vital cells. Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells are an epithelial cell type commonly used as a model for cell polarization. Its-src-transformed variants are useful model systems for analyzing the changes in cell morphology, and they play a role in src-induced malignant transformation. This study investigates src-transformed cells in 3D cell cultures as a model for malignant transformation. The following questions were posed. Firstly: What is the role of the composition and stiffness of the extracellular matrix (ECM) on the polarization and transformation of ts v-src MDCK cells in 3D cell cultures? Secondly: How do the culture conditions affect gene expression? What is the effect of v-src transformation in 2D and in 3D cell models? How does the shift from 2D to 3D affect cell polarity and gene expression? Thirdly: What is the role of survivin and its regulator phosphatase and tensin homolog protein (PTEN) in cell polarization and transformation, and in determining cell fate? How does their expression correlate with impaired mitochondrial function in transformed cells? In order to answer the above questions, novel methods of culturing and monitoring cells had to be created: novel 3D methods of culturing epithelial cells were engineered, enabling real time monitoring of a polarization and transformation process, and functional testing of 3D cell cultures. Novel 3D cell culture models and imaging techniques were created for the study. Attention was focused especially on confocal microscopy and live-cell imaging. Src-transformation disturbed the polarization of the epithelium by disrupting cell adhesion, and sensitized the cells to their environment. With active src, the morphology of the cell cluster depended on the composition and stiffness of the matrix. Gene expression studies revealed a broader impact of src transformation than mere continuous activity of src-kinase. In 2D cultures, src transformation altered the expression of immunological, actin cytoskeleton and extracellular matrix (ECM). In 3D, the genes regulating cell division, inhibition of apoptosis, cell metabolism, mitochondrial function, actin cytoskeleton and mechano-sensing proteins were altered. Surprisingly, changing the culture conditions from 2D to 3D affected also gene expression considerably. The microarray hit survivin, an inhibitor of apoptosis, played a crucial role in the survival and proliferation of src-transformed cells.