Uncertainty in forest simulators and forest planning systems

The forest simulator is a computerized model for predicting forest growth and future development as well as effects of forest harvests and treatments. The forest planning system is a decision support tool, usually including a forest simulator and an optimisation model, for finding the optimal forest management actions. The information produced by forest simulators and forest planning systems is used for various analytical purposes and in support of decision making. However, the quality and reliability of this information can often be questioned. Natural variation in forest growth and estimation errors in forest inventory, among other things, cause uncertainty in predictions of forest growth and development. This uncertainty stemming from different sources has various undesirable effects. In many cases outcomes of decisions based on uncertain information are something else than desired. The objective of this thesis was to study various sources of uncertainty and their effects in forest simulators and forest planning systems. The study focused on three notable sources of uncertainty: errors in forest growth predictions, errors in forest inventory data, and stochastic fluctuation of timber assortment prices. Effects of uncertainty were studied using two types of forest growth models, individual tree-level models and stand-level models, and with various error simulation methods. New method for simulating more realistic forest inventory errors was introduced and tested. Also, three notable sources of uncertainty were combined and their joint effects on stand-level net present value estimates were simulated. According to the results, the various sources of uncertainty can have distinct effects in different forest growth simulators. The new forest inventory error simulation method proved to produce more realistic errors. The analysis on the joint effects of various sources of uncertainty provided interesting knowledge about uncertainty in forest simulators.

Parameters Affecting the Extraction of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons with Pressurised Hot Water

Pressurised hot water extraction (PHWE) exploits the unique temperature-dependent solvent properties of water minimising the use of harmful organic solvents. Water is environmentally friendly, cheap and easily available extraction medium. The effects of temperature, pressure and extraction time in PHWE have often been studied, but here the emphasis was on other parameters important for the extraction, most notably the dimensions of the extraction vessel and the stability and solubility of the analytes to be extracted. Non-linear data analysis and self-organising maps were employed in the data analysis to obtain correlations between the parameters studied, recoveries and relative errors. First, pressurised hot water extraction (PHWE) was combined on-line with liquid chromatography-gas chromatography (LC-GC), and the system was applied to the extraction and analysis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in sediment. The method is of superior sensitivity compared with the traditional methods, and only a small 10 mg sample was required for analysis. The commercial extraction vessels were replaced by laboratory-made stainless steel vessels because of some problems that arose. The performance of the laboratory-made vessels was comparable to that of the commercial ones. In an investigation of the effect of thermal desorption in PHWE, it was found that at lower temperatures (200ºC and 250ºC) the effect of thermal desorption is smaller than the effect of the solvating property of hot water. At 300ºC, however, thermal desorption is the main mechanism. The effect of the geometry of the extraction vessel on recoveries was studied with five specially constructed extraction vessels. In addition to the extraction vessel geometry, the sediment packing style and the direction of water flow through the vessel were investigated. The geometry of the vessel was found to have only minor effect on the recoveries, and the same was true of the sediment packing style and the direction of water flow through the vessel. These are good results because these parameters do not have to be carefully optimised before the start of extractions. Liquid-liquid extraction (LLE) and solid-phase extraction (SPE) were compared as trapping techniques for PHWE. LLE was more robust than SPE and it provided better recoveries and repeatabilities than did SPE. Problems related to blocking of the Tenax trap and unrepeatable trapping of the analytes were encountered in SPE. Thus, although LLE is more labour intensive, it can be recommended over SPE. The stabilities of the PAHs in aqueous solutions were measured using a batch-type reaction vessel. Degradation was observed at 300ºC even with the shortest heating time. Ketones and quinones and other oxidation products were observed. Although the conditions of the stability studies differed considerably from the extraction conditions in PHWE, the results indicate that the risk of analyte degradation must be taken into account in PHWE. The aqueous solubilities of acenaphthene, anthracene and pyrene were measured, first below and then above the melting point of the analytes. Measurements below the melting point were made to check that the equipment was working, and the results were compared with those obtained earlier. Good agreement was found between the measured and literature values. A new saturation cell was constructed for the solubility measurements above the melting point of the analytes because the flow-through saturation cell could not be used above the melting point. An exponential relationship was found between the solubilities measured for pyrene and anthracene and temperature.

Towards the Use of Radar Winds in Numerical Weather Prediction

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models provide the basis for weather forecasting by simulating the evolution of the atmospheric state. A good forecast requires that the initial state of the atmosphere is known accurately, and that the NWP model is a realistic representation of the atmosphere. Data assimilation methods are used to produce initial conditions for NWP models. The NWP model background field, typically a short-range forecast, is updated with observations in a statistically optimal way. The objective in this thesis has been to develope methods in order to allow data assimilation of Doppler radar radial wind observations. The work has been carried out in the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) 3-dimensional variational data assimilation framework. Observation modelling is a key element in exploiting indirect observations of the model variables. In the radar radial wind observation modelling, the vertical model wind profile is interpolated to the observation location, and the projection of the model wind vector on the radar pulse path is calculated. The vertical broadening of the radar pulse volume, and the bending of the radar pulse path due to atmospheric conditions are taken into account. Radar radial wind observations are modelled within observation errors which consist of instrumental, modelling, and representativeness errors. Systematic and random modelling errors can be minimized by accurate observation modelling. The impact of the random part of the instrumental and representativeness errors can be decreased by calculating spatial averages from the raw observations. Model experiments indicate that the spatial averaging clearly improves the fit of the radial wind observations to the model in terms of observation minus model background (OmB) standard deviation. Monitoring the quality of the observations is an important aspect, especially when a new observation type is introduced into a data assimilation system. Calculating the bias for radial wind observations in a conventional way can result in zero even in case there are systematic differences in the wind speed and/or direction. A bias estimation method designed for this observation type is introduced in the thesis. Doppler radar radial wind observation modelling, together with the bias estimation method, enables the exploitation of the radial wind observations also for NWP model validation. The one-month model experiments performed with the HIRLAM model versions differing only in a surface stress parameterization detail indicate that the use of radar wind observations in NWP model validation is very beneficial.

Estimation of local forest attributes, utilizing two-phase sampling and auxiliary data

This thesis examines the feasibility of a forest inventory method based on two-phase sampling in estimating forest attributes at the stand or substand levels for forest management purposes. The method is based on multi-source forest inventory combining auxiliary data consisting of remote sensing imagery or other geographic information and field measurements. Auxiliary data are utilized as first-phase data for covering all inventory units. Various methods were examined for improving the accuracy of the forest estimates. Pre-processing of auxiliary data in the form of correcting the spectral properties of aerial imagery was examined (I), as was the selection of aerial image features for estimating forest attributes (II). Various spatial units were compared for extracting image features in a remote sensing aided forest inventory utilizing very high resolution imagery (III). A number of data sources were combined and different weighting procedures were tested in estimating forest attributes (IV, V). Correction of the spectral properties of aerial images proved to be a straightforward and advantageous method for improving the correlation between the image features and the measured forest attributes. Testing different image features that can be extracted from aerial photographs (and other very high resolution images) showed that the images contain a wealth of relevant information that can be extracted only by utilizing the spatial organization of the image pixel values. Furthermore, careful selection of image features for the inventory task generally gives better results than inputting all extractable features to the estimation procedure. When the spatial units for extracting very high resolution image features were examined, an approach based on image segmentation generally showed advantages compared with a traditional sample plot-based approach. Combining several data sources resulted in more accurate estimates than any of the individual data sources alone. The best combined estimate can be derived by weighting the estimates produced by the individual data sources by the inverse values of their mean square errors. Despite the fact that the plot-level estimation accuracy in two-phase sampling inventory can be improved in many ways, the accuracy of forest estimates based mainly on single-view satellite and aerial imagery is a relatively poor basis for making stand-level management decisions.

Time Dimension in Consumers’ Image Construction Processes: Introducing Image Heritage and Image-in-use

This paper focuses on the time dimension in consumers’ image construction processes. Two new concepts are introduced to cover past consumer experiences about the company – image heritage, and the present image construction process - image-in-use. Image heritage and image-in-use captures the dynamic, relational, social, and contextual features of corporate image construction processes. Qualitative data from a retailing context were collected and analysed following a grounded theory approach. The study demonstrates that consumers’ corporate images have long roots in past experiences. Understanding consumers’ image heritage provides opportunities for understanding how consumers might interpret management initiatives and branding activities in the present.

Governmental rationalities and the local dimension of European politics. A study of the Interreg IV programme "Alpenrhein-Bodensee-Hochrhein"

The thesis aims at investigating the local dimension of the EU cohesion policy through the utilization of an alternative approach, which aims at the analysis of discourse and structures of power. The concrete case under analysis is the Interreg IV programme “Alpenrhein-Bodensee-Hochrhein”, which is conducted in the border region between Germany, Switzerland, Austria and the principality of Liechtenstein. The main research question is stated as such: What governmental rationalities can be found at work in the field of EU cross-border cooperation programmes? How is directive action and cooperation envisioned? How coherent are the different rationalities, which are found at work? The theoretical framework is based on a Foucaultian understanding of power and discourse and utilizes the notion of governmentalities as a way to de-stabilize the understanding of directive action and in order to highlight the dispersed and heterogeneous nature of governmental activity. The approach is situated within the general field of research on the European Union connected to basic conceptualisations such as the nature of power, the role of discourse and modes of subjectification. An approach termed “analytics of government”, based on the work of researchers like Mitchell Dean is introduced as the basic framework for the analysis. Four dimensions (visiblities, subjectivities, techniques/practices, problematisations) are presented as a set of tools with which governmental regimes of practices can be analysed. The empirical part of the thesis starts out with a discussion of the general framework of the European Union's cohesion policy and places the Interreg IV Alpenrhein-Bodensee-Hochrhein programme in this general context. The main analysis is based on eleven interviews which were conducted with different individuals, participating in the programme on different levels. The selection of interview partners aimed at maximising heterogeneity through including individuals from all parts of the programme region, obtaining different functions within the programme. The analysis reveals interesting aspects pertaining to the implementation and routine aspects of work within initiatives conducted under the heading of the EU cohesion policy. The central aspects of an Interreg IV Alpenrhein-Bodensee-Hochrhein – governmentality are sketched out. This includes a positive perception of the work atmosphere, administrative/professional characterisation of the selves and a de-politicization of the programme. Characteristic is the experience of tensions by interview partners and the use of discoursive strategies to resolve them. Negative perceptions play an important role for the specific governmental rationality. The thesis contributes to a better understanding of the local dimension of the European Union cohesion policy and questions established ways of thinking about governmental activity. It provides an insight into the working of power mechanisms in the constitution of fields of discourse and points out matters of practical importance as well as subsequent research questions.